Monday, December 23, 2024
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MLB Preview: Chicago Cubs (14-12) at Miami Marlins (15-13)

CHICAGO CUBS NOTES:

The Cubs and Marlins play six games spanning two series this season … following this three-game set in Miami, the clubs meet at Wrigley Field for three games next weekend, May 5-7 … dating to 2016, the Cubs have won four of the last five regular season series against Miami.

CUBS AIM TO REBOUND: The Chicago Cubs today wrap up a three-game set against the Miami Marlins, having dropped the first two games by scores of 3-2 and 7-6 … Chicago was last swept in a three-game set in Miami Aug. 13-15, 2021 … the Cubs sojourn will continue with four games against the Nationals in Washington D.C., starting tomorrow.

Chicago’s plus-44 run differential is second the N.L. and fourth-best in the majors, trailing only Tampa Bay (+106), Texas (+59) and Pittsburgh (+53).

The Cubs have played just 10 road games this season, the fewest in the majors … today is the third game (0-2) of a stretch that sees the team on the road for 16 of 22 contests through May 21.

Chicago on Friday held leads of 1-0 in the third inning and 2-1 in the seventh only to drop the game in walk-off fashion, 3-2 … the team’s eight losses after holding a lead are tied for second-most in the N.L. this season (Dodgers, 9).

STEELE ON THE BUMP: Today’s Cubs starter Justin Steele has allowed two or fewer earned runs in each of his last 12 starts dating to July 22 of last season, having posted a 1.07 ERA (8 ER/67.0 IP) with a 5-1 record in those outings … Steele has walked 23 and struck out 76 in this span.

Steele’s 1.07 ERA since July 22 of last season is the best mark in baseball (min. 12 GS) … Steele’s run of 12-straight starts with two or fewer earned runs allowed is the longest by a Cubs since Jake Arrieta did so in 14 consecutive outings from July 30, 2015-April 4, 2016.

NOBODY BEATS THE WIZ: Patrick Wisdom yesterday belted his 10th homer of the season in the team’s 26th game … he’s just the sixth Cub to reach the 10-homer mark in 26 or fewer team games, joining: Gabby Hartnett in 1925, Hank Sauer in 1954, Billy Williams in 1970, Sammy Sosa in 2002 and Alfonso Soriano in 2011.

Since the start of the 2021 season, Wisdom has averaged one home run every 14.21 at-bats, the second-best rate among N.L. hitters with at least 900 plate appearances (Kyle Schwarber, 12.26).

Wisdom’s 63 homers since the start of the 2021 season are eighth-most among N.L. hitters.

DANSBY’S BEEN DANDY: With two more walks yesterday, Dansby Swanson has drawn 21 free passes this season, tied for second-most in the N.L., while his 18.4% walk rate is fourth in the N.L. … entering this season, his career walk rate stood at 8.6%.

Swanson reached base safely three times Friday, the 11th game this season he’s reached base at least three times … those are the most in the majors … overall, his .412 season OBP ranks eighth in the N.L.

24 AND COUNTING: Nico Hoerner has reached base safely in his last 24 games dating to April 2 … that’s the third-longest active streak in the majors behind San Diego’s Xander Bogaerts (30) and Houston’s Yordan Alvarez (25) … Hoerner’s 24-straight games reaching safely is the longest by a Cub since Kris Bryant reached in 26-straight games April 17-May 17, 2019.

Since April 4, Hoerner’s .354 average (34-for-97) ranks third in the majors … his 34 hits are the most in the majors during that span.

His 38 hits are tied for the N.L. lead, his 10 steals are tied for third, his .333 average ranks fifth and his 21 runs scored are tied for fifth.

A TORRID START: Nelson Velazquez homered both Thursday vs. San Diego and Friday at Miami … he hit safely in each of his first five games with an at-bat with the Cubs before going 0-for-1 as a pinch-hitter yesterday … that includes three home runs and six RBI in 21 plate appearances.

In 21 games between Triple-A Iowa and the Cubs this season, Velazquez has hit safely in 17 of those and combined to bat .342 (25-for-73) with six doubles, seven homers, 15 RBI, 18 runs scored, a .422 OBP and a .712 slugging mark.

GOMES’ BAT GETS GOING: Yan Gomes has reached based safely in each of his last 11 games with hits in 10 of them, including five multi-hit efforts … he is 18-for-43 (.419) with four home runs, 10 RBI, nine runs scored, a .721 slugging percentage and a 1.153 OPS since April 11.

Tuesday he went 4-for-4 and hit his second home run in as many games … he previously homered in back-to-back games June 15-16, 2021 … he tallied four hits in a game for the fifth time in his career (first since Sept. 7, 2022 vs. CIN) and did so without recording an out for the second time (also Sept. 7, 2022).

ARM CARE: Cubs pitching has posted a 3.65 ERA (94 ER/231.2 IP) this season, the fourth-best mark in the N.L. … the starting rotation has a 3.43 ERA (52 ER/136.1 IP), the second-best mark in the N.L. and fifth in baseball.

Cubs relievers have posted a 4.50 ERA (17 ER/34.0 IP) in the team’s last nine games after opening the year with a 3.67 ERA (25 ER/61.1 IP) through the first 17 contests … the ‘pen has averaged 11.14 strikeouts per 9.0 innings, the second-best mark in the majors (Cardinals are first with an 11.52 rate).

TWO STRIKES? SO WHAT?: The Cubs lead the majors with a .217 average (109-for503) and 60 RBI when batting with two strikes in the count … the team’s .354 slugging mark and .294 OBP are both second … Chicago’s 15 home runs with two strikes are tied for fourth-most in the majors.

Patrick Wisdom’s six home runs and 10 extra-base hits with two strikes on him lead the majors, while his 11 RBI are tied for second behind Atlanta’s Ozzie Albies (12) .

Starting Pitcher – #35 LHP Justin Steele (4-0, 1.19)
Last Time Out
Justin earned his career-high fourth-straight win in his last outing April 25 vs. San Diego … has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 12-straight starts dating to July 22, 2022 … has allowed four or fewer hits in all five starts in 2023 … did not complete at least 6.0 innings for the first time this season.

Date Opp. Result IP H R ER BB SO PC-S Left
4/25 SD W, 6-0 5.1 3 0 0 2 5 98-59 2-0
2023 Splits and Season Notes
W-L ERA G GS IP H R ER BB SO
Home 2-0 0.52 3 3 17.1 10 1 1 7 16
Road 2-0 2.08 2 2 13.0 7 4 3 3 13
AVG vs. LHB: .222 (6-for-27) / AVG vs. RHB: .143 (11-for-77)

Justin is making his sixth start of the 2023 season today, third on the road … has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 12-straight starts since July 22, 2022, the second-longest active streak in the majors behind Max Fried (14) … has posted a 1.07 ERA (8 ER/67.0 IP) since July 22, 2022, the lowest ERA in the majors during the run (min. 12 GS) … his 1.19 ERA in 2023 is the lowest in the N.L. and third-lowest in the majors (min. 5 GS), while his .163 opponent average (17-for-104) is the third-lowest in the majors … opposing batters are hitting .077 (3-or-39) off his slider.

Went 1-1 with a 2.63 ERA (4 ER/13.2 IP) with 13 strikeouts in four Cactus League starts in 2023 … started and tossed the first 2.0 innings of the Cubs combined no-hitter, March 3 at San Diego.

MIAMI MARLINS NOTES:

MARLINS MINUTE
The Marlins today play the final game of a three-game series against the Cubs. Continues a six-game homestand which also includes a three-game set vs. the Braves from Tuesday-Thursday. Are coming off a seven-game road trip, taking two of three in Cleveland (including a doubleheader sweep last Saturday) and dropping three of four in Atlanta.

• After starting the year 1-4, the Marlins have gone 14-8 since.

• Lost three of four to the Mets in their first home series of the season, but have won eight of 11 home games since.

• Have won their last four home series (MIN, ARI, SF, CHC), the most consecutive home series victories since winning four straight from August – September 2021 (WSH, CIN, PHI, NYM).

YESTERDAY’S RECAP
Miami secured the series win yesterday with another one-run victory over the Cubs, 7-6. The Marlins offense exploded for 5 runs in the first inning, capped off by LF Jesus Sanchez’s ground-rule double with the bases loaded to score 2 runs. Sanchez (2×4, 3 RBI, 1 R) was one of four Marlins to put up multi-hit efforts, alongside 2B Luis Arraez (3×4, 2 R), CF Jazz Chisholm Jr. (3×4, 1 2B, 1 R), and 1B Yuli Gurriel (2×4, 1 R). RHP Edward Cabrera earned his second win of the season and struck out a career-high 12 batters through 5.0 frames, the most this season by a Marlins starter. Allowed 2 runs on 3 hits.

EASY E
RHP Edward Cabrera recorded a career-high 12 strikeouts against the Cubs in yesterday’s game, surpassing his previous high of 9 strikeouts on June 1, 2022 at Colorado (G1 of DH). Set a season-high for a Marlins starter, joining LHP Jesus Luzardo as the only two starters to record double-digit strikeouts in a game.

COMIN’ IN HOT
Miami’s five-run first inning marks the first time the Marlins scored 5 or more runs in the 1st inning since August 28, 2021 vs. Cincinnati (also, 5 runs). Is the third time this season they scored 5 runs in one inning and second time in last 3 gms (also, Apr. 27 at Atlanta and Apr. 14 vs. Arizona).

WINNING START
The Marlins’ 14 wins in the month of April are the most since the team moved to Miami and secures Miami their second consecutive winning record in April. Prior to last year’s April, the Marlins had not had a winning record in April since 2016. Marks the first time the Marlins recorded more than 13 wins in April since 2011, when the club went 16-9. The Marlins have won 14-plus games in the month of April seven times (14 – 2003, 2005, 2009; 15 – 1997, 2004, 2008; and 16 – 2011).

ONE-RUN WONDERS
The Marlins are 9-0 in one-run games in 2023, marking the most consecutive wins in games decided by one run to start a season in franchise history. Are the only team yet to lose a one-run game this season.

• Miami played 64 games decided by one run in 2022, the most such games in the Majors last season. Miami’s 40 one-run losses were the most in a season in club history, the most since the 1975 Astros (41), and just three shy of the single-season record for one-run losses during the Live Ball Era (since 1920) held by the 1968 White Sox (44).

• Marks the most consecutive wins in games decided by one-run to start a season since the 2017 Colorado Rockies also went 9-0. The last team to start a season with a better stretch in such games was the 2004 Los Angeles Dodgers (10-0). The 1972 New York Mets own the all-time record, starting their season 11-0 in one-run contests. See chart to right for all-time records. (courtesy of Elias Sports Bureau)

MR. STEAL YOUR BASE
CF Jazz Chisholm Jr. has stolen 11 bases this season (in 12 attempts), tied for the most steals in the month of April in club history (also, Luis Castillo, 1997). His team-leading 11 steals rank second in MLB behind only Ronald Acuña Jr.’s 13 stolen bases.

• In 63 gms in the month of April in his career, is batting .288 with a .889 OPS, while posting a .228 avg. and .701 OPS in every other month combined (169 gms).

• With 3 hits in last night’s game, marked just fifth career game with 3-plus hits, with the previous occurrence coming on May 16, 2022. Had 4 hits once, Apr. 23, 2022.

• His 2 stolen bases in the sixth inning Friday night mark the third time this season he’s recorded multiple steals in a game, tied for the most such occurrences in MLB with Baltimore’s Jorge Mateo, Arizona’s Corbin Carroll, and Pittsburgh’s Ji Hwan Bae.

CATCH US IF YOU CAN
The Marlins have stolen 26 bases this season, the fifth most in the Majors (second in NL). Have been caught just three times, the second-best SB pct. in the Majors (89.6%) behind only Boston (91.7%). Since the start of the 2020 season, the Marlins have combined to steal 164 bases on the road – the most for any Major League team over the stretch.

GOOD FIRST IMPRESSIONS
2B Luis Arraez has 38 hits in his first 24 games of the year (22 starts), with 12 multi-hit games (second-most in MLB). Leads MLB in hits, part of a four-way tie with Ronald Acuña Jr. (38), Bryson Stott (38), and Nico Hoerner (38). Arraez’s .442 batting avg. (38×86) is tops in the Majors among all qualified hitters, and is 70 points higher than the secondbest (Chapman, .372).

• Trails only Dee Strange-Gordon (44, 2015) for the most hits by a Marlins player through their first 24 gms of a season in club history. His batting avg. is tops in club history through 23 gms.

• Only one Marlins player has owned a .400 avg at the end of April – Dee Strange-Gordon in 2015 (.409).

• His .442 batting avg. is the highest through 24 gms to a season since Jose Iglesias’ .447 mark to start the 2013 season, joining Mike Trout in 2021 and Cody Bellinger in 2019 as the only four players since 2017 to hit .400 or better through 23 games to start the year.

• Has struck out 5 times in 93 PA (.061 K/AB), lowest mark in the Majors among qualified batters.

GREAT WHEN LATE
The Marlins offense is batting .281 (86×306) in the seventh inning or later, the second-best mark in the Majors this season behind only Houston (.288). 40 of Miami’s 95 runs scored this year (42%) have come in these final three innings, including 9 of the club’s combined 26 home runs.

ATS Wins

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