Friday, October 18, 2024
Fantasy Guru - Baseball

MLB Preview: Kansas City Royals (18-43) at Miami Marlins (34-28)

KANSAS CITY ROYALS NOTES:

ERROR IN THEIR WAYS: The Royals committed a season-high 3 errors in last night’s 6-1 loss in Miami, falling to 3-16-1 in series play this season…Zack Greinke retired 12 of his first 13 batters—the only baserunner reaching on an error in the 1st—before the Marlins got their 1st hit to begin the 5th, a solo home run by Jesús Sánchez… that was the 1st of 3 straight hits to begin the frame, the 2nd of which included an error by Edward Olivares that allowed the runners to advance to second and third…Nick Fortes then reached on a fielder’s choice when Bobby Witt Jr. failed in his attempt to get the runner at third, loading the bases with no outs…Greinke got the 1st out of the inning on a strikeout before Luis Arraez hit an RBI single, after which Jackson Kowar was summoned and allowed a 2-out, bases-clearing double to Bryan De La Cruz, capping Miami’s 5-run inning that broke a scoreless tie…Zack was originally charged with only 1 earned run in the frame, but the official scorer after the game made all 5 runs earned, raising his season ERA more than half a run from 4.05 to 4.59.

The Royals were held to 5 hits on offense and their only run scored on a wild pitch in the 6th inning.

ROSTER MOVE: The Royals today placed right hander Josh Staumont on the 15-day Injured List retroactive to June 6 with a neck strain…in a corresponding move, left hander Austin Cox has been recalled from Triple-A Omaha, Cox, 26, made his Major League debut on May 4 vs. Baltimore with 2.0 scoreless innings…he was optioned the following day and has recorded a 5.32 ERA (13 ER in 22.0 IP) in 5 outings (4 starts) with Omaha since…he last pitched a week ago tonight vs. Memphis and allowed 6 runs (5 ER) on 5 home runs in 5.0 innings.

SERIES SPEAKING: The Royals are winless in their last six series including this one, a stretch in which they’ve lost five sets and split one since they won 2 of 3 games in San Diego from May 15-17…they are 4-12 during this six series skid and have been outscored 75-54 (-21), despite hitting 17 home runs while allowing only 9 of them.

Last night’s loss clinched the Royals first series loss in Miami, as they won their three previous visits in 2008 at Dolphin Stadium and in 2016 and 2019 here at loanDepot Park…the Royals are 10-10 in 20 all-time meetings vs. Miami, but they’re 5-6 since the Marlins new look debuted in 2012 and have lost 3 straight.

The Royals have been swept in a 3-game series five times this season, but they’ve won the series finale to avoid a sweep four times, including their last two 3-game sets vs. Washington and Colorado.

LEADS LOST: Monday night marked Kansas City’s 20th blown lead loss of the season, which is 1 behind St. Louis and Oakland (21 each) for the most in the Majors…they blew a 4-0 lead in Monday night’s 9-6 win, marking their largest blown lead loss of the season, leaving the Astros, Tigers, Twins and Nationals as the only remaining teams who have yet to lose a game in which they led by 4 runs…Monday night marked Kansas City’s largest blown lead loss in 143 games, since last July 4 at Houston, where they had a 5-0 lead in the 4th, but lost 7-6.

The Royals have held a lead in 23 of their last 32 games since the start of May, but they’re just 11-21 during that stretch with 12 blown lead losses…they’ve had blown lead losses in 3 of their last 6 road games.

INTERLEAGUE INTRIGUE: Tonight is the Royals 26th Interleague game, which represents more than 40% of their 62 games this season and matches Milwaukee for the 2nd-most Interleague games in the Majors, trailing only Pittsburgh (29)…the Royals will play 46 Interleague games this season after playing 20 every year from 2013-22.

The Royals are 8-17 in Interleague play this season and have lost 5 of their last 6 after winning 4 of 6.

This trip to Miami marks the Royals fourth consecutive series vs. a National League opponent, a streak that will run to 10 straight games tonight…when this trip continues to Baltimore this weekend, it will end a stretch in which the Royals will have played six of eight series vs. National League opponents.

Salvador Perez is Kansas City’s all-time leader in Interleague play in HR (36) and RBI (112), and his 197 hits rank 2nd to Alex Gordon (210)…Salvy, who makes his offseason home in nearby Weston, Fla., has homered vs. 25 of 29 opponents, the only exceptions being the Marlins, Braves, Mets and Phillies.

FOR STARTERS: Royals starting pitchers recorded 15.2 consecutive scoreless innings until Miami’s 5-run 5th inning last night vs. Zack Greinke, which marked the 1st runs scored against a Royals starter since Colorado’s 5-run 1st inning last Saturday vs. Daniel Lynch…Royals starters combined to allow just 8 hits and 1 walk with 18 strikeouts during those 15.2 scoreless innings, but the team went 1-3 in the 4 games covered by the streak.

The Royals have had a starter complete 6.0 innings only 12 times in 61 games (19.7%), the fewest in the Majors, and it’s been 17 games since their last start of at least 6.0 innings, by Brady Singer on May 16 at San Diego…as a result, the bullpen has been worked for 241.1 innings, 4th most in the Majors this season.

Royals starters have allowed 1 run or fewer in 6 of the last 12 games, a stretch in which their 3.40 ERA (20 ER in 53.0 IP) ranks 4th in the Majors…Royals starters have 63 strikeouts in 53.0 innings over the last 12 games for a 28.6 K% and 10.7 K/9, which 1st and 2nd, respectively among starting staffs since May 23.

ON DECK: Following tonight’s series finale in Miami, the Royals will fly to Baltimore to enjoy an off day tomorrow with their dads, many of who are traveling with the team this week for the annual Father’s Trip…starting Friday night, the Royals will play a 3-game series vs. the Orioles, who enter today with a 37-23 (.617) record, 3rd best in the Majors behind only Tampa Bay (44-19) and Texas (40-20)…the Royals lost 2 of 3 games to the Orioles at Kauffman Stadium last month, and have not won a regular season series in Baltimore since 2014.

COUNTDOWN TO 50,000: The Royals enter tonight with 49,987 pitching strikeouts in 55 seasons, and are just 13 shy of becoming the 24th franchise to reach 50,000…the Royals have recorded at least 13 strikeouts five times this season, including a season-high-tying 14 strikeouts on Sunday vs. Colorado…the Royals all-time strikeouts leader is Kevin Appier with 1,458, and Zack Greinke is the Royals active leader with 1,054 strikeouts with the club, which are 3 strikeouts shy of Paul Splittorff (1,057) for 5th place on the club’s all-time strikeouts list.

DUEL THREAT: It might be tempting to look at Bobby Witt Jr.’s .237 batting average and second guess all the buzz that surrounds the shortstop, who turns 23 a week from today…but those who watch him every day can appreciate the flashes of greatness and the wide array of tools he displays…his combination of 10 home runs and 19 stolen bases, for example, are matched only by National League MVP candidate Ronald Acuña Jr., who has 12 HR and 26 steals…in fact, Witt Jr.—who graduated high school four years ago—is on pace for 26 home runs and 50 stolen bases, a combination that has been matched only 10 times in Major League history, and not since the Marlins Hanley Ramírez went for 29 home runs and 51 steals in 2007…Bobby’s pace of 26 home runs and 50 steals has been matched only twice in American League history, by Hall of Famer Rickey Henderson, who had 28 home runs and 87 steals with the Yankees in 1986 and won the American League MVP Award with the A’s in 1990 with 28 home runs and 65 steals.

Bobby has had 6 games this season with at least 3 hits, tied for 3rd most in the American League, trailing only Bo Bichette (9) and teammate Vinnie Pasquantino (7)…his 19 steals are 4th most in the Majors this season behind Esteury Ruiz (29), Acuña Jr. (26) and Wander Franco (21).

TONIGHT’S STARTERS: RHP JORDAN LYLES (0-0, 6.89 ERA)

JORDAN LYLES is making his 13th start of the season and 334th appearance (227th start) of his career tonight vs. the Marlins…he was originally selected by Houston in the 1st round (38th overall) of the 2008 Draft out of Hartsville High School (S.C.), and signed a two-year contract with the Royals on Dec. 28, 2022.

LAST START: Lyles did not figure into the decision of Kansas City’s 7-2 loss to Colorado last Friday night at Kauffman Stadium, in which he held the Rockies to a season-low 1 run on a season-low 2 hits in 5.0 innings, with just 1 walk and 8 strikeouts…he yielded a 2-out, solo home run to Ryan McMahon in the 1st inning, his Majors-most 17th HR allowed this season, but retired 13 of the next 15 batters, stranding a 1-out single in the 2nd and a 2-out walk in the 5th…he exited with a 2-1 lead and was in line for his 1st win, but the Rockies scored 6 runs in the 8th inning.

Last Friday night was the 2nd start of the year in which Lyles exited with a lead, including May 4 vs. Baltimore, when he led 8-7 before the Royals lost 13-10.

Lyles has allowed at least 1 home run in 9 of his 12 starts this season and his 17 HR in 66.2 innings (2.3 HR/9) are tied for the Major League lead with Toronto’s Yusei Kikuchi, and he’s allowed multiple homers in 7 of his 12 starts.

SEEKING SUPPORT: Jordan has received 25 runs of support in his 66.2 innings this season for a 3.38 run support average, which is the 6th lowest among qualified pitchers…the Royals offense has supported Lyles with 2 runs or fewer in 9 of his 12 starts, including each of the last 3…that lack of support is part of why Lyles has a Majors-most 9 losses, and his 12 winless starts are the 4th most to begin a season in Royals history, trailing Vida Blue in 1983 (14), José Lima in 2005 (13) and Darrell May in 2003 (13)…the Royals are 0-12 in games started by Lyles this year.

He’s seeking his 1st win since his final start of 2022, a 2-1 victory last Sept. 30 at the Yankees with the O’s…his 9 straight losing decisions since are a career high.

THE ROLLER COASTER: Lyles has begun his Royals career with an 0-9 record through 12 starts, setting a career-worst losing streak…in those starts, a troubling trend has emerged, as his struggles have come in the beginning and end of his outings, while he’s been largely dominant in the middle innings…through his first 15 pitches, he has allowed opponents to hit .390 (16-for-41) with 6 home runs, and from pitches 61 and up, opponents are batting .275 (25-for-91) with 9 doubles, 9 home runs and a triple…the good has come between pitches 16-60, when he has held opponents to a .180 average (23-for-128) with only 9 extra-base hits and 27 strikeouts.

His opponents’ OPS of 1.386 from pitches 1-15 is the highest in Major League Baseball (min. 10 starts), as are his 11 extra-base hits allowed, which are 3 more than the next closest pitchers (Austin Gomber and Rich Hill, 8 each).

PLEADING THE 5TH: He has thrown at least 5.0 innings in 10 of his 12 starts as a Royal, and in those 10 starts, he’s allowed 24 earned runs through the 5th for a 4.32 ERA… but from the 6th inning on, he’s allowed 13 earned runs in 10.1 innings (11.32 ERA).

ON STRIKE: Lyles has issued 24 walks in 66.2 innings this year for an 8.3 BB%, which would be his highest mark since 2020 (8.6), and is slightly higher than his career mark of 7.7%….he’s improved with age, as his BB% of 7.2% since the start of 2021 ranks 3rd in the AL (min. 400.0 IP), behind José Berríos (6.1%) and Gerrit Cole (6.5%).

READY FROM THE JUMP: Despite ranking 26th in the American League in 1st pitch strikes (60.6%), opponents have swung at 33.9% of Lyles’ 1st pitches, which is the 10th-highest rate in the American League…in 0-0 counts, opponents are slashing .400/.381/.850 (16-for-40) with 9 extra-base hits for a 1.231 OPS, which is his 3rd highest in any count, trailing 3-0 counts (2.800 OPS) and 3-1 counts (1.825 OPS).

WORKHORSE: The Royals are the eighth club Lyles has pitched for during his 13-year big league career that has included stops with Houston (2011- 13), Colorado (2014-17), San Diego (2017-18), Milwaukee (2018-19), Pittsburgh (2019), Texas (2020-21), Baltimore (2022) and Kansas City (2023)…since the start of 2021, his 425.2 innings rank 3rd among American League pitchers behind Gerrit Cole (461.2 IP) and José Berríos (435.1 IP).

He was one of only four American League pitchers to record at least 175.0 innings from 2021-2022, along with Cole, Cole Irvin and Robbie Ray.

Across his 13 seasons and 333 Major League appearances, he has only been placed on the Injured List on five occasions: June 10-29, 2019 (left hamstring tightness), March 28-April 4, 2019 (right side discomfort), June 24-July 29, 2018 (right elbow inflammation), June 1-end of season, 2015 (sprained left big toe) and June 5-Aug. 6, 2014 (fractured left hand).

GONE FISHIN’: In 7 career outings (5 starts) vs. Miami, Jordan is 2-1 with a 5.22 ERA (17 ER in 29.1 IP) and his teams are 4-1 in his 5 starts….he last started against the Marlins on Sept. 9, 2019 with Milwaukee, but did not factor into the decision of an 8-3 win after he allowed 1 run on 4 hits in 4.1 innings.

Jordan is one of 16 active pitchers with at least 1 start against the Marlins pre-2012—when they were the Florida Marlins—a group that includes teammate Zack Greinke (3 starts) and is led by Adam Wainwright and Charlie Morton (6 starts)…Lyles 1 appearance vs. the Florida Marlins came in his 8th career appearance with Houston on July 8, 2011 at Sun Life Stadium, where he suffered a 6-3 loss after allowing 5 runs in 6.0 innings.

FAR FROM HOME: Over the course of his 13-year career, Lyles has fared better when pitching in front of his home fans, going 36-42 (.462) with a 4.79 ERA (383 ER in 720.0 IP) in 170 appearances…in 163 appearances (114 starts) on the road, he’s 30-57 (.345) with a 5.62 ERA (420 ER in 673.0 IP)… in 2022 while pitching for the Orioles, Lyles pitched extremely well at Camden Yards, with a 3.47 ERA (32 ER in 83.0 IP) across 14 starts…he was hit hard last year on the road, where he posted a 5.25 ERA (56 ER in 96.0 IP) in 18 starts, but he did go 7-8 and only 10 AL pitchers had more road wins

MIAMI MARLINS NOTES:

MARLINS MINUTE – The Marlins today play the final of three games vs. Kansas City as they conclude a nine-game homestand – matching their longest ‘stand of the year (also Sept. 15-24). Are coming off a 3-game sweep vs. Oakland since dropping the first series to San Diego (1-2). After an off day on Thursday, will begin their second consecutive three-city road trip to play the White Sox (June 9-11), Mariners (June 12-14), and Nationals (June 16-18).

  • Have won 10 of their last 12 games at loanDepot park and are tied for the most home wins in the National League in 2023 with both ARI and LAD.
  • Are 12-2 (.857) in Interleague play this year, the highest winning pct. among MLB teams in such games this year. The Marlins’ 103-148 record in Interleague play dating back to 2010 marked the worst in MLB.
  • The Marlins are 10-10 all-time vs. Kansas City. Secured their first series win against the Royals since 2013 (Took 2 of 3 at Kauffman Stadium).

UP THE RANKS – At 34-28 through the club’s first 62 games, tied for the third-best start to a season in club history. See chart to right for the top starts in Marlins history.

  • Is their most games over .500 since July 31, 2016 (9 over).
  • Miami currently has the 4th-best record in the NL, behind only ATL, ARI, and LAD.

SWEEPING SENSATION – The Marlins today will look to sweep back-to-back series at home for the first time since 2008, when they swept WSH
in 3 and HOU in 3 from Sept. 12-18. Last swept consecutive series in 2019, when the Marlins took 3 vs. NYM and 3 at DET.

YESTERDAY’S RECAP – Miami extended their winning streak to a season-high 5 games with a 6-1 win over Kansas City on Tuesday night. LHP Jesus Luzardo went 7.0 innings for the second time this year, allowing just 1 run on 2 hits with 8 strikeouts. The difference of the night came in the fifth inning for Miami which began with a solo home run by RF Jesus Sanchez (1×4) and was concluded by a bases-clearing double from LF Bryan De La Cruz (1×3). 2B Luis Arraez (2×4) also added an RBI single, recording his 26th multi-hit game and raising his season batting avg. to .401.

LA REGADERA – 2B Luis Arraez leads MLB with his .401 AVG (85×212) and .451 OBP, and 2nd with 85 hits. Also ranks tied for 1st with 26 2-hit games and is tied for 3rd with 8 games of 3+ hits. Has struck out just 11 times in 235 PA (.047 K/PA), the lowest mark in MLB among qualifiers.

  • Arraez is 1 of 7 non-U.S.-born MLB players all-time to post a batting avg. of .399 or higher through 57 games of a season (in which the player registered at least 1 AB), joining Larry Walker (.417, 1997) Andres Galarraga (.414, 1993), Roberto Alomar (.410, 1996), Rico Carty (.404, 1970), Rod Carew (.409, 1983), and Tony Fernandez (.403, 1999).
  • His .401 avg. marks the highest through a player’s first 57 games in Marlins history. The second-highest mark was set by Luis Castillo (.365) in 2000.
  • Arraez has recorded 150 multi-hit games in his career and 142 strikeouts in 446 career games since his debut in 2019. There have been only five players to debut since 1980 to strike out fewer than 150 times within their first 450 career games – see chart to right.

GETTING OFFENSIVE – The Marlins’ offense has posted an NL-best .301 AVG (167×554) since May 21 at SF. Their 167 hits also rank 1st among MLB teams and the club’s 89 runs rank 2nd in MLB behind only Texas (102). In this same span, Miami also leads all MLB teams with 23 GIDP.

  • Miami’s 7-8-9 hitters in the batting order have combined to hit .341 in the same span (since May 21), marking the best AVG among the bottom third of the order among all MLB teams. The second-best mark is owned by Toronto (.301).
  • Overall, Miami leads the NL with 546 H, ranks 2nd with .261 AVG, and t-4th with 11 3B.
  • The Marlins have scored at least 4 runs in 5 consecutive games for the second time this season (other, May 23-27). Went 3-2 in the first stretch and are 5-0 on the current stretch, marking the first time since 2011 the club has scored 4+ runs and gone 5-0 (July 23-28).

LEFTY LOVE

  • LHP Andrew Nardi has not allowed an earned run in his last 16 apps. (May 2 to June 5) with a 0.89 WHIP and 18 strikeouts in this span. His 30 relief apps. are tied with Cleveland’s Emmanual Clase for most in the Majors.
  • LHP Tanner Scott is ranks 3rd among NL relievers with 40 strikeouts. Led the Marlins ‘pen with 90 strikeouts in 2022. Has held opponents scoreless in last 12 apps. (11.2 innings). Marks his longest career scoreless innings streak (previously, 9.1 IP from 8/26-9/18/20).
  • LHP A.J. Puk was returned from rehab and reinstated from the IL prior to yesterday’s game. Missed 21 games with left elbow nerve irritation. Prior to his injury, Puk had 19 strikeouts in 14.2 innings and 6 saves for Miami.

DE LA CRUZIN’
OF Bryan De La Cruz is 2×6 with 5 RBI during this series vs. KC, including his 8th home run of the year on Monday and a bases-clearing double on Tuesday. Ranks 2nd on team with 16 multi-hit games (behind only Arraez) and is tied for 3rd in MLB with 8 multi-hit games on the year.

  • In his last 30 G (May 5 – June 6), has posted a .972 OPS. Is the fourth-best mark in the MLB (min. 100 AB) in this span behind only LAD’s Freddie Freeman (1.052), HOU’s Yordan Alvarez (1.017), and CIN’s Spencer Steer (.990).

JOEY!
SS Joey Wendle is batting .500 (8×16) with 4 doubles and 3 multi-hit games in his last 4 starts since June 3. Had not recorded a multi-hit game yet this season. Had 26 multi-hit efforts in 101 games in 2022.

DON’T COUNT THEM OUT
Miami overcame 4-run deficits to win Sunday (down 5-1, won 7-5) and Monday (down 4-0, won 9-6). Marked the third time the club has come back by 4+ runs to win back-to-back games (2 games; 6/17/01 vs. TB & 6/18/01 vs. ATL and 3 games; 8/9/99, 8/10/99, & 8/11/99 vs. SF). Have made 17 total comeback wins.

TODAY’S STARTER – #27 EDWARD CABRERA

  • Edward Cabrera, 25, will make his first career start against the Kansas City Royals and his 13th start of the season tonight.
  • In his most recent start on June 2 vs. OAK, tossed his first scoreless outing of the season, pitching 6.0 innings and allowing just 4 hits and 1 walk. Struck out 10 batters.
  • His 10-strikeout performance on June 2 vs. OAK marked the second of his career, both coming this season (other, 12 K on 4/29 vs. CHC.) Is the only Marlins pitcher to have multiple 10+ strikeout apps. this season.
  • Has allowed 3 or fewer runs in 10 outings this season; tied first in Club w/ Jesus Luzardo.
  • Ranks tied third in MLB in strikeouts with bases loaded with 4 SO.
  • Left-handed batters are hitting .167 (19×114) vs. Cabrera in 2023 with 4 home runs and 43 strikeouts while right-handed batters are hitting .277 (28×101) with 3 home runs and 33 strikeouts.
  • In 15 career starts at home, owns a 4.01 ERA (74.0 IP/33 ER) and has gone 7-4 with 79 strikeouts. In 18 starts away is 3-7 with a 4.06 ERA (82.0 IP/37 ER) and 100 strikeouts.
  • Has made 9 consecutive starts with 5+ strikeouts (4/18 – 6/2), tied fourth in MLB among active streaks since 2022 (w/ Clayton Kershaw – LAD).
  • Through 12 starts in 2022 pitched to a 6-3 record, with a 2.91 ERA (65.0/21), 67 SO, and 9 HR. Through 12 starts in 2023 has a 4-4 record, with a 4.50 ERA (58.0/29), 76 SO, and 7 HR.
ATS Wins

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