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MLB Preview: Cleveland Guardians (56-60) at Tampa Bay Rays (69-48)

CLEVELAND GUARDIANS NOTES:

YOUTHFUL OFFENSE LEADS GUARDS TO WIN
Engaged in their third straight one-run affair, the Cleveland Guardians edged the Toronto Blue Jays by a 4-3 margin to take Thursday afternoon’s series finale at Progressive Field…Cleveland finished 3-4 on 7-game homestand against Chicago-AL (1-2) & Toronto (2-2)…club has gone 11-7-3 over last 21 series (+3G above .500/35-32 record since May 26).

Youth was served on offense for the Guardians, as BRYAN ROCCHIO and JOSÉ TENA each turned in multi-hit efforts to account for 4 of the club’s 5 hits on the day…Cleveland capitalized on a pair of 2nd-inning walks issued by Alek Manoah (4.0IP, 4H, 4RER, 3BB, 6SO, 93 pitches), as Rocchio followed Tena’s RBI-single with an RBI-double to make it 2-1…the same duo sparked a 2-run rally in the 5th, as Tena doubled to lead off the frame before scoring on Rocchio’s second RBI-double…Rocchio was later brought home on KOLE CALHOUN’s RBI-groundout…NOAH SYNDERGAARD extended a recent trend of effective starts by the Guardians rotation (1.21 ERA last 5G; 2.29 ERA last 11G), pitching deep into the 6th while holding the Jays offense to a single run (5.2IP, 6H, 1R-ER, 2BB, 5SO, HB, 87 pitches)…lone run allowed came as the result of a lead-off walk in the 2nd to Danny Jansen, who later scored on an RBI-single by Santiago Espinal…Toronto tightened the screws with a pair of runs in the 7th against ENYEL DE LOS SANTOS, who added a walk, a balk and a wild pitch alongside 3 hits, including Whit Merrifield’s RBI-double and an RBI-single from Brandon Belt.

Cleveland (56-60) sits in 2nd place in AL Central standings, 3.5 games behind 2nd-place Minnesota (60-57) and 3.5 games ahead of 3rd-place Detroit (-7.0G, 52-63)…despite dropping 9 of last 13, Guardians have still won 24 of 46, 31 of 59 and 35 of last 67…have also dropped 54 of last 101 overall since starting year 9-6.

DROP THE TROP ON THE CONVERTIBLE
The Cleveland Guardians travel to Tampa, Florida to take on the Tampa Bay Rays for a 3-game set at Tropicana Field…after an 11-game losing streak from May 25, 2019 to July 24, 2021, the Guards have won 5 of their last 7 contests against Tampa Bay… during the Terry Francona era, Cleveland is 28-30 against Tampa Bay and 15-14 at Tropicana Field…the Guardians are 101-76 all-time against the Rays.

After winning the AL Central in 2022, the Guardians took on the Rays in the AL Wild Card Series…in Game 1, SHANE BIEBER (7.2IP, 3H, 1R/ER, HR, BB, 8SO) and Shane McClanahan (7.0IP, 7H, 2R/ER, 5SO) dueled with Bieber emerging victorious, leading Cleveland to a 2-1 win…Game 2 lasted 15 innings, ending on a walkoff home run from OSCAR GONZALEZ and sending the Guards to the ALDS to face the Yankees.

LET’S GET IT STARTED
Cleveland is coming off of a 4-game series against Toronto in which the club’s starting pitching held the Blue Jays’ offense to 2 earned runs over 24.2 innings pitched…in the second half, the Guardians’ starting rotation has held opponents to 2-or-fewer earned runs in 22 of its 26 starts since July 14…they have lasted 5.0-or-more innings in 21 of their 26 starts since the All-Star break, with 3 of those 5 outings being XZAVION CURRY’s spot starts…the rotation’s 2.55 ERA (40ER/141.0IP) to start the second half is the lowest in MLB, 54 points lower than the next-best team (Toronto, 3.09)…the table above shows how Cleveland’s starting pitching ranks among MLB teams since the All-Star break.

RUMBLE, YOUNG MAN, RUMBLE
Cleveland is one of 2 MLB teams (also Oakland) to have 6 different rookies throw 30.0+ innings this season; TANNER BIBEE (101.2IP) LOGAN ALLEN (91.1IP), XZAVION CURRY (64.0IP), GAVIN WILLIAMS (49.2IP), PEYTON BATTENFIELD (34.2IP) and HUNTER GADDIS (31.1IP)…39.76% of Cleveland’s innings pitched this season 412.0IP/1036.1IP) have come via rookies, 2nd in MLB behind Oakland (41.88%)…the Guards rookies rank amongst MLB clubs’ rookies in wins (20, 1st), games started (60, 1st), strikeouts (376, 2nd) and innings pitched (412.0, 2nd).

In the first 3 games against Toronto, the trio of Williams, Bibee and Allen combined for a 0.47 ERA (1ER/19.0IP) with 21 strikeouts and 4 walks while allowing only 11 hits in their 19.0 innings of work… per Elias, Williams, Bibee and Allen are the first trio of Cleveland rookie starting pitchers to start in 3 consecutive games and allow a total of one earned run across the 3 starts since Stan Coveleski (9.0IP, 0ER), Al Gould (9.0, 0ER) and Jim Bagby (9.0IP, 1ER) on August 1-3, 1916.

DOUBLE TROUBLE
Since the Trade Deadline on August 1, the Guardians have turned 11 double plays in 9 games – T2nd in the American league with Houston, behind Boston (12)…Los Angeles-NL leads MLB with 13 double plays…prior to the deadline, Cleveland ranked 27th in double plays turned with 75 in 107 games…since the deadline, Cleveland is turning 1.22 double plays per game, compared to a 0.7 rate prior.

WELCOME TO CLASE, I’M YOUR CLOSER, EMMANUEL
EMMANUEL CLASE’s 97 career saves are 6th-most in club history…he is 7 saves away from José Mesa (104) for 5th-most in club history…his 31 saves (T1st in the AL/T3rd in MLB) are tied with BAL’s Felix Bautista, trailing CIN’s Alexis Diaz and SF’s Camilo Doval, who both have 33…his 54 appearances this season ranks T2nd in the AL/MLB with 5 other players…Clase has limited right-handed hitters to a .210 (22-for-105) average this season, compared to left-handed hitters’ .255 (25-for-98) clip against him… in his career, he has limited right-handers to a .194 average (84-for433) and left-handers to a .203 mark (77-for-377).

NO STRIKEOUTS HERE
Cleveland has struck out 803 times in 2023 and has a plate appearance per strikeout rate of 5.41, both the best marks in MLB ahead of Washington (831, 5.25)…the Guardians have struck out 5-or-fewer times in 33 games this season, the most of any MLB team ahead of Washington (28)…JOSÉ RAMÍREZ (9.88, 3rd) and STEVEN KWAN (9.05, 5th) both rank in the top-5 in PA/SO rate, while JOSH NAYLOR (6.84) ranks 17th. » The Guards are the only team in MLB to have 3 players rank in the top-15 for lowest swing and miss rate with Kwan (2nd, 11.2%), MYLES STRAW (6th, 14.2%) and Ramírez (12th, 15.0%) leading the charge…Kwan also leads MLB, ahead of BAL’s Adley Rutschman (11.4%), with a 11.1% first-pitch swing rate…since debuting in 2022, he leads MLB with a 9.9% first-pitch swing rate and ranks 2nd in MLB behind MIA’s Luis Arraez (7.7%) with a 10.0% swing and miss rate.

TONIGHT’S STARTER – #44 XZAVION CURRY RHP

CURRY ON THE ROAD
W-L ERA G GS IP H R ER BB SO
2023 1-1 3.30 14 2 30.0 30 12 11 7 21
Career 1-1 3.30 14 2 30.0 30 12 11 7 21

CURRY’S MLB CAREER
W-L ERA G GS IP H R ER BB SO
2023 3-1 2.95 29 4 64.0 57 23 21 17 45
Career 3-2 3.31 31 6 73.1 70 30 27 23 48

TONIGHT’S START
The 24-year-old right-hander is scheduled to make his fifth start of the season, seventh of his career, in the opener of this 3-game set with the Tampa Bay Rays – the first matchup between the clubs this season…in 4 starts this season, he owns a 2.57 ERA (4ER/14.0IP)…his last relief appearance came on August 1 at Houston (1.0IP, 2H, 0R/ER, 3SO).

Curry has served mainly as a reliever this season, owning a 3-0 record with a 3.06 ERA (17ER/50.0IP) in 25 relief appearances…16 of his relief appearances have been more than 1.0 inning.

Was selected in the 7th round (220th) of the 2019 MLB Draft out of Georgia Tech…made his Major League debut on August 15, 2022 against the Detroit Tigers, allowing 3 runs (earned) on 8 hits with 3 strikeouts and one walk.

LAST TIME OUT
Curry’s last start came on August 6 vs. Chicago-AL…he did not factor into the decision despite tying a career-high with 5.0 innings of work, while allowing 2 runs (earned) on 4 hits with a career-high 4 strikeouts…Curry faced all of his trouble in the 1st inning as Elvis Andrus led off the game with a double…after recording a strikeout, Luis Robert Jr. hit an RBI-triple that led to an Eloy Jiménez sacrifice fly…Curry retired 12 of the final 14 hitters he faced in the remainder of his outing, the lone blemishes being a 3rd-inning double from Andrus and a 4th-inning double from Gavin Sheets…marked the second time that Curry lasted 5.0-or-more innings in an outing in his career, the other coming on April 3 at Oakland (5.0IP).

THE X-FACTOR
Curry has previously faced the AL East four times this season… he owns a 1-0 record with a 4.66 ERA (5ER/9.2IP) in those four outings…his most recent appearance against the division was vs. Boston on June 8 in which he threw 2.0 innings of relief while allowing 3 hits and one run (earned) with a pair of strikeouts.

He has limited hitters to a .067 batting average, .100 OBP and .225 OPS in situations with RISP and 2 outs this season…the .100 OBP ranks 1st in MLB while his .225 OPS ranks 2nd in MLB behind BAL’s Felix Bautista (min. 25 BF)…is also holding hitters to a .140 average (8-for-57) with RISP this season.

LIMITING LEFTIES
Over his last 11 outings since June 23, Curry has handcuffed left-handed hitters, holding them to just 5 hits in 38 at-bats (.132) and a .513 OPS…conversely, right-handed hitters own a .254 average (15-for-59) with an .840 OPS during that stretch…overall, lefties are hitting .211 (23-for-109) with a .565 OPS against Curry this season while righties are batting .256 (34-for-133) with a .780 OPS, recording 6 of the 7 home runs he’s allowed this season.

CURRY’S ARSENAL
In 2023, Curry utilizes a traditional 4-pitch arsenal, primarily relying on his 4-Seam Fastball, adding in a curveball and slider as secondary offerings, and occasionally mixing in a changeup:

2023 XZAVION CURRY PITCH ARSENAL
Pitch #pitches RHB/LHB %usage AVG. velo BAA 4-Seam FB 476 244/232 48.7% 92.8 .245 (27-for-110) Slider 337 246/91 34.5% 85.5 .209 (18-for-86) Curveball 127 53/74 13.0% 75.2 .265 (9-for-34) Changeup 37 2/35 3.8% 88.1 .273 (3-for-11)

Curry’s 4-seamer has 13.2 inches of vertical drop, 2.3 inches more and 15% more than the average pitcher…per StatCast, his -9 run value on his 4-seamer is the best of any of his pitches.

TAMPA BAY RAYS NOTES:

TOO LITTLE, TOO LATE — The Rays dropped a 5-2 decision to the visiting Cardinals in Thursday night’s rubber match at Tropicana Field…RHP Zack Littell (6.0IP, 3H, 0R, 5SO) took the loss despite turning in his second consecutive quality start, departing after 6.0 frames with the Rays trailing, 3-0…St. Louis extended its lead to 5-0 in the ninth inning, but SS Wander Franco (2-for-4, 3B, RBI, R) broke the shutout bid with a run-scoring triple in the bottom half of the frame before coming around to score via a wild pitch… RHP Cooper Criswell (3.0IP, 4H, 2R, 1ER) tossed the final 3.0 innings for Tampa Bay.

LF Randy Arozarena (1-for-3, BB, 2SB) swiped his 69th and 70th stolen bases as a Ray in the opening inning, surpassing Miguel Cairo (69SB) for sole possession of eighth place on Tampa Bay’s all-time steals list.

The Rays have dropped eight of their last 11 Interleague affairs dating back to 7/4 vs. Philadelphia…they are 6-3 in their last nine games vs. AL opponents.

RAY MATTER — The Rays are 7-5 in their last 12 games following an MLB-worst 5-15 (.250) stretch from 7/1-26…they are a season-high-tying 3.0 games behind first- place Baltmore in the AL East after spending 113 days at the top of the division from 3/30- 7/21…the Rays are on the tail end of a stretch of three consecutive series against clubs below the .500 mark, having gone 3-3 in three-game sets vs. Detroit (2-1) and St. Louis (1-2) thus far…Tampa Bay went 6-9 (.400) across five straight series against clubs with winning records from 7/17-8/2 (2-2-1 in series play).

The Rays have won five straight series openers, their longest streak since winning 11 straight from 4/21-5/26…this comes on the heels of dropping seven of nine series-opening contests from 6/20-7/20.

Tampa Bay’s 25-12 (.676) record in series openers is tied with the Braves and Orioles (both 25-12) for second best in the majors, trailing the Dodgers (27-11, .711)… since 2019, the Rays are 127-84 (.602) in series-opening games, third best in the majors behind the Dodgers (141-70/.668) and Astros (140-73/.657).

The Rays, who led the majors with 109 games played from March through July, have six off days in August (four remaining), more than any other major league club…Milwaukee is next closest with five scheduled off days.

The Rays have plated 4+ runs in nine of their last 12 games, averaging 4.84 runs per game in that span…prior to that stretch, Tampa Bay had recorded 4+ runs in just eight of 20 games from 7/1-27, scoring an MLB-low 3.30 runs per contest… Tampa Bay’s 60-19 (.590) record when scoring 4+ runs is fifth best in the majors.

SCRIPT FLIPPED — The Rays own the third-best home record in the majors at 38-21 (.644), behind the Rangers (.667) and Braves (.649)…it marks the third-best home start in club history, outpaced by only the 2008 (.729/43-16) and 2009 (.678/40-19) squads…however, the Rays have not won back-to-back games at Tropicana Field since a five-game winning streak from 5/28-6/9, going 8-15 (.348) at home since 6/10…this includes a 4-11 (.267) mark over their last 15 games, the worst home record in MLB over that timeframe (since 7/4), behind Arizona (4-10/.286).

The 4-11 run is the Rays worst over a 15-game span at Tropicana Field since 4/13- 5/12, 2021 (also 4-11)…they have been outscored, 62-47 (-15), during the current stretch, batting .206 (21-for-102) with runners in scoring position.

The Rays have not won a home series since 6/9-11 vs. Texas, going 0-4-3 over their last seven sets…it ties the second-most consecutive home series without a series victory in club history, trailing only an 11-series streak from 7/11-9/12, 2002… Tampa Bay began the season 11-1-0 in its first 12 in home series.

DEVIL RAY MAGIC — Tampa Bay is 8-1 (.889) when wearing its throwback Devil Rays uniforms at Friday night home games, including a seven-game winning streak to open the season before a 2-1 loss to Atlanta on 7/7…it marks the best winning pct. in Friday night home contests in the majors, ahead of Arizona (7-2, .778)…the Rays have outscored opponents, 55-27 (+28), in those games and clubbed 18 homers (2.00 HR/G)…Rays pitchers have produced a 2.89 ERA (81.0IP, 26ER) on Devil Rays Days compared to a 4.09 ERA (455.0IP, 185ER) in all other home games.

Following tonight’s contest, the Rays will have three remaining Devil Rays Days (8/25 vs. NYY, 9/8 vs. SEA, 9/22 vs. TOR).

NOT SO WARM WELCOMES — The Guardians are scheduled to start three rookie pitchers in this weekend’s series: RHP Xzavion Curry, RHP Gavin Williams and RHP Tanner Bibee…along with LHP Matthew Liberatore’s outing last night for St. Louis, the Rays will potentially face four consecutive rookie starters for the fifth time in club history (Elias)…it would mark the first such instance since 8/16-20, 2009 (TOR – Marc Rzepczynski; BAL – Jason Berken, Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz).

There have been 20 games in which the Rays faced a rookie starting pitcher this season, with Tampa Bay going 13-7 in those affairs…rookie starters are 4-10 with a 5.36 ERA against the Rays, the third-highest mark in the majors behind the Braves (6.60) and Rangers (5.38).

EL PATRÓN — Wander Franco has recorded multiple hits in four of his last five games, going 12-for-20 (.600) in that span…it marks the most hits by a Ray over any five-game span since Kevin Kiermaier went 13-for-24 (.542) from 5/17-24, 2022…Franco has hit safely in 11 of his last 12 games since 7/28, leading AL qualifiers during that timeframe in OPS (1.321), slugging pct. (.830), homers (T1st, 5) and total bases (T1st, 39) while ranking highly in batting average (2nd, .426), hits (3rd, 20) and on-base pct. (3rd, .491).

This comes after Franco slashed .174/.248/.313 (20-for-115) from 6/17-7/26, the third-lowest batting average in the majors in that span, ahead of only SEA Ty France (.161) and MIN Byron Buxton (.167).

Franco’s 5.3 bWAR are second most in the AL behind LAA Shohei Ohtani (9.0), due in part to an MLB-leading 2.1 defensive bWAR…it marks the second most bWAR in a single season by a Rays shortstop in club history, trailing only Jason Bartlett’s 6.2 in 2009 (min. 75% of games at shortstop).

EN GARDE! — The Rays and Guardians meet for the first time since Cleveland dealt Tampa Bay its first postseason sweep in franchise history in the 2022 AL Wild Card Series (2-0)… the Rays became the second team in postseason history to be eliminated on a walk-off homer in the 15th inning or later following Oscar Gonzalez’s solo shot in the 15th inning of Game 2 (also ATL at HOU in 2005 NLDS)…including the postseason, Tampa Bay and Cleveland have played five consecutive one-run games, with the Rays going 1-4.

The Guardians won the season series, 4-2, in 2022, with each contest being decided by two or fewer runs…the Rays have won three of the last four season series since 2018 (clubs did not meet in 2020) after dropping four straight from 2014-17.

The Rays are 18-7 (.720) over their last 25 matchups with the Guardians dating back to 9/1/18, including 9-3 at home…it marks their best record against any AL opponent during that timeframe, ahead of Los Angeles-AL (.714/15-6).

Tampa Bay’s .429 (76-101) all-time winning pct. against Cleveland is its second-lowest against any AL opponent, ahead of only Oakland (.427/88-118).

TONIGHT’S STARTER: RHP AARON CIVALE (5-3, 2.55)
TONIGHT’S START — The right-hander makes his second start since being acquired from Cleveland at the trade deadline in exchange for INF Kyle Manzardo on 7/30…marks his 15th start of the season, including his first career start at Tropicana Field…went 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA (39.0IP, 13ER) in six home starts this year for the Guardians.

LAST TIME OUT — Took the loss on 8/5 at Detroit after working 4.1 innings, allowing three runs a season-high-tying nine hits (also 4/7 vs. SEA) with no walks and four strikeouts.

Prior to the loss, Civale had permitted two or fewer runs in six consecutive starts, the longest such streak of his career (prev. 5GS – 7/8-8/23, 2022).

Suffered his first loss against the Tigers after entering the start with a 7-0 record while posting a 2.06 ERA (65.2IP, 15ER) across 10 starts.

It was the most hits he had surrendered in 39 starts against the AL Central, surpassing a previous high of eight (3x, last: 4/27/21 vs. MIN).

OLD FRIENDS — Civale takes the mound against his former club for the first time…he debuted with Cleveland in 2019 and went on to make 76 starts, going 29-23 with a 3.77 ERA (430.0IP, 180ER).

CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE — Civale has allowed just four runs in 30.1 innings spanning five starts against AL Central opponents this season, going 3-1 with a 1.19 ERA…he has logged a 0.96 WHIP and held AL Central hitters to a .209/.250/.264 (23-for-110) line.

He has a 1.19 ERA (30.1IP, 4ER) in five starts against AL Central clubs this season compared to 3.35 (77.0IP, 20ER) against all other opponents…in his career, he has a 3.25 ERA vs. the AL Central and a 4.25 ERA against all other MLB clubs.

SUMMER HEAT WAVE — Civale was one of the AL’s top pitchers in July, going 3-0 with a 1.45 ERA (27.IP, 6ER) in six starts…he ranked among MLB leaders during the month (min. 30.0IP) in ERA (2nd), opp. OPS (2nd, .458), opp. batting average (3rd, .176) and WHIP (3rd, 0.80)…it marked his lowest ERA in any month of his career (min. 2GS), ahead of August 2019 (2.35)… allowed two or fewer runs in each start and yielded only one home run (7/14 at TEX – Nathaniel Lowe).

ABOVE THE CURVE — Civale’s six-pitch repertoire is highlighted by his curveball, a pitch he throws 25.3 pct. of the time…he has registered a 27.0 pct. whiff rate on the offering, down from 45.1 pct. in 2022…however, his 25 strikeouts with the curveball are his most on any pitch.

His 45.1 pct. whiff rate on the pitch last season was sixth highest on any MLB pitcher’s curveball (min. 100 pitches swung at)…his .124 (13- for-105) opponent average on the curve ranked second in the majors (min. 100AB) behind rotation-mate CLE Triston McKenzie (.120).

Civale ranks in the 96th percentile in the majors in curveball spin rate, registering an average of 2,970 rpm on the pitch…among AL pitchers, only HOU Ryan Pressly (3,212 rpm) and HOU Phil Maton (3,143 rpm) have produced higher marks on their curveballs.

HELPING HAND — For his career, Civale is 27-1 with a 3.01 ERA (260.1IP, 87ER) in games when he receives three or more runs of support…he has a 2-23 record with a 4.97 ERA (174.0IP, 96ER) in games receiving two or fewer runs of support.

ODDS AND ENDS — When Civale’s pitch count sits between 1-30, he has held opponents to a .168 (15-for-89) average, allowing three doubles and one home run…from pitches 31-60, opponents are batting .262 (28-for-107) with four doubles and two home runs…opponents in the eight and nine holes have combined to hit .351 (20-for-57) compared to .167 (34-for-203) from the two through six holes…has posted a .179 (20-for-34) opp. average the first time through the lineup, compared to .286 (34-for-119) the second time through.

SEASON RECAP — Civale went 1-1 with a 2.84 ERA (12.2IP, 4ER) over his first two starts from 4/1-7, but suffered a left oblique injury on 4/7 at Seattle that landed him on the 15-day injured list from 4/10-6/2…made three rehab appearances with Triple-A Columbus from 5/18-28, pitching to a 4.91 ERA (11.0IP, 6ER)…was activated from the injured list on 6/2 and tossed 5.0 scoreless innings at Minnesota the same day…went 1-1 with a 4.09 ERA (22.0IP, 10ER) and a 1.41 WHIP over his next four starts from 6/8-25, but has since recorded a 1.94 ERA across his last seven starts since the beginning of July, fourth best in the majors in that span behind PHI Michael Lorenzen (1.11), SD Blake Snell (1.22) and MIL Corbin Burnes (1.89).

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