First Pitch: 7:07 p.m. ET (4:07 p.m. PT for you in East Los Angeles)
Venue: Rogers Centre — Toronto, Ontario
Roof Status: Likely closed (chance of showers + humidity)
Weather Outlook — Toronto
Even though Rogers Centre is a retractable‑roof stadium, weather still influences roof decisions.
Conditions: Cloudy with scattered showers
Temperature: ~74°F
Humidity: ~70%
Wind: 10–14 mph from the southwest
Impact: Roof expected to be closed, creating neutral hitting conditions with predictable air density.
Probable Pitchers
New York — RHP Nolan McLean
Record: 1–4
ERA: 5.02
WHIP: 1.41
Strikeouts: 44
Profile:
Power arm with swing‑and‑miss upside
Command issues lead to elevated pitch counts
Vulnerable to right‑handed power hitters
Blue Jays’ lineup matches well against his fastball‑heavy approach
Toronto — RHP Kevin Gausman
Record: 5–6
ERA: 3.66
WHIP: 1.18
Strikeouts: 97
Profile:
Still one of MLB’s premier splitter pitchers
Excellent home splits at Rogers Centre
Mets’ lineup struggles vs. elite off‑speed pitching
Should control early innings if splitter is sharp
Team Records & Recent Form
New York Mets (35–50)
Road Record: 15–28
Last 10: 3–7
Trend:
Offense slumping (3.4 runs per game over last 10)
Rotation ERA: 4.91 in last 10
Bullpen has blown 4 leads in last 8 games
Toronto Blue Jays (40–45)
Home Record: 22–20
Last 10: 6–4
Trend:
Offense showing signs of life
Pitching staff stabilizing after rough May
Bullpen ERA: 3.74 over last 10 (top‑10 in MLB during that span)
Injury Report
Mets
Francisco Lindor — DAY‑TO‑DAY (ankle)
Starling Marte — OUT (hip)
Kodai Senga — OUT (shoulder)
Brooks Raley — OUT (elbow)
Impact: Lindor’s availability is critical. Without him, the Mets lose their best defensive anchor and a top‑three OBP bat.
Blue Jays
Bo Bichette — OUT (knee)
Yusei Kikuchi — OUT (forearm)
Jordan Romano — OUT (elbow)
Isiah Kiner‑Falefa — DAY‑TO‑DAY (hand)
Impact: Bichette’s absence hurts Toronto’s middle‑order consistency, but the Jays have compensated with improved production from their depth pieces.
Key Player Matchups
Pete Alonso (NYM) vs. Kevin Gausman (TOR)
Alonso’s power is always a threat, but Gausman’s splitter historically neutralizes high‑launch‑angle hitters. Alonso is hitting just .214 vs. splitters this season.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) vs. Nolan McLean (NYM)
McLean’s fastball sits in Guerrero’s preferred hitting zone. Vlad Jr. has a .318 average vs. 95+ mph fastballs this season.
George Springer (TOR) vs. Mets Bullpen
Springer has 11 RBI in his last 12 games. Mets bullpen has allowed 17 runs in its last 20 innings.
Series History
2025 Season Series: Blue Jays won 3–0
Last 10 Meetings: Blue Jays lead 7–3
At Rogers Centre: Toronto has won 6 of last 8
Trend:
Mets struggle in AL ballparks
Blue Jays’ pitching has dominated recent matchups
Betting Trends
Mets
3–7 last 10
Unders hit in 6 of last 10
Mets are 1–6 in last 7 road games vs. AL teams
Blue Jays
6–4 last 10
Overs hit in 7 of last 10
Gausman’s home starts average 8.9 total runs
Game Odds
New York Mets 8
Toronto Blue Jays – 113
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Monday, June 29, 2026
