Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
First pitch: 6:40 PM MST
Takeaway: A tight NL matchup between two Wild Card contenders. St. Louis enters with slightly better form and a deeper bullpen, while Arizona counters with Merrill Kelly, one of the most reliable right‑handed starters in the league. Chase Field’s hitter‑friendly conditions and Arizona’s home‑field advantage make this a compelling, evenly matched game with playoff implications.
Venue & Game Details
Chase Field — Phoenix, Arizona
Opened: 1998
Surface: Grass
Dimensions:
LF: 330 ft
LC: 374 ft
CF: 407 ft
RC: 374 ft
RF: 334 ft
Park Factors:
Boosts HRs, especially to LF
Roof often closed due to heat
When roof open → ball carries extremely well
Weather Forecast
(Roof almost certainly closed)
Temperature: 108–112°F
Humidity: ~20%
Wind: 6–10 mph SW (minimal effect indoors)
Rain: 0%
Impact:
With roof closed → neutral hitting environment
Without roof → major boost to RH power
Pitchers benefit from controlled indoor conditions
Injury Report
St. Louis Cardinals
Nolan Arenado — Day‑to‑day (back stiffness)
Willson Contreras — OUT (forearm)
Sonny Gray — OUT (elbow)
Lars Nootbaar — OUT (oblique)
Giovanny Gallegos — OUT (shoulder)
Arizona Diamondbacks
Corbin Carroll — Day‑to‑day (shoulder)
Zac Gallen — OUT (forearm)
Eduardo Rodriguez — OUT (lat)
Ketel Marte — Day‑to‑day (ankle)
Paul Sewald — OUT (elbow)
Team Form & Records
St. Louis Cardinals (50–45)
Last 10: 6–4
Run differential: +14
Strengths: bullpen depth, RH power, improved rotation
Weaknesses: injuries to core hitters, inconsistent OBP
Recent trend: pitching strong; offense streaky but timely
Arizona Diamondbacks (49–47)
Last 10: 5–5
Run differential: +9
Strengths: athletic lineup, strong home performance, speed
Weaknesses: rotation injuries, bullpen instability
Recent trend: offense warming up; pitching inconsistent
Pitching Matchup — Cardinals TBD vs. Merrill Kelly
St. Louis Starter — TBD (likely swingman or spot starter)
(Team has rotated depth arms due to injuries; preview focuses on team tendencies)
Profile:
Cardinals’ depth starters rely on command
Strong bullpen support behind them
Likely 4–5 inning workload
Matchup Notes:
Arizona’s RH bats (Walker, Moreno) match well
Cardinals’ bullpen will be heavily involved
Merrill Kelly — Diamondbacks (RHP)
2026 Stats:
ERA: 3.43
WHIP: 1.16
K/9: 9.1
HR/9: 1.0
Profile:
Four‑seam / changeup / cutter
Elite command
Strong home splits
Matchup Notes:
Cardinals’ RH bats (Goldschmidt, Winn) are key
Kelly dominates vs. low‑OBP teams
Projected strikeouts: 6–8
Key Player Matchups
Paul Goldschmidt vs. Merrill Kelly
Goldschmidt hitting .285 vs. RHP in 2026
Kelly’s changeup must stay down
Edge: Goldschmidt
Christian Walker vs. Cardinals pitching
Walker crushes command‑first RHP
Edge: Walker
Masyn Winn vs. Merrill Kelly
Winn’s speed vs. Kelly’s control
Edge: Kelly
Gabriel Moreno vs. Cardinals bullpen
Moreno excels in late‑inning contact situations
Edge: Moreno
Series History
Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks all‑time: Cardinals lead 118–92
Last meeting (2025): Cardinals won series 2–1
At Chase Field: Cardinals lead 60–45
Most games trend mid‑scoring, HR‑driven
Betting Trends
St. Louis
Cardinals are 23–25 on the road
Under is 6–3 in last 9 Cardinals games
Cardinals strong vs. mid‑tier RHP
Arizona
Diamondbacks are 27–22 at home
Kelly starts: D‑backs 10–6
Over is 7–4 in last 11 Arizona home games
D‑backs strong vs. command‑first pitching
Totals Trends
Chase Field boosts HRs
Roof likely closed → neutralizes wind
Model leans Over 8.5
Game Odds
St. Louis Cardinals – 110
Arizona Diamondbacks 9
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Thursday, July 16, 2026
