First Pitch: 1:40 PM ET
Venue: loanDepot Park, Miami, Florida
Surface: Artificial turf
Series: Game 3 of 3 (Series tied 1–1)
Weather Report (Roof Impact)
loanDepot Park features a retractable roof, and early forecasts suggest:
- Outside Temperature: 84–87°F
- Humidity: 70–75%
- Wind: 10–13 mph from the east
- Roof Expectation: Likely closed due to heat and humidity
- Impact:
- Closed roof → pitcher‑friendly, reduces carry to deep left-center.
- Nationals’ right-handed power slightly muted.
- Run environment shifts toward unders unless bullpens implode.
Injury Report
Washington Nationals
- OF Lane Thomas — OUT (wrist fracture)
- SP Josiah Gray — OUT (forearm strain)
- RP Hunter Harvey — OUT (lat tightness)
- 1B Joey Meneses — Day-to-day (back stiffness)
- RP Kyle Finnegan — Healthy (available for late innings)
Miami Marlins
- SP Eury Pérez — OUT (Tommy John recovery)
- 2B Xavier Edwards — OUT (ankle sprain)
- OF Jazz Chisholm Jr. — Day-to-day (knee soreness; expected to play)
- RP A.J. Puk — OUT (shoulder)
- C Nick Fortes — Healthy
Team Records & Recent Form
Washington Nationals (19–21)
- Last 10: 5–5
- Road Record: 9–11
- Run Differential: –12
- Trend: Competitive but inconsistent; pitching stabilizing.
- Strength: Contact hitting, improved bullpen depth.
- Weakness: Missing Lane Thomas’ power; lineup lacks thump.
Miami Marlins (18–22)
- Last 10: 4–6
- Home Record: 10–12
- Run Differential: –25
- Trend: Offense streaky; pitching staff overworked.
- Strength: Speed and athleticism; Chisholm and Burger can change games.
- Weakness: Rotation depth; bullpen ERA bottom third of MLB.
Probable Starting Pitchers
Washington — RHP Jake Irvin (2–3, 3.77 ERA)
- 2026 Road ERA: 3.62
- WHIP: 1.21
- K/BB: Solid command profile
- Scouting Notes:
- Heavy sinker generates ground balls.
- Marlins struggle vs. sinker/curveball combos.
- Needs to avoid middle-middle fastballs to Burger and Chisholm.
Miami — LHP Trevor Rogers (1–4, 4.89 ERA)
- 2026 Home ERA: 4.55
- WHIP: 1.39
- K/9: 8.1
- Scouting Notes:
- When his changeup is sharp, he’s tough on righties.
- Nationals’ lineup is right-handed heavy, but not overly powerful.
- Command lapses lead to big innings.
Key Player Matchups
1. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (MIA) vs. Jake Irvin
- Chisholm’s bat speed handles velocity well.
- Irvin must keep the ball down to avoid extra-base damage.
2. CJ Abrams (WSH) vs. Trevor Rogers
- Abrams’ speed pressures Rogers, who struggles controlling the running game.
- Abrams’ ability to reach base is a major swing factor.
3. Jake Burger (MIA) vs. Nationals Bullpen
- Burger’s power plays well even with roof closed.
- Nationals’ late-inning righties must avoid mistake sliders.
4. Keibert Ruiz (WSH) vs. Rogers
- Ruiz handles lefties well; potential RBI opportunities if Meneses returns.
Series History
- 2025–2026 Combined: Nationals lead 7–5
- At loanDepot Park: Nationals have won 4 of last 6
- Trend: Washington consistently plays well in Miami, often winning close, low-scoring games.
Betting Trends
Washington Nationals
- 4–1 last five vs. NL East
- Unders hit in 6 of last 8
- Nationals are 12–4 when scoring 4+ runs
Miami Marlins
- 3–6 last nine home games
- Overs hit in 5 of last 7 Marlins games
- Miami is 5–13 when trailing after 5 innings
Head-to-Head
- Unders are 7–3 in last 10 meetings
- Road team is 6–4 in last 10
- Nationals have covered run line in 5 of last 7
Game Odds
Washington Nationals 8.5
Miami Marlins – 136
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Saturday, May 9, 2026
