First Pitch: 6:10 PM ET
Probable Pitchers:
- CIN — Chris Paddack (RHP)
- CLE — Joey Cantillo (LHP)
VENUE — PROGRESSIVE FIELD
- Location: Downtown Cleveland, Ohio
- Dimensions: 325 LF, 370 LCF, 410 CF, 375 RCF, 325 RF
- Park Factors: Slightly hitter‑friendly for LHB; neutral for RHB
- Surface: Natural grass
- Weather impact: Wind blowing out to right can boost left‑handed power
WEATHER FORECAST (CLEVELAND, OH)
- Temperature: 68–71°F at first pitch
- Sky: Partly cloudy
- Humidity: 57%
- Wind: 8–12 mph blowing out to right field
- Chance of Rain: <10%
- Expected Conditions: Mildly hitter‑friendly, especially for LHB with lift
INJURY REPORT
CINCINNATI REDS
- Elly De La Cruz — Probable (hamstring tightness)
- Matt McLain — OUT (shoulder surgery)
- TJ Friedl — OUT (wrist fracture)
- Nick Lodolo — Day‑to‑day (back stiffness)
- Emilio Pagán — OUT (forearm strain)
CLEVELAND GUARDIANS
- José Ramírez — Probable (rest day Friday)
- Josh Naylor — Day‑to‑day (ankle soreness)
- Shane Bieber — OUT (Tommy John recovery)
- Triston McKenzie — OUT (shoulder)
- James Karinchak — OUT (lat strain)
TEAM RECORDS & RECENT FORM
CINCINNATI REDS (24–21)
- Last 10 games: 6–4
- Road record: 11–12
- Run differential: +16
- Strengths: Athletic lineup, elite team speed, improving rotation
- Weaknesses: Bullpen inconsistency, streaky offense
CLEVELAND GUARDIANS (24–22)
- Last 10 games: 5–5
- Home record: 13–10
- Run differential: +8
- Strengths: Contact‑heavy lineup, strong bullpen depth
- Weaknesses: Injuries to rotation, limited power without Naylor at 100%
STARTING PITCHER BREAKDOWN
CIN — CHRIS PADDACK (RHP)
2026 Season Stats
- Record: 3–3
- ERA: 4.18
- WHIP: 1.26
- K/BB: 43/11
- Last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 9 ER, 15 K, 3 BB
Pitch Mix
- Four‑seam (95)
- Changeup (86) — signature pitch
- Slider (84)
- Curveball (77)
Matchup Notes
- Guardians struggle vs high‑quality changeups
- Paddack’s fastball‑change combo plays well vs contact‑oriented lineups
- Key risk: Cleveland’s lefties (Kwan, Naylor) can punish elevated heaters
CLE — JOEY CANTILLO (LHP)
2026 Season Stats
- Record: 2–2
- ERA: 3.94
- WHIP: 1.28
- K/BB: 38/17
- Last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 8 ER, 14 K
Pitch Mix
- Four‑seam (93)
- Changeup (83)
- Slider (86)
- Curveball (78)
Matchup Notes
- Reds’ lineup is right‑hand heavy, which Cantillo struggles with
- His command can be inconsistent
- Cincinnati’s aggressive hitters (Steer, India, De La Cruz) match up well
- Key risk: Cantillo’s walk rate — Reds feast on free passes
KEY PLAYER MATCHUPS
1. Elly De La Cruz vs Joey Cantillo
- De La Cruz destroys LHP (.310 AVG, .580 SLG career vs lefties)
- Cantillo must keep the ball down
- Huge matchup swing
2. José Ramírez vs Chris Paddack
- Ramírez hits changeups well
- Paddack must avoid middle‑middle mistakes
- Ramírez is Cleveland’s most dangerous bat
3. Spencer Steer vs Cantillo’s fastball
- Steer excels vs low‑velo LHP
- Could be a multi‑hit night
4. Steven Kwan vs Paddack’s changeup
- Kwan’s elite contact skills challenge Paddack’s best pitch
- If Kwan reaches, Cleveland’s offense flows
SERIES HISTORY
- 2025 season series: Split 2–2
- At Progressive Field: Guardians have won 4 of last 6
- Last 10 meetings: Guardians 6 – Reds 4
- Unders hit in 7 of last 10 matchups
- Games tend to be tight, low‑scoring, bullpen‑driven
BETTING TRENDS
CINCINNATI
- 5–2 in last 7 games
- 4–1 in Paddack’s last 5 starts
- Under is 6–3 in last 9 road games
CLEVELAND
- 4–2 in last 6 home games
- 3–1 in Cantillo’s last 4 starts
- Under is 5–2 in last 7 games
HEAD‑TO‑HEAD
- Guardians 6–4 last 10
- Under 7–3 last 10
- Home team 5–2 last 7
Game Odds
Cincinnati Reds 8.5
Cleveland Guardians – 171
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Friday, May 15, 2026
