Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH
First Pitch: 7:10 PM ET
Broadcast: SNY, Bally Sports Ohio, MLB.TV
The Mets and Reds meet in a mid‑June NL matchup between two clubs trying to climb back into the Wild Card race. New York enters at 32–41, struggling to find consistency on both sides of the ball. Cincinnati, at 35–37, has hovered around .500 all season and looks to build momentum behind left‑hander Nick Lodolo, who has been one of their most reliable arms. The Mets counter with McLean, a young right‑hander still finding his footing at the major‑league level.
Venue Information
Great American Ball Park — Cincinnati, Ohio
Opened: 2003
Capacity: ~42,000
Park Factors:
One of MLB’s most hitter‑friendly parks
Boosts home runs for both lefties and righties
Short porches in left and right increase HR probability
Weather Forecast (Cincinnati, OH)
Temperature: 83–87°F at first pitch
Humidity: 60–70%
Wind: 8–12 mph blowing out to right‑center
Rain Chance: <10%
Impact:
Warm, humid air + wind out = significant HR boost
Favors power hitters on both sides
Could elevate scoring even with strong pitching
Injury Report
New York Mets
Pete Alonso — Healthy
Francisco Lindor — Healthy
Brandon Nimmo — Healthy
Starling Marte — Questionable (quad)
McLean — Healthy
Impact: If Marte sits, the Mets lose a key right‑handed bat and speed threat, weakening their outfield depth.
Cincinnati Reds
Elly De La Cruz — Healthy
Spencer Steer — Healthy
Christian Encarnacion‑Strand — OUT (wrist)
TJ Friedl — Healthy
Nick Lodolo — Healthy
Impact: Encarnacion‑Strand’s absence removes a major power bat, but Cincinnati’s young core remains dangerous.
Team Records & Recent Form
New York Mets (32–41)
Last 10: 4–6
Road Record: 15–22
Run Differential: -36
Trend: Rotation inconsistent; bullpen unreliable; offense streaky
Cincinnati Reds (35–37)
Last 10: 6–4
Home Record: 19–17
Run Differential: -8
Trend: Pitching improving; offense explosive at home; defense stabilizing
Series History
2025 Season: Reds won 4–2
Last 20 Meetings: Reds lead 11–9
At Great American Ball Park (last 10): Reds lead 7–3
Cincinnati has consistently held the home‑field edge in this matchup.
Pitching Matchup Breakdown
NYM — McLean (RHP)
2026 Stats: 4.77 ERA, 1.39 WHIP
Strengths: Good velocity, improving slider
Weaknesses: Command inconsistency, HR‑prone in hitter’s parks
Matchup Outlook:
Great American Ball Park is a tough environment for young pitchers
Reds’ lefties (Friedl, Steer) match up well
Must avoid falling behind in counts
CIN — Nick Lodolo (LHP)
2026 Stats: 3.48 ERA, 1.18 WHIP
Strengths: Elite curveball, strong strikeout rate, good command
Weaknesses: Occasional issues vs. right‑handed power
Matchup Outlook:
Mets’ righties (Alonso, Lindor) are key threats
If Lodolo’s curveball is sharp, he can dominate
Should work deep into the game
Key Player Matchups
1. Pete Alonso (NYM) vs. Nick Lodolo (CIN)
Alonso crushes left‑handed pitching
Lodolo must keep the curveball below the zone
HR potential is high given park conditions
2. Elly De La Cruz (CIN) vs. McLean (NYM)
De La Cruz’s elite bat speed vs. McLean’s inconsistent fastball
Could be a multi‑extra‑base‑hit night
3. Francisco Lindor (NYM) vs. Lodolo’s Curveball
Lindor handles breaking balls well
Key matchup for Mets’ run production
4. Spencer Steer (CIN) vs. Mets Bullpen
Steer has been excellent in late‑inning situations
Mets’ bullpen has struggled to hold leads
Betting Trends
New York Mets
4–6 in last 10
Over is 6–3 in last 9
2–8 in last 10 road games
3–7 in McLean’s last 10 starts
Cincinnati Reds
7–3 in last 10 home games
Over is 5–2 in last 7
6–2 in Lodolo’s last 8 starts
8–3 in last 11 vs. Mets at home
Predictive Analysis
Why New York Can Win
Alonso and Lindor can carry the offense
Mets’ lineup matches up well vs. left‑handed pitching
If McLean limits HRs, NYM can keep it close
Why Cincinnati Can Win
Lodolo has a strong matchup vs. Mets’ inconsistent lineup
Reds dominate this matchup at home
Ballpark + weather strongly favor CIN’s power hitters
Mets’ bullpen is a liability
X‑Factor:
Elly De La Cruz’s ability to create instant offense. If he gets on base early, Cincinnati can control the game’s tempo.
Game Odds
New York Mets – 130
Cincinnati Reds 9
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Tuesday, June 16, 2026
