Monday, December 23, 2024
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MLB Preview: Detroit Tigers (28-39) at Minnesota Twins (35-34)

DETROIT TIGERS NOTES:

TIGERS RALLY FOR SERIES-OPENING WIN AGAINST TWINS: The Tigers overcame a three-run deficit and defeated the Twins 8-4 on Thursday night. Matt Vierling reached base in all four plate appearances last night, going 3×3 with a RBI and a walk. Javier Báez went 2×5 with a triple and two RBI, while Spencer Torkelson also had two hits, including a double, and drove in two runs. Matthew Boyd started for Detroit and picked up his fourth win of the season, allowing four runs on seven hits with a walk and eight strikeouts in 6.0 innings. Will Vest, Jason Foley and Alex Lange each threw a scoreless inning to close out the victory.

JAVY HEATING UP: Javier Báez had a pair of hits, including a triple, and drove in two runs in last night’s game. Báez has hit safely in five
consecutive games and in eight of his last nine, over which he is batting .300/.293/.450 with a double, a triple, a home run and four RBI. Báez enters tonight’s game with 995 hits in his career, five shy of reaching 1,000.

TIGERS TIDBITS: Spencer Torkelson went 2×5 with a double and two RBI last night. After going 2×22 in his first six games of June, Torkelson is
10×28 with three doubles, two home runs and six RBI in his last seven games…Matt Vierling reached base in all four plate appearances last
night, finishing the game 3×3 with a RBI and a walk. In four games since being reinstated from the injured list, Vierling is 6×13 with a double, a home run and two RBI.

TIGERS AND TWINS: The Tigers and Twins continue their first series of the season tonight. Detroit went 8-11 against Minnesota last season, including a 2-7 record at Target Field. The Tigers have lost the season series to the Twins each year dating back to 2017.

AGAINST THE AL CENTRAL: The Tigers continue divisional play tonight against the Twins. Detroit is 10-7 against American League Central teams so far this season. The Tigers have finished below .500 against AL Central foes in each of the last five 162-game seasons, including a 34-42
record last season.

ON THE ROAD: The Tigers are 1-0 on their current four-game road trip. Detroit is 13-21 on the road this season. As a team, the Tigers are hitting .212/.287/.326 away from Comerica Park, while the pitching staff has a 4.28 ERA (294.2IP/140ER).

INJURY REHAB UPDATE: Tarik Skubal made an injury rehab start with Triple A Toledo last night, throwing 3.0 scoreless innings and allowing one hit with five strikeouts. In three starts between Toledo and Single A West Michigan, Skubal has thrown 8.0 innings, allowing an unearned run on four hits with no walks and 12 strikeouts.

TIGERS ON THE IL:

  • OF Akil Baddoo (right quad strain, 10-day IL on June 10)
  • RHP Beau Brieske (right upper arm discomfort, 60-day IL on March 30, retroactive to March 27)
  • RHP Alex Faedo (right middle finger discomfort, 15-day IL on June 3, retroactive to May 31)
  • OF Riley Greene (left fibula stress reaction, 10-day IL on May 31)
  • RHP Matt Manning (right foot fracture, 60-day IL on April 12)
  • OF Austin Meadows (anxiety, 60-day IL on April 8, retroactive to April 7)
  • RHP Casey Mize (right elbow sprain, 60-day IL on February 17)
  • RHP Freddy Pacheco (right elbow sprain, 60-day IL on March 27)
  • LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (left index finger pulley rupture, 15-day IL on May 30, retroactive to May 29)
  • LHP Tarik Skubal (left elbow strain, 60-day IL on March 14)
  • RHP Spencer Turnbull (neck discomfort, 60-day IL on May 12, retroactive to May 7)
  • RHP Trey Wingenter (right biceps tendinitis, 60-day IL on April 22, retroactive to April 19)

TONIGHT’S TIGERS STARTING PITCHER

19 Will Vest • 2-0, 3.20 ERA (25.1IP/9ER)

  • Vest will make his 23rd appearance and his second start of the season tonight at Minnesota.
  • Pitched in the series opener last night against the Twins, throwing a perfect inning with one strikeout.
  • Has faced the Twins 10 times in his career and has a 2.70 ERA (10.0IP/3ER) and five strikeouts…has not allowed a run in four career outings at Target Field, throwing 5.0 hitless innings with two walks and two strikeouts.
  • Has started three games in his Major League career, including one this season, and has allowed two runs on five hits with two walks and
    two strikeouts in 2.2 innings. • Did not allow a run in his first eight outings with the Tigers this season, throwing 10.1 scoreless innings.

MINNESOTA TWINS NOTES:

THE TWINS: Began their 10-game homestand with a two-game series sweep over the Brewers, followed by a loss to the Tigers last night…tonight, they will continue the homestand with the second of four games against the Tigers through the weekend…after this series, the Twins will
welcome the Red Sox to Target Field for four games from Monday-Thursday…the Twins have gone 20-15 at home and 15-19 on the road.

The Twins are on game four of a 16 games in 16 days stretch, their next off-day being in Baltimore on June 29…the Twins have 22 games in 24 days leading up to the All-Star Break (July 10-13).

(T-)PAINFUL DEFEAT: The Twins lost to the Tigers last night at Target Field and in front of T-Pain, by a score of 8-4…Sonny Gray was the starter but did not factor into the decision, allowing two runs on three hits in 4.0 innings pitched, with four walks and three strikeouts, exiting after 79 pitches…Jovani Moran (0-2) was issued the loss, allowing three runs on three hits in 1.0 inning of relief…the offense recorded seven hits and walked just once…Willi Castro played his first game against his former team, going 2-for-3 with a double, an RBI and a run scored.

TWINS AND TIGERS: The Twins and Tigers are playing the second of 13 meetings in 2023…Twins went 11-8 against Detroit last season, going 7-2 at Target Field and 4-6 at Comerica Park.

Six of the Twins next 10 games will be against Detroit as they will travel to Michigan for a three-game series next weekend to kick-off a nine-game roadtrip.

Carlos Correa is hitting .340 (18-for-53) with five doubles, two home runs, nine RBI and a .954 OPS in his last 13 games vs. the Tigers.

Michael A. Taylor is hitting .325 (13-for-40) with an .886 OPS in his last 12 games vs. Detroit.

Christian Vázquez is hitting .329 (26-for-79) with seven doubles, three home runs, 15 RBI and a .902 OPS in 23 career games vs. the Tigers.

C4 IGNITING: Carlos Correa hit a go-ahead grand slam on Saturday at Toronto, a walk-off home run Tuesday night against Milwaukee and the game-tying triple Wednesday afternoon vs. Milwaukee…he has hit safely in each of his last seven games, hitting .321 (9-for-28) with three doubles, one triple, three home runs, 10 RBI, a .387 on-base percentage, an .821 slugging percentage and a 1.209 OPS in that span…he also has an extra-base hit in a season-high-tying five-straight games, one shy of his career-best streak…since May 10, he has raised his batting average 34 points, from .185 to .219 in 27 games…below are his first 32 games and last 27 games (since May 10) by comparison:

AVG H 2B HR RBI BB K OBP SLG OPS OPS w/ RISP
FIRST 32 .185 23 5 5 15 13 30 .261 .363 .624 .499
LAST 27 .260 26 10 4 19 15 32 .357 .500 .857 .976

PITCHING-IN IN 2023: Twins starters have averaged 5.6 innings-per-outing, up from 4.8 in 2022…they have pitched 6.0-plus innings 39 times this season, which matches their total from last season…by June 16, 2022, they had reached 6.0-plus just 16 times…additionally, below are the starting staff’s rankings in a few categories among other AL teams:

INNINGS ERA BAA BB/9.0 FIP WHIP K’s OPS
HOU – 392.1 TB – 3.11 TB – .222 SEA – 2.09 TB – 3.45 MIN – 1.13 MIN – 410 TB – .641
MIN – 389.0 HOU – 3.26 MIN – .230 MIN – 2.41 MIN – 3.47 TB – 1.14 CWS – 402 MIN – .659
TOR – 388.2 TEX – 3.36 TEX – .237 BAL – 2.63 SEA – 3.59 SEA – 1.15 TOR – 393 SEA – .676
TEX – 388.1 MIN – 3.56 NYY – .237 TEX – 2.67 TEX – 3.86 TEX – 1.17 HOU – 381 TEX – .685
CWS – 380.0 TOR – 4.03 CWS – .239 CLE – 2.73 HOU – 3.90 HOU – 1.22 LAA – 367 HOU – .708

JOE CY-AN: Through 13 starts, Joe Ryan has gone 7-3, 2.90 ERA (77.2 IP, 25 ER) with 15 walks, 84 strikeouts and a 0.97 WHIP…of his six home runs allowed, just two have come in his last nine starts (Bregman and McCormick on 5/30 at HOU)…the Twins are 8-5 in his starts, but have gone 1-2 in his last three…below are a few of his rankings among all AL starters:

OPS SLG WHIP FIP WAR K/BB
Ryan – .563 S. Gray – .311 Wells – 0.86 Gray – 2.52 Gausman – 3.0 Kirby – 11.83
Rodriguez – .563 Rodriguez – .311 J. Gray – 0.96 Gausman – 2.54 Eovaldi – 3.0 Gilbert – 6.23
Valdez – .600 Ryan – .313 Ryan – 0.97 Ryan – 2.74 Valdez – 2.9 Greinke – 6.00
J. Gray – .605 Ohtani – .322 Rodriguez – 0.98 Valdez – 2.80 S. Gray – 2.7 Ryan – 5.60
Ohtani – .610 Valdez – .327 Eovaldi – 0.98 Eovaldi – 2.81 Ryan – 2.5 Gausman – 5.32

ADDITIONALLY: Ryan has a .210 opponent batting average on his fastball this season, the eighth lowest in the AL…also, he has the sixth lowest BAA on off-speed at .163.

RUN THE JULS: Since being recalled from Triple-A St. Paul on Saturday, Edouard Julien is hitting .400 (6-for-15) with four doubles, four walks, a .526 on-base percentage and a 1.193 OPS in five games…in his last 12 major league games (dating back to May 24), he is hitting .317 (13-for-41) with six doubles, two home runs, four RBI, nine walks, a .431 on-base percentage, a .610 slugging percentage and a 1.041 OPS.

OH D!: Donovan Solano homered for the second time in his last four games last night after going homerless in his first 54 games to start the season…he has reached safely in each of his last six games, hitting .421 (8-for-19) with two doubles, two home runs, six RBI, six walks, a .560 on-base percentage, an .842 slugging percentage and a 1.402 OPS in that span.

RUNNING MAN: Twins have stolen 35 bases in 41 attempts this season, for a 85.4 success rate, best in the AL and third best in baseball…since May 15, they have successfully stolen a club-record 25 consecutive bases, their last caught stealing being Ryan Jeffers on May 13 vs. Chicago-NL (Barnhart/Wesneski)…their previous successful stolen base streak was 21, from September 25, 2006-April 21, 2007 (Elias)…the longest streak in baseball this season is Tampa Bay’s streak of 35, which was snapped on June 11.

JOEY METRICS: Joey Gallo has an average exit velocity of 93.6 mph, ranking sixth best in the AL and eighth best in baseball…additionally, he ranks fourth in baseball in hard hit percentage at 58.5%…Gallo leads the Twins in both home runs (11) and slugging percentage (.476).

Gallo has an average exit velocity of 95.7 mph on fastballs, the ninth best in baseball.

THIS AND THAT:
Twins have won four of their last six games overall.

Twins have averaged 6.0 runs-per-game in their last five (30 runs scored)…they have an OPS of .862 in that five-game span

STARTING PITCHER – JOE RYAN 41
2023: 7-3, 2.90 ERA CAREER: 22-12, 3.40 ERA

Making his 14th start and appearance of 2023 and his sixth home start of the year…also his 46th career start and appearance.

Facing Detroit for the first time this season and sixth time in his career; is 4-0, 2.54 ERA (28.1 IP, 8 ER) with five walks and 38 strikeouts in five previous starts vs. the Tigers.

Owns most strikeouts (265) and second-most wins (22) through a pitcher’s first 45 career games in Twins history (since 1961).

LAST TIME OUT: Recorded his team-leading 10th quality start of the season but took a no-decision on June 10 at Toronto as the Twins won 9-4 at Rogers Centre; went 6.0 innings, allowing three runs on six hits, with one walk and four strikeouts…opposed Trevor Richards who tossed 3.0 shutout innings as an opener…allowed an RBI single to leftfielder Whit Merrifield in the second inning and first base- man Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in the third inning…allowed a sacrifice fly to pinch hitter Nathan Lukes in the fifth then retired the final four batters he faced, including recording his only 1-2-3 inning of his outing in the sixth inning…was relieved by Jorge López in the bottom of the seventh with Minnesota trailing 3-1; Twins rallied for seven runs in the top of the eighth, winning the game and the series.

Looking to avoid a career-high three-game losing streak tonight; seeking his first win since May 24 vs. San Francisco…has not earned the win in his last three starts, just the second time in his career that he has gone winless in a three-start span (also, 0-0 from July 1-13, 2022).

TWO STARTS AGO: Lost his second-straight start on June 4 vs. Cleveland at Target Field in a 2-1 Twins defeat; went 6.2 innings, allowing two runs on two hits, with one walk and four strikeouts…retired 19 of the first 20 batters he faced, allowing only an infield single to rightfielder Will Brennan in the top of the third inning and facing the minimum through 6.2 innings…issued a two-out walk to third baseman José Ramírez in the top of the seventh inning, then allowed an RBI double to designated hitter Josh Naylor to end his outing…was relieved by Caleb Thielbar, who allowed one inherited runner to score…Minnesota fell in the series finale despite outhitting the Guardians five to three and split the four-game series two games to two.

Marked just the second time in his career in which he lost back-to-back starts, also taking the loss in consecutive outings on August 31, 2022 vs. Boston and September 7, 2022 at New York-AL; is now 8-2, 1.94 ERA (65.0 IP, 14 ER) with 14 walks and 72 strikeouts in 11 career starts following a loss.

TIGER TAMER: Ryan is undefeated in his career against Detroit, going 4-0, 2.54 ERA (28.1 IP, 8 ER) with five walks and 38 strikeouts in five previous starts vs. the Tigers…was a perfect 4-0 in four starts vs. Detroit in 2022 with a 0.76 ERA (23.2 IP, 2 ER), three walks and 33 strikeouts…became the fifth pitcher in Twins history (since 1961) with a sub-1.00 ERA vs. any single opponent in a season (min. 4 GS), joining Camilo Pascual (0.65 ERA vs. WAS in 1965), Joe Mays (0.98 ERA vs. DET in 2001), Johan Santana (0.92 ERA vs. CWS in 2005) and Ervin Santana (0.38 ERA vs. CLE in 2017).

Last faced the Tigers on September 30, 2022, earning the win in the Twins’ 7-0 victory at Comerica Park (6.0 IP, 0 R, 5 H, 1 BB, 8 K).

CENTRAL HEATING: In 19 career starts vs. the American League Central division, Ryan is 12-2 with a 1.84 ERA (112.2 IP, 23 ER), 23 walks, 114 strikeouts and a .173 (69-for-398) opponent batting average…his 1.84 ERA vs. the AL Central is his lowest against any division in his career…among pitchers who have started at least 10 games against the AL Central, he owns the fourth-lowest ERA and eighth-highest win percentage in baseball since the division was formed in 1994.

ON TARGET: Making his sixth start at Target Field this season; has gone 4-1, 2.35 ERA (30.2 IP, 8 ER) with five walks and 35 strikeouts in his five home starts…his 2.35 home ERA ranks 10th best in the American League this year (min. 5 home starts)…snapped his career-long five-game home winning streak in his last start at Target Field, losing to Cleveland on June 4 (6.2 IP, 2 R/ER, 2 H, 1 BB, 4 K)…Twins have gone 12-3 in his last 15 home starts dating back to June 26, 2022, with Ryan going 9-3, 2.70 ERA (86.2 IP, 26 ER) with 23 walks and 97 strikeouts in that span…is 3-2, 3.26 ERA (47.0 IP, 17 ER) with 10 walks and 49 strikeouts in eight road starts in 2023.

Ryan has gone 11-6 with a 3.23 ERA (128.1 IP, 46 ER), 38 walks and 140 strikeouts in 23 career home starts…has similar numbers in 22 career road starts, going 11-6 with a 3.59 ERA (123.0 IP, 49 ER), 29 walks and 125 strikeouts.

LEFT/RIGHT: Left-handed hitters are batting just .204 (28-for-137) with a .544 OPS and 32 strikeouts against Ryan this year…his .544 opponent OPS against lefties ranks ninth in the American League this season…right-handed hitters are hitting .212 (32-for-151) with a .580 OPS and 52 strikeouts… his .208 (60-for-288) overall opponent batting average in 2023 ranks eighth in the American League and 12th in baseball, among qualified pitchers.

Over his career, Ryan has slightly better splits against left-handed hitters than righties, with lefties batting just .197 (89-for-451) with a .604 OPS since his debut in 2021…right-handed hitters are hitting .213 (102-for-478) with a .639 OPS off Ryan.

THE ARSENAL: Ryan has utilized a four-pitch mix in his first 13 starts of the 2023 season…has leaned on his four-seam fastball and split finger, combining to throw the two pitches 86.2 percent of the time this year…batters swung at 57.1 percent (48/84) of his pitches in his last start on June 10 at Toronto, his highest opponent swing percentage in a start since May 19 at Los Angeles-AL (61.7%) and his fifth-highest opponent swing percentage of the season…here’s a look at Ryan’s repertoire, per Baseball Savant:

PITCH (AVG. MPH) PCT. (# OF PITCHES, VS. RHB/LHB) RESULTS
4-Seam Fastball (92.5)………….58.1% (694 pitches, 347/347).. .210 (34-for-162), 6 2B, 4 HR, 53 K Split Finger (83.4)…………………28.1% (335 pitches, 126/209)………… .163 (16-for-98), 4 2B, 23 K Sweeper (78.8)…………………………8.1% (97 pitches, 80/17)……….. .286 (4-for-14), 1 2B, 1 HR, 3 K Slider (82.6)…………………………….5.7% (68 pitches, 53/15)……….. .462 (6-for-13), 1 2B, 1 HR, 4 K

Ryan’s four-seam fastball has accumulated a run value of -13 this season, tied with HOU’s Cristian Javier for the second-best run value on a four-seam fastball in the majors according to Baseball Savant, trailing only NYY’s Gerrit Cole (-15)…also has a run value of -8 on his splitter, the third-best run value on a splitter in baseball behind only TOR’s Erik Swanson (-10) and SF’s Alex Cobb (-10).

RUNS FOR RYAN: Ryan has received 58 runs of support this year for a run support average per 9.0 innings of 6.72…his 6.72 run support average is the fourth highest in the American League, trailing only TEX’s Martin Perez (9.08), TB’s Shane McClanahan (7.40) and TEX’s Nathan Eovaldi (7.11)… from 2021-22, Ryan’s run support average was 4.46, second lowest among Twins who made at least 15 starts during that span.

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