Venue & Game Info
- Date & Time: Saturday, August 30, 2025 – First pitch 4:10 p.m. ET
- Venue: Citi Field, 41 Seaver Way, Flushing, Queens, NY 11368
- Broadcast: MLB Network, WPIX (NY), FDSFL (Miami)
Weather Outlook (Queens, NY)
- Forecast: Mostly sunny, 74°F at first pitch
- Wind: 8–10 mph out to left field — slight boost for RH pull hitters
- Precipitation: <5% chance — no delays expected
- Impact: Mild wind could aid fly balls; otherwise neutral hitting conditions
Injury Report
New York Mets:
- Francisco Álvarez (thumb) – 10-Day IL
- Reed Garrett (elbow) – 15-Day IL
- Frankie Montas, Griffin Canning, Tylor Megill, A.J. Minter, Drew Smith – 60-Day IL (various)
- Jesse Winker (back) – 60-Day IL
Miami Marlins:
- Janson Junk (arm) – 15-Day IL
- Kyle Stowers (oblique) – 10-Day IL
- Anthony Bender, Jesus Tinoco, Braxton Garrett, Andrew Nardi, Max Meyer – 60-Day IL (various)
Probable Pitching Matchup
Recent Form
New York Mets (Last 10): 6-4
- Runs/Game: 7.1
- Team BA: .320
- ERA: 4.34
- Key: 19-run franchise-record explosion vs MIA on Aug. 29; 4 players with 20+ HR
Miami Marlins (Last 10): 4-6
- Runs/Game: 3.6
- Team BA: .240
- ERA: 6.36
- Key: Inconsistent offense; bullpen allowing 32.5% inherited runners to score
Series History
- 2025 Season Series: Mets lead 5-3
- All-Time: Mets 289–243 vs Marlins
- Recent: Mets took 2 of 3 in April; split first two of current 4-game set (MIA 7–4 on Aug. 28, NYM 19–9 on Aug. 29)
Player Matchups to Watch
- Pete Alonso (NYM) vs. Cabrera – .318 last 5 games, 1 HR, 5 RBI; power threat vs RHP
- Juan Soto (NYM) – 33 HR, .387 OBP; patient approach could drive Cabrera’s pitch count
- Brandon Nimmo (NYM) – 2 HR in last game vs MIA; riding 4-game hit streak
- Xavier Edwards (MIA) – .285 BA, 24 SB; table-setter vs Peterson’s LHP
- Otto Lopez (MIA) – 4-hit game in series; contact bat in middle order
- Agustin Ramirez (MIA) – 18 HR; power upside but 58% K rate in games played
Betting Trends
New York Mets:
- 20-6 when favored at -189 or shorter
- Over is 6-4 in last 10 games
- 7-3 ATS last 10
Miami Marlins:
- 11-17 as +156 or longer underdog
- Over is 6-4 in last 10
- 5-5 ATS last 10
Suggested Wagering Model
Model Inputs:
- Pitcher splits (Peterson home vs RHB-heavy lineup; Cabrera road vs LHB power)
- Recent offensive surge by Mets (9+ runs/game last 5)
- Marlins bullpen ERA (4.58 season; 6.36 last 10)
- Weather aiding fly ball carry to LF
GAME ODDS
Miami Marlins 8
New York Mets – 189
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Friday, August 29, 2025
