First Pitch: 7:40 p.m. CT
Venue: Target Field — Minneapolis, Minnesota
Venue & Weather Conditions
Target Field is one of MLB’s more neutral parks, but cool May nights tend to favor pitchers.
Minneapolis Forecast (7–10 p.m. CT):
- Temperature: 59–62°F
- Wind: 7–10 mph blowing in from right field
- Humidity: ~55%
- Precipitation: <10% — clear and dry
- Impact:
- Suppresses left-handed pull power
- Boosts ground‑ball pitchers
- Slight lean toward unders
Injury Report
Miami Marlins
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. — Healthy
- Jake Burger — Day-to-day (wrist)
- Josh Bell — Healthy
- Jesús Luzardo — OUT (elbow)
- Max Meyer — Healthy and scheduled to start
- Tanner Scott — Healthy
Minnesota Twins
- Carlos Correa — Healthy
- Royce Lewis — OUT (quad)
- Byron Buxton — Day-to-day (hip)
- Joe Ryan — OUT (forearm)
- Simeon Woods Richardson — Healthy and scheduled to start
- Jhoan Durán — Healthy
Team Records & Recent Form
Miami Marlins (19–23)
- Last 10: 5–5
- Road Record: 8–13
- Run Differential: -21
- Trend: Pitching stabilizing; offense inconsistent; bullpen shaky late.
- Yesterday: Lost 4–2 — stranded multiple runners.
Minnesota Twins (19–23)
- Last 10: 4–6
- Home Record: 10–11
- Run Differential: -15
- Trend: Rotation thin; lineup streaky; bullpen strong late.
- Yesterday: Won 4–2 — Woods Richardson rested and ready.
Probable Pitching Matchup
Marlins — RHP Max Meyer (3–3, 3.54 ERA)
- 2026 form: Strong return from injury; excellent slider; improving command.
- Strengths: High strikeout upside; tough on righties; keeps ball in park.
- Weaknesses: Can struggle vs. left-handed power; pitch count climbs quickly.
- Matchup notes: Twins’ lefties (Kepler, Larnach) are key threats.
Twins — RHP Simeon Woods Richardson (2–4, 4.12 ERA)
- 2026 form: Solid mid-rotation arm; good home splits; improving fastball command.
- Strengths: Changeup effectiveness; induces soft contact; strong vs. righties.
- Weaknesses: Vulnerable to aggressive hitters; gives up hard contact when behind.
- Matchup notes: Marlins’ lefties (Chisholm, Sánchez) match up well.
Pitching Edge: Marlins (slightly) — Meyer’s swing‑and‑miss stuff gives him the edge.
Key Player Matchups
Marlins Hitters vs. Simeon Woods Richardson
- Jazz Chisholm Jr.: Excellent vs. changeups; HR/SB threat
- Josh Bell: Power vs. righties; ideal matchup
- Bryan De La Cruz: Hot streak; strong vs. fastballs
Twins Hitters vs. Max Meyer
- Carlos Correa: Best matchup; elite vs. sliders
- Max Kepler: Power vs. righties; HR potential
- Trevor Larnach: Patient approach; can force long at-bats
Matchup Edge: Even — both lineups have exploitable matchups.
Series History
- 2026 Season: First meeting
- Last 10 Meetings: Twins lead 6–4
- At Target Field (last 5 years): Twins win ~60% of matchups
Minnesota has historically handled Miami well at home.
Betting Trends
Marlins
- Under is 6–3 in last 9
- 4–1 in Meyer’s last 5 starts
- 3–7 in last 10 road games
Twins
- 5–2 in last 7 home games
- Under is 6–3 in last 9 at Target Field
- 2–5 in Woods Richardson’s last 7 starts
GAME ODDS
Miami Marlins – 126
Minnesota Twins 8.5
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Tuesday, May 12, 2026
