First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. CT / 5:10 p.m. PT
Venue: Minute Maid Park — Houston, Texas
Surface: Natural grass with retractable roof
Capacity: 41,168
Roof: Likely closed due to warm, humid conditions
Weather Forecast (Houston, TX)
Minute Maid Park’s retractable roof minimizes weather impact.
- Temperature: 84–87°F outside
- Humidity: ~70%
- Wind: 8–12 mph outside (irrelevant if roof closed)
- Rain: 10%
- Roof Expectation: Closed, creating a neutral-to-slightly hitter-friendly indoor environment
Injury Report
Seattle Mariners
- Julio Rodríguez — Healthy
- Cal Raleigh — Day-to-day (hand soreness)
- Ty France — Healthy
- George Kirby — Healthy (expected to start)
- Gregory Santos — OUT (lat strain)
Houston Astros
- Yordan Álvarez — Healthy
- Kyle Tucker — Probable (foot bruise)
- José Altuve — OUT (hamstring strain)
- Justin Verlander — OUT (shoulder fatigue)
- Hunter Brown — Healthy (expected to start)
Team Records & Recent Form
Seattle Mariners (20–22)
- Last 10: 5–5
- Road Record: 9–12
- Run Differential: -8
- Recent Form:
- Offense inconsistent but improving
- Rotation strong; bullpen shaky without Santos
- Averaging 4.2 runs over last 10
Houston Astros (16–26)
- Last 10: 3–7
- Home Record: 8–13
- Run Differential: -31
- Recent Form:
- Offense struggling without Altuve
- Pitching staff allowing 5.1 runs per game over last 10
- Bullpen remains volatile
Probable Starting Pitchers
Seattle — RHP George Kirby (3–3, 3.61 ERA)
- WHIP: 1.14
- K/BB: 46/6
- Strengths:
- Elite command, low walk rate
- Excellent vs RHB
- Weaknesses:
- Occasional HR issues when fastball elevates
- Matchup Outlook:
- Astros’ LH bats (Álvarez, Tucker) are the key threats
- Indoor environment slightly boosts power
Houston — RHP Hunter Brown (2–4, 5.22 ERA)
- WHIP: 1.46
- K/BB: 41/18
- Strengths:
- Power fastball/curveball combo
- Weaknesses:
- Command issues, high walk rate
- Struggles vs disciplined lineups
- Matchup Outlook:
- Mariners’ patient hitters (Crawford, France, Rodríguez) match up well
- Brown’s volatility is a major concern
Key Player Matchups
Julio Rodríguez (SEA) vs. Hunter Brown
- Rodríguez hitting .305 vs RHP
- Brown allows .278 average to RH hitters
- Advantage: Rodríguez
Yordan Álvarez (HOU) vs. George Kirby
- Álvarez hitting .318 vs high-velo RHP
- Kirby’s command can neutralize him if he stays low
- Advantage: Even
Ty France (SEA) vs. Astros Bullpen
- France hitting .333 in late innings
- Houston bullpen bottom‑five in ERA
- Advantage: France
Kyle Tucker (HOU) vs. Kirby
- Tucker’s LH power plays well indoors
- Kirby’s splitter can neutralize him
- Advantage: Kirby
Series History
- 2025 Season: Mariners won 8 of 13
- Last 10 Meetings: Mariners lead 6–4
- At Minute Maid Park: Astros 11–9 since 2020
- Trend: Games tend to be moderate scoring indoors
Betting Trends
Seattle
- 4–1 in last 5 road games
- Under is 6–3 in last 9 Kirby starts
- Mariners 7–3 in last 10 vs AL West
Houston
- 2–7 in last 9 home games
- Over is 6–3 in last 9 Astros games
- Astros 1–6 in last 7 vs teams above .500
Head-to-Head
- Mariners have won 6 of last 10
- Under is 5–2 in last 7 meetings
Game Odds
Seattle Mariners – 156
Houston Astros 8.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Monday, May 11, 2026
