Venue: T-Mobile Park — Seattle, Washington
Scheduled First Pitch: 6:40 p.m. PDT
Surface: Kentucky bluegrass
Weather Forecast – T-Mobile Park
(Roof status determines run environment.)
Temperature: 76°F at first pitch
Wind: 7–10 mph blowing out to right-center
Humidity: 63%
Sky: Partly cloudy
Roof Expectation: Likely open due to mild, dry conditions.
Run Environment: With the roof open, T-Mobile Park plays neutral-to-slightly hitter-friendly, especially for left-handed pull hitters and opposite-field right-handed hitters.
Probable Pitchers
Minnesota – LHP Connor Prielipp
2026 Season: 4.12 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 109.2 IP, 24.1% K, 8.0% BB
Profile:
Four-seam/slider/changeup mix; slider is his best swing-and-miss pitch.
Command can be inconsistent, leading to elevated fastballs — dangerous with wind blowing out.
Mariners’ lineup features several right-handed bats (Rodríguez, France, Canzone) who hit lefties well.
Must rely on slider/changeup to avoid barrels.
Seattle – RHP Logan Gilbert
2026 Season: 3.47 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 128.0 IP, 26.8% K, 6.1% BB
Profile:
High-spin four-seam/slider/split-change arsenal.
Excellent command and strong strikeout ability.
Twins’ lineup is left-handed heavy (Kepler, Kirilloff, Julien), giving Gilbert a favorable matchup.
Only vulnerability: occasional HR issues when fastball leaks middle-middle.
Current Rosters
Minnesota Twins – Key Position Players
1B Alex Kirilloff
2B Edouard Julien
SS Carlos Correa
3B Royce Lewis
LF Trevor Larnach
CF Byron Buxton
RF Max Kepler
DH Jose Miranda
C Ryan Jeffers / Christian Vázquez
Seattle Mariners – Key Position Players
1B Ty France
2B Jorge Polanco
SS J.P. Crawford
3B Josh Rojas
LF Dominic Canzone
CF Julio Rodríguez
RF Mitch Haniger
DH Cal Raleigh
C Cal Raleigh / Harry Ford
Injury Reports
Minnesota Twins
Joe Ryan – IL (shoulder)
Chris Paddack – IL (elbow)
Brooks Lee – IL (back)
Jhoan Duran – IL (forearm)
Seattle Mariners
George Kirby – IL (lat strain)
Matt Brash – IL (elbow)
Taylor Trammell – IL (hamstring)
Andrés Muñoz – IL (shoulder)
Recent Team Form
Minnesota Twins – Last 10 Games: 5–5
Offense averaging 4.6 runs per game.
Bullpen ERA last 10: 3.88.
Road record: 25–30.
Royce Lewis has 4 HR in his last 9 games.
Seattle Mariners – Last 10 Games: 4–6
Offense averaging 4.2 runs per game.
Bullpen has struggled: 4.71 ERA last 10.
Home record: 29–27.
Julio Rodríguez has 3 HR and 4 SB in his last 10 games.
Series History (2024–2026)
Twins have controlled the matchup recently.
2026 head-to-head: Twins lead 3–1 entering this matchup.
T-Mobile Park games between these teams since 2024 have averaged 7.8 runs.
Twins have won 5 of last 7 in Seattle.
Key Player vs Player Matchups
Connor Prielipp vs Julio Rodríguez
Rodríguez crushes left-handed pitching and handles sliders well.
Prielipp’s command volatility makes this a dangerous matchup.
Edge: Rodríguez (major)
Connor Prielipp vs Ty France
France excels vs mid-velocity fastballs and changeups.
Prielipp must keep slider down.
Edge: France
Logan Gilbert vs Max Kepler
Kepler struggles vs high-spin fastballs up in the zone.
Gilbert’s four-seam/slider combo is a strong matchup advantage.
Edge: Gilbert
Logan Gilbert vs Carlos Correa
Correa handles high velocity well but struggles vs split-change.
Gilbert’s splitter is a key weapon here.
Edge: Gilbert (slight)
Betting Trends (2026 Season)
Minnesota Twins
ML: 56–55
O/U: 54–55–2
As road underdog: 20–26
First 5 innings unders: 57%
Seattle Mariners
ML: 53–58
O/U: 52–57–2
As home favorite: 22–18
Full-game unders at home: 58%
Head-to-head trends
Unders have hit in 6 of last 10 meetings.
Twins have covered run line in 7 of last 10 vs Seattle.
Game Odds
Minnesota Twins 7.5
Seattle Mariners – 160
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Friday, July 31, 2026
