Thursday, November 21, 2024
Fantasy Guru - Baseball

MLB Preview: Boston Red Sox (31-32) at New York Yankees (37-27)

BOSTON RED SOX NOTES:

STATE OF THE SOX: The Red Sox have lost 5 of their last 6 games…They are 5-12 in their last 17 games, beginning 5/21. The Sox have lost each of their last 3 series (1-2 vs. CIN, 1-3 vs. TB, 1-2 at CLE)…Prior to this streak, they hadn’t lost back-to-back series all season. At 31-32 (.492), the Sox rank 5th in the AL East and are 5.0 games back from the AL’s 3rd Wild Card spot. BOS is below .500 for the 1st time since 4/28 (13-14).

SOX & YANKEES: Tonight marks the 1st of 13 games between the Red Sox and Yankees this season, and 1st of 6 in a 10-day span from 6/9-18. The Red Sox went 6-13 against the Yankees in 2022, including 2-8 at Yankee Stadium…15 of their 19 matchups were decided by 3 runs or fewer, including 14 by 2 runs or fewer and 10 by 1 run. According to Elias, it was just the 5th time there have as many as 10 one-run games between he Red Sox and Yankees in a season…The clubs also combined for 11 in 1914 and 10 in 1952, 1960, and 2001. The Red Sox and Yankees each earned 2 walk-off wins against each other in 2022…It was the 7th season that the clubs have combined for 4 walk-off wins in their season series, and the 1st time since 1976 (also 4).

EASTERN STANDARD: The Red Sox are 1-6 on the road against AL East teams, compared to 7-4 at home. The Sox are 2-3-0 in series against AL East teams…They have lost both of their intradivisional road series so far (0-4 at TB from 4/10-13; 1-2 at BAL from 4/24-26). In 2022, they didn’t win their 2nd series against an AL East opponent until 8/14 (began 1-11-1). From 6/3-18, 3 of the Sox’ 5 series (10 of 16 games)
are against AL East opponents (1-3 vs. TB, 3 games at NYY, 3 games vs. NYY)…Just 1 of their 9 series from 4/28-6/1 was within the division (5/1-4 vs. TOR).

SERIES BUSINESS: The Red Sox lost their 3-game series at CLE (1-2), falling to 11-8-1 in series play (5-4-1 on the road). The Sox have alternated series results on the road (W, L, W, L, W, T, W, L, W, L): 3-0 at DET, 0-4 at TB, 2-1 at MIL, 1-2 at BAL, 2-1 at PHI, 1-1 at ATL, 2-1 at SD, 0-3 at LAA, 2-1 at ARI, 1-2 at CLE. They are 1-4-0 in their last 5 series, beginning 5/22. The Sox have won Game 1 and gone on to lose each of their last 2 series (vs. TB, at CLE)…Boston entered that stretch 8-0-0 in series after winning Game 1.

GETTING BUSY: After their game scheduled for 6/2 vs. TB was postponed and made up on 6/5, the Red Sox are now in a span of 13 games in 12 days, from 6/3-14 (2-5 so far). The Sox are in a span of 26 games in 27 days, from 5/30-6/25, including 23 games in 23 days from 6/3-25.

TOUGH TEST: The Red Sox have played 36 games against teams with a current winning percentage of .500 or better (16-20 record), tied for 3rd most in MLB (OAK-42, STL-39). 6 of the Sox’ 10 series from 6/2-7/6 are against opponents who are currently above .500 (vs. TB, at NYY, vs. NYY, vs. MIA, at TOR, vs. TEX).

COMEBACK KIDS: Boston has 18 come-from-behind wins this season, tied for 4th most in MLB (BAL-21, LAA-20, CIN-19). They have trailed in each of their last 4 wins.

UPS AND DOWNS: The Red Sox are 9-16 in their last 25 games, since 5/12, after going 17-8 over their previous 25. The Red Sox have been held to 3 runs or fewer in 14 of their last 25 games, compared to just 5 times in their previous 25. In their last 19 games, beginning 5/19, the Sox rank 19th in MLB in AVG (.231) and OBP (.309)…They entered that span ranked 2nd in MLB in AVG (.272) and OBP (.342).

RED SOX OFFENSE
Dates Record AVG OPS Runs/Game
3/30-4/13 5-8 .235 .731 5.5
4/14-5/11 17-8 .286 .818 5.8
5/12-pres. 9-16 .246 .709 4.0

DEFENSIVE DROP: The Red Sox have made 20 errors in their last 25 games, beginning 5/12 (0.80 per game)…They are tied with NYY for most errors in MLB during that span. The Sox have made 11 errors in their last 10 games following a season-long 6-game errorless streak from 5/22-28.

SLUGGING SOX: The Red Sox are tied for the MLB lead in doubles (143), and rank top 5 in runs (5th, 316), OBP (5th, .332), and XBH (5th, 216). The Sox rank 3rd in the AL and 6th in MLB in SO% (20.8).

SELECTIVE SOX: Red Sox batters have drawn at least 4 walks in a season-high 8 consecutive games, the 3rd-longest streak by any team this season (DET and LAD-10 each). The last time the Sox had 4+ walks in as many as 8 consecutive games was 8/28-9/6/2004 (9 straight). The Sox have a 10.6 BB% in their last 15 games, after entering that span with an 8.3 BB%. The Red Sox have averaged 3.96 pitches per plate appearance, 2nd most in the AL and 6th most in MLB.

RUNNIN’ RED SOX: The Red Sox rank 3rd in the AL and 5th in MLB in SB% (83.7%, 36-for-43). The Sox ranked 22nd in MLB with a 72.2 SB% in 2022.
34% of the Red Sox’ baserunners have scored, tied for the 5th-highest percentage in MLB.

FOUR SCORE AND…: The Red Sox are 29-10 when they score 4 or more runs, compared to 2-22 when they don’t. The Sox’ 39 games with 4+ runs scored are tied for 3rd most in the AL behind TB (47) and TEX (43). They have scored 4+ runs just once in their last 6 games, after doing so in 4 straight from 5/30-6/3-G1.

CLOSE SHAVES: 8 of the Red Sox’ last 12 games have been decided by 3 runs or fewer, including 4 one-run games and 2 two-run games. The Sox have lost 4 of their 6 one-run games since 5/3. Boston’s 10 losses by 1 run are 5th most in the AL behind CLE (17), SEA (12), MIN (12), and OAK (11).

ON THE MEND: Yu Chang started at SS for Triple-A Worcester last night vs. Rochester and went 1-for-2. In his last 2 rehab games with the WooSox, Chang is 3-for-5 with a run scored, an RBI, and a stolen base

TONIGHT’S STARTER: 22 GARRETT WHITLOCK – RHP
W-L ERA G GS IP ER HR BB SO WHIP AVG
2023 2-2 5.14 4 4 21.0 12 5 3 15 1.19 .278
CAREER 14-8 3.02 81 13 172.2 58 21 35 178 1.08 .233

Allowed 4 runs over 4.2 IP in Game 1 on Saturday vs. TB (6 H, 2 BB, 5 SO). Is 3-1 with a 2.00 ERA (4 ER/18.0 IP) in 12 career outings (all in relief) vs. NYY. Has walked only 5 of his 106 batters faced (4.7%)…Ranks in MLB’s 91st percentile in BB%, as well as in the 99th percentile in extension. Opponents are 4-for-22 with 8 SO in at-bats ending with a sweeper. Among Red Sox pitchers in the Live Ball Era (min. 150.0 IP), ranks 18th in ERA (3.15) and 5th in SO/BB ratio (4.95) behind only Koji Uehara (7.86), Chris Sale (6.25), Pedro Martinez (5.45), and Curt Schilling (5.31). Owns a 2.86 ERA (24 ER/90.0 IP) in 43 career games (4 starts) following a team loss.

NEW YORK YANKEES NOTES:

AT A GLANCE: The Yankees continue their six-game homestand tonight with the first game of a three-game set vs. Boston (through Sunday)…began the homestand by dropping two-of-three games vs. Chicago-AL…after this homestand, will play a two-game Subway Series vs. the Mets at Citi Field (Tues.- Wed.) before traveling to Boston for a three-game set (6/16-18).

At 37-27 (.578), have the fourth-best record in the AL and the sixth-best record in the Majors.

Are 7-4 in their last 11 games, 12-7 in their last 19 games, 14-8 in their last 22 games, 16-9 in their last 25 games and 19-10 in their last 29 games.

Are 22-12 (.647) in their last 34 games (since 5/2), the second-best record in the Majors in that span, trailing only Texas (23-10, .697).

Have won three of their last four series and five of their last seven series…have won or split seven of their last nine series (since 5/8) and eight of their last 11 series (since 5/1).

YESTERDAY’S NEWS: The Yankees split their single-admission doubleheader on Thursday vs. the White Sox…fell to the White Sox, 6-5, in Game 1 before recording a 3-0 win in Game 2.

Yankees pitchers allowed a season-high-tying 4HR in Game 1…RHP Luis Severino (5.0IP, 6H, 4ER, 2BB, 6K, 3HR, 1HP) started and did not record a decision…RF Willie Calhoun (2-for-4, 1R, 1HR, 3RBI) drove in three of the Yankees’ five runs, hitting an RBI single in the second inning and a game-tying two-run home run in the fourth inning…C Kyle Higashioka (2-for-3, 2R, 1 double, 1RBI) hit an RBI double in the second inning…SS Oswaldo Cabrera (1-for-4, 1RBI) hit a go-ahead RBI single in the fifth inning…RHP Michael King (2.0IP, 2H, 2ER, 2K, 1HR) took the loss after allowing a go-ahead two-run HR to Eloy Jiménez in the seventh inning.

The Yankees recorded their fourth shutout of the season in Game 2…RHP Randy Vásquez (5.2IP, 2H, 0R, 1BB, 3K, 1HP) made his second career start and recorded his first career win after tossing 5.2 scoreless innings…2B Gleyber Torres (1-for-4, 1R, 1HR, 2RBI) hit a go-ahead two-run HR off Mike Clevinger in the fourth inning… LF Billy McKinney (1-for-2, 1R, 1HR, 1RBI) hit his first HR as a Yankee with a solo HR in the fifth inning…RHP Ron Marinaccio (2.1IP, 1BB, 4K) tossed a career-high 2.1 scoreless innings in relief…RHP Clay Holmes (1.0IP, 1BB) recorded his seventh save of the season after tossing a scoreless ninth inning.

BRONX BOMBERS: Yankees batters have hit 99HR this season, the second-most home runs in the AL and the fourth-most in the Majors…their 65HR since the beginning of May are the most in the Majors in that span.

The Yankees have had a Major League-leading 18 different players homer this season, matching their 2022 total.

Their 32 games with multiple home runs are tied with Tampa Bay for the most in the Majors this season.

Have hit 12HR over their last six games and 21HR in their last 11 games.

Have hit multiple HR in six of their last 10 games.

Since 5/1, rank fourth in runs scored (181), runs scored per game (5.17) and SLG (.456).

WHAT A RELIEF: Yankees relievers have posted a Major League-best 2.81 ERA (243.1IP, 76ER) and a .209 opponents’ BA…the Yankees are the only Major League bullpen that currently owns an ERA below 3.00 (next: Cleveland – 3.12).

Own a Major League-best 0.74 HR/9.0IP, .333 opponents’ SLG and .633 opponents’ OPS…rank second in the Majors in WHIP (1.18).

Have posted a 1.50 ERA (36.0IP, 6ER) in their last 11 games (since 5/27) and a 1.94 ERA (69.2IP, 15ER) in their last 19 games (since 5/18)…have held opponents to a .151 BA (36-for-239) over that 19-game stretch.

HOLMES SWEET HOLMES: RHP Clay Holmes has not allowed a run in 15 of his last 16 appearances (since 5/6), going 4-0 with three saves and a 0.55 ERA (16.1IP, 1ER) and 20K in that span.

CLOSE CALLS: Each of the Yankees’ last five games and six of their last seven games have been decided by 3R-or-fewer.

TONIGHT’S STARTING PITCHER: RHP GERRIT COLE (7-0, 2.82 ERA)
RHP Gerrit Cole will make his 14th start of the season in tonight’s series opener vs. Boston…the 32-year-old will pitch on extended five days’ rest…last started on Saturday at Los Angeles-NL and recorded the win in the Yankees’ 6-3 victory (6.0IP, 4H, 1ER, 2BB, 5K, 0HR, 1HP)…reached 10 years of Major League service last week (on 5/29)…recorded his 2,000th career strikeout on 5/23 vs. Baltimore (Jorge Mateo swinging), becoming the third-fastest pitcher in Major League history to reach the milestone (in terms of games and innings pitched)…is 7-0 with a 2.82 ERA (79.2IP, 25ER) and 84K in 13 starts this season…has allowed 2R-or-fewer in 10 of his first 13 starts, the third-most such starts in the Majors…the Yankees are 11-2 in his 13 starts this season…in his third year with the Yankees in 2022, went 13-8 with a 3.50 ERA (200.2IP, 154H, 81R/78ER, 50BB, 257K, 33HR) in 33 regular season starts…his Major League-leading 257K last season were the most by a Yankees pitcher in a single season in franchise history, surpassing Ron Guidry’s previous record of 248K in 1978…the five-time All-Star (2015, ’18-19, ’21-22) has finished in the top-five of Cy Young Award voting five times (second in 2021, fourth in 2020, second in 2019, fifth in 2018, fourth in 2015)…his career 10.48 K/9.0IP ratio (2,014K/1,729.2IP) is the eighth-highest in Major League history (min. 1,000.0IP)…in 88 starts with the Yankees, is 43-19 with a 3.22 ERA (534.2IP, 191ER) and 678K…since 2018, leads the Majors in wins (78) and strikeouts (1,280), ranks second in K/9.0IP (12.16) and innings pitched (947.1), third in opponents’ BA (.204) and winning percentage (.729, 78-29, min. 60 decisions), tied for third in WAR among pitchers (24.7 – FanGraphs), fourth in WHIP (1.01), fifth in K/BB (5.16) and sixth in ERA (2.98)…was originally selected by the Yankees in the first round (28th overall) of the 2008 MLB First-Year Player Draft but did not sign and went on to play at UCLA for three seasons (2009-11)…was the first overall pick of the 2011 First-Year Player Draft, the 15th pitcher (and 11th right-hander) to be chosen first…is the fifth player selected first overall to play for the Yankees, joining Alex Rodriguez, Darryl Strawberry, Tim Foli and Ron Blomberg…signed a nine-year contract extending through the 2028 season with a player opt-out following the 2024 season on 12/18/19.

LAST START: Earned his team-leading seventh win in the Yankees’ 6-3 victory at Los Angeles-AL on Saturday (6.0IP, 4H, 1ER, 2BB, 5K, 0HR, 1HP)…left the game with cramping… allowed his only run on an RBI single to David Peralta in the second inning.

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