Scheduled First Pitch: 7:10 PM PT
Venue Type: Slightly pitcher‑friendly at night; marine air suppresses HRs to CF/RCF, neutral to LF.
WEATHER FORECAST — LOS ANGELES, CA
Temperature: 76°F at first pitch
Humidity: 58%
Wind: 9 mph blowing out to left‑center
Precipitation: 0%
Conditions: Warm, dry; mild boost for opposite‑field power hitters
Dodger Stadium’s evening marine layer typically suppresses HRs, but wind direction adds slight lift to balls hit to LCF.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Seattle — RHP Luis Castillo
2026 Season: 9–7, 3.41 ERA, 1.12 WHIP
Arsenal: four‑seam, sinker, slider, changeup
Dodgers struggle vs. elite changeups (team OPS .621 vs CH)
Road ERA: 3.58
Strength: strikeouts, weak contact
Vulnerability: HRs vs. LHB — Dodgers have multiple left‑side power bats
Los Angeles — LHP Justin Wrobleski
2026 Season: 6–3, 3.66 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Arsenal: four‑seam, sweeper, changeup
Mariners struggle vs. sweepers (team SLG .392 vs sweepers)
Home ERA: 3.41
Strength: command, swing‑and‑miss sweeper
Vulnerability: occasional HRs vs. RHB — Seattle’s lineup is RH‑heavy
CURRENT TEAM FORM
Seattle Mariners — Last 10 Games: 4–6
Runs per game: 4.1
Bullpen ERA: 4.22
Road record: 23–30
Strength: strong rotation, improved OBP
Weakness: low slugging, inconsistent run production
Los Angeles Dodgers — Last 10 Games: 7–3
Runs per game: 5.4
Bullpen ERA: 3.38
Home record: 35–18
Strength: elite lineup depth, strong pitching
Weakness: occasional struggles vs. high‑velocity pitching
INJURY REPORT
Seattle Mariners
Julio Rodríguez — Active
Cal Raleigh — Day‑to‑Day (thumb)
Ty France — Active
George Kirby — IL (shoulder)
Los Angeles Dodgers
Mookie Betts — Active
Freddie Freeman — Active
Will Smith — Day‑to‑Day (back)
Walker Buehler — IL (elbow)
KEY PLAYER MATCHUPS
Luis Castillo vs. Freddie Freeman
Freeman vs. changeups: .311 AVG
Castillo’s changeup is elite Edge: Freeman
Luis Castillo vs. Mookie Betts
Betts vs. sliders: .244 AVG
Castillo’s slider is his strikeout pitch Edge: Castillo
Justin Wrobleski vs. Julio Rodríguez
Rodríguez vs. sweepers: .221 AVG
Wrobleski’s sweeper is his best pitch Edge: Wrobleski
Justin Wrobleski vs. Mitch Haniger
Haniger vs. high fastballs: .309 AVG
Wrobleski’s fastball plays up in the zone Edge: Even
SERIES HISTORY
2026 Season Series: First meeting
Last 20 meetings: Dodgers 13–7
At Dodger Stadium (last 3 seasons): Dodgers 8–4
Dodgers have won 6 of last 8 vs. Mariners.
BETTING TRENDS
Seattle
Mariners are 3–7 in their last 10 road games
Under is 6–4 in their last 10 overall
Seattle is 5–5 in Castillo’s last 10 starts
Los Angeles
Dodgers are 8–2 in their last 10 home games
Under is 7–3 in their last 10 overall
Los Angeles is 7–3 in Wrobleski’s last 10 starts
Head‑to‑Head
Under has hit in 6 of last 9 meetings
Dodgers have scored 4+ runs in 5 straight vs. Mariners
Mariners have not won a series in Los Angeles since 2020
ADVANCED ANALYTICS SNAPSHOT
Pitching WAR (2026)
Castillo: 2.8 WAR
Wrobleski: 1.9 WAR
Team OPS (Last 30 Days)
Seattle: .703
Los Angeles: .748
Bullpen ERA (Last 15 Days)
Seattle: 4.31
Los Angeles: 3.41
Run Expectancy Model
Projected scoring:
Seattle: 3.8–4.6 runs
Los Angeles: 4.9–5.7 runs
Game Odds
Seattle Mariners 9.5
Los Angeles Dodgers – 183
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Monday, July 27, 2026
