Thursday, October 17, 2024
Fantasy Guru - Baseball

MLB Preview: Boston Red Sox (32-33) at New York Yankees (38-28)

BOSTON RED SOX NOTES:

STATE OF THE SOX: At 32-33 (.492), the Red Sox entered today with a share of MLB’s 16th-best record (T-9th in AL). Since improving to 21-14 after an 8-game winning streak from 4/29-5/6, the Sox are 11-19…They are 6-13 in their last 19 games, including 2-3 in their last 5.

SERIES BUSINESS: The Red Sox have lost each of their last 3 series (1-2 vs. CIN, 1-3 vs. TB, 1-2 at CLE)…Prior to this streak, they had not lost consecutive series all season. The Sox are 11-8-1 in series, including 1-4-0 in their last 5 (started 10-4-1)…4 of their 8 series losses have been sweeps (0-3 vs. PIT, 0-4 at TB, 0-3 vs. STL, 0-3 at LAA).

NO TIME TO REST: The Red Sox are in a stretch of playing 13 games in 12 days from 6/3-14 (doubleheader on 6/3)… They are scheduled to play 23 games in 23 days from 6/3-25. The Sox are in a stretch of playing 15 consecutive night games from 6/6-21.

SOX & YANKEES: Since the start of 2022, 11 of 21 games between the Red Sox and Yankees have been decided by 1 run, including 6 of 12 at Yankee Stadium. Each of the last 11 games between the Sox and Yankees has been decided by 3 runs or fewer…10 of those were decided by 1 or 2 runs, including each of the last 8.

CLOSE SHAVES: 11 of the Red Sox’ last 14 games have been decided by 3 runs or fewer, including 8 by 1 or 2 runs. The Sox are 15-15 (.500) in games decided by 1 or 2 runs, tied with the Giants for MLB’s 16th-best mark.

BRONX BOMBER: Rafael Devers hit his 21st career HR against the Yankees last night, passing Ted Williams (20) for the most by a Red Sox player against NYY prior to turning 27 years old (Mookie Betts ranks 3rd with 14). Devers hit his 11th career HR at Yankee Stadium last night…That passed Babe Ruth (10) for the most HR by a Red Sox player against the Yankees in New York prior to the age of 27 (Ted Williams had 9).

YOUTH MOVEMENT: Each of the Red Sox’ 3 starting pitchers this weekend will be 26 years old or younger on the day of their start: Garrett Whitlock (26), Tanner Houck (26), and Brayan Bello (24)…Whitlock turns 27 years old today. Against the Yankees in their careers, those 3 pitchers have a combined 1.96 ERA (15 ER/69.0 IP). The last 2 instances of the Sox starting a pitcher 26 years old or younger in each game of a series at Yankee Stadium came in September 2014 (Joe Kelly, Anthony Ranaudo, Brandon Workman) and June 1986 (Roger Clemens, Rob Woodward, Oil Can Boyd).

EASTERN STANDARD: The Red Sox are 9-11 against the AL East (7-4 home, 2-7 road). The Sox are 2-3-0 in series against AL East teams… Last year, they lost each of their first 8 series vs. AL East teams and were 0-11-1 in their first 12. The Sox are 0-2-0 in road series against AL East teams… Last year, they were 1-11-0 in such series (started 0-9-0).

GET AHEAD, STAY AHEAD: The Red Sox are 20-6 (.769) when scoring the game’s 1st run, compared to 12-27 (.308) when their opponent scores 1st.
The Sox are 24-2 (.923) when leading after 6 innings.

PITCHING IN: The Red Sox have allowed 4 ER or fewer in 18 of their last 23 games (beginning 5/16)…In that time, they rank 11th in the majors in ERA (3.84, 85 ER/199.0 IP). In their last 5 games, Sox pitchers have recorded 36 SO and only 7 BB…They have issued 2 BB or fewer in each of those games, their longest streak of the season. Sox pitchers have allowed 7 HR in their last 3 games, after giving up 0 HR in their previous 7 games from 6/1-7.

START ME UP: Beginning 5/17, Red Sox starting pitchers rank 9th in the majors with a 3.67 ERA (44 ER/108.0 IP)… They allowed 2 ER or fewer in 16 of those 22 games. The Sox are 13-5 (.722) when their starting pitcher throws 6.0+ innings…They are 26-19 (.578) when their starter throws 5.0+ innings (14-8 on the road).

SLUGGING SOX: The Red Sox rank 3rd in the AL and 6th in MLB in runs scored (320)…They also rank among the AL’s top 5 in doubles (1st, 145), AVG (4th, .259), OBP (4th, .332), SLG (4th, .425), OPS (3rd, .757), and walks (5th, 219). The Sox rank 3rd in the AL and 6th in MLB in SO% (20.9).

UPS AND DOWNS: The Red Sox have been held to 19 runs in their last 8 games (2, 2, 1, 5, 2, 3, 3, 1)…In that time, they have hit .214 with 5 HR and a .649 OPS. In their last 21 games (beginning 5/19), the Sox rank 19th in MLB in AVG (.233) and OBP (.311)…They entered that span ranked 2nd in MLB in AVG (.272) and OBP (.342).

RED SOX OFFENSE BY DATE
Dates Record AVG OPS Runs/G
3/30-5/6 21-14 .273 .800 5.9
5/7-pres. 11-19 .243 .705 3.8

RISPY BUSINESS: In their last 8 games, the Red Sox are 10- for-73 (.137) with runners in scoring position…Overall with RISP, the Sox rank 4th in the majors in AVG (.282), OBP (.360), and strikeout rate (19.5%), as well as 7th in OPS (.804).

SELECTIVE SOX: Red Sox batters have drawn at least 4 walks in 13 of their last 17 games…In June, they lead the AL and rank 2nd in the majors in walk rate (11.2%). The Sox drew 4+ walks in each of their first 8 games this month, their longest streak since 2004 (9 G, 8/28-9/6).

COMEBACK KIDS: Boston has 18 come-from-behind wins this season…Opponents have earned only 8 comeback wins against the Red Sox, including 0 walk-off wins. The Sox have won 5 games in which they trailed after 7 innings (had 4 such wins in all of 2022)…They have lost only 1 game in which they led after 7 innings.

TOUGH TEST: The Red Sox have played 41 games (19-22 record) against teams that entered today with a winning record, tied with TOR for 2nd most in MLB (OAK-44). Following tonight, only 1 of the Sox’ next 4 series is against a team with a winning record (vs. NYY).

TONIGHT’S STARTER: 66 BRAYAN BELLO – RHP
W-L ERA G GS IP ER HR BB SO WHIP AVG
2023 3-4 3.97 9 9 45.1 20 7 15 46 1.43 .275
CAREER 5-12 4.38 22 20 102.2 50 8 42 101 1.63 .298

Suffered the loss on Monday vs. TB (6.0 IP, 4 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 5 SO). Has a 2.84 ERA in his last 7 starts (12 ER/38.0 IP)…Allowed 6 or fewer hits and 3 or fewer ER in each of those outings (2 ER or fewer in 6 of them). Owns a 0.82 ERA (1 ER/11.0 IP) in 2 starts vs. NYY…Tossed a 6.0-inning CG (rain) in his last outing at NYY on 9/25/22 (6 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 4 SO). Has allowed 0 HR in his last 2 starts and in his last 12.0 IP. Has 15 SO and only 3 BB in his last 3 starts (17.0 IP). In his MLB career, opponents are 19-for-101 (.188) with 0 HR (17 singles, 2 doubles) against his changeup (10-for-44 with 19 SO in 2023).

NEW YORK YANKEES NOTES:
TODAY’S GAME: The Giants will try to salvage the series with a win in today’s finale…SF has totaled just two runs over the first two games vs. the Cubs…this series marks SF’s shortest homestand of the season as the Giants returned from Colorado on Thursday, and leave for St. Louis postgame today.

NOT A MORNING PERSON: Two comeback wins in Colorado saved a struggling SF offense as of late…since their 10-run explosion on June 6 vs. the Rockies, the Giants have scored just two runs in the first five innings of the game…their combined OPS in the first five innings over their last four games is .410, which is 29th in MLB…in the first two games of this series, SF has just five hits over the first five innings.

BACK AND FORTH: After sweeping the Rockies in three games at Colorado, the Giants are in danger of being swept at home for the first time in 2023…they’ve been swept in two-game series twice, both on the road, the first time coming at DET(April 14-15 with a rain out on April 16), and in Mexico City vs. SD (April 29-30)…the last time SF was swept in a three-game series was at home to LAD from Sept. 16-18, 2022.

17 AGAIN: Yesterday was the 17th-straight game in which the Giants held CHC to five or fewer runs…that streak is the second-longest vs. CHC in Giants franchise history, trailing the 21-straight from June 1908 to May 1909.

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