First Pitch: 6:10 PM ET
Probable Pitchers:
- TOR — Carson Fluharty (LHP)
- DET — Casey Mize (RHP)
VENUE — COMERICA PARK
- Location: Downtown Detroit, Michigan
- Dimensions: 345 LF, 370 LCF, 420 CF, 365 RCF, 330 RF
- Park Factors: Suppresses HRs to center; boosts doubles and triples
- Surface: Natural grass
- Weather impact: Wind blowing out to right can help LHB power
WEATHER FORECAST (DETROIT, MI)
- Temperature: 66–69°F at first pitch
- Sky: Partly cloudy
- Humidity: 60%
- Wind: 9–12 mph blowing out to right‑center
- Chance of Rain: 10%
- Expected Conditions: Mildly hitter‑friendly, especially for left‑handed pull hitters
INJURY REPORT
TORONTO BLUE JAYS
- Bo Bichette — OUT (wrist fracture)
- George Springer — Day‑to‑day (back tightness)
- Kevin Gausman — OUT (shoulder inflammation)
- Alejandro Kirk — Probable (hand contusion)
- Erik Swanson — OUT (lat strain)
DETROIT TIGERS
- Riley Greene — Probable (rest day Friday)
- Kerry Carpenter — OUT (ankle sprain)
- Tarik Skubal — OUT (forearm tightness)
- Javier Báez — Day‑to‑day (groin soreness)
- Alex Faedo — OUT (elbow)
TEAM RECORDS & RECENT FORM
TORONTO BLUE JAYS (19–25)
- Last 10 games: 3–7
- Road record: 8–14
- Run differential: –28
- Strengths: LH pitching depth, top‑end bullpen arms
- Weaknesses: Missing Bichette, inconsistent offense, poor RISP hitting
DETROIT TIGERS (20–25)
- Last 10 games: 5–5
- Home record: 10–11
- Run differential: –9
- Strengths: Young lineup speed, improving plate discipline
- Weaknesses: Injuries to key bats, bullpen volatility
STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN
TOR — CARSON FLUHARTY (LHP)
2026 Season Stats
- Record: 2–3
- ERA: 4.11
- WHIP: 1.31
- K/BB: 39/12
- Last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 9 ER, 14 K, 5 BB
Pitch Mix
- Four‑seam (94)
- Slider (85)
- Changeup (83)
- Curveball (77)
Matchup Notes
- Tigers struggle vs left‑handed breaking balls
- Comerica’s deep center helps Fluharty’s fly‑ball tendencies
- Key risk: Detroit’s RH bats (Torkelson, Meadows) feast on elevated fastballs
DET — CASEY MIZE (RHP)
2026 Season Stats
- Record: 3–4
- ERA: 3.68
- WHIP: 1.18
- K/BB: 42/11
- Last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 7 ER, 16 K
Pitch Mix
- Sinker (95)
- Splitter (87) — elite pitch
- Slider (86)
- Four‑seam (96)
Matchup Notes
- Toronto’s lineup is right‑hand heavy, which Mize handles well
- His splitter neutralizes power hitters
- Jays’ offense has been cold without Bichette
- Key risk: Mize can be homer‑prone if his sinker leaks arm‑side
KEY PLAYER MATCHUPS
1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. vs Casey Mize
- Vlad Jr. hits sinkers well
- Mize’s splitter is the equalizer
- High‑leverage matchup all night
2. Riley Greene vs Carson Fluharty
- Greene crushes LHP (.298 career vs lefties)
- Fluharty must keep the slider down
- Greene is Detroit’s most dangerous bat
3. Spencer Torkelson vs Fluharty’s fastball
- Torkelson punishes elevated heaters
- If Fluharty misses up, Torkelson can change the game
4. Justin Turner vs Detroit’s bullpen
- Turner’s veteran approach plays well late
- Detroit’s middle relief is shaky
SERIES HISTORY
- 2025 season series: Blue Jays 4 – Tigers 2
- At Comerica Park: Tigers have won 4 of last 6
- Last 10 meetings: Toronto 6 – Detroit 4
- Unders hit in 7 of last 10 matchups
- Games tend to be pitcher‑friendly at Comerica
BETTING TRENDS
TORONTO
- 2–6 in last 8 road games
- 1–4 in Fluharty’s last 5 starts
- Under is 5–2 in last 7 games
DETROIT
- 4–2 in last 6 home games
- 3–1 in Mize’s last 4 starts
- Over is 4–1 in last 5 home games
HEAD‑TO‑HEAD
- Toronto 6–4 last 10
- Under 7–3 last 10
- Home team 5–2 last 7
Game Odds
Toronto Blue Jays 8.5
Detroit Tigers – 122
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Friday, May 15, 2026
