Wrigley Field — Chicago, IL
First Pitch: 1:20 PM CDT
Venue & Conditions
Ballpark: Wrigley Field
Surface: Natural grass
Dimensions: 355 LF / 400 CF / 353 RF
Weather Forecast:
Temperature: 78–82°F
Conditions: Partly cloudy, mild summer afternoon
Wind: Blowing out to LF at 10–14 mph
Rain Chance: ~10%
Impact: Classic Wrigley wind‑out conditions — boosts HR potential, especially for right‑handed pull hitters. Pitchers must keep the ball down.
Team Overview
St. Louis Cardinals (47–39)
Last 10 Games: 6–4
Road Record: 22–21
Run Differential: +27
Recent Form: Rotation stabilizing; offense improving; bullpen trending upward.
Chicago Cubs (49–40)
Last 10 Games: 5–5
Home Record: 26–18
Run Differential: +33
Recent Form: Offense inconsistent but dangerous at home; pitching strong in first five innings.
Starting Pitchers
St. Louis — LHP Matthew Liberatore
2026 Stats:
ERA: 3.74
WHIP: 1.26
K/9: 8.1
BB/9: 2.9
Recent Starts: 6 IP, 2 ER; 5.2 IP, 3 ER; 7 IP, 1 ER
Profile:
Curveball‑heavy lefty
Generates soft contact
Vulnerable to right‑handed power when fastball command slips
Matchup Outlook:
Cubs’ right‑handed bats (Suzuki, Morel, Hoerner) pose challenges
Wind blowing out increases HR risk if Liberatore elevates pitches
Chicago — RHP Javier Assad
2026 Stats:
ERA: 3.29
WHIP: 1.18
K/9: 8.4
BB/9: 2.6
Recent Starts: 6 IP, 1 ER; 7 IP, 2 ER; 5 IP, 3 ER
Profile:
Cutter/slider specialist
Excellent command
Keeps ball on the ground
Matchup Outlook:
Cardinals’ lefties (Gorman, Donovan) must adjust to Assad’s cutter
Assad’s ground‑ball tendencies help neutralize wind‑out conditions
Injury Report
St. Louis
OUT:
RP Giovanny Gallegos — shoulder strain
QUESTIONABLE:
OF Lars Nootbaar — minor back tightness
ACTIVE:
Paul Goldschmidt fully healthy
Nolan Arenado available after minor wrist soreness
Chicago
OUT:
RP Julian Merryweather — elbow inflammation
QUESTIONABLE:
OF Ian Happ — hamstring tightness
ACTIVE:
Seiya Suzuki fully healthy
Cody Bellinger available
Key Player Matchups
1. Paul Goldschmidt (STL) vs. Javier Assad (CHC)
Goldschmidt handles cutters well
Assad must avoid middle‑in locations
2. Seiya Suzuki (CHC) vs. Matthew Liberatore (STL)
Suzuki excels vs. left‑handed breaking balls
Wind blowing out enhances his HR potential
3. Nolan Gorman (STL) vs. Cubs Bullpen
Gorman’s power plays well late in games
Cubs’ bullpen allows hard contact vs. left‑handed hitters
4. Cody Bellinger (CHC) vs. Liberatore
Bellinger’s ability to elevate pitches is dangerous in wind‑out conditions
Liberatore must keep fastball low
Series History
2026 Season Series: Cubs lead 2–1
Last 10 Meetings: Cubs 6–4
Trend: Cubs have been strong at home vs. St. Louis; Cardinals struggle in wind‑out games at Wrigley.
Recent Team Form
Cardinals
Offense averaging 4.6 runs over last 10
Rotation ERA last week: 3.48
Bullpen ERA: 3.71
Cubs
Offense averaging 4.4 runs over last 10
Rotation ERA last week: 3.29
Bullpen ERA: 3.88
Betting Trends
Cardinals are 7–3 in Liberatore’s last 10 starts
Cubs are 8–4 in their last 12 home games
Over has hit in 6 of last 8 Wrigley wind‑out games
Cubs are 11–5 in Assad’s last 16 starts
First‑Five Under has hit in 4 of Liberatore’s last 6 starts
Game Odds
St. Louis Cardinals 8
Chicago Cubs – 145
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Saturday, July 4, 2026
