MLB Preview: Miami Marlins (54-48) at Tampa Bay Rays (62-42)

MIAMI MARLINS NOTES:

MARLINS MINUTE
The Marlins today play the second game of a brief two-game set and road trip to St. Petersburg to face the Rays. Following today’s game, have an off day on Thursday before returning to action on Friday at home vs. Detroit as the team starts a seven-game homestand that also features Philadelphia.

FISH BYTES

• The Marlins are off to their 3rd-best start to a season through the club’s first 102 games (54-48, .529). The only better starts came in 1997 (58-44, .569) and 2016 (55-47, .539).
• Miami ranks 4th in MLB with a .263 AVG trailing only TEX (.273), ATL (.267) and BOS (.266). Ranked 27th last year.
• Have recorded 41 games this season in which they collected 10+ hits in a game, tied with Atlanta for the 2nd-most in the NL behind St. Louis (43).
• The Marlins pitching staff leads the National League with 964 strikeouts.

QUICK TURN
Today’s game marks the third time this season the Marlins are playing a game in the 12pm hour immediately following a night game (also April 27 at ATL – W, May 10 at ARI – W, and June 21 vs. TOR – L), going 2-1 in the 3 previous contests.

YESTERDAY’S RECAP
Miami dropped the series opener at Tampa Bay, 4-1. Collected just 2 hits – singles by CF Jesus Sanchez (1×3) and LF Jon Berti (1×3). RHP Edward Cabrera lasted just 2.0 innings before exiting with a blister, allowing 3 runs on 4 hits. RHP George Soriano provided 3.1 innings of relief, holding the Rays to just 1 run.

NATIONAL INTERN DAY
Tomorrow is National Intern Day. Shout out to Marlins Communications Intern Abner “Abs” Perez for his great contributions to our daily game notes!

TIME TO SNAP THE SKID
The Marlins have lost their last 10 road games, including an 0-6 trip their previous time away from Miami, July 14-19, to Baltimore and St. Louis. The current slide is the team’s longest since a franchise-record 15 consecutive road losses from Aug. 3-Sept. 1, 2019.

SOUR ORANGES The Marlins have lost their last 8 games against the Rays and 11 of the last 12 contests between the two teams. Miami has dropped its last 7 games at Tropicana Field and 11 of the last 12 dating back to July 2018.

UP THE CHARTS
RHP Sandy Alcantara continues to move up the Marlins’ all-time rankings. In addition to the charts to the right, his next win ties him with Jose Fernandez (38) for the 9th most in franchise history. Today’s start ties him with A.J. Burnett (131) for the 7th-most GS by a Marlins pitcher.

CHAMPS x2!
Sunday was a great day in Miami with a walk-off win, but it was just as incredible in St. Petersburg where the Marlins NIKE RBI All-Stars claimed the Southeast Regional Championships in the Baseball Junior division and Softball division. The softball team is now back-to-back regional champs, and our juniors claimed their first regional championship since 2019. Both teams now advance to the MLB NIKE RBI World Series in Vero Beach, Fla at the Jackie Robinson Complex.

ONE DAY AT A TIME
With their 3-2 win on Sunday, Miami improved to 22-9 in one-run games this season – the highest winning percentage in one-run games this season and tied with Cincinnati for the most such wins among MLB teams.

• Miami played 64 games decided by one run last year, going 24-40 and recording the most one-run losses in a season since the 1975 Astros (41).

LA REGADERA
2B Luis Arraez leads MLB with his .375 AVG (139×371), .423 OBP, and 139 hits. • Is hitting .467 (35×75) with RISP, also the best mark among qualifiers.

• Marks the most hits and highest AVG by a Marlin through his first 96 games of a season. Looks to become the 1st player to record at least 150 hits before playing 100 games in a season since Ichiro in 2009 with Seattle.
• His 39 multi-hit games are tied for 2nd most in MLB. Has a Major League-most 14 games of at least 3 hits. Owns 6 games with at least 4 hits this year, most in the Majors and most ever by a Marlins player in a single season.
• Is one of only 6 batters since 1990 to hit .375 or higher through his team’s first 102 gms of a season and the first since Nomar Garciaparra in 2000 (.389).

BERTI BALL
UTL Jon Berti has gone 11×21 (.524) in 8 games since the All-Star Break, including back-to-back 3-hit games on July 18 and 19 at St. Louis. Has hit safely in each of the last 8 games and 14 of his last 19 starts, including 7 multi-hit games.

TIGHT SHIP
Marlins infielders have combined for a .988 fielding position in 2023, committing just 24 errors in 1,955 total chances. Marks the 2nd-best fielding pct. by an infield in the Majors behind the Padres (.991).

SECOND TIME’S THE CHARM
The Marlins last night fell to 13-20 in the first game of a series this season. Have rebounded to go 19-13 in Game 2 of a series. Additionally, are 10-5 (.667) in games played on Wednesday – their best winning pct. for any day of the week. Have won 8 of their last 10 Wednesday games.

TODAY’S STARTER – #22 SANDY ALCANTARA

• The reigning NL Cy Young Sandy Alcantara will make his 21st start of the season today. Will mark his fifth career start against the Tampa Bay Rays.
• Last faced Tampa Bay on September 25, 2021 at Tropicana Field. Tossed 6.0 innings and
  allowed 3 runs on 9 hits with 6 strikeouts.
• In 6 Interleague starts this season, has gone 2-2 with a 2.93 ERA (43.0/14) and 32 strikeouts.
• In his most recent start at St. Louis on July 19, allowed 4 runs on 8 hits and 2 walks over 6.0 innings. Struck out 7. All 4 runs came in the first inning.
• Ranks fourth among NL pitchers with 7 starts of 7.0+ IP (behind SF’s Logan Webb – 11, ARI’s Zac Gallen – 9, and PHI’s Aaron Nola – 8).
• Has 834.0 IP w/ Marlins (5th on Marlins all-time list behind A.J. Burnett – 853.2). Is just the sixth player with 800+ innings pitched as a Marlin.
• Through 20 starts in 2023 has a 3-9 record, with a 4.70 ERA (126.1/66), 106 SO, and 14 HR. Through 20 starts in 2022 had a 9-4 record, with a 1.81 ERA (144.1/29), 133 SO, and 7 HR.
• In 11 starts away this season has a 2-5 record with a 4.91 ERA (66.0/36) and is holding opponents to a .277 AVG (72×260). In 9 starts at home has a 1-4 record with a 4.48 ERA (60.1/30) and is holding opponents to a .241 AVG (54×224).
• Left-handed batters are hitting .272 (68×250) vs. Alcantara in 2023 with 8 home runs and a .764 OPS while right-handed batters are hitting .248 (58×234) with 6 home runs and a .662 OPS.
• In 2022, became the first Cy Young winner in Club history. Won Baseball Digest’s MLB Pitcher of the Year Award.

TAMPA BAY RAYS NOTES:

BACK ON TRACK — Tampa Bay earned its seventh consecutive home victory over Miami with last night’s win, taking the series opener in a 4-1 final…RHP Tyler Glasnow received the win after tossing a season-high-tying 7.0 innings, allowing one run on two hits and two walks with eight strikeouts…2B Brandon Lowe (3-for-4, HR, 2R) matched a season high with three hits (also 4/27 at CWS)…1B Yandy Díaz (1-for-2, 2B, 2RBI) left the contest in the third inning due to left groin tightness.

Tampa Bay improved to 19-2 (.905) against Miami since the beginning of the 2019 season…it marks the best winning pct. by any team against a single opponent in MLB during that stretch (min. 10G), ahead of Houston’s 13-3 (.813) mark over Colorado.

It marked the second time in his career that Glasnow has thrown 7.0+ innings in consecutive starts (3GS – 5/26-6/8, 2021).

JUMBLED UP IN JULY — The Rays are 5-14 (.263) in July after entering the month with the league’s best record at 57-28 (.671)…it marks the second-worst record in the majors during that stretch, ahead of only Pittsburgh (5-15, .250)…Tampa Bay has not been shut out in July, but it has scored three or fewer runs 11 times, including five games with just one run. Ê In 19 games this month, Randy Arozarena is slashing .181/.221/.306 (13-for-72) with one double, one triple, 2 HR, 5 RBI and 22 strikeouts against four walks.

Wander Franco has also made 19 appearances in July and is slashing .171/.253/.286 (12-for-70) with two doubles, 2 HR, 7 RBI and 17 strikeouts against seven walks.

Josh Lowe is slashing .174/.235/.283 (8-for-46) with one triple, one HR, 4 RBI and 20 strikeouts against four walks across 16 July games.

Harold Ramírez has made 13 appearances this month and is slashing .182/.282/.212 (6-for-33) with one double and 2 RBI.

The Rays rank at the bottom of the AL during July in runs per game (3.42), batting average (.213), on-base pct. (.280) and OPS (.647)…the club record for lowest team batting average over a full calendar month is .222, done twice (Sept./Oct. 2020 & June 2012)…the 2020 Rays hit .215 in July, but played only seven games during
the month.

According to Elias, the lowest winning percentage in July for a team that entered the month leading their respective league (AL or NL) belongs to the 1995 Philadelphia Phillies, who posted a 9-20 (.310) July after entering the month at 38-21 (.644) during the strike-shortened 1995 campaign.

LET’S JUST REWIND — Prior to July, Tampa Bay hit .293 with runners in scoring position, the second-highest AVG in the majors behind Texas (.307)…in 19 games since,
the Rays are batting .206 with RISP, the second-lowest AVG in the majors behind San Francisco (.171).

In 16 games since 7/5, Tampa Bay is 21-for-112 (.188) with eight extra-base hits (6 2B, 2 HR) with RISP.

LIMITED JUICE AT THE TROP — Rays batters are slashing .209/.284/.337 in their last 13 home games since 6/24, averaging 3.31 runs per game…in its previous 13 home games from 5/26-6/23, they slashed .294/.357/.477 and averaged 6.62 runs per game.

MULTI-HIT MACHINE — Yandy Díaz has 12 games with 3+ hits, tied with LAA Shohei Ohtani and CLE Amed Rosario for second most in the AL, trailing only TOR Bo Bichette
(13G)…his 31 multi-hit games overall are tied for seventh most in the AL.

Díaz is one of four players in Rays franchise history to have 12 games with 3+ hits through the club’s first 104 games, joining Randy Winn (14G in 2002), Carl Crawford (13G in 2004) and Julio Lugo (12G in 2005).

MARLIN MASHERS — In 14 games against Miami, Yandy Díaz is batting .370 (17-for-46) with five doubles, 9 RBI and nine runs scored.

In 32 matchups against the Marlins, Manuel Margot is slashing .313/.376/.485 (31-for-99) with five doubles, three triples, 2 HR, 7 RBI and 10 walks against 10 strikeouts.

Former Marlin Harold Ramírez has hit safely four of five games against Miami, going 8-for-20 (.400) with two doubles, 2 HR and 5 RBI.

WHAT A RELIEF — Tampa Bay relievers have posted a 2.98 ERA (184.1IP, 61ER) since the beginning of June, the best mark in the AL and second best in the majors behind Atlanta (2.89) during that time.

During that timeframe, LHP Jake Diekman has pitched to a 0.59 ERA (15.1IP, 1ER) in 19 appearances while RHP Kevin Kelly has posted a 1.53 ERA (17.2IP, 3ER) across 15 appearances…RHP Jason Adam has made 19 appearances since 6/1 and owns a 1.93 ERA (18.2IP, 4ER) during that stretch.

INTERLEAGUE TALK — Tampa Bay is 19-15 (.559) in Interleague play, the third-best mark in the AL behind Toronto (21-10, .677) and Houston (21-16, .568)…the Rays went 9-1 against NL clubs to begin the season, outscoring opponents 65-27 (+38) while pitching to a 2.43 ERA (89.0IP, 24ER)…Tampa Bay has gone 10-14 (.417) in 24 games since, posting a +4 run differential (97-93) while recording a 3.52 ERA (212.1IP, 83ER).

POWER SURGE — Jose Siri’s 18 homers since the beginning of May are third most in the AL in that stretch behind LAA Shohei Ohtani (29HR) and CWS Luis Robert Jr. (23HR), and are tied for 10th most in the majors.

Among players with 200 at-bats, only Ohtani (10.39) has a better AB/HR ratio than Siri’s 11.00.

Despite his home run production, Siri’s 40.9% whiff rate and 34.2% strikeout rate rank in the bottom first and third percentile among MLB batters, respectively.

FIGHTING THE FISH — Tampa Bay and Miami conclude a two-game set this afternoon at Tropicana Field…the Rays swept the four-game season series with the Marlins in 2022, taking two games at Tropicana Field from 5/24-25 and two at LoanDepot Park from 8/30-31.

Tampa Bay has won seven straight home games over Miami dating back to 9/6/20 and taken 11 of 12 from the Marlins at Tropicana Field since 7/22/18…it the longest home winning streak against Miami in club history.

The Rays are 30-11 (.732) against the Marlins since manager Kevin Cash took over in 2015…it is the second-best winning pct. by any club against Miami during that stretch, trailing only Toronto (13-4, .765).

The Rays are 19-2 against the Marlins dating back to 5/14/19, outscoring Miami 105- 59 (+46)…during the 21-game stretch, Rays pitching has posted a 2.46 ERA (190.0IP, 51ER), while Tampa Bay batters have produced a .260/.332/.453 line with 76 XBH.

TODAY’S STARTER: RHP ZACH EFLIN (11-5, 3.36)

TODAY’S START — The right-hander makes his 20th start of the season, including his 12th at home…paces the majors in WHIP (0.99) while ranking ninth in the AL in ERA (3.36)…has allowed three or fewer earned runs in each of his 11 starts at Tropicana Field, pitching to a 2.10 ERA (68.2IP, 16ER) with 72 strikeouts against just seven walks (10.29 SO/BB)… is just 16 strikeouts shy of his single-season career high (129SO in 2019).

LAST TIME OUT — Retired 21 of the 24 batters he faced over 7.0 scoreless frames in Tampa Bay’s 3-0 shutout victory over Baltimore on 7/21 (7.0IP, 2H, 0R, BB, 8SO)…allowed only one runner to advance into scoring position (Ryan Mountcastle 2nd inn. double)…picked up his MLB-high tying 11th victory of the season, improving to 10-1 at Tropicana Field… it marked his second scoreless start of 7.0+ innings this season (also 5/4 vs. PIT).

FISH FLOPS — In 16 career games (15GS) against Miami, Eflin is 5-7 with a 4.97 ERA (88.2IP, 49ER)…made three appearances (2GS) opposite the Marlins in 2022 as a member of Philadelphia, going 0-1 with a 6.55 ERA (11.0IP, 8ER) while allowing Marlins hitters to go 5-for-8 (.625) with RISP… has a five-game losing streak against Miami since the beginning of 2020, allowing a .291/.331/.520 (37-for-127) line to Marlins hitters over seven games (6GS) in that span…the Phillies went 0-6 in his starts against Miami from 2020-22.

Has gone 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA (12.0IP, 4ER) and 0.67 WHIP in two starts against NL East clubs this season, but has a 7.34 ERA (34.1IP, 28ER) in his last seven starts against the division.

Eflin is 3-2 with a 2.80 ERA (45.0IP, 14ER) in seven Interleague starts in 2023, six of which were quality…ranks among MLB leaders in Interleague play (min. 40.0IP) in WHIP (1st, 0.73), SO/BB ratio (1st, 16.33), opp. OPS (2nd, .503), opp. AVG (3rd, .186) and ERA (6th).

NO PLACE LIKE HOME — Eflin is one of four pitchers in the Expansion Era (since 1961) to earn a win in 10 of his first 11 home starts with a club, joining NYY Orlando Hernández (10-1, 1998-99), CHC Rick Sutcliffe (10-0, 1984- 85) and SF Billy Pierce (11-0, 1962)…with a win today, he would join Pierce (12-0), PHI Dutch Leonard (11-1, 1947) and NYY Johnny Allen (11-0, 1932- 33) as the only pitchers in MLB history (since 1901) to earn a win in at least 11 of their first 12 home starts with a franchise.

Eflin’s 2.10 ERA at Tropicana Field is the lowest through any pitcher’s first 11 home starts with the Rays in club history, ahead of Matt Garza (2.47 in 2008).

Min. 50.0 IP, Eflin ranks among MLB leaders at home in wins (1st, 10), WHIP (1st, 0.80), walk rate (2nd, 2.7%), SO/BB ratio (2nd, 10.29), ERA (3rd) and opponent OPS (3rd, .527).

His 5.36 ERA on the road is 3.26 runs higher than his home mark, the second-largest discrepancy between a qualified AL pitcher’s home and road ERAs behind only TOR Chris Bassitt (3.39: 2.24 at home, 5.63 as visitor).

QUALITY CONTROL — Eflin’s 7.06 SO/BB ratio ranks second in the majors (min. 100.0IP), trailing only SEA George Kirby (9.33)…he has issued just one walk in his last five starts since 6/28 (7/21 vs. BAL – Adley Rutschman in 6th inn.), posting a 0.9 pct. walk rate in that span, second lowest in MLB (min. 100BF) behind COL Austin Gomber (0.8%)…during that timeframe, Eflin has not had a single 3-0 count and has had only two 3-1 counts.

He has walked two or fewer batters in each of his last 22 starts since 6/14/22, tied with LAD Noah Syndergaard for the second-longest active streak in MLB behind KC Zack Greinke (23GS)…Eflin has issued two or fewer walks in 55 of his last 56 starts dating back to 8/29/2020.

Since the beginning of 2021, his 3.9 pct. walk rate is the lowest in the majors (min. 1,100BF), outpacing Greinke (4.6%).

A LITTLE HELP? — The Rays, who are 14-5 in Eflin’s starts, won 10 of his first 11 outings while providing him with 7.70 runs of support per 9.0 IP from the beginning of the season through 6/6…it marked the second-highest run support average in the majors in that span (min. 60.0IP), behind only TEX Martín Pérez (9.13).

Tampa Bay is 4-4 in his last eight starts since 6/12, recording a 3.74 RSA in that timeframe, the 10th-lowest mark by any AL pitcher (min. 35.0IP)…has received zero runs of support in five of his last eight starts since 6/12.