Friday, November 22, 2024
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MLB Preview: Boston Red Sox (72-66) at Tampa Bay Rays (83-55)

BOSTON RED SOX NOTES:

STATE OF THE SOX: The Red Sox have won 3 consecutive games following a season-high-tying 5-game losing streak. The Sox are 14-11 in their last 25 games, since 8/9.
At 72-66 (.522), Boston is tied with the Twins, who lead the AL Central, for MLB’s 12th-best record.

SERIES BUSINESS: With a win today or tomorrow, the Red Sox would improve to 24-18-3 in series play overall, including 11-9-3 in road series. The Red Sox have already surpassed their series win total from 2022 (22-24-6)…They’ve matched their total number of road series wins from last season (10-14-2). The Sox are 2-0-1 in their last 3 road series, after losing each of their previous 4 from 7/17-19.

EASTERN STANDARD: Yesterday the Red Sox began a stretch of 13 consecutive games against AL East teams, facing each divisional opponent over the stretch (3 at TB, 3 vs. BAL, 4 vs. NYY, 3 at TOR). 18 of the Sox’ 24 remaining games will be against AL East opponents (BAL-7, NYY-4, TB-4, TOR-3). The Red Sox are 20-14 against AL East teams this season (6-4-0 in series), after going 26-50 in 2022 (6-17-1 in series).

EASTERN ROAD WARRIORS: The Red Sox have won each of their last 8 divisional road games, beginning 6/11 (4-0 at NYY, 3-0 at TOR, 1-0 at TB). It is their longest streak since 9/11-9/25/16 (also 8 games). The last time the Sox won 9 consecutive road divisional games was 5/13-6/12/11.

SOX & RAYS: Yesterday the Red Sox snapped a 13-game losing streak at Tropicana Field (beginning 4/23/22), their longest losing streak ever at the venue. Yesterday was the team’s 1st meeting since 6/3-5, when TB won a 4-game series at Fenway Park (3-1)… BOS is 2-7 vs. TB this season. The Sox are 27-49 vs. TB since the start of 2019, their most losses to any opponent in that span.

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE: The Red Sox’ next 2 series will be against the teams with the best records in the AL (TB, BAL). 17 of the Sox’ remaining 24 games will be against teams that currently have a winning record (BAL-7, TB-4, TEX-3, TOR-3). BOS is 37-39 against teams with a current record of .500 or better, and 35-27 against teams below .500.

NO TIME TO REST: Boston will finish the regular season with a stretch of 28 games in 31 days from 9/1-10/1…They have scheduled off days on 9/7, 9/21, and 9/25. Following their off-day on Thursday, the Sox will play 13 games on consecutive days from 9/8-20 (3 vs. BAL, 4 vs. NYY, 3 at TOR, 3 at TEX).

PICK YOUR POISON: Three Red Sox players rank in the AL’s top 10 in OPS, more than any other team…They also have 3 representatives in the AL’s top 15 in AVG and OBP. Boston has 3 qualified players with at least a .350 OBP and .800 OPS (Casas, Turner, Yoshida)…The only other team with 3 such players is LAD (Betts, Freeman, Smith).

ON THE OFFENSIVE: The Red Sox lead MLB in doubles (301)…Among AL teams, they rank 2nd in AVG (.264) and XBH (482), 3rd in SLG (.438) and OPS (.768), and 5th in OBP (.330).

SLUGGING SOX: The Red Sox have homered in 22 of their last 23 games (37 total HR), and 30 of their last 32 games since 8/1. The Sox have hit multiple HR in 6 of their last 11 games. Boston has hit 31 HR in their last 18 games since 8/17, T-4th-most in MLB in that span (PHI-42, NYY-34, SEA-34, MIN-31).

RISPY BUSINESS: With RISP, Boston ranks 2nd in MLB in hits (340), 3rd in AVG (.280) and 4th in OBP (.355). With RISP and 0 or 1 out, they own an AL-best .302 AVG. The Sox are 10-for-30 (.300 AVG) with RISP in their last 3 games, after going 5-for-28 (.179 AVG) in their previous 5.

SCORING IN BUNCHES: The Red Sox have scored multiple runs in an inning at least once in 20 of their last 21 games (34 multi-run innings over that span). Since 6/1, they are 32-4 in games when they score 3+ runs in at least 1 inning.

HIGH FIVE: The Red Sox are 59-9 (.868) when scoring 5+ runs, the 2nd-best record in MLB behind SEA (58-8, .879). They’ve scored more than 5 runs in each of their last 3 games, after doing so in just 2 of their previous 7. Since 6/14, the Sox are 32-3 when scoring 5+ runs.

LOCK IT DOWN: Boston owns MLB’s best record when leading after 6 innings (56-3, .950)…In 2022, they ranked 18th in MLB when leading after 6 (63-10, .863). The Sox lead MLB in save % (76.9; 40-for-52), after ranking 24th last season (57.4; 39-for-68). 10 Red Sox pitchers have earned at least 1 save, tied with LAD for most in MLB.

CLOSING ACT: Kenley Jansen has converted each of his last 20 save opportunities since 5/20, MLB’s 2nd-longest active streak behind TOR’s Jordan Romano (22). Since 6/9, Chris Martin has allowed only 1 run over his last 30 outings (27.2 IP)…He leads MLB with a 0.33 ERA in that span (min. 20.0 IP).

TONIGHT’S STARTER: 50 KUTTER CRAWFORD – RHP
W-L ERA G GS IP ER HR BB SO WHIP AVG
2023 6-7 4.08 26 18 103.2 47 15 26 102 1.14 .235
CAREER 9-14 4.87 48 31 183.0 99 28 57 181 1.28 .254

Allowed 6 runs in 2.2 IP in his last start (8/30 vs. HOU)…In his previous 12 starts (6/20- 8/25), posted a 3.28 ERA and .218 opponent AVG (60.1 IP, 22 ER). On the road, is 6-3 with a 2.06 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and .194 opponent AVG…At home, is 0-4 with a 6.51 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, and .277 opponent AVG. In 5 career games vs. TB (2 starts), is 1-0 with a 2.21 ERA, .173 opponent AVG, 24 SO, and only 1 BB (20.1 IP, 5 R, 13-for-75, 1 HR). Ranks in MLB’s 75th percentile or higher in chase rate (86th), walk rate (84th), fastball spin (91st), and expected opponent average (79th). Opponents are hitting .183 AVG (24-for-131, 11 XBH) with 51 SO against his 4-seam fastball.

TAMPA BAY RAYS NOTES:

RAY REPORT — Tampa Bay continues a seven-game, seven-day homestand featuring matchups with Boston and Seattle tonight at Tropicana Field…the Rays are 21-12 in their last 33 games, including wins in nine of 13, 11 of 16 and 14 of their last 21, following an MLB-worst 5-15 (.250) stretch from 7/1-26…they currently occupy the first AL Wild Card spot, leading Houston by 5.5 games and Texas by 6.5 games…with 24 games remaining, Tampa Bay is a season-high 3.5 games behind first-place Baltimore in the AL East after spending 111 consecutive days atop the division from 3/30-7/19. The Rays saw their 13-game home winning streak over the Red Sox come to an end…it was the longest home winning streak by any team vs. the Red Sox since the Minnesota Twins won 17 straight vs. Boston from 1964-1966. Tampa Bay pitchers recorded 16 strikeouts yesterday, one shy of their season-high total of 17 punchouts (6/15 at OAK & 6/25 vs. KC)…it marked the second time in club history the Rays recorded 16+ strikeouts in a nine-inning game against the Red Sox (17SO on 9/27/07). The Rays have won nine of their last 11 series on the heels of a 2-7-2 performance in series play from 6/12-7/26…their 21-12 (.636) record during that span (since 7/28) is third best in the AL behind the Mariners (25-10, .714) and Orioles (24-11, .686). Tampa Bay continues the month of September with 17 games in 17 consecutive days before its first of three off days during the month (9/18, 9/25, 9/28)…the Rays remaining opponents have a combined winning pct. of .546, the fourth-highest mark in the majors behind the Cardinals (.556), Nationals (.555) and Red Sox (.552).

TROP TALK — In 15 home starts this season, Zach Eflin is 10-4 with a 3.05 ERA (88.2IP, 30ER)…with a win tonight, Eflin would surpass Blake Snell (2018) for the most home wins in a season in franchise history. Ê Eflin’s 10 home wins pace the AL and are third most in the majors behind CHC Justin Steele (12 wins) and AZ Zac Gallen (11 wins). Min. 50.0 innings, Eflin ranks among AL pitchers at home in BB/9.0IP (2nd, 1.02), walk rate (2nd, 2.9%), SO/BB (2nd, 9.70) and WHIP (5th, 0.97). Eflin is one of two pitchers in the majors this season to throw 150.0+ innings while allowing 20 walks or fewer, joining SEA George Kirby (159.1IP, 14BB).

DAWGS GOTTA EAT—Brandon Lowe has reached base safely in a career-high-tying 14 consecutive games (also 4/1-17, 2019) dating back to 8/15. His 14-game on-base streak is tied with BOS Triston Casas and CWS Yoán Moncada for the third-longest active run in the AL, trailing TOR Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (20G) and SEA Teoscar Hernández (19G). In five home games vs. Boston this season, he is batting .400 (6-for-15) with one double, 3 HR and 6 RBI…in 32 career home games against the Red Sox, he has homered 10 times and driven in 22 runs.

EAST FEATS — Yandy Díaz has reached base safely in 27 straight games against AL East opponents dating back to 4/16 at Toronto…he is slashing .298/.402/.510 (31-for-104) with seven doubles, 5 HR, 19 RBI and 14 walks…in 66 career games against the Red Sox, he is batting .340 (81-for-238) with 18 doubles, two triples, 8 HR and 34 RBI…his .340 AVG against Boston is the highest among all active players in the majors (min. 175AB), ahead of TOR Bo Bichette and TOR George Springer (both .328). Isaac Paredes has reached base safely in each of his last 21 games against AL East foes since 5/12 at New York-AL…he is slashing .318/.464/.530 (21-for-66) with two doubles, 4 HR, 9 RBI, 6 HBP and 12 walks against 12 strikeouts during that run. In seven games against Boston this season, Harold Ramírez is batting .400 (10-for25) with five doubles and 8 RBI.

THE LOWE DOWN—Josh Lowe is batting .340 (33-for-97) with six doubles, one triple, 5 HR, 19 RBI and six steals in 28 games since 7/30. He is two home runs and two stolen bases shy of reaching the 20HR/30SB mark for the season…he would become the third Ray (fourth instance) to record 20+ HR and 30+ SB in a season, joining Randy Arozarena (2022) and B.J. Upton (2011, 2012). Lowe is batting .467 (21-for-45) with 32 RBI with RISP/2 outs, the second highest mark in the majors (min. 40AB), behind TEX Jonah Heim (.477)…under the same parameters, his .467 RISP/2 out AVG would set a single-season franchise record, outpacing Carl Crawford (.413 in 2006).

HOMER HAPPY — Tampa Bay’s 198 home runs are tied with Minnesota for fourth most in the majors, trailing Atlanta (259HR), Los Angeles-NL (213) and Los Angeles-AL (200HR)…the Rays 198 HR are their most through 138 games in club history, outpacing the 2017 club (195HR). Tampa Bay is one home run shy of tying the 2009 Rays for the fifth-most homers in a single season in franchise history…with 24 games remaining on their schedule, the 2023 Rays will need 30 HR to tie the 2017 club (228HR) for the single-season record. The Rays have hit 93 HR at home this year, currently eighth most in a season in team history…with 12 home games remaining, the 2023 club needs 13 HR to match the 2017 Rays (106HR) for the most long balls at home in a single season. Tampa Bay currently has eight players who have hit 17+ home runs this season, tied with Atlanta for the MLB lead…the previous franchise record was held by the 2019 Rays, who had six players with 17+ HR (Willy Adames, Ji Man Choi, Avisaíl García, Brandon Lowe, Austin Meadows, Tommy Pham).

RUNNING WILD — Over its last 11 games since 8/23, Tampa Bay has stolen 17 bases and been caught only three times (85.0 SB%)…the 17 SB lead the majors during that stretch, ahead of Cincinnati (16SB) and Cleveland (15SB). The Rays have stolen multiple bases in consecutive games for the sixth time this season (last: 3G from 8/10-12)…Tampa Bay has an AL-best 37 multi-steal games, ahead of Kansas City and Oakland (32G), while trailing Cincinnati (38G) for the MLB lead.

SHIPPING DOWN TO TAMPA BAY — The Rays and Red Sox continue a three-game set tonight at Tropicana Field…Tampa Bay swept Boston in a four-game series at home from 4/10-13 and took three of four games at Fenway Park from 6/3-5…the Rays are 32-19 (.627) against the Red Sox at Tropicana Field since 2018. Chaim Bloom, Boston’s Chief Baseball Officer, spent 15 years with the Rays from 2005-2019 prior to joining the Red Sox in October of 2019. Rays Director of Amateur Scouting Chuck Ricci pitched for Boston in the minors in 1996…Justin Su’a, Tampa Bay’s Head of Mental Performance, spent four seasons as Boston’s mental skills coordinator. Rays Radio play-by-play announcer Andy Freed spent nine seasons calling games in Boston’s minor league system…he was the voice of Triple-A Pawtucket for four seasons and the voice of Double-A Trenton for five seasons

TONIGHT’S STARTER: RHP ZACH EFLIN (13-8, 3.40)
TONIGHT’S START — The right-hander makes his 27th start of the season, including his 16th at home…leads the majors in WHIP (1.02) while ranking second in walk rate (3.4%) behind SEA George Kirby (2.2%)…has gone 1-1 with a 1.47 ERA (18.1IP, 3ER) in his last three starts after posting a 2-3 mark with a 5.10 ERA (30.0IP, 17ER) in his first six starts following the All-Star break…his 2.62 ERA (34.1IP, 10ER) in August was his second lowest in a single month in his career (min. 4GS), trailing June 2018 (1.76).

LAST TIME OUT — Needed only 69 pitches to get through 6.1 scoreless frames in the Rays 3-0 shutout win in Miami on 8/30 (6.1IP, 4H, 0R, 4SO)… did not factor into the decision as the game remained tied at 0-0 before the Rays three-run rally in the 10th frame…marked his fifth scoreless outing of 6.0+ innings (T5th in AL)…the 69 pitches tied the third fewest in club history in an outing of 6.0+ innings (fewest: Corey Kluber, 5/4/22 at OAK, 64).

SOX TALK — Eflin has made a pair of starts opposite Boston in his career, both of which came in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season during his stint with the Phillies when the AL East and NL East divisions met as part of the regional scheduling format (8/18/20 & 9/8/20)…Philadelphia won both of those starts, but Eflin pitched to a 7.00 ERA (9.0IP, 7ER) while allowing Red Sox hitters to bat .333 (13-for-39) with a 1.036 OPS. He has gone 4-2 with a 2.61 ERA (38.0IP, 11ER) in six starts against the AL East this season, including 3-1 with a 1.04 ERA (26.0IP, 3ER) over his last four such starts dating back to 5/25 at Toronto.

HOME SWEET DOME — Eflin has gone 10-4 with a 3.05 ERA (88.2IP, 30ER) in 15 starts at Tropicana Field this season…it marks the fourth-lowest ERA through a pitcher’s first 15 home starts with the Rays, trailing Matt Garza (2.89, 2008), Charlie Morton (2.74, 2019) and Jeremy Hellickson (2.37, 2010-2011)…his 10 home victories are tied with Blake Snell (2018) for the most in a single season in Rays history…he is 2-4 in his last seven home starts after earning the win in each of his first eight. The Rays are 2-3 in Eflin’s home starts since the All-Star break, providing him with just 2.33 runs of support per 9.0 IP, the sixth-lowest mark in the AL during that timeframe (min. 5GS at home)… his 8.61 RSA in home starts during the first half of the season was second-highest in the majors (min. 5GS at home) behind BOS Tanner Houck (9.75)…he has received one run of support in each of his last four home starts dating back to 7/26 vs. Miami.

DIVING DEEPER — Eflin has held opponents to an average exit velocity of 87.1 mph, the fourth-lowest mark in the AL behind a trio of Angels: Shohei Ohtani (86.4), Tyler Anderson (86.9) and Patrick Sandoval (87.3)… opponents have swung at 33.8 pct. of Eflin’s pitches outside of the strike zone, the fourth-highest chase rate in the AL, but ony 0.1 pct. behind AL leader MIN Bailey Ober (33.9%). Ê Opponents are batting .130 (3-for-23) against him with RISP over his last six starts since 8/1…opposing hitters batted .305 (18-for-59) vs. Eflin in scoring situations in his previous 14 starts (5/9-7/26).

QUALITY CONTROL — Eflin’s 7.55 SO/BB ratio ranks second in the majors behind SEA George Kirby (10.36)…in Rays history, the only qualified pitcher with a higher mark over a full season was David Price in 2012 (8.22)…Eflin has issued one or zero walks in each of his last 12 starts, the longest such streak of his career and the longest active run among traditional major league starters, ahead of SF Logan Webb (11GS). He has walked two or fewer batters in each of his last 28 starts since 6/14/22, also the longest active streak in MLB, ahead of three pitchers tied at 26 starts…Eflin has issued two or fewer walks in 62 of his last 63 starts dating back to 8/29/2020. Since the beginning of 2021, his 3.8 pct. walk rate is the lowest in the majors (min. 1,250BF), outpacing KC Zack Greinke (4.5%). Eflin has thrown 68.86 pct. of his pitches for strikes, the third-highest mark in the majors behind Kirby (70.77%) and MIA Sandy Alcantara (68.87%)…marks the highest strike percentage of his career, ahead of his 2021 season (67.99%). His 1.02 WHIP leads the majors…he is looking to become the first qualified pitcher in Rays history to lead the AL (or all of MLB) in WHIP over a full season…the only Tampa Bay hurlers to post lower qualified WHIPs in a season are Blake Snell (0.97 in 2018) and Shane McClanahan (0.93 in 2022).

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