First Pitch: 6:40 p.m. CT / 4:40 p.m. PT
Venue: American Family Field — Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Surface: Grass (retractable roof environment)
Capacity: 41,900
Weather Forecast (Milwaukee, WI)
Note: American Family Field’s retractable roof reduces weather impact, but conditions influence roof decision.
- Temperature: 58–61°F
- Wind: 8–12 mph blowing in from left
- Humidity: ~62%
- Rain Probability: 20%
- Roof Expectation: Likely closed due to cool temps and light rain risk
- Weather Impact:
- If closed: neutral hitting environment
- If open: wind slightly suppresses RH power
Injury Report
San Diego Padres
- Fernando Tatis Jr. — Probable (minor hip soreness, expected to play)
- Xander Bogaerts — OUT (shoulder surgery, long-term)
- Ha-Seong Kim — Day-to-day (wrist bruise)
- Joe Musgrove — OUT (elbow inflammation)
- Robert Suarez — Healthy (closer available)
Milwaukee Brewers
- Christian Yelich — Day-to-day (back tightness, trending toward playing)
- William Contreras — Healthy
- Jackson Chourio — Probable (quad tightness)
- DL Hall — OUT (forearm strain)
- Wade Miley — OUT (Tommy John recovery)
Team Records & Form
San Diego Padres (24–16)
- Last 10: 7–3
- Road Record: 12–8
- Run Differential: +27
- Recent Form:
- Offense averaging 5.3 runs over last 10
- Bullpen ERA top‑10 in MLB
- Rotation stabilizing despite Musgrove’s absence
Milwaukee Brewers (22–16)
- Last 10: 5–5
- Home Record: 11–7
- Run Differential: +9
- Recent Form:
- Offense inconsistent but dangerous at home
- Bullpen strong late, especially in 8th–9th innings
- Rotation depth tested by injuries
Probable Starting Pitchers
San Diego — RHP Dylan Cease (4–2, 3.21 ERA)
- WHIP: 1.09
- K/BB: 58/14
- Strengths:
- Elite swing‑and‑miss slider
- Dominant vs RH hitters
- Weaknesses:
- Occasional command lapses
- Matchup Outlook:
- Brewers’ lineup has high K-rate vs elite velocity
- Roof closed favors Cease’s breaking ball
Milwaukee — RHP Freddy Peralta (3–2, 3.77 ERA)
- WHIP: 1.18
- K/BB: 52/16
- Strengths:
- High-spin fastball, excellent at home
- Weaknesses:
- Prone to HRs when behind in counts
- Matchup Outlook:
- Padres’ RH bats (Tatis, Machado) match up well
- Peralta’s fastball can be punished if elevated
Key Player Matchups
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) vs. Freddy Peralta
- Tatis hitting .309 vs RHP
- Peralta allows 1.2 HR/9 to RH hitters
- Advantage: Tatis
William Contreras (MIL) vs. Dylan Cease
- Contreras excels vs high-velo fastballs
- Cease’s slider may neutralize him
- Advantage: Even
Manny Machado (SD) vs. Brewers Bullpen
- Machado hitting .333 in late innings
- Brewers bullpen top‑5 in WHIP
- Advantage: Slight Brewers
Jackson Chourio (MIL) vs. Padres Outfield
- Chourio’s speed vs SD’s average defensive range
- Advantage: Chourio
Series History
- 2025 Season: Padres won 4 of 6
- Last 10 Meetings: Padres lead 7–3
- At American Family Field: Brewers lead 12–11 since 2015
- Trend: Games tend to be low-scoring when Cease or Peralta pitches
Betting Trends
San Diego
- 6–1 in last 7 road games
- Under is 8–3 in Cease’s last 11 starts
- Padres 10–4 vs teams above .500
Milwaukee
- 5–1 in last 6 home games
- Under is 7–2 in last 9 Peralta starts at home
- Brewers 4–1 in last 5 vs NL West
Head-to-Head
- Under is 6–2 in last 8 meetings
- Padres have won 4 straight in Milwaukee
Game Odds
San Diego Padres 9
Milwaukee Brewers – 122
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Monday, May 11, 2026
