Tuesday, September 17, 2024
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MLB Preview: Cleveland Guardians (56-62) at Tampa Bay Rays (71-48)

CLEVELAND GUARDIANS NOTES:

RAYS BEST GUARDS WITH SECOND STRAIGHT WALKOFF
For a second consecutive consecutive contest, the Cleveland Guardians shouldered a walk-off loss at the hands of the Tampa Bay Rays, falling 6-5 on Saturday afternoon at Tropicana Field… Cleveland is 0-2 to begin a 5-game, 6-day swim thru Tampa Bay (0- 2, one-to-play) and Cincinnati (2G)…club has gone 11-8-3 over last 22 series (+1G above .500/35-34 record since May 26).

Trailing 5-3 entering the bottom of the 9th, Tampa Bay rallied for a trio of runs on 4 hits and a wild pitch against EMMANUEL CLASE, who was charged with his 9th blown save of 2023…Randy Arozarena ended the game with a looping RBI-single that landed just shy of a diving RAMÓN LAUREANO in right field, following run-scoring knocks by Yandy Díaz (double) and Brandon Lowe (single) earlier in the rally…the late rally neutralized yet another dominant performance by Guardians starter GAVIN WILLIAMS (5.0IP, 5H, 1R-ER, 0BB, 10SO, HR, HB, 87 pitches), who notched a doubledigit strikeout total for a second straight outing and held the Rays offense to just a single tally that came on Luke Raley’s solo homer (16) in the 4th…the Guardians held leads of 1-0, 3-1 and 5-2 at different junctures…BRAYAN ROCCHIO and OSCAR GONZALEZ delivered the Guards’ first 2 tallies with sac flies in the 3rd and 6th innings, respectively…Cleveland’s offense pounded out 13 hits in a starter-by-committee game for the Rays, getting multi-hit efforts from six different players, including newest additions in Laureano and KOLE CALHOUN…Calhoun and CAM GALLAGHER each delivered RBI-singles in the 8th.

Cleveland (56-62) sits in 2nd place in AL Central standings, 4.5 games behind 2nd-place Minnesota (61-58) and 2.5 games ahead of 3rd-place Detroit (-7.0G, 53-64)…despite dropping 11 of last 15, Guardians have still won 24 of 48, 31 of 61 and 35 of last 69…have also dropped 56 of last 103 overall since starting year 9-6.

TROUBLE AT THE TROP
The Guardians look to avoid getting swept for the fourth time this season with a win in Sunday’s matinee…the club was last swept by Houston from July 31-August 2…Cleveland has not been swept at Tropicana Field since dropping all 3 games against the Rays from July 5-7, 2021 during a stretch when the Guardians lost 11 straight to Tampa Bay from May 25, 2019 to July 24, 2021…during the Terry Francona era, Cleveland is 28-32 against Tampa Bay and 15-16 at Tropicana Field…overall, the Guards are 101-78 all-time against the Rays.

GAVIN THE GREAT
Following his 10 strikeout performance in last night’s contest, GAVIN WILLIAMS became the 3rd rookie in franchise history to tally 10+ strikeouts in back-to-back starts (22SO)…Herb Score turned the trick twice in 1955, tallying 26 total strikeouts in back-to-back starts on May 1 and May 6, 1955, and recording 24 total strikeouts on August 31 and September 5, 1955…Bob Feller accomplished the feat in 1936, striking out 27 total batters from September 7-13, 1936…among Cleveland pitchers in their first 10 \career games, Williams has the 3rd-most strikeouts (59), trailing Danny Salazar (65) and Score (92), and the 4th-lowest ERA (2.80, 17ER, 54.2 IP), behind Luis Tiant (2.52), Aaron Civale (2.34) and Gene Bearden (2.18).

Among MLB rookie starters, Williams ranks 2nd in H/9 (6.91), 3rd in opposing batting average (.213), 4th in ERA (2.80), 5th in WHIP (1.17) and 7th in SO/9 (9.71)…he has allowed 3-or-fewer earned runs in 8 of his 10 starts and has not allowed 4-or-more earned runs in a start since July 3.

I SAID I’M ABOUT TO GO TO WAR
Cleveland has 3 pitchers ranking in the top 5 in AL rookie starting pitcher bWAR with TANNER BIBEE in 1st (2.5), GAVIN WILLIAMS in 4th (1.4) and LOGAN ALLEN in 5th (1.3)…Houston’s J.P. France (2.3, 2nd) and Hunter Brown (1.5, 3rd) round out the top 5…among American League rookies, Bibee ranks 3rd in bWAR, behind NYY’s Anthony Volpe and BAL’s Gunnar Henderson.

AL ROOKIE bWAR LEADERS
NAME TEAM POS bWAR
Gunnar Henderson BAL SS 3.4
Anthony Volpe NYY SS 2.7
TANNER BIBEE CLE RHP 2.5
Yennier Cano BAL RHP 2.4
Josh Jung TEX 3B 2.3

KWAN-TUM MECHANICS
After heading into the All-Star break hitting .263 (94-for-358) with 2 home runs, 27 RBI and a .685 OPS, STEVEN KWAN is batting .297 (33-for-111) with 3 home runs, 12 RBI and a .844 OPS in his 27 games in the second half…his .844 OPS leads the club during this stretch…he’s hit safely in 19 of 27 games in the second half and is T4th in the American League with HOU’s Kyle Tucker with 33 hits during this span.

Kwan led the club’s qualified hitters with 4.05 pitches per plate appearance in the 1st half…in the 20 games since the start of the second half, Kwan has seen 3.54 pitches per plate appearance, a 0.51 difference, and the largest difference among Cleveland’s qualified hitters.

He has shown success this season hitting early in counts, batting .382 (13-for-34) with a .900 OPS on the first pitch…with the count 0-1, he owns a .296 (21-for-71) batting average…most notably, when the count is 1-0, Kwan is hitting .520 (13-for-25) with a 1.320 OPS.

LET’S GET IT STARTED
In the second half, the Guardians’ starting rotation has held opponents to 2-or-fewer earned runs in 23 of its 27 starts since July 14…they have lasted 5.0-or-more innings in 22 of their 27 starts since the All-Star break, with 3 of those 5 outings being XZAVION CURRY’s spot starts…the 2.74 ERA from the rotation (46ER/151.0IP) to start the second half is the lowest in MLB, 61 points lower than the next-best team (Toronto, 3.35)…the table above shows how Cleveland’s starting pitching ranks among MLB teams since the All-Star break.

DOUBLE TROUBLE
Since the Trade Deadline on August 1, the Guardians have turned 12 double plays in 11 games – T4th in the American league with Kansas City…Toronto leads MLB with 15 double plays…prior to the deadline, Cleveland ranked 27th in double plays turned with 75 in 107 games…since the deadline, Cleveland is turning 1.09 double plays per game, compared to a 0.7 rate prior.

TODAY’S STARTER – #61 TANNER BIBEE RHP

BIBEE ON THE ROAD
W-L ERA G GS IP H R ER BB SO
2023 3-1 4.25 9 9 48.2 53 23 23 19 48
Career 3-1 4.25 9 9 48.2 53 23 23 19 48

BIBEE’S MLB CAREER
W-L ERA G GS IP H R ER BB SO
2023 8-2 2.92 18 18 101.2 89 35 33 35 101
Career 8-2 2.92 18 18 101.2 89 35 33 35 101

TODAY’S START
The 24-year-old right-hander is scheduled to make his 19th career start, 10th on the road, in the finale of this 3-game set with the Tampa Bay Rays…marks his first career start against the Rays and his fourth start against the AL East…is 2-0 with a 1.56 ERA (3ER/17.1IP), 13 strikeouts and 2 walks in his 3 starts against the
division…Bibee ranks among MLB rookie starting pitchers (min. 65.0IP) in win percentage (.800, 1st), wins (8, 2nd), ERA (2.92, 2nd), batting average (.233, 4th) and H/9 (7.88, 4th)…is looking to join HOU’s J.P. France as the only rookies to win 7 straight decisions this season.

He was originally selected by Cleveland in the 5th round (156th overall) of the 2021 MLB Draft out of Cal State Fullerton… entered the 2023 season as Cleveland’s #5 prospect according to MLB.com…he is starting on 4 days’ rest; is 2-0 with a 4.15 ERA (10ER/21.2IP) in 4 starts on 4 days’ rest.

LAST TIME OUT
Bibee took on the Blue Jays in his previous start on August 8 in Cleveland and earned his 8th win of the season…tossed 7.0 shutout innings while allowing 6 hits and striking out 6…he allowed singles in the 1st to Whit Merrifield and George Springer, then recorded a 1-2-3 inning in the 2nd…Toronto countered with 3 straight one-out singles in the 3rd from Merrifield, Brandon Belt and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., but Bibee escaped the bases loaded jam with 2 strikeouts…he retired 11 of the last 13 hitters he faced in the 4th-7th innings, the lone blemishes being a Merrifield single and Santiago Espinal hit by pitch…Bibee and fellow rookie arm GAVIN WILLIAMS became the first duo of Cleveland rookies to throw 7.0-scoreless innings in back-to-back starts since Albie Lopez and Jeff Mutis on July 17-18, 1993.

THE SUMMER OF TANNER
Per Elias, Bibee (8-2, 17GS) joins Vean Gregg (8-2, 1911), Luis Tiant (8-2, 1964) and SHANE BIEBER (8-2, 2018) as one of 4 Cleveland starters to win 8 of their irst 10 career decisions… he is also the 5th Cleveland rookie starter to win 6+ consecutive decisions, last done by Jeremy Sowers in 2006…has the 2ndlowest ERA (2.92, min. 15GS) of any Cleveland pitcher in their first 18 games, trailing Tiant (2.90)…ranks T5th with TRISTON MCKENZIE (101) for most strikeouts within a Cleveland pitcher’s first 18 career games, trailing Greg Swindell (105), Bieber (108), Danny Salazar (112) and Herb Score (139)…his 11 games of 6+ strikeouts in his first 18 starts are T2nd in club history with Bieber and Salazar, all of whom trail Score (15).

Bibee is the first pitcher in Cleveland history and the 7th pitcher in MLB history to make 16 starts of 5.0+ innings and 3-or-fewer runs within their first 18 career starts, last done by Steven Matz in 2016 while he was with New York-NL…is also the first pitcher in Cleveland history and one of 10 pitchers in MLB history with 5 outings of 7+ strikeouts and 3-or-fewer hits in their first 18 career games, last done by BOS’s Tanner Houck in 2021.

THESE ARE MY TOOLS
Since June 24, Bibee is 5-0 with a 1.68 ERA (9ER/48.1IP) in 8 starts, leading the AL and ranking 2nd in MLB during the stretch, trailing SD’s Blake Snell (1.65)…is holding hitters to a .205 batting average (36-for-176) and a .581 OPS…has allowed 2-or-fewer runs in 7 of his last 8 starts.

Over his last 9 outings, his 4-seam fastball is holding hitters to a .186 average (18-for-97) with 27 strikeouts…his breaking balls have had success as well, limiting hitters to a .200 average (14- for-70) with 19 strikeouts and an average exit velocity of 85.2mph during the span…overall this season, opposing batters are hitting .223 (29-for-130) against breaking balls and .232 (44-for-190) against the fastball (Baseball Savant).

TAMPA BAY RAYS NOTES:

RALLY RAYS — Facing a 5-3 deficit in the ninth inning, the Rays staged a three-run comeback en route to a 6-5 walk-off win over the Guardians on Saturday at Tropicana Field…LF Randy Arozarena (1-for-4, R, RBI) tallied the decisive blow, a two-out RBI-single to notch his third walk-off plate appearance of the campaign…RF Luke Raley (2-for-3, 2B, HR, 2RBI, R, BB) was responsible for the Rays lone run against Cleveland starter RHP Gavin Williams, a fourth-inning solo homer that snapped a career-long 24-game homerless streak, marking his first long ball since 7/5 vs. Philadelphia…Raley later added a run-scoring double in the eighth, bringing Tampa Bay back within a pair of runs, 5-3…1B Yandy Díaz (3-for-4, 2 2B, RBI, R) sparked the ninth-inning rally with a run-scoring double before 2B Brandon Lowe (2-for-5, R, RBI) tied the score at 5-5 with an infield RBI-single, setting the table for Arozarena’s walk-off hit.

RHP Shawn Armstrong (2.0IP, 2H, 0R, BB, 3SO) worked a pair of scoreless innings in his seventh career start…LHP Josh Fleming (3.0IP, 5H, 2R, SO) earned the win in his return from the injured list, tossing the final 3.0 frames.

It marked Tampa Bay’s sixth walk-off win of the season, tied with four other clubs for fourth most in the majors, trailing Minnesota (9), Philadelphia (7) and Miami (7)… Arozarena’s three walk-off plate appearances are tied with BOS Alex Verdugo for most in MLB…he entered the season with zero such plate appearances in his career.

It marked the Rays fourth victory of the season when trailing entering the ninth inning (also: 4/4 at WSH, 4/21 vs. CWS, 6/28 at AZ).

RAY MATTER — The Rays are 9-5 in their last 14 games following an MLB-worst 5-15 (.250) stretch from 7/1-26…they are 2.0 games behind first-place Baltimore in the AL East after spending 113 consecutive days atop the division from 3/30-7/21…the Rays are on the tail end of a stretch of three straight series against clubs below the .500 mark, having gone 5-3 in three-game sets vs. Detroit (2-1), St. Louis (1-2) and Cleveland (2-0) thus far.

Today’s contest will mark the fourth straight game Tampa Bay has been opposed by a rookie starting pitcher, the club’s longest such streak since 8/16-20, 2009 (4G)…the Rays are 15-7 when facing rookie starters this season.

The Rays are 7-2 in their last nine games against AL Central opponents following a 4-3 stretch from 4/30-6/24…they opened the year with a nine-game winning streak against the division and have gone 13-2 against AL Central foes at Tropicana Field, with the only losses coming on 6/22 & 6/24 vs. Kansas City.

Despite a 6-11 mark over their last 17 games at Tropicana Field, the Rays 40-21 (.650) home record is second best in MLB, trailing only the Rangers (40-20/.667).

The Rays, who led the majors with 109 games played from March through July, have six off days in August (four remaining), more than any other major league club…Milwaukee is next closest with five scheduled off days.

Following today’s contest, the Rays will embark on their third and final West Coast trip of the season through San Francisco (8/14-16) and Los Angeles-AL (8/18-20).

SERIES STUFF — Last night’s win secured Tampa Bay’s first home series victory since 6/9-11 vs. Texas, snapping a streak of seven straight sets at Tropicana Field without a series win (0-4-3), tied for the second-longest skid in club history behind an 11-series run from 7/11-9/12, 2002 (Elias)…the Rays have now won four of their last five series, going 9-5 overall in that span…they are seeking their eighth series sweep of the season this afternoon, seven of which have come at home — the lone outlier was a three-game sweep at Nationals Park from 4/3-5.

The Rays seven sweeps are tied with four other clubs for fourth most in MLB, behind the Braves (11), Dodgers (9) and Rangers (8)…it would mark the Rays first series sweep since 6/6-8 vs. Minnesota.

Tampa Bay has entered the final game of a series with an opportunity for a sweep 12 times, going 7-5 in those contests, including three straight losses (7/16 at KC, 7/26 vs. MIA, 8/2 at NYY).

RETURN OF THE BATS—On the heels of a stretch in which they averaged an MLB-low 3.30 runs per game from 7/1-26, the Rays are plating 5.21 runs per contest over their last 15 games since 7/26, third most in the AL during that timeframe behind the Astros (6.33) and Royals (5.80)…they have scored 6+ runs in back-to-back games for the first time since 7/9-15 (G1)…Tampa Bay is batting .319 (22-for-69) with runners in scoring position over its last eight games since 8/4 after hitting .183 (23-for-126) with RISP in their first 18 games after the All-Star break (7/15-8/2).

The Rays have stolen multiple bases in three straight games for the first time since 5/24-26…they have been successful on each of their last nine stolen base attempts dating back to 7/31 at New York-AL.

WON BY ONE — Tampa Bay has won three straight one-run games (7/28 at HOU, 8/11-12 vs. CLE) for the first time since another three-game streak from 4/28-5/5…from 6/8-7/27, the Rays dropped nine of their 11 one-run contests…the current streak comes after the Rays lost five straight one-run contests from 7/2-22, their longest skid since 6/1-10, 2018 (5G).

On the season, the Rays 17 one-run victories are tied for fourth most in the AL… their 36 one-run contests are tied with the White Sox for fourth most in the AL, behind the Guardians (45G), Athletics (40G) and Mariners (37G).

ONE-TWO PUNCH — Yandy Díaz and Wander Franco have been two of the AL’s hottest hitters as of late…Díaz has hit safely in 10 of his last 12 games, batting .392 (20-for-51) over that stretch (since 7/30) with seven extra-base hits and 8 RBI…he is batting .500 (14-for-28) during his six-game hitting streak, recording a trio of 3+ hit games in that span, and has an extra-base hit in three straight games for the first time since 5/13-21 (4G)…meanwhile, Franco has gone 15-for-29 (.517) during his seven-game hitting streak, good for the AL’s second-best batting average in that stretch (since 8/5) behind HOU Jose Altuve (.536)…Franco has recorded a hit in 13 of his last 14 games since 7/28, slashing .411/.476/.804 (23-for-56) with two triples, six homers and 11 RBI; his 1.280 OPS in that span paces the AL and trails only ATL Matt Olson (1.424) in all of MLB.

On the season, the first and second spots in the Rays batting order lead the AL in batting average (.303), on-base pct. (.374), OPS (.875) and hits (293).

EN GARDE! — The Rays have secured their first series victory over the Guardians since 7/22-25, 2021 at Progressive Field (3-1) and are now seeking their first sweep over Cleveland since 7/5-7, 2021 at Tropicana Field…despite a 4-5 record over the last nine meetings, Tampa Bay is 20-7 (.741) over the last 27 matchups between the two clubs dating back to 9/1/18 (11-3 at home), its best record against any AL opponent during that timeframe, ahead of Los Angeles-AL (15-6/.714)…including the postseason, Tampa Bay and Cleveland have played in seven straight one-run games, with the Rays going 3-4 (3-1 at home)…per Elias, it marks the longest streak of consecutive one-run games against a single opponent in club history (incl. postseason).

The Rays have won three of the last four season series since 2018 (clubs did not meet in 2020) after dropping four straight from 2014-17…including the current set, they are 8-2-0 in their last 10 series overall against the Guardians.

Yandy Díaz leads the majors with a .449 (31-for-69) batting average against AL Central opponents (min. 50AB), ahead of KC Freddy Fermin (.418).

TODAY’S STARTER: RHP ZACH EFLIN (12-6, 3.34)
TODAY’S START — The right-hander makes his 23rd start of the season, including his 14th at home, in today’s series finale at Tropicana Field… leads MLB with a 0.97 WHIP while ranking among AL leaders in wins (1st, 12), baserunners allowed/9.0 IP (1st, 8.91), pitches/IP (1st, 14.1), SO/BB (2nd, 7.59), BB/9.0 IP (2nd, 1.18) and opp. AVG (6th, .226)…his 10 wins at home are tied with ARI Zac Gallen for the MLB lead.

LAST TIME OUT — Did not factor into the decision on 8/8 vs. St. Louis after tossing 7.0 innings, allowing one run on four hits with no walks and eight strikeouts.

Recorded his 129th strikeout of the year, matching his career-high total from 2019.

His 7.0 innings matched a season high (7x, last 7/21 vs. BAL)…had a career-best eight starts going 7.0+ innings in 2019.

LAST MAN STADING—Eflin will be making his first career appearance against Cleveland.

In nine appearances (8 starts) against the AL Central, Eflin is 6-1 with a 2.40 ERA (48.2IP, 13ER)…this includes going 4-1 with a 3.52 ERA (30.2IP, 12ER) in six starts against the division this season.

NO PLACE LIKE HOME — Eflin has gone 10-2 with a 2.49 ERA (79.2IP, 22ER) in 13 starts at Tropicana Field this season…it marks the third-lowest ERA through a pitcher’s first 13 home starts with the Rays, trailing Jeremy Hellickson (2.36 from 2010-2011) and Matt Garza (2.47 in 2008).

On 7/21 vs. Baltimore, Eflin became one of four pitchers in the Expansion Era (since 1961) to earn a win in 10 of his first 11 home starts with a club, joining NYY Orlando Hernández (10-1, 1998-99), CHC Rick Sutcliffe (10-0, 1984-85) and SF Billy Pierce (11-0, 1962).

Min. 65.0 IP, Eflin ranks among MLB leaders at home in WHIP (1st, 0.84), wins (T1st, 10), walk rate (2nd, 2.6%), SO/BB ratio (2nd, 10.38), opponent OPS (3rd, .557) and ERA (4th).

DIALED IN — He has an MLB-best six starts this season in which he has recorded seven or more strikeouts without issuing a walk (last: 8SO on 8/8 vs. STL)…prior to this season, the most starts in which he had 7+ strikeouts and no walks in a single season was two in 2021.

He is tied with Shane McClanahan (2022) for the second-most such starts in a season by a Ray in franchise history, trailing David Price’s seven outings in 2014.

QUALITY CONTROL — Eflin’s 7.59 SO/BB ratio ranks second in the majors behind SEA George Kirby (9.36)…in Rays history, the only qualified pitcher with a higher mark over a full season was David Price in 2012 (8.22)…Eflin has issued one or zero walks in each of his last eight starts, tied for the second-longest streak of his career (also 8GS – 9/23/20-5/7/21).

He has walked two or fewer batters in each of his last 25 starts since 6/14/22, tied with CLE Noah Syndergaard for the second-longest active streak in MLB behind KC Zack Greinke (25GS)…Eflin has issued two or fewer walks in 58 of his last 59 starts dating back to 8/29/2020.

Since the beginning of 2021, his 3.8 pct. walk rate is the lowest in the majors (min. 1,100BF), outpacing Greinke (4.5%).

A LITTLE HELP? — The Rays, who are 16-6 in Eflin’s starts, won 10 of his first 11 outings while providing him with 7.70 runs of support per 9.0 IP from the beginning of the season through 6/6, the second-highest run support average in the majors in that span (min. 60.0IP) behind only TEX Martín Pérez (9.13)…however, Tampa Bay is 6-5 in his last 10 starts since 6/12, recording a 3.73 RSA in that timeframe, the eighth-lowest mark by any AL pitcher (min. 50.0IP)…has received zero runs of support in five of is last 11 starts since 6/12.

TO THE LEFT, TO THE LEFT — He is holding left-handed batters to a .193 (46-for-238) average, compared to a .257 (63-for-245) mark against righthanded batters…min. 230 batters faced, his .193 opponent average against left-handed hitters is the lowest mark in the AL and fourth lowest in the majors behind MIL Corbin Burnes (.168), PHI Michael Lorenzen (.185) and CHC Marcus Stroman (.191).

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