Scheduled First Pitch: 7:15 PM CT
Venue Type: Slightly pitcher‑friendly; suppresses HRs to CF/RCF, plays neutral to LF.
WEATHER FORECAST — ST. LOUIS, MO
Temperature: 84°F at first pitch
Humidity: 64%
Wind: 7 mph blowing out to left field
Precipitation: 10% chance
Conditions: Warm, dry; mild HR boost for right‑handed pull hitters
Busch Stadium typically plays neutral, but warm air and LF wind add slight offensive upside.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Chicago — RHP Colin Rea
2026 Season: 8–6, 3.88 ERA, 1.24 WHIP
Arsenal: sinker, cutter, curveball, changeup
Cardinals struggle vs. cutters (team OPS .619 vs cutters)
Road ERA: 4.02
Strength: induces weak contact, avoids big innings
Vulnerability: HRs vs. LHB — Cards have several left‑side threats
St. Louis — RHP Michael McGreevy
2026 Season: 5–7, 4.44 ERA, 1.31 WHIP
Arsenal: sinker, slider, curveball
Cubs hit sliders well (team SLG .471 vs sliders)
Home ERA: 4.21
Strength: ground‑ball tendencies
Vulnerability: struggles vs. RHB power; Cubs are RH‑heavy
CURRENT TEAM FORM
Chicago Cubs — Last 10 Games: 7–3
Runs per game: 5.0
Bullpen ERA: 3.48
Road record: 28–25
Strength: elite rotation depth, strong OBP
Weakness: streaky power production
St. Louis Cardinals — Last 10 Games: 5–5
Runs per game: 4.4
Bullpen ERA: 4.12
Home record: 27–26
Strength: improved plate discipline
Weakness: inconsistent run production
INJURY REPORT
Chicago Cubs
Seiya Suzuki — Active
Cody Bellinger — Day‑to‑Day (shoulder)
Dansby Swanson — Active
Justin Steele — IL (forearm)
St. Louis Cardinals
Paul Goldschmidt — Active
Nolan Arenado — Day‑to‑Day (back)
Willson Contreras — Active
Sonny Gray — IL (elbow)
KEY PLAYER MATCHUPS
Colin Rea vs. Paul Goldschmidt
Goldschmidt vs. sinkers: .311 AVG
Rea relies heavily on sinker Edge: Goldschmidt
Colin Rea vs. Nolan Gorman
Gorman vs. cutters: .244 AVG
Rea’s cutter is his most effective pitch Edge: Rea
Michael McGreevy vs. Cody Bellinger
Bellinger vs. sliders: .298 AVG, .511 SLG
McGreevy’s slider is his strikeout pitch Edge: Even — depends on Bellinger’s health
Michael McGreevy vs. Dansby Swanson
Swanson vs. sinkers: .309 AVG
McGreevy’s sinker usage is high Edge: Swanson
SERIES HISTORY
2026 Season Series: Cubs lead 4–3
Last 20 meetings: Chicago 11–9
At Busch Stadium (last 3 seasons): St. Louis 8–7
Games often trend low‑scoring due to park factors.
BETTING TRENDS
Chicago
Cubs are 8–2 in their last 10 vs. NL Central
Under is 6–4 in their last 10 road games
Chicago is 6–2 in Rea’s last 8 starts
St. Louis
Cardinals are 5–5 in their last 10 home games
Over is 6–4 in their last 10 overall
St. Louis is 4–6 in McGreevy’s last 10 starts
Head‑to‑Head
Under has hit in 7 of last 10 meetings
Cubs have scored 4+ runs in 5 straight vs. Cardinals
Cardinals have not won a home series vs. Chicago since 2023
ADVANCED ANALYTICS SNAPSHOT
Pitching WAR (2026)
Rea: 1.9 WAR
McGreevy: 1.1 WAR
Team OPS (Last 30 Days)
Chicago: .733
St. Louis: .709
Bullpen ERA (Last 15 Days)
Chicago: 3.41
St. Louis: 4.38
Run Expectancy Model
Projected scoring:
Chicago: 4.5–5.3 runs
St. Louis: 3.9–4.7 runs
Game Odds
Chicago Cubs – 111
St. Louis Cardinals 9
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Monday, July 27, 2026
