Sunday, October 20, 2024
Fantasy Guru - Baseball

MLB Preview: Kansas City Royals (5-17) at Arizona Diamondbacks (12-11)

KANSAS CITY ROYALS NOTES:

GETAWAY DAY GETS AWAY: In their 1st rubber game of the season, the Royals suffered a 4-3 loss to the Angels yesterday in Anaheim, falling to 1-2 to complete the first leg of this three-city, 10-game trip…the game featured 6 solo home runs—including 3 by each team—and the difference was a manufactured run off Jordan Lyles in the 1st inning, when the Angels began the frame with a walk, a rule-book double and a sacrifice fly… Vinnie Pasquantino broke a 1-1 tie in the 6th with a solo home run, the 14th homer of his young career, 9 of which have given the Royals a lead…heading into the bottom half with a 2-1 lead, Lyles had retired 15 of his last 16 batters, but within a span of 9 pitches, the top of the Angels lineup—Taylor Ward, Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani—hit back-to-back-to-back home runs, turning that 2-1 lead into a 4-2 deficit…Bobby Witt Jr. halved the deficit with a solo shot in the 7th, but Angels relievers retired the next seven batters to secure the Royals fate.

MJ Melendez, who homered in the 1st inning yesterday, exited in the 4th with lower back tightness.

Freddy Fermin singled in the 3rd inning yesterday off Reid Detmers for his 1st career hit.

ROSTER MOVE: Prior to tonight’s series-opening game in Arizona, the Royals reinstated Franmil Reyes from the Paternity List…Reyes and his wife, Marian, welcomed their sixth child late last week…in a corresponding move, infielder Nate Eaton was optioned to Triple-A Omaha.

After starting the season 2-for-20 with both hits going for home runs, Reyes has recorded 4 multi-hit efforts in his last 6 games, a stretch in which he’s batting .409 (9-for-22) and all 9 hits have been singles.

TROUBLE WITH THE LONG BALL: Yesterday marked the first time the Royals have allowed back-to-back-to-back home runs in 12 years, since Sean O’Sullivan yielded 3 consecutive homers in the 2nd inning to Texas’ Mitch Moreland, Mike Napoli and Endy Chavez on May 28, 2011 in a 10-1 Royals loss…Royals pitchers have now allowed at least 1 home run in 14 consecutive games—a stretch in which they’ve yielded 27 HR—their longest such run since Aug. 20-Sept. 11, 2017, when they allowed a homer in a franchise-record 21 consecutive games.

FEWER FREEBIES: Royals pitchers issued only 3 walks to the 104 batters they faced during the 3-game series in Anaheim, lowering their season walk rate to 8.0%, which is tied with Texas for the 7th-best mark in the Majors, and represents a significant improvement over last season, when the Royals ranked 29th in the Majors with a 9.4% walk rate…the Royals issued just 1 walk yesterday to mark their 6th game this season with 1 walk or fewer allowed, which is tied for the 3rd-most such games in the Majors this season, trailing only the Giants (8) and Twins (8)…the Royals had only 29 such games for the entire 2022 season, which ranked tied for 23rd.

PASQUATCH SIGHTING: Vinnie Pasquantino gave Kansas City a brief lead yesterday with a go-ahead solo home run in the 6th inning, the 14th homer of his young career and the 9th that gave the Royals a lead…it was his 2nd hit of the game, extending his on-base streak to 17 games, which is tied for the 3rdlongest active streak in the American League, trailing only Yordan Alvarez (24) and Eugenio Suárez (19)… this marks the 2nd-longest on-base streak of his career, trailing a 21-game run from Sept. 15, 2022-April 1, 2023…including that streak, Vinnie has reached safely in 39 of his last 41 games dating back to last Sept. 15.

In 41 games since Sept. 15, 2022, Pasquantino leads the American League (min. 150 PA) in average (.336) and on-base percentage (.429)…including NL players, his average ranks 3rd in the Majors behind Brandon Nimmo (.365) and Bryan De La Cruz (.357) and his on-base percentage trails only Nimmo (.470).

SNAKE STORIES: The Royals are visiting Chase Field for the second time in as many seasons, after they had only three visits prior to 2022 and none since 2014…the Royals are 14-17 all-time vs. the Diamondbacks but are 7-4 (.636) at Chase Field, which is tied with Toronto for the 2nd-best win percentage in this ballpark, trailing only Seattle’s 14-7 record (.667)…despite their success here historically, the Royals were swept in a 2-game set here last May after blowing leads of 4-0 in the 1st game and 6-3 in the 2nd game, to mark their first series loss here.

The Royals are seeking their 1st win in this park since Aug. 7, 2014, when they completed a 3-game sweep.

In 31 games vs. Arizona, they have hit .288, their 2nd-best mark vs. any opponent, behind Colorado (.298).

Tonight marks the Royals return to the Valley, where they went 20-11-1 this spring, including an exhibition game vs. Great Britain…their 19-13-1 record (.594) in Cactus League play finished 2nd to the 18-11-2 Angels (.621), and their 19 wins in the state of Arizona this year trail only the hometown Diamondbacks, who have won 22 games, including Spring Training (16) and the regular season (6).

Royals pitchers Brad Keller and Taylor Clarke were both drafted by the D-backs…Keller was selected in the 8th round of the 2013 Draft and Clarke was selected in the 3rd round in 2015…Keller was acquired by the Royals from the Reds, who selected him from the D-backs in the 2017 Rule 5 Draft…Clarke spent his first three seasons in the Majors with Arizona, but was non-tendered following 2021 and signed with the Royals.

Zack Greinke spent four seasons with the Diamondbacks from 2016-19, a stretch in which he won four Rawlings Gold Glove Awards, was a three-time NL All-Star and went 55-29 with a 3.40 ERA in 114 starts.

TRIP TRACKER: The Royals will continue this three-city road trip tonight in Phoenix with the 1st of 3 games vs. the Diamondbacks…this trip began last Friday night in Anaheim, where they dropped 2 of 3 to start a stretch in which they’ll play 26 games in 27 days through May 17…the only off day during this run will come on May 1, which sits between the end of this season-long 10-game trip and a season-long 10-game homestand.

This trip will wrap up the month of April with 4 games in Minnesota vs. the Twins beginning Thursday night.

Friday night’s game began stretch in which the Royals will play 19 of 29 games on the road through May 21.

APRIL SHOWERS: The month of April has not been kind to the Royals in recent years, and that trend has continued this season…including their Opening Day loss on March 30, the Royals are 5-17 through 22 games, which matches their 2nd-worst 22-game start in franchise history, better only than the 1992 Royals, who started 3-19…the schedule makers haven’t done the Royals any favors either, as their six opponents to this point have a combined record of 72-58 (.554), and three of those six teams are in 1st place in their division…unfortunately, the schedule doesn’t ease up much anytime soon, as the two remaining opponents on this road trip are in 1st place, including Arizona (12-11, tied with the Dodgers) and Minnesota (12-10).

PACE OF PLAY: There have been 305 9-inning games in the Majors this season, and the average game time has been 2 hours, 36 minutes, with only 27 of those 276 games (9.8%) lasting at least 3 hours…the Royals 22 games this season—including 1 that required extra innings—have averaged 2 hours, 27 minutes, which is 9 minutes below the league average and is the fastest average time in the Majors this season, ahead of the Twins, whose average is 2:30.

TONIGHT’S STARTERS: RHP BRAD KELLER (2-2, 3.00)
BRAD KELLER will make his 5th start of the season—and 110th start of his career—tonight vs. Arizona at Chase Field…this marks his 1st career start against Diamondbacks, who will become the 26th different opponent Brad has faced in his career…he’s in his sixth Major League season after being acquired by Kansas City in a trade with Cincinnati, who selected him from Arizona in the 2017 Rule 5 Draft.

WILD THING: Brad suffered his 2nd loss of the season last Tuesday night after allowing 3 runs on 3 hits and a career-high-tying 5 walks in 4.0 innings of a 12-2 Royals defeat to the Rangers in Kansas City…he allowed the leadoff batter to reach in each of the first 3 innings, but the leadoff man only scored in the 3rd when Brad Miller led off with a walk and eventually scored the game-tying run on a Travis Jankowski RBI single…with 1 out in the 4th, he issued back-to-back walks followed by an RBI single from Ezequiel Duran, after which another run scored on a fielder’s choice, and he exited after 4.0 innings in a 3-2 deficit in favor of Jose Cuas.

Induced 2 double plays to help escape jams in both the 2nd and 3rd innings, marking the second time he’s induced multiple double plays in 4 starts this season, a feat he accomplished just three times in 22 overall starts last year.

His 5 walks matched a career high, done eight other times and most recently on July 22, 2022 vs. the Rays, a game in which he also pitched only 4.0 innings.

DECISIONS, DECISIONS: With a loss in his start last Tuesday vs. Texas, Keller extended his streak of starts with a decision to 19—in which he’s 7-12—which is the longest run of starts with a decision by a Royal since Tim Belcher earned a decision in 21 consecutive starts from Sept. 2, 1996-June 20, 1997…it’s the longest streak in the Majors since Jacob deGrom had 20 straight starts with a decision for the Mets from May 19-Sept. 5, 2017, and the longest in the American League since Hisashi Iwakuma had 23 straight starts from May 20-Sept. 20, 2016 with the Mariners.

Royals Hall of Famer Dennis Leonard holds the club record with 26 straight starts with a decision (Aug. 26, 1997-June 23, 1978), over which he went 14-12.

CAN’T TOUCH THIS: Keller has held opponents to exactly 3 hits in each of his last 3 starts, which marks the longest such streak by a Royals starting pitcher—not including openers—since Brady Singer had a 3-start run from April 18-30, 2021 (7 hits allowed), and he’s one of 11 pitchers in the American League this season with at least 3 starts of 3 hits or fewer allowed…among all pitchers who have made at least 4
starts in 2023, his 14 total hits are tied for the 4th fewest, higher than only the Angels Shohei Ohtani (8), Philadelphia’s Matt Strahm (10) and Atlanta’s Spencer Strider (12).

NO TROUBLE WITH THE CURVE: Over his first 4 starts of the season, Keller has relied on his new curveball 28.3% of the time (according to Baseball Savant), which has yielded a 35.0% whiff rate and a 23.5% strikeout rate, as he has recorded 8 strikeouts in 34 plate appearances that ended with the pitch…the 35.0% whiff rate on his curveball ranks 9th highest in the Majors off the pitch (min. 25 plate appearances) and it’s the 3rd-best mark in the American League, behind only Houston’s Framber Valdez (42.6%) and the Yankees Domingo Germán (36.1%).

Brad has induced 21 swings and misses on his curveball this season, which is tied for the 5th most in the Majors off that pitch, trailing leader Nick Lodolo (33).

SEASONED VETERAN: Keller is pitching in his sixth Major League season, and since his debut in 2018, he leads all Royals in wins (37), starts (109), innings pitched (654.2) and strikeouts (493)…his 654.2 innings also rank 7th in the American League since the start of 2018, trailing only Gerrit Cole (901.2), José Berríos (841.1), Lucas Giolito (790.2), Marco Gonzales (782.1), Lance Lynn (749.0) and Shane Bieber (733.2).

Among pitchers who have made their Majors debut since 2018, Keller’s 109 starts rank 2nd, behind Bieber (116)…his 654.2 innings also rank 2nd among that group of pitchers—trailing Bieber—and his 37 wins are tied for the 5th most behind Bieber (55), Framber Valdez (43), teammate Ryan Yarbrough (40) and Dylan Cease (38), all of whom are older than Brad with the exception of Cease.

Brad is just 7 strikeouts away from becoming the 18th pitcher in Royals history to eclipse 500 strikeouts with the club.

FROM THE GROUND UP: Keller has a career 52.6% groundball rate, which ranks 4th in the Majors since the start of his 2018 debut season (min. 600.0 IP), trailing only Dallas Keuchel (55.2%), Marcus Stroman (54.9%) and Max Fried (52.7%)…likewise, his lifetime HR/9 rate of 0.82 (60 HR in 654.2 IP) ranks 4th in the Majors since 2018 (min. 600.0 IP), trailing Jacob deGrom (0.71), Zack Wheeler (0.74) and Fried (0.77)…his groundball percentage improved last season as he posted a 53.6% clip, however he allowed 17 home runs—just 1 short of matching his career high set in 2021—for a 1.10 HR/9 rate.

He’s induced 5 double plays in 4 starts this season and has an AL-leading 81 since the start of 2018, 3 more than Seattle’s Marco Gonzales (78).

HELP WANTED: Brad went 6-13 as a starting pitcher in 2022 despite recording 11 quality starts, 2nd by a Royal to only Brady Singer’s 14…the Royals supported him with a total of 35 runs in his 22 starts, including 2 runs or fewer in 17 of his 22 starts, 1 run or fewer 12 times and no runs seven times…he finished with a franchise-low 2.57 run support average as a starter, the lowest total in the Majors among pitchers who made at least 20 starts in 2022.

This trend continued over Keller’s first 2 starts of the 2023 season, as the Royals supported him with just 3 runs in 10.1 innings (2.61 RSA), however he exited in a 10-1 lead on April 12 in Texas…his 10 runs of support in that start are equivalent to 21.7% of the total run support (46 runs) provided over 22 starts for Royals pitchers this season, as they have averaged a 2.89 RSA (36 RS in 112.0 IP) over the remaining 21 starts.

UNFAMILIAR FACES: Brad is set to face the D-backs for the first time in his career, as they will become the 26th different opponent he’s faced, leaving only the Marlins, Mets and Rockies as teams he has still yet to oppose…the NL West is the division he’s faced the least, however he crossed San Francisco off the list on April 7, when he earned the win after spinning 5.2 innings of 1-run ball in his 1st career appearance vs. the Giants.

Despite only having 4 previous outings vs. the NL West, he’s no stranger to Interleague play, as he’s posted a 3.77 ERA (53 ER in 126.2 IP) over 26 appearances (21 starts) vs. National League teams, which is notably lower than his 4.31 ERA (253 ER in 528.0 IP) in his career vs. AL opponents.

ON THE ROAD AGAIN: He’s pitched into the 6th inning in 9 of his last 10 starts on the road since last April 28, including in each of his 2 road starts this season in San Francisco and Texas, where he covered a combined 12.1 innings with only 2 runs allowed (1.46 ERA)…he’s won 5 of his last 6 starts away from home since June 18, 2022, with the only exception being a 5.2-inning start last Aug. 2 at the White Sox in which he yielded 8 runs.

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS NOTES:

HERE’S THE STORY
♦ The D-backs are 1-3 in their 7-game homestand vs.Padres (1-3) and Royals (April 24-26).

♦ The D-backs are tied for fi rst place in the NL West with the Dodgers.

♦ Arizona has been in or tied for fi rst place since April 8.

♦ Ketel Marte is hitting .407 (11-for-27) with 1 double, 2 triples, 1 homer, and 4 RBI over his last 7 games…has raised his average from .237 to .280 over the span.

♦ Christian Walker is hitting .348 (8-for-23) with 3 doubles 1 homer and 5 RBI in his last 6 games.

♦ Corbin Carroll is hitting .304 (7-for-23) with 4 doubles, 4 walks and 2 stolen bases in his last 7 games.

♦ Tommy Henry is making his D-backs season debut.

ROSTER MOVES
♦ The D-backs made the following roster moves:

Recalled LHP Tommy Henry from Triple-A Reno.

Optioned RHP Drey Jameson to Reno.

A.L. MATCHUP NO. 1
♦ The D-backs welcome their fi rst AL series of 2023.

♦ In 2022, Arizona went 12-8 vs. AL opponents (6-4 @ home).

VS. ROYALS
♦ Arizona went 3-1 vs. Royals in 2022 (2-0 @ home).

♦ Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is batting .356 (21-for-59) with 2 doubles, 2 homers, 8 RBI and 8 walks over his last 19 games vs. Royals (2019-2022 while with Toronto).

♦ Christian Walker, in his last 4 games, is batting .353 (6-for-17) with 1 double, 2 home runs and 3 RBI.

♦ Ketel Marte, in his 4 games, is batting .313 (5-for-16) with 1 double, 3 RBI and 2 walks.

♦ Andrew Chafi n, in his last 9 appearances, has gone 1-0 with 1 save, a 1.04 ERA (1 ER in 8.2 IP) and 11 strikeouts.

GREETINGS, EVERYONE
♦ With the new balanced schedule, the D-backs will play all 29 teams for the time and host a franchise-record 22 teams, including 8 AL teams, at Chase Field.

♦ The D-backs 52 games vs. NL West teams (13 games each) are 24 games fewer than 2022…last year, went 64-60 vs. all teams besides Dodgers and Padres (10-28).

BACK-TO-BACK
♦ Alek Thomas and Nick Ahmed (7th inn.) collected the second pair of back-to-back home runs this season (also: April 7 vs. Dodgers (6th inn; Evan Longoria & Corbin Carroll).

♦ In 2022, the D-backs had 5 games featuring back-to-back home runs (last: Oct. 5, 2022; 9th inn; Josh Rojas & Corbin Carroll).

HOMER HAPPY
♦ Yesterday, the D-backs marked their fi rst game of the season with 3+ home runs (Alek Thomas, Nick Ahmed, Jake McCarthy).

♦ The last time the D-backs hit 3+ home runs in a game was on Sept. 15, 2022 vs. Padres (Ketel Marte, Emmanuel Rivera, Carson Kelly).

♦ Arizona has homered in 6 of its last 8 games.

STOLEN BASE RACE
♦ Corbin Carroll’s 8 stolen bases currently rank tied for third most in the Majors (also: Jorge Mateo/BAL & Anthony Volpe/NYY), behind Ronald Acuña Jr./ATL (12), Cedric Mullins/BAL (9) and Nico Hoerner/CHC (9).

♦ Carroll is only 1 of 3 players with 8+ stolen bases without a caught stealing (also: Mullins and Volpe).

♦ Arizona’s 21 stolen bases rank sixth in the Majors, behind Cleveland (28), Baltimore (25), Pittsburgh (25), Cubs (24) and Yankees (23).

LHP TOMMY HENRY ♦ #47

AT A GLANCE: Signed by the D-backs as a Competitive Balance-B selection (74th overall) in the 2019 draft.

• Attended the University of Michigan, where he helped lead the Wolverines to the 2019 College World Series vs. eventual champion Vanderbilt University.

• A Michigan native, attended Portage Northern High School, where he lettered in baseball and basketball.

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: Is making his fi rst start of the season with the D-backs.

• Went 1-0 with a 6.33 ERA (15 ER in 21.1 IP) with 22 strikeouts over 4 starts with Triple-A Reno.

• Made his last D-backs start on Oct. 3, 2022 @ Brewers (ND; 1 ER in 6.1 IP).

• In 2022, went 3-4 with a 5.36 ERA (28 ER in 47.0 IP) over 9 starts with Arizona.

VS. ROYALS: Is making his first career start vs. Royals.

ATS Wins

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