Monday, December 23, 2024
ATS Wins

MLB Preview: Kansas City Royals (25-62) at Cleveland Guardians (42-44)

KANSAS CITY ROYALS NOTES:

SWEPT IN THE TWIN CITIES: The Royals were shut out by a 5-0 score last night at Target Field, suffering their ninth sweep of the season and second to the Twins…it was their 10th shutout loss, 1 behind Detroit for the most in the Majors…the Royals were held to 4 hits and no walks with 12 strikeouts vs. Pablo López, who became the first to throw a shutout vs. the Royals since Lance Lynn on April 8, 2021…Alec Marsh had a good showing in his 2nd career start, holding the Twins to 3 runs (2 ER) on 3 hits and 3 walks in 5.0 innings with 5 strikeouts…he and first baseman Nick Pratto erased 2 of Marsh’s 3 walks with pickoffs, calls the Royals overturned on challenges.

SUPER DUPER: Royals Replay Specialist, Bill Duplissea, was successful in both of his challenges last night, twice overturning pickoff attempts by Alec Marsh at first base to convert them to outs…the Royals have overturned 10 of their 17 challenges this season (58.8%), which is actually below Duplissea’s career overturn rate of 65.4%, which leads the Majors since Instant Replay was instituted for the 2014 season…under Duplissea’s direction, the Royals have finished in the top three in replay success rate in five of the last seven seasons since 2016.

LEADS LOST: The Royals held an early lead Monday night on Maikel Garcia’s leadoff home run, but gave it right back on Byron Buxton’s sacrifice fly in the bottom half…the Royals tied the game twice after that but never led again, as the 8-4 defeat marked their Major League-most 30th blown lead loss of the season, ahead of the White Sox (28), Athletics (27) and Cardinals (27)…the Royals have held a lead in 40 of their last 58 games (69.0%) since the start of May, but they’re 18-40 (.310) during that stretch with 22 blown lead losses.

The Royals 30 blown lead losses are 6 shy of their total from all of last season, when they suffered 36 blown lead losses, and are 23 shy of the franchise record of 53, set during their 103-loss 2019 season.

They are 6-22 when scoring in the 1st inning and have lost 12 of their last 13 games when scoring in the 1st.

EN GUARD!: The Royals will close out the 1st half of the season with a 4-game series beginning tonight in Cleveland…the Royals are 1-4-1 in their last six series vs. Cleveland since the beginning of last season, a stretch in which they’ve been outscored 124-69 (-55) and have averaged just 3.1 runs per game on offense.

After playing 78 games before their 1st meeting, the Royals and Guardians are playing 7 games over 13 days, including a 3-game set in Kansas City last weekend, when the Royals lost 2 of 3…they salvaged the finale with a 4-3 win in 10 innings, overcoming a 2-run deficit in the 8th and a 1-run deficit in the 10th.

The Royals are nearing the end of a stretch in which they’re playing 23 games in 24 days through Sunday.

REHABBING ROYALS: The Royals have had 17 players spend time on the Injured List, including 10 players who are currently on it, five of whom were on the Opening Day roster…their 10 current injuries include eight pitchers—six of which have made at least 1 start—and one position player who was in the lineup on Opening Day.

Brad Keller made his 3rd rehab appearance (2nd start) with Omaha last night and allowed 1 run on 2 hits and 3 walks in 2.0 innings, with 3 strikeouts…he was placed on the 15-day IL on May 19 with a right shoulder impingement, and in 3 rehab outings, he’s allowed 3 runs on 3 hits and 9 walks in 4.1 innings.

Ryan Yarbrough continued his rehab assignment Tuesday night with Triple-A Omaha and allowed just 3 hits and 1 walk over 6.0 scoreless innings with 6 strikeouts…through 4 rehab starts (including 3 with Omaha), Yarbrough has pitched to a 2.55 ERA (5 ER in 17.2 IP) with 2 walks allowed and 20 strikeouts…it’s now been more than eight weeks since he was struck in the head by a comebacker on May 7 vs. the A’s.

Angel Zerpa continued his rehab assignment Monday night with Triple-A Omaha and allowed 4 runs on 6 hits and 2 walks in 4.1 innings, with 7 strikeouts…Zerpa, who was placed on the 60-day Injured List on March 15 with left shoulder tendinopathy, has a 3.78 ERA (7 ER in 16.2 IP) in 5 rehab starts (2 with Omaha).

PACE OF PLAY: After last night’s brisk 2-hour, 17-minute game in Minneapolis, the Royals are now averaging 2 hours, 36 minutes in their 87 games this season, matching the Marlins and Rays for the fastest average game time in the Majors…this would mark their fastest average game time in a single season since 1984, when they averaged 2 hours, 36 minutes…the league-wide average for 9.0 inning games this season is 2 hours, 38 minutes, 26 minutes faster than last season’s 9.0-inning game average of 3 hours, 4 minutes.

DUAL THREAT: Bobby Witt Jr. ranks 4th in the Majors this season with 25 stolen bases, which trail only Esteury Ruiz (43), Ronald Acuña Jr. (41) and Wander Franco (27)…he’s the first Royals player to reach 25 steals before the All-Star break since Adalberto Mondesi had 28 at the break in 2019…but Bobby also has 13 home runs, and that combination of homers and steals is matched by only one other player this season:
Acuña Jr. (21 HR)…in fact, Witt Jr. is only the second player in Royals history with that combination (13 HR, 25 SB) before the All-Star break, joining Royals Hall of Famer Amos Otis, who had 14 home runs and 27 steals at the break in 1971, a season in which he was an American League All-Star and finished 8th in the American League Most Valuable Player voting.

Witt Jr. is only the fourth player since 1901 to record at least 13 HR and 25 steals before the break in his age-23 season (or younger), following Hanley Ramírez, who did it in 2007, César Cedeño, who did it in three straight seasons from 1972-74 and Bobby Bonds, who did it in 1969.

ON DECK: Following the 1st-half finale on Sunday, the Royals will turn their attention to the 2023 First-Year Player Draft, which begins Sunday night at 6:00 p.m. CT…the Royals have the 8th overall pick and four of the first 75 picks, including a Competitive Balance Round B selection (66th overall).

The Royals will begin the 2nd half with a 7-game homestand from July 13-20, including 3 games vs. the Rays and a 4-game series vs. the Tigers.

BACK TO THE FUTURE: Royals right hander Will Klein will represent the Royals in the 2023 SiriusXM All-Star Futures Game, which will be played this Saturday, July 8 at T-Mobile Park in Seattle…the game is scheduled for 7.0 innings and will begin at 6:00 p.m. CT exclusively on Peacock and SiriusXM… Klein, 23, has recorded a 3.03 ERA (13 ER in 38.2 IP) with 60 strikeouts (14.0 K/9) in 28 appearances this season between Double-A Northwest Arkansas (21) and Triple-A Omaha (7)…since being promoted to Omaha on June 13, he’s recorded 16 strikeouts in 9.1 innings with just 2 runs allowed.

TONIGHT’S STARTERS: RHP JORDAN LYLES (1-11, 6.68 ERA)
JORDAN LYLES is making his 17th start of the season and 338th appearance (231st start) of his career tonight vs. the Guardians…he was originally selected by Houston in the 1st round (38th overall) of the 2008 Draft out of Hartsville High School (S.C.), and signed a two-year contract with the Royals on Dec. 28, 2022.

Lyles was scheduled to start last Friday, but was scratched with an illness.

BACK IN THE WIN COLUMN: Lyles snapped a career-long 11-game losing streak on June 24 vs. Tampa Bay, as he guided the Royals to a 9-4 victory with 6.0 innings
of 4-run ball, allowing a season-high-tying 8 hits and 1 walk with 2 strikeouts…the win snapped a run of 15 straight starts by Lyles in which the team lost to begin the season…all of the trouble he faced came early in the game, as Wander Franco jumped him for a 1-out homer in the 1st before back-to-back 2 out hits plated a 2nd run…with 2 outs in the 2nd inning, the Rays struck for 2 more runs on a double, stolen base, walk, single and single…following the RBI single by Luke Raley that gave the Rays a 4-0 advantage, Lyles retired 12 of the final 14 batters he faced, including a double play ball to end the 3rd inning, and exited with an 8-4 lead after 6.0 frames in favor of Carlos Hernández and Nick Wittgren, who combined for 3.0 hitless, scoreless frames of relief to stop his losing streak with a victory at the Trop.

Entering play on June 24, the Rays held MLB’s highest winning percentage (.671), meaning Jordan earned his 1st win and snapped an 11-decision losing streak against the best team in baseball, becoming just the fourth pitcher since 1900 to accomplish that feat as a starter, (see list to right), via Elias.

TROUBLE WITH THE LONG BALL: Lyles has allowed at least 1 home run in 11 of his 16 starts this season for a total of 19 HR in 91.2 innings, which are tied for the 5th most in the Majors, 3 behind Chicago’s Lance Lynn (22)…he has allowed multiple home runs in 7 of his 16 starts, but he’s kept opponents in the yard in 2 of his last 3 starts, and didn’t allow multiple homers in any of his 5 starts in June.

THE ONE BAD INNING: Lyles has avoided the “One Bad Inning” trend in his last 2 starts, one that last struck 3 starts ago on June 13 vs. the Reds, when he allowed 5 runs in the 2nd…he’s allowed at least 3 runs in a single frame in 9 of his 16 starts (10 instances)…he’s been charged with 37 runs (35 ER) in those 10 frames for a 31.50 ERA, which accounts for more than half of the 68 earned runs he’s allowed this season… if you set aside those 10 frames, he owns a 3.64 ERA in his remaining 81.2 innings.

PLEADING THE 5TH: Lyles has pitched at least 5.0 innings in 14 of his 16 starts, and in those 14 starts, he’s allowed 37 earned runs through the 5th for a 4.76 ERA (70.0 IP)…but from the 6th on, he’s allowed 17 earned runs in 15.1 innings (9.98 ERA).

THE ROLLER COASTER: Lyles has begun his Royals career with a 1-11 record through 16 starts, recently snapping a career-worst losing streak in his last start…a troubling trend has emerged this season, as his struggles have come in the beginning and end of his outings, while he’s been dominant in the middle innings…through his first 15 pitches, opponents have hit .352 (19-for-54) with 7 home runs, and from pitches 61 and up, opponents are batting .252 (31-for-123) with 11 doubles, 9 home runs and a triple…the good has come between pitches 16-60, when he has held opponents to a .215 average (39-for-181) with only 13 extra-base hits (3 HR) and 31 strikeouts.

His opponents’ OPS of 1.243 from pitches 1-15 is the 2nd highest in the Majors (min. 15 starts) behind Chicago’s Lucas Giolito (1.267) and his 12 extra-base hits allowed lead he Majors, ahead of Colorado’s Austin Gomber (11).

CLEVELAND GUARDIANS NOTES:

GUARDS FALL TO BRAVES HOT BATS IN RUBBER MATCH
The Cleveland Guardians dropped Thursday night’s rubber match to the Atlanta Braves by an 8-1 margin at Progressive Field… coming off a 4-2 road trip, the Guardians are 1-2 on current 7-game homestand against Atlanta (1-2) & Kansas City (4 games)… Cleveland is 7-4-1 over club’s last 12 series since May 26 (21- 16 record).

Atlanta’s offense out-hit Cleveland’s by a 19-7 margin, jumping on starter CAL QUANTRILL for 5 runs, 4 of those coming on 5 base knocks in the 1st inning (4.1IP, 11H, 5R-ER, 0BB, 3SO, HR, 99 pitches)…Atlanta’s lineup produced 7 individual multi-hit efforts, while the Braves also tagged a trio of home runs – getting solo shots from Sean Murphy (3rd inn.), Austin Riley (7th inn.) and Matt Olson (9th inn.)…Murphy paced the offense with 4 hits and 3 runs scored…Braves starter Michael Soroka carried a scoreless outing into the 5th inning (4.2IP, 5H, 0R, 3BB, 4SO, WP, HB, 99 pitches), followed by 3.1 scoreless frames of relief from Michael Tonkin… Cleveland avoided the shutout after plating a single run in the 9th inning, as STEVEN KWAN picked up a one-out double and later scored on AMED ROSARIO’s groundout.

Cleveland (42-44) sits in 2nd place in the AL Central standings, 2.0-game behind 1st-place Minnesota (45-43) and 4.5 games ahead of 3rd-place Detroit (-6.5G, 37-48)…Guardians have won 10 of 16, 17 of 29 and 20 of last 35, though have also dropped 38 of last 71 overall since starting the year 9-6.

HEAVY IS THE HEAD
The Cleveland Guardians are scheduled to take on the Kansas City Royals for a 4-game set from Thursday to Sunday, the second of 4 series between the divisional opponents in the 2023 campaign… the Guards went 12-7 against the Royals in 2022, and 7-5 at Progressive Field…during the Terry Francona era, Cleveland is 112-72 against Kansas City, the club’s second-most wins against any opponent over that span behind Chicago-AL (113-74), and 60- 32 at Progressive Field…the Guards 60 wins at home against the Royals are the most against any MLB team in the Francona era, ahead of Chicago-AL (59)…Francona is 147-94 against the Royals, his most wins against any opponent in his managerial career ahead of Detroit (146-98)…the Clevelanders have lost just one season series to Kansas City under Francona (2015, 9-10).

A ROYAL PAIN IN THE SIDE
In 142 career games against Royals, JOSÉ RAMÍREZ has a slash line of .274/.355/.502 with 25 HR and 87 RBI…among MLB hitters against Kansas City since 2013, he leads in runs (88), extra-base hits (65), doubles (37) and stolen bases (18)…he also ranks top 3 in RBI (87, 2nd), total bases (260, 2nd), go-ahead RBI (26, 2nd), multi-hit games (38, T2nd), hits (142, 3rd), home runs (25, 3rd), walks (62, 3rd) and game-winning RBI (14, 3rd).

In his last series against the Royals from June 27-29, Ramírez went 4-for-9 (.444) with 4 runs, a double, a grand slam, 4 walks, 6 RBI, and 3 stolen bases…he has recorded a hit in each of his last 8 games against Kansas City…in his 8 games against the Royals since September 30, 2022, he is batting 13-for-30 (.433) with 8 runs, 13 RBI, 5 walks and 5 stolen bases during the span.

MYLES STRAW (.328, 38-for-116) AMED ROSARIO (49-for158, .310) and ANDRÉS GIMÉNEZ (.309, 29-for-94) are each hitting .300-or-better against Royals pitching since 2019…the trio of Cleveland bats are 3 of only 9 hitters to play 30-or-more games against the Royals and bat .300-or-better since 2019.

THE GUARDIAC KIDS
The Guardians lead MLB this season with 36 one-run games, holding a 16-19 record…marks the 4th-most one-run contests through the first 86 games of a season in club history (most since going 20-17 in 1966) and the 4th-most one-run contests of any MLB team in the Wild Card Era (since 1995) through 86 games… Cleveland also leads MLB this year with 53 games decided by 2-orfewer runs, holding a 28-25 record…is T4th-most such contests within the first 86 games of a season in club history (most since going 27-27 in 1967)…the Guardians 53 contests decided by 2-orfewer runs is tied for most through the first 86 games of a season in the Wild Card Era (since 1995) with the 2002 New York Mets, 2003 Tampa Bay Devil Rays and 2013 Arizona Diamondbacks…the Guards have also played in more extra-inning games (14) than any other club this season.

MOST G BY 2-OR-FEWER RUNS IN FIRST 86G, WC ERA
TEAM YEAR COUNT RECORD (W%)
CLE 2023 53 28-25 (.528)
ARI 2013 53 30-23 (.566)
TB 2003 53 23-30 (.434)
NYM 2002 53 27-26 (.509)

RUMBLE, YOUNG MAN, RUMBLE
During the 2023 season, the Guardians have relied on rookie arms in both their starting rotation and bullpen…the Guards are one of 2 MLB teams (also Oakland) to have 5 different rookies throw 30.0+ innings this season; TANNER BIBEE (65.0IP), LOGAN ALLEN (62.1IP), XZAVION CURRY (46.1IP), PEYTON BATTENFIELD (34.2IP) and HUNTER GADDIS (31.1IP)…36.42% of Cleveland’s innings pitched this season (282.0IP/774.1IP) have come via rookies, the 2nd-highest rate in MLB behind Oakland (39.55%)…the Guards have used 9 different rookie arms this season, only trailing Cincinnati (12) for most in MLB…the Guards rookies rank 2nd in MLB in wins (13), games started (39) and strikeouts (246), trailing Oakland’s 14 wins, 44 starts and 285 strikeouts from rookies…as a team, Cleveland possesses the youngest average age of pitchers (26.2) among MLB clubs this season, ahead of Miami (27.2).

THE BOY OF SUMMER
AMED ROSARIO has recorded an RBI in a career-best 5 straight games…he is hitting .333 (8-for-24) with a home run, a double, and 11 RBI over the stretch…he plated Cleveland’s lone run in last night’s contest…Rosario’s 5 straight games with an RBI are tied for MLB’s longest active streak with Milwaukee’s William Contreras and Boston’s Justin Turner…he is the third different Clevelander to record an RBI in 5 straight contests this season, joining JOSH BELL and JOSÉ RAMÍREZ.

TONIGHT’S STARTER – 61 TANNER BIBEE RHP

BIBEE’S MLB CAREER
W-L ERA G GS IP H R ER BB SO
2023 5-2 3.46 12 12 65.0 59 27 25 23 67
Career 5-2 3.46 12 12 65.0 59 27 25 23 67

BIBEE AT HOME
W-L ERA G GS IP H R ER BB SO
2023 3-1 2.38 6 6 34.0 24 11 9 11 35
Career 3-1 2.38 6 6 34.0 24 11 9 11 35

The 24-year-old right-hander is making his 13th start, seventh at home, in the opener of this 4-game set with the Kansas City Royals…marks his third start against the AL Central, owning a 7.27 ERA (7ER/8.2IP) against the division…allowed 3 runs (earned) over 5.0 innings at Minnesota on June 1, his last divisional start.

Has worked 5.0+ innings with 3-or-fewer earned runs allowed in 3 consecutive starts…has won 4 of his last 5 decisions entering today…owns a 3-1 record with a 2.38 ERA (9ER/34.0IP) in 6 starts at home this season.

Bibee was originally selected by Cleveland in the 5th Round (156th overall) of the 2021 MLB Draft out of Cal State Fullerton… entered the 2023 season as Cleveland’s #5 prospect according to MLB.com…he is starting on 4 days’ rest; is 1-0 with a 5.40 ERA (6ER/10.0IP) in 2 starts on 4 days’ rest.

LAST TIME OUT
Bibee worked his first scoreless outing on July 1 at Wrigley Field against the Cubs, twirling 5.2-shutout innings with 3 hits allowed and a career-high tying 9 strikeouts (W, 5.2IP, 3H, 0R/ER, 2BB, 9SO)…Bibee retired 9 of the first 11 batters he faced through the first 3.0 frames…the Cubs drew back-to-back walks to open up the 4th frame but Bibee recorded three straight outs to get out of the jam…he retired the next 6 batters to finish his day…Bibee is now 4-1 with a 3.49 ERA 14ER/38.1IP) across 7 Interleague starts and has not allowed 4-or-more runs in 6 of those 7 starts.

NEW KID ON THE BLOCK
Bibee ranks among MLB rookie starting pitchers (min. 50.0IP) in win percentage (.714, 1st), HR/9 (0.83, 1st), ERA (3.46, 3rd), SO/9 (9.28, 3rd), WHIP (1.26, 3rd) and batting average (.239, 4th).

Following his scoreless outing against the Cubs on Saturday, Bibee has 10 outings of 5.0+IP with 3-or-fewer earned runs allowed within his first 12 starts, becoming the only Cleveland pitcher to ever accomplish the feat…on April 26, after striking out 5 straight in the 2nd and 3rd innings, he became the first Cleveland pitcher since at least 1920 to strike out 5 straight hitters in their MLB debut…Bibee became the 2nd Cleveland pitcher with an 8+ strikeout, zero walk debut, last done by Floyd Weaver (W, 5.0IP, 3H, 1R/ER, 0BB, 8SO) on September 30, 1962 vs. Los Angeles-AL in G2 of a doubleheader.

FIRST IMPRESSIONS
Bibee is holding hitters to a .184 average (18-for-98) with 35 of his 67 strikeouts coming the first time through an opposing team’s lineup…opposing clubs are hitting .247 (24-for-97) when facing the rookie a second time through the order…in his last start, Chicago-NL went 0-for-7 with 2 walks the second time through the lineup… opposing hitters are hitting .327 (17-for-52) the third time through the order.

CHANGE UP THE PACE
Bibee’s changeup is holding hitters to a .195 clip (8-for-41) this season with a .147 xBA, 7th-lowest in MLB…he’s struck out 17 batters in 46 plate appearances ending with his changeup, a 37.0% SO rate, the highest of any of his pitches (slider, 29.4%; fastball, 19.4%; curveball, 8.3%)…the 25.0% hard-hit rate is the lowest of any of the pitches in his arsenal…he has also allowed just one extra-base hit off of his changeup, compared to 4 off of his curveball, 5 off of his slider and 8 off of his 4-seam fastball.

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