MLB Preview: Atlanta Braves (72-41) at New York Mets (52-62)

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ATLANTA BRAVES NOTES:

First to Forty
Matt Olson slugged his 40th home run of the season yesterday afternoon in Pittsburgh, setting a new single-season career high. He reached the milestone in Atlanta’s 113th game of the season, and became the quickest Brave by team games in franchise history to collect 40 homers. Andruw Jones held the previous mark, reaching 40 homers in Atlanta’s 126th game in 2005. In baseball’s live-ball era (since 1920), he is one of just 13 players (19 total instances) to have 40 homers and 100 RBI by his teams 113th game. Olson’s 40 homers are most in the National League, and are tied with the Angels’ Shohei Ohtani for the most in baseball.

TONIGHT’S GAME: The Braves and Mets tonight open a four-game weeekend series with what is the seventh of 13 games between the teams this season… The two will meet for the final time just eight days after the conclusion of this series with a three-game set at Truist Park, August 21-23.

  • Atlanta is 5-1 in six games with New York this season,…The Braves have won 11 of the last 13 games with New York dating to last season, outscoring the Mets 84-51 (+33) over the stretch.
  • The Braves went 10-9 against the Mets last season, taking the season set from their N.L. East rivals for the fifth consecutive season…They also went 10-9 in 2021, 7-3 in 2020, 11-8 in 2019 and 13-6 in 2018…Since the start of the 2018 season, Atlanta is 56-36 (.609) against New York overall.
  • Atlanta has won two of three games here at Citi Field this season, and is 72-57 (.558) here all-time… Just four teams in baseball have a better winning percentage here since the stadium opened in 2009, and Atlanta’s .558 mark is the best of any team to play here at least 45 times.
  • RH Charlie Morton is 4-6 with a 3.99 ERA (47 ER/106.0 IP) in his career against New York, making 19 total starts and the only relief appearances of his career versus the Mets…The 6-foot-5, 215-pound right-hander has made two starts against New York this season, going 0-1 with a 7.20 ERA and allowing eight runs in 10.0 total innings…In 22 starts for Atlanta this season, he is an even 10-10 with a 3.86 ERA (53 ER/123.2 IP).
  • RH Tylor Megill has made six starts and seven total appearances against Atlanta in his career, compiling a 1-1 record with a 4.02 ERA (14 ER/31.1 IP)… The 6-foot-7, 230-pound native of Long Beach, CA, started against the Braves earlier this season at Truist Park, May 1, and allowed four hits and three runs over 5.2 innings in a no-decision…In 16 total starts for the Mets this season, he is 6-5 with a 5.45 ERA (46 ER/76.0 IP) and 61 strikeouts.

LOSS: Atlanta lost to Pittsburgh, 7-5, yesterday, despite holding a four-run lead through three innings…The Braves and Pirates split the four-game series, two games apiece.

  • Atlanta is 42-5 (.894) this season when leading by four runs at any point, and its five losses are tied for most in the majors…The Braves had won 15 straight games when leading by four, last losing on June 23 at Cincinnati.
  • Atlanta outhit Pittsburgh, 12-10, yesterday, and both of the Braves losses to the Pirates came in games in which they had more hits…Atlanta entered the series with Pittsburgh 56-5 (.918) when it outhit its opponents this year.
  • The Braves have lost three straight day games, dropping the final two games in Chicago before yesterday’s loss…Atlanta is still 26-14 (.650) in day games this season, the best record in the N.L.

LAST SERIES VS. NEW YORK: Atlanta swept New York in three games the last time these clubs met, June 6-8 at Truist Park…The Braves trailed by at least three runs in all three games versus the Mets, and came back to win all three.

  • Atlanta faced a three-run decifit in each of the first two games, and a four-run hole in the finale.
  • Per the Elias Sports Bureau, the Braves had never erased deficits of at least three runs in three straight games to win in baseball’s modern era (since 1900).
  • The franchise did so three times in the 1800’s, most recently in 1894.
  • New York held a win probability of at least 85% in all three games of the series, including a series-high mark of 95% in the bottom of the eighth inning in the final game.
  • Atlanta is 31-39 (.443) when trailing at any point in a game this season, the best record in the N.L. and behind just Baltimore (35-41, .461) for best in the majors.

STARTING PITCHING: Bryce Elder started for Atlanta yesterday afternoon, and allowed six hits and five runs over 5.0 innings…Atlanta starters have allowed at least four runs in each of their last six games, including at least five runs in five of those.

  • No Braves starter has completed more than 5.0 innings in their last six games dating to August 5.
  • Prior to this current stretch, the Braves had allowed four runs and gotten no more than 5.0 innings from a starter in consecutive games just four times all season, and had never done so in three straight games.
  • Since the All-Star break, Atlanta’s 6.15 ERA (82 ER/120.0 IP) from the rotation is second highest in the majors, better than just Pittsburgh (6.21)… However, the Braves have a 4.54 FIP from their starters in that span, 19th in the majors.

MORTON’S CURVEBALL: Charlie Morton has thrown 938 curveballs this season, most in the majors, and the pitch ranks in the 97th percentile in spin… He has collected 91 strikeouts via curveball this season, 13 more than any other pitcher in baseball

  • Per Baseball Savant, Morton’s curveball has a 40.4% whiff percentage, the third most by a single pitch in the majors…Only Kevin Gausman’s splitter (42.4%) and Dylan Cease’s slider (41.7%) get swings and misses more often (min. 200 plate appearances).
  • Also per Baseball Savant, Morton’s curve has a run value of 15 this season, making in the fifth-most valuable pitch in the majors…It trails just the fourseamers of Gerrit Cole (21) and Zac Gallen (19), Logan Webb’s changeup (18) and Chris Bassitt’s sinker (16).
  • Morton’s 500 strikeouts on the pitch since the 2019 sesaon are over 100 more than any other pitcher

Tonight’s Starting Pitcher – #50 Charlie Morton RHP
2023 Record: 10-10, 3.86 ERA • 2022 Record: 9-6, 4.34 ERA
vs. RHB: .262 (66-252), 6 HR • vs. LHB: .246 (54-220), 7 HR
Home: 5-5, 3.90 ERA (27/62.1) • Away: 5-5, 3.82 ERA (26/61.1)

Today’s Game

  • Set to make his 23rd start of the season and third against New York (NL).
  • Surrendered five runs, four hits, and four walks in 4.1 innings pitched against the Cubs in Chicago in his last start.
  • Was dealt his fourth loss in consecutive games; tied for the longest active streak in the majors for consecutive losses in as many appearances.
  • Pitching to a 7.32 ERA in the four-game skid; had a 3.20 ERA on the season before the streak.
  • Has 20 starts in 10 different seasons.
  • Earned his 10th win of the season spinning 7.0 shutout-innings against CWS.
  • Morton has now won at least 10 games in six different seasons.
  • His 10 wins are tied for fifth most in the National League.
  • Became the first Braves pitcher since R.A. Dickey in 2017 to toss 7.0 scoreless frames and get the win age 39 or older.
  • Joined Justin Verlander and Adam Wainwright as the only active pitchers in baseball to win at least 10 games at the age of 39 or older in a season.
  • Became just the fifth pitcher in the Braves franchise history to record 10 wins in a season after turning 39 (Niekro [5], Spahn [4], Smoltz [2], Dickey [1]).
  • Morton has struck out 364 hitters with his curveball since the beginning of the 2020; the most in the majors.
  • During that span hitters are missing on 52.9% of curveballs thrown, the second highest rate in the majors…The MLB average is 11.5% (among QS).
  • Utilizing his curveball on 44.2% of pitches thrown this season.
  • Morton’s 1036 strikeouts since the 2018 season are the fourth most in baseball.
  • Prior to the 2018 season, Morton threw his curveball on 21.3% of pitches throughout his career.
  • Since the beginning of 2018 he has thrown his curve on 36.6% of pitches.
  • Morton’s 31.5% swing and miss rate is the fifth highest among qualifiers in the NL.
  • Teammate Spencer Strider leads league with a rate of 40.3%
  • Hitters are registering a .324 batting average on balls in play against Morton in ’23.
  • Since the beginning of June, Morton owns a .308 BABIP.
  • Had a .337 battting average on balls in play through his first 10 starts.
  • Hitters are averaging a 8.20 launch angle against Morton; MLB average is 11.40.
  • In his age 39 season, Morton is the sixth-oldest active pitcher in the majors.

2023 Recap

  • Morton is one six active pitchers with at least 15 starts in 13 different seasons.
  • Trails only Zack Greinke (17), Clayton Kershaw (15), Justin Verlander (15), Max Scherzer (14), and Cole Hamels (14).
  • Morton struck out Miami’s Bryan De La Cruz for 1,800 on his career.
  • Is now one of 13 acitve pitchers in baseball with as many punchouts.
  • Became the sixth pitcher in franchise history to pitch at least 6.0 innings and strikeout nine or more in an outing at age 39 or older.
  • Passed R.A. Dickey and Hall-of-Famer Cy Young with three such games.
  • Trails Hall-of-Famers Phil Niekro (10), John Smoltz (8), and Warren Spahn (4).
  • Struck out 10 hitters over 6.2 scoreless innings in his win against Texas on May 15.
  • Has now struckout at least 10 hitters in six games since turning 38, passing Hall-of-Famer Cy Young for the ninth most such games dating to 1901.
  • Morton is the first player with at least six games of 10 or more strikeouts at his age since Hall-of-Famers Randy Johnson and John Smoltz.

NEW YORK METS NOTES:

METSCELLANEOUS: The Mets enjoyed a day off on Thursday…On Wednesday, the Mets defeated the Cubs, 4-3…The Mets continue a 10-day, 10-game homestand (2-1) against the Cubs (2-1), Braves (four games) and Pirates (three games).

RANK AND FILE: The Mets feature five players on MLB Pipelines revised 2023 Prospect Rankings – Luisangel Acuña(#40), Drew Gilbert (#57), Jett Williams (#84), Ronny Mauricio(#93) and Kevin Parada(#96).

THE EAST IS A BEAST: The Mets are 16-14 against the NL East this season…The team has posted a 3.99 ERA against their division, while hitting .243/.325/.398.

JEFF McHITS: In 18 games since July 21, Jeff McNeil is batting .290 (20-69) with 12 runs, two doubles, one triple, two home runs, 10 RBI, four walks with a .364 OBP and a .435 SLG…In 24 games (101 plate appearances) following the All-Star break, McNeil has struck out seven times…He is batting .346 (120-347) in 96 games against NL East foes since the start of 2022…He is hitting .361 (30-83) against the Braves in that span.

FOR PETE’S SAKE: Pete Alonso smashed his 35th home run of the season on Wednesday night…He has homered in three consecutive games, hitting four home runs in that span…Alonso became the first Met to record four seasons with 35 or more home runs…He is third in the majors and second in the Senior Circuit with 35 home runs…He is third in the majors and second in the NL with 87 RBI.

HEY NINETEEN: Alonso is hitting .333 (24-72) with 14 extra-base hits, 25 RBI, 13 runs and a 1.187 OPS in his last 19 games…He was hitting .132 (12- 91) with seven extra-base hits and a .549 OPS over his previous 25 games (since his return from the IL on June 18-19).

RANK PLAYER HR

  1. Darryl Strawberry 252
  2. David Wright 242
  3. Mike Piazza 220
  4. Howard Johnson 192
  5. Pete Alonso 181

RANK PLAYER RBI

  1. Edgardo Alfonzo 538
    T8. Cleon Jones 521
    T8. Jose Reyes 521
  2. Keith Hernandez 468
  3. Pete Alonso 467
    METS CAREER LEADERS

I DECLARE AN fWAR: Francisco Lindor ranks ninth in the majors with a 4.4 fWAR…That is fifth-best in the National League…Since he joined the Mets in 2021, Lindor ranks fifth in the major leagues with a 15.4 fWAR.

SEVENTH HEAVEN: Francisco Lindor owns a seven-game hitting streak, batting .440 (11-25) with six runs, two doubles, one home run, four RBI, three walks with a .500 OBP and a .640 SLG in that span…He has safely hit in 11 of his last 12 games, batting .409 (18-44) with 11 runs, three doubles, three home runs, seven RBI, six walks, with a .490 OBP, a .682 SLG and a 1.172 OPS.

LINSANITY: Over his last 44 games, Lindor is batting .304 (40-161) with 34 runs, eight doubles, two triples, 10 home runs, 25 RBI, 25 walks, 12 steals with a .400 OBP, a .565 SLG and a .965 OPS…Lindor has stolen 18 bases in 112 games this season, exceeding his total from 2022 (16 steals in 161 games)…His career-best is 25 steals 158 games in 2018.

IN THE CITI: The Mets are in a stretch where 19 of 25 games are at home…New York is 2-1 in that span…The Mets are 28-24 at home this season…The team has posted a 3.73 ERA in Citi Field…That is the fourth-lowest mark in the National League…This compares to a 4.93 mark on the road…The team’s 52 games at home are the fewest in the majors.

HERE’S THE CATCH: Francisco Alvarez has hit 21 home runs this season… He joins Pete Alonso (53, 2019) and Darryl Strawberry (26, 1983) as the only Mets rookies to have 20 or more home runs in a season…Alvarez leads all major league catchers with 19 home runs playing that position and is second behind Arizona’s Corbin Carroll for the rookie lead in homers.

PLAYER HOME RUNS YEAR
Johnny Bench 26 1969
Francisco Alvarez 21 2023
Darrell Porter 16 1973
Johnny Bench 15 1968
Research courtesy of Sarah Langs
MOST HR IN AGE-21 SEASON OR YOUNGER, AL/NL CATCHERS:

IF YOU START ME UP: The Mets are 34-9 when the starting pitcher throws at least 6.0 innings…New York has gone 14-1 when its starter pitches 7.0+ innings and are a perfect 5-0 when the starter completes 8.0 innings.

STEAL MY SUNSHINE: New York has recorded 82 steals in 91 attempts… The team’s 90.1 percent success rate is the best in the majors…The Mets had a franchise-record run of 35 consecutive stolen bases without being caught from May 14-June 29…Overall, New York has been successful in 55 of their last 59 stolen base attempts.

JUST PEACHY: The Mets and Braves will play their second doubleheader against each other this season…The two teams split a twinbill on May 1, with the Mets losing game one, 9-8, and won, 5-3 in the nightcap…The two teams played two doubleheaders last year, on May 3 in New York and again on August 6 in New York…The Mets swept both twinbills… Prior to that, the Mets and Braves had split each of their previous three doubleheaders…The Mets have not been swept by the Braves in a doubleheader since they dropped both games on September 8, 2011 in New York.

DOUBLE DARE: The Mets are set to play their fourth doubleheader of the season tomorrow…The team split a twin-bill on May 1 vs. Atlanta, were swept by the Tigers in Detroit on May 3 and swept a twin-bill against the Guardians in New York on May 21…The Mets have played 27 double dips since 2021, more than any other team in the majors…The Mets have earned at least a split in 26 of those 27 twin-bills over the last two years… New York has swept eight of their last 14 doubleheaders, including one this year and five DH sweeps last season.

STARTING PITCHER – TYLOR MEGILL RHP #38
2023 STATS: 6-5, 5.45 ERA

BACK IN THE BIG LEAGUES: On August 5 at Baltimore, Megill made his first outing in the majors since June 21 at Houston…The right-hander suffered the loss after allowing five runs over 4.2 innings on nine hits, zero walks and three strikeouts…Threw 102 pitches, one shy of his season-high.

BRINING THE HEAT AGAINST HOTLANTA: Tonight, Megill will make his eighth career appearance, seventh start against the Braves, his most against any single one opponent in his career…For his career against Atlanta, Megill is 1-1 with a 4.02 ERA (14 ER/31.1 IP), a 10.63 SO/9 rate and a 1.15 WHIP…Megill’s last outing against the Braves came on May 1 at Citi Field in the second game of a doubleheader…The righty allowed three runs over 5.2 innings on four hits, three walks and four strikeouts…Megill started that outing with 5.0 shutout innings before surrendering a bases-clearing double in the sixth.

NO PLACE LIKE NEW YORK: This season, Megill is 4-1 with a 2.79 ERA (12 ER/38.2 IP) in seven home starts this season…In nine road starts this season, Megill is 2-4
with an 8.20 ERA (34 ER/37.1 IP)…In 23 career home games (21 starts), Megill is 8-4 with a 3.95 ERA (48 ER/109.1 IP) and in 26 career road games (22 starts), Megill is 6-9 with a 6.08 ERA (70 ER/103.2 IP).