Venue: Great American Ball Park — Cincinnati, Ohio
Scheduled First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. EDT
Surface: Kentucky bluegrass
Weather Forecast – Great American Ball Park
Temperature: 86°F at first pitch
Wind: 10–13 mph blowing out to right-center
Humidity: 68%
Sky: Partly sunny
Run Environment: Great American Ball Park is already one of MLB’s most hitter-friendly venues. With wind blowing out to right-center, left-handed power and opposite-field right-handed hitters receive a notable boost. Expect elevated HR probability.
Probable Pitchers
Pittsburgh – RHP Brandon Ashcraft
2026 Season: 4.43 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 118.0 IP, 21.6% K, 7.9% BB
Profile:
Heavy sinker/slider pitcher who relies on ground balls.
Vulnerable when sinker command drifts up in the zone — especially dangerous in Cincinnati.
Reds’ lineup features multiple left-handed bats (De La Cruz, Fraley, Benson) who feast on elevated sinkers.
Cincinnati – LHP Andrew Abbott
2026 Season: 3.62 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 124.1 IP, 25.1% K, 8.2% BB
Profile:
Abbott’s four-seam/curveball/changeup mix is effective against right-handed hitters.
Pittsburgh’s lineup is right-handed heavy (Reynolds, Hayes, Cruz, Suwinski), giving Abbott a tactical edge.
Fly-ball tendencies could be punished if he leaves fastballs up, but his curveball is a strong equalizer.
Current Rosters
Pittsburgh Pirates – Key Position Players
1B Rowdy Tellez
2B Nick Gonzales
SS Oneil Cruz
3B Ke’Bryan Hayes
LF Bryan Reynolds
CF Jack Suwinski
RF Henry Davis
DH Edward Olivares
C Yasmani Grandal / Endy Rodríguez
Cincinnati Reds – Key Position Players
1B Christian Encarnacion-Strand
2B Jonathan India
SS Elly De La Cruz
3B Noelvi Marte
LF Jake Fraley
CF TJ Friedl
RF Will Benson
DH Spencer Steer
C Tyler Stephenson / Luke Maile
Injury Reports
Pittsburgh Pirates
Mitch Keller – IL (shoulder)
David Bednar – IL (lat strain)
Connor Joe – IL (hamstring)
Luis Ortiz – IL (elbow)
Cincinnati Reds
Hunter Greene – IL (forearm)
Nick Lodolo – IL (back)
Matt McLain – IL (oblique)
Brandon Williamson – IL (shoulder)
Recent Team Form
Pittsburgh Pirates – Last 10 Games: 6–4
Offense averaging 4.8 runs per game.
Bullpen shaky without Bednar: 4.41 ERA last 10.
Road record: 26–30.
Oneil Cruz has 4 HR in his last 9 games.
Cincinnati Reds – Last 10 Games: 4–6
Offense averaging 4.3 runs per game.
Bullpen has been strong: 3.12 ERA last 10.
Home record: 28–27.
Elly De La Cruz has 6 steals in his last 10 games.
Series History (2024–2026)
Reds lead the overall series across the last three seasons.
2026 head-to-head: Reds lead 4–3 entering this matchup.
Great American Ball Park matchups have averaged 9.8 runs since 2024.
HRs have been a major factor: 2.3 HR per game in this park between these teams.
Key Player vs Player Matchups
Brandon Ashcraft vs Elly De La Cruz
De La Cruz crushes elevated sinkers and has elite bat speed.
Ashcraft must keep the ball down or risk HR damage.
Edge: De La Cruz
Brandon Ashcraft vs Jake Fraley
Fraley’s left-handed power plays perfectly with wind blowing out.
Ashcraft’s slider can neutralize him if sharp.
Edge: Fraley (slight)
Andrew Abbott vs Bryan Reynolds
Reynolds hits lefties well (.298 vs LHP in 2026).
Abbott’s curveball is the key — Reynolds struggles vs high-spin breaking balls.
Edge: Abbott
Andrew Abbott vs Oneil Cruz
Cruz’s long levers make him vulnerable to Abbott’s elevated fastball.
But Cruz’s raw power is dangerous in Cincinnati.
Edge: Abbott, with HR risk.
Betting Trends (2026 Season)
Pittsburgh Pirates
ML: 55–56
O/U: 53–55–3
As road underdog: 21–28
First 5 innings overs: 54%
Cincinnati Reds
ML: 52–57
O/U: 57–49–3
As home favorite: 18–15
Full-game overs at home: 63%
Head-to-head trends
Overs have hit in 6 of last 9 meetings.
Reds have won 7 of last 10 at Great American Ball Park.
Game Odds
Pittsburgh Pirates – 115
Cincinnati Reds 8.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Friday, July 31, 2026
