Monday, December 23, 2024
Fantasy Guru - Baseball

MLB Preview: Baltimore Orioles (45-27) at Tampa Bay Rays (51-25)

BALTIMORE ORIOLES NOTES:

YESTERDAY’S NEWS: The Orioles defeated the Rays last night, 8-6, in the first game of the two-game set…Have won three straight games against Tampa Bay for the first time since also winning three in a row against them from July 31 to August 2, 2020.

Kyle Bradish earned his first career win against an AL East opponent after allowing two runs on four hits with two walks, a hit batter, and eight strikeouts in 5.0 innings.

Félix Bautista (1.1 IP, 2 K) tallied his 20th save of the season; according to the Elias Sports Bureau, he is the fifth O’s pitcher to record a save on his birthday since saves became an official stat in 1969, along with Randy Myers on September 19 (G2), 1996 at New York-AL, Tom Niedenfuer on August 13, 1987 vs. Milwaukee, Tippy Martinez on May 31, 1982 vs. Texas, and Grant Jackson on September 28 (G2), 1973 vs. Cleveland.

Aaron Hicks, Anthony Santander, and Ryan O’Hearn each homered in the victory; Santander has homered in back-to-back games for the third time this season and first since May 18-19.

SWEEP DREAMS: The Orioles are seeking their fifth series sweep of the season today, first since a three-game set against the Royals at Oriole Park from June 9-11, and first on the road since taking three games against the Blue Jays at Rogers Centre from May 19-21… Would be their first sweep of at least two games against the Rays since a three-game set at Oriole Park from July 31 to August 2, 2020, and first sweep at Tropicana Field since a threegame set from May 6-8, 2014…The Orioles have never swept a two-game set at the Trop.

ROAD WARRIORS: The Orioles wrap up their five-game road trip today with the finale of a two-game set in Tampa Bay…The trip began with three games at Chicago-NL over the weekend (1-2) before an off day on Monday.

Baltimore is 23-14 (.622) away from Camden Yards this season, the third-best road record in MLB behind Atlanta (23-11) and Arizona (21-12); the Birds went 38-43 (.469) on the road in 2022 after going a combined 114-237 (.325) away from Oriole Park from 2017-21.

AGAINST THE RAYS: The Orioles and Rays are meeting for the second series this season and first at Tropicana Field…Baltimore took two out of three games against Tampa Bay at Oriole Park from May 8-10…The Orioles will return to the Trop for four games from July 20- 23 before hosting the Rays for four games in Baltimore from September 14-17…The O’s went 9-10 against Tampa Bay last year, 7-3 at Oriole Park and 2-7 at Tropicana Field…The season series was not decided until the 19th and final game on August 14 in Tampa Bay.

WHAT’S TRENDING: The O’s have won seven of their last 10 games, 36 of 56, 39 of 60, and 41 of 63…The 45-27 (.625) overall record is the second-best in the AL and third-best in MLB (see box at right)…Marks the eighth time since 1954 that the O’s have won 45 of their first 72 games and first since 1997 (49-23).

OPENING STATEMENTS: Orioles starting pitchers have not allowed more than three runs in 11 straight games and in 20 of the last 21 games…The starters have a 3.29 ERA (23 ER/63.0 IP) since June 8 and a 3.71 ERA (47 ER/114.0 IP) since May 27…In the team’s first 51 games through May 26, O’s starters had a 4.97 ERA (147 ER/266.0 IP).

BROHEARN: Ryan O’Hearn has slashed .397/.424/.778 (25-for-63) with six doubles, six homers, 15 runs scored, 14 RBI, and three walks in his last 19 games (17 GS) since May 16… Among players with at least 60 plate appearances during that time, he ranks second in batting average, slugging, and OPS (1.202)…He’s matched his career high with three hits three times during this stretch (6/16 at CHC, 6/11 vs.KC, & 5/20 at TOR).

HAYS OF OUR LIVES: Austin Hays leads the AL and ranks tied for second in MLB with a .327 batting average…He’s also among AL leaders in slugging percentage (4th, .527), OPS (4th, .893), doubles (T-4th, 21), hits (6th, 80), and on-base percentage (9th, .366)…Only one Oriole has ever won a batting title: Orioles Legend and Hall of Famer Frank Robinson, who hit .316 in 1966…Hanser Alberto, who finished with a .305 batting average in 2019, is the only qualified Oriole in the last 14 seasons to finish the year with a batting average of at least .300.

Hays has recorded multiple hits in a career-long five straight games, the longest active streak in MLB and second-longest by an O’s batter this season, behind Anthony Santander’s six consecutive multi-hit games from May 2-7; he has recorded back-to-back three-hit games for the second time in his career after also doing so from September 23-24, 2020; his 25 multi-hit games are tied for fourth in the AL and ninth in MLB; six of those have come in the last seven games and he has eight multi-hit performances in 16 games this month.

YOUNG GUNN: Gunnar Henderson is slashing .347/.373/.694 (17-for-49) with two doubles, five homers, eight runs scored, 12 RBI, two walks, and two stolen bases in 13 June games (12 GS) …He ranks among AL leaders in home runs (T-3rd) and RBI (T-9th) this month…Henderson homered in three straight games from June 10-13, becoming the first O’s rookie to do so since Ryan Mountcastle from June 2-5, 2021…He also scored a run in five consecutive games from June 8-13, one shy of his career high set earlier this year from April 11-16.

He earned his first AL Player of the Week honor for the week of June 5-11; he’s the first Oriole to win the award since Mountcastle in June 2021.

TODAY’S STRATING PITCHER – #68 TYLER WELLS RHP

QUICK HITS: Scheduled to make his 15th appearance (14th start) of the season, seventh on the road, and and ninth career appearance (fifth start) against Tampa Bay today…Went 7-7 with a 4.25 ERA (49 ER/103.2 IP) in 23 starts for the O’s in 2022…Made his first career start on April 10, 2022 at Tampa Bay; dealt the loss after allowing four runs on three hits (1 HR) with two walks and two strikeouts in 1.2 innings…Did not walk a batter in five consecutive starts from April 21 to May 15, 2022, becoming the only Oriole starting pitcher in franchise history (since 1954) to not walk a batter in five consecutive games…Allowed three earned runs-orfewer in 17 straight starts from April 16 to July 15, 2022…Ended the 2022 season on the 15-day Injured List with right shoulder inflammation…Also spent time on the Injured List with lower left side discomfort in 2022…Originally selected by Minnesota in the 15th round of the 2016 First-Year Player Draft out of Cal State, San Bernardino before being taken by the Orioles in the Rule 5 Draft on December 10, 2020.

LAST TIME OUT: Earned his sixth win of the season after allowing two runs on five hits (2 HR) with one walk and eight strikeouts in 6.2 innings on June 15 vs. Toronto…Picked off Whit Merrifield at first base to end the fourth inning…Has allowed 71 baserunners (54 H, 16 BB, 1 HBP) through his first 14 appearances (13 starts) this season, the fewest among qualified MLB pitchers (min. 70.0 IP)… Threw 90 pitches, 65 strikes.

WATCH ME WHIP: Wells enters play today leading MLB with a 0.86 WHIP…Also ranks among qualified pitchers in opponent on-base percentage (1st, .226), batting average (2nd, .183), H/9 (2nd, 5.95), OPS (7th, .613), and BB/9 (6th, 1.76)…Has allowed 71 baserunners (54 H, 16 BB, 1 HBP) across 14 appearances (75.0 IP) this season, the fewest in MLB (min. 70.0 IP)…His 54 hits surrendered this season are the second-fewest among qualified pitchers, while his 16 walks are tied for the fifth-fewest…He posted a 0.72 WHIP in April, tied for the seventh-lowest mark by an O’s pitcher in a calendar month in club history (since 1954) and lowest since Scott McGregor recorded a franchise-record 0.61 WHIP in May 1978…Wells issued just three walks and allowed 18 hits in 29.0 innings through his first five appearances (four starts) in April.

ROAD TRIPPIN’: In 37 career road appearances (17 starts), Wells has gone 7-5 with a 3.38 ERA (42 ER/112.0 IP) and two saves…Has made six road appearances (five starts) this season, going 2-0 with a 4.26 ERA (15 ER/31.2 IP)…Made 12 starts away from home in 2022, sporting a 5-5 record with a 3.81 ERA (24 ER/56.2 IP) and 41
strikeouts.

LOVING LEFTIES: Opposing left-handed batters are slashing .186/.223/.332 (71-for-382) against Wells through his first 81 career games (36 starts)…He has recorded more career strikeouts against lefties (109) than hits allowed (71)… Ranks among qualified pitchers in opponent on-base percentage (2nd, .223), OPS (8th, .556), and batting average (8th, .186) against lefties in MLB since he debuted in 2021 (min. 300 BFP).

CAREER AGAINST THE RAYS: Making his ninth appearance (fifth start) against the Rays today…Owns an 0-2 record with a 6.45 ERA (16 ER/22.1 IP) in eight career appearances (four starts) against the Rays…Did not factor into the decision in his last start against the division rival on on July 27, 2022 at Oriole Park…Allowed four runs on six hits (2 HR) with five strikeouts in 4.1 innings…Threw 69 pitches, 47 strikes.

CAREER AGAINST THE AL EAST: Making his 37th career appearance (16th start) against the AL East…Owns a 5-7 record with a 4.99 ERA (56 ER/101.0 IP) and one save through 36 career outings against the division…Earned the win in his last outing against the division on June 15 vs. Toronto…Allowed two runs on five hits (2 HR) with one walk and eight strikeouts in 6.2 innings…Threw 90 pitches, 65 strikes.

TAMPA BAY RAYS NOTES:

NOT QUITE ENOUGH — Tampa Bay’s comeback bid from a 7-0 deficit came up short in an 8-6 loss to Baltimore on Tuesday night, the first half of the current two-game set…the Orioles pushed across six runs over the first two frames against Rays starter RHP Tyler Glasnow (4.1IP, 6H, 6ER, 2BB, 7SO, 2HR), including a pair of homers…Baltimore tacked on a seventh run on a fifth-inning solo shot before C Francisco Mejía (1-for-4, 2B, RBI, R) got the Rays on the board with an RBI-double in the bottom of the frame to kick off Tampa Bay’s six-run rally across the fifth and sixth innings…after PH/CF Manuel Margot (1- for-2, 2RBI) delivered a two-run single in the sixth, the Rays were held scoreless by the Orioles bullpen the rest of the way.

The loss marked Tampa Bay’s third straight defeat, giving the Rays their first losing streak of 3+ games since a five-game skid to conclude the 2022 season…it also marked their first loss in a series opener at home (entered 12-0).

HOME COOKING — Tampa Bay’s 31-8 (.795) record at Tropicana Field represents MLB’s best start at home since the 2008 Chicago Cubs (31-8)…the Rays are one of 11 teams since 1901 to win at least 31 of their first 39 home games (excluding ties) in a season, including one of four in the Integration Era (since 1947), along with the 2008 Cubs, 1998 New York Yankees (33-6) and 1978 Boston Red Sox (33-6)…Tampa Bay has won nine of 12, 13 of 18, and 17 of its last 23 games on home turf overall and has lost back-to-back home games just once all season (4/25-26 vs. HOU).

The Rays are 11-1-0 in series play at home, including seven consecutive series victories…with a win today, they would secure a split and remain undefeated over their last eight home series.

Tampa Bay hitters rank among MLB leaders at home in several categories, including stolen bases (1st, 48), SLG (2nd, .481), homers (T2nd, 62), OPS (3rd, .824), runs per game (3rd, 5.85) and extra-base hits (3rd, 144).

IN A PINCH — Rays pinch hitters are batting a combined .361 (13-for-36) while producing a .465 OBP; both marks lead the majors, ahead of Miami (.350 AVG, .395 OBP)…they also have the second-lowest strikeout rate (18.6%) behind only Texas (18.2%)…since 2020, Tampa Bay pinch hitters lead the majors with a .269 average (77-for-286), outpacing Washington (.264), while producing an MLB-best .751 OPS, ahead of Seattle (.750).

BRILLIANCE ON THE BASEPATHS — The Rays lead MLB with 96 stolen bases, ahead of Cincinnati (78SB)…it marks the most stolen bases through 76 games by any club since the 2009 Rays (116SB)…Tampa Bay leads the AL and ranks third in the majors with a 48.0 pct. extra-base taken percentage, which is defined as the percent of times a runner advances more than one base on a single or more than two bases on a double, when possible.

Rays baserunners have gone from first to third on singles 48 times, third most in MLB behind Colorado (52) and Atlanta (50).

The Rays have accumulated an AL-best 6.7 BsR, which is FanGraphs’ all-encompassing baserunning metric that consolidates all baserunning plays into runs above and below average.

BLOOMING IN JUNE — Rays pitching leads the majors in several categories during the month of June, including ERA (3.10), opp. average (.202), opp. SLG (.332), opp. OPS (.628), hits per 9.0 IP (6.54), pct. of inherited runners scored (11.1%) and fewest total bases against (187).

Luke Raley is batting .364 (16-for-44) with five doubles, two triples, two homers and 6 RBI in 12 June games…he ranks among AL leaders (min. 40PA) in SLG (4th, .705), OPS (4th, 1.082), AVG (T6th) and extra-base hits (T8th, 9) during June.

Harold Ramírez is slashing .357/.391/.524 (15-for-42) with four doubles, one homer and 8 RBI in 13 games this month.

Francisco Mejía has turned in a .370/.393/.630 (10-for-27) line with four doubles, one homer and 5 RBI in eight June games.

Isaac Paredes ranks third in the AL with a .438 OBP during June, trailing TEX Corey Seager (.482) and LAA Shohei Ohtani (.476), while his .979 OPS is seventh.

RANDY LAND — Randy Arozarena has a 29-game on-base streak at Tropicana Field dating back to 4/12, the second-longest active home on-base streak in the majors behind COL Jurickson Profar (30G)…during the streak, he is slashing .278/.437/.533 (25-for-90) with three doubles, one triple, six homers, 20 RBI, eight hit-by-pitches and 19 walks.

It ties the fifth-longest overall home on-base streak in Rays history and ties the third-longest single-season streak in club history…the last Ray with a longer single-season streak was Evan Longoria (34G) from 4/6-6/22, 2010.

Last night, Arozarena was hit by a pitch for the 41st time in his career, surpassing Sean Rodriguez for fourth most in club history, 10 shy of third-place Carlos Peña (51)…he also trails Brandon Guyer (58) and Longoria (55).

‘PEN PALS — Over the last 16 games since 6/4, the Rays bullpen has produced a 1.79 ERA (60.1IP, 12ER) while holding opponents to a .158/.267/.272 (47-for-220) clip…they pace all MLB bullpens in ERA, opp. average, opp. SLG, opp. OPS (.540) and WHIP (0.94) during that timeframe.

RHP Kevin Kelly has strung together an 11.0 scoreless inning streak, tied for the fifth-longest active streak among AL relievers — TEX Josh Sborz (12.2) has the longest streak…Kelly has held opponents to a .162 AVG (6-for-37) during the run.

X’S AND O’S — The Rays and Orioles meet this afternoon for the fifth of 13 matchups this season…Baltimore took two of three games at Oriole Park from 5/8-10 despite both clubs plating six runs in the series…Tampa Bay is 69-40 (.633) against Baltimore since 2017, its most wins over any opponent in that stretch, ahead of Toronto (66-46).

With a loss today, the Rays would be swept by the Orioles for the first time since 7/31-8/2, 2020 (4G), and the first time at Tropicana Field since 5/6-8, 2014 (3G).

TODAY’S STARTER: RHP TAJ BRADLEY (4-3, 4.19)
TALKIN’ TAJ — Tampa Bay’s No. 1 prospect and the No. 16 prospect in baseball (MLB.com) will make his 10th career start today, including his fifth at home…ranks among AL rookies (min. 40.0IP) in strikeout rate (1st, 34.1%), strikeouts (3rd, 63), wins (T4th, 4) and ERA (8th, 4.19).

DEBUT DERBY — Bradley was the second of five Rays to make their major league debuts in 2023, along with RHP Kevin Kelly (4/1 vs. DET), RHP Braden Bristo (4/13 vs. BOS), LHP Joe La Sorsa (5/29 at CHC) and LHP José Lopez (6/10 vs. TEX)…he was the first pitcher to debut with the Rays as a starter since RHP Tommy Romero, who served as an opener on 4/12/2022 vs. Oakland.

Bradley won in his debut on 4/12 vs. BOS after tossing 5.0 innings, allowing three runs on five hits and one walk with eight strikeouts.

LAST TIME OUT — Bradley did not factor into the decision on 6/15 at Oakland after working 4.1 innings, allowing three runs (2 ER) on four hits and three walks with a career-high 11 strikeouts.

The 11 strikeouts were tied for the second most by a Rays rookie in franchise history and the most since Jake Odorizzi (11SO) on 5/9/14.

The most strikeouts he had in his minor league career was 10 (2x, last 6/5/21 at AUG).

Each of his first nine outs came via the strikeout, becoming the second pitcher in MLB to accomplish the feat this season (TEX Andrew Heaney, 10SO on 4/10) and the first rookie since ATL Spencer Strider struck out the first nine hitters on 7/7/22 (Elias).

UNFAMILIAR FOE — Bradley will be making his first career start against the Orioles this afternoon…in three career starts against AL East opponents, he is 2-1 with a 5.79 ERA (14.0IP, 9ER) and 21 strikeouts against four walks.

STRIKEOUT SAVANT — Bradley’s 63 strikeouts are the most through a pitcher’s first nine starts with the Rays in franchise history, ahead of Charlie Morton (61 SO in 2019) and Drew Smyly (59 SO in 2014).

Since his debut on 4/12, Bradley’s 38.8 pct. strikeout rate is second highest among major league starters (min. 9GS), trailing only ATL Spencer Strider (39.1%).

TOO MANY FREE RIDES — He has issued 10 walks over his last three starts after allowing just five walks in his first five career starts from 4/12-5/29.

ABOVE THE CURVE — Bradley utilizes his curveball 15.2 pct. of the time and is holding opponents to a .160 (4-for-25) average on the offering…he has allowed just one extra-base hit on the pitch, a homer to TOR George Springer on 5/23.

ROAD WARRIOR — In five road starts, Bradley is 2-1 with a 2.13 ERA (25.1IP, 6ER) and 28 strikeouts against 10 walks with a .204 opponent average (19-for-93)…in four starts at Tropicana Field, he is 2-2 with a 7.13 ERA (17.2IP, 14ER).

THIS AND THAT — The right-hander has held opponents to a .157 clip (15-for-102) with six walks in two-strike counts…opposing 6-9 hitters are 9-for-61 (.148) against him compared to .306 (32-for-105) vs. the first five spots in the order…when leading off an inning, opposing batters are hitting .381 (16-for-42) with three doubles, two triples and three home runs.

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