Venue: Wrigley Field, Chicago, Illinois
Scheduled First Pitch: 1:20 p.m. CDT
Surface: Kentucky bluegrass
Weather Forecast – Wrigley Field
Temperature: 81°F at first pitch
Wind: 14–17 mph blowing out to left field
Humidity: 63%
Sky: Mostly sunny
Run Environment: Wrigley becomes hitter-friendly with wind blowing out to left. Right-handed pull hitters gain a major boost; left-handed hitters with opposite-field lift also benefit. Expect elevated HR probability.
Probable Pitchers
New York Yankees – LHP Max Fried
2026 Season: 3.38 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 121.0 IP, 24.9% K, 6.4% BB
Profile:
Elite command lefty with sinker, curveball, slider, and changeup.
Generates ground balls (52%)—a valuable trait at Wrigley when wind is blowing out.
Cubs’ lineup has several right-handed bats (Suzuki, Morel, Hoerner) who hit lefties well, but Fried’s curveball historically neutralizes aggressive hitters.
Chicago Cubs – RHP Drew Peterson
2026 Season: 4.21 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 108.2 IP, 22.1% K, 8.7% BB
Profile:
Four-seam/slider pitcher with occasional changeup.
Vulnerable to left-handed power; Yankees’ lineup features multiple lefty threats (Soto, Rizzo, Verdugo).
Fly-ball tendencies (38% FB rate) are dangerous with wind blowing out.
Current Rosters
New York Yankees – Key Position Players
1B Anthony Rizzo
2B Gleyber Torres
SS Anthony Volpe
3B Oswald Peraza
LF Alex Verdugo
CF Jasson Domínguez
RF Juan Soto
DH Giancarlo Stanton
C Austin Wells / Jose Trevino
Chicago Cubs – Key Position Players
1B Michael Busch
2B Nico Hoerner
SS Dansby Swanson
3B Christopher Morel
LF Ian Happ
CF Pete Crow-Armstrong
RF Seiya Suzuki
DH Cody Bellinger
C Yan Gomes / Miguel Amaya
Injury Reports
New York Yankees
Aaron Judge – IL (oblique)
Clarke Schmidt – IL (shoulder)
Jonathan Loáisiga – IL (elbow)
DJ LeMahieu – IL (foot)
Chicago Cubs
Justin Steele – IL (lat)
Kyle Hendricks – IL (back)
Matt Mervis – IL (knee)
Ben Brown – IL (forearm)
Recent Team Form
New York Yankees – Last 10 Games: 6–4
Offense averaging 5.2 runs per game.
Soto is scorching hot (.391 over last 10).
Bullpen ERA last 10: 3.02.
Road record: 29–25.
Chicago Cubs – Last 10 Games: 5–5
Offense averaging 4.7 runs per game.
Suzuki and Morel carrying the lineup.
Bullpen has been shaky: 4.58 ERA over last 10.
Home record: 34–22.
Series History (2024–2026)
Yankees lead the overall interleague series.
2026 head-to-head: Yankees lead 2–1 entering this matchup.
Wrigley Field games between these teams have averaged 9.3 runs since 2024.
Wind blowing out historically increases scoring by ~1.4 runs at Wrigley.
Key Player vs Player Matchups
Max Fried vs Seiya Suzuki
Suzuki hits lefties extremely well (.302 vs LHP in 2026).
Fried’s curveball may disrupt Suzuki’s timing, but wind favors Suzuki’s pull power.
Edge: Suzuki
Max Fried vs Cody Bellinger
Bellinger struggles vs elite left-handed pitching.
Fried’s sinker/curve combo is a nightmare for Bellinger’s swing path.
Edge: Fried
Drew Peterson vs Juan Soto
Soto vs right-handed fastball/slider pitchers is one of MLB’s most lopsided matchups.
Soto’s OBP vs RHP in 2026: .452
Wind blowing out enhances Soto’s HR probability.
Edge: Soto (major)
Drew Peterson vs Anthony Rizzo
Rizzo’s pull power into the right-field corner is less wind-aided today, but he handles sliders well.
Peterson’s slider location will determine this matchup.
Edge: Rizzo
Betting Trends (2026 Season)
New York Yankees
ML: 62–48
O/U: 55–51–4
As road favorite: 18–12
First 5 innings overs: 57%
Chicago Cubs
ML: 62–48
O/U: 58–49–3
As home underdog: 14–10
Full-game overs at Wrigley: 61%
Head-to-head trends
Overs have hit in 5 of last 7 meetings.
Yankees have won 6 of last 8 vs Cubs.
GAME ODDS
New York Yankees 6.5
Chicago Cubs – 115
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Friday, July 31, 2026
