First Pitch: 4:10 PM ET / 1:10 PM MT
Venue: Chase Field, Phoenix, Arizona
Surface: Artificial turf
Roof: Retractable (expected closed)
Series: Game 3 of 3 (Series tied 1–1)
Weather Report (Roof Impact)
Phoenix weather influences roof decisions even though Chase Field is climate‑controlled.
- Outside Temperature: 92–96°F
- Conditions: Sunny
- Wind: 8–12 mph from the southwest
- Roof Expectation: Closed due to heat
- Impact:
- Closed roof → neutral hitting environment, slightly pitcher‑friendly.
- Home run carry reduced compared to open‑roof games.
- Run scoring driven by pitching matchups, not weather.
Injury Report
New York Mets
- 1B Pete Alonso — Healthy (no restrictions)
- SS Francisco Lindor — Healthy
- OF Brandon Nimmo — Day-to-day (hamstring tightness; expected to play)
- SP Kodai Senga — OUT (shoulder)
- RP Edwin Díaz — OUT (elbow inflammation)
- 3B Brett Baty — OUT (wrist fracture)
Arizona Diamondbacks
- OF Corbin Carroll — Day-to-day (knee soreness; likely to play)
- SP Zac Gallen — OUT (forearm strain)
- RP Kevin Ginkel — OUT (lat strain)
- C Gabriel Moreno — Healthy
- OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr. — Healthy
Team Records & Recent Form
New York Mets (15–24)
- Last 10: 4–6
- Road Record: 7–13
- Run Differential: –32
- Trend: Pitching inconsistent; offense reliant on Alonso/Lindor.
- Strength: Top‑end power; improved plate discipline.
- Weakness: Bullpen instability without Díaz; bottom of lineup struggles.
Arizona Diamondbacks (18–20)
- Last 10: 5–5
- Home Record: 10–10
- Run Differential: –9
- Trend: Offense streaky; pitching depth tested by injuries.
- Strength: Speed, athleticism, and strong defensive metrics.
- Weakness: Rotation thin without Gallen; bullpen unreliable.
Probable Starting Pitchers
New York — RHP Luis Severino (2–4, 4.39 ERA)
- 2026 Road ERA: 4.66
- WHIP: 1.33
- K/9: 8.5
- Scouting Notes:
- Fastball/slider combo still effective when command is sharp.
- Arizona struggles vs. high‑velocity four‑seamers.
- Vulnerable to early home runs if slider flattens.
Arizona — RHP Brandon Pfaadt (3–3, 4.02 ERA)
- 2026 Home ERA: 3.71
- WHIP: 1.25
- K/BB: Strong command profile
- Scouting Notes:
- Sweeper and changeup both generating whiffs.
- Mets’ lineup struggles vs. quality breaking balls.
- Needs to avoid middle‑in fastballs to Alonso.
Key Player Matchups
1. Pete Alonso (NYM) vs. Brandon Pfaadt
- Alonso crushes elevated fastballs.
- Pfaadt must rely on off‑speed sequencing to neutralize him.
2. Corbin Carroll (ARI) vs. Luis Severino
- Carroll’s speed pressures Severino, who struggles controlling the running game.
- If healthy, Carroll is Arizona’s biggest X‑factor.
3. Francisco Lindor (NYM) vs. D‑Backs Bullpen
- Lindor thrives vs. right‑handed relievers.
- Arizona’s middle relief is vulnerable to switch‑hitters.
4. Ketel Marte (ARI) vs. Severino
- Marte handles sliders well and is Arizona’s best chance for early damage.
Series History
- 2025–2026 Combined: Mets lead 6–5
- At Chase Field: Diamondbacks have won 4 of last 6
- Trend: Games often close, with late‑inning swings deciding outcomes.
Betting Trends
New York Mets
- 3–7 last 10 road games
- Overs hit in 6 of last 9 Mets games
- Mets are 4–15 when trailing after 6 innings
Arizona Diamondbacks
- 5–3 last eight home games
- Unders hit in 5 of last 7 at Chase Field
- Arizona is 13–6 when scoring 4+ runs
Head-to-Head
- Home team is 6–4 in last 10
- Overs are 6–4 in last 10
- Mets have covered run line in 4 of last 6
Game Odds
New York Mets 8.5
Arizona Diamondbacks – 115
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Saturday, May 9, 2026
