First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET / 4:10 p.m. PT
Venue: Citi Field — Queens, New York
Surface: Kentucky bluegrass
Capacity: 41,922
Weather Forecast (Queens, NY)
Open-air ballpark; weather will influence run environment.
- Temperature: 64–67°F at first pitch
- Wind: 10–14 mph blowing out to right field
- Humidity: ~60%
- Rain: 0% — clear, mild spring evening
- Weather Impact:
- Boost for left-handed pull power
- Slightly hitter-friendly overall
- Fly balls to right may carry more than usual
Injury Report
Detroit Tigers
- Riley Greene — Healthy
- Spencer Torkelson — Day-to-day (wrist soreness)
- Kerry Carpenter — OUT (shoulder surgery)
- Casey Mize — OUT (elbow fatigue)
- Tarik Skubal — Healthy (normal rest)
New York Mets
- Francisco Lindor — Probable (ankle soreness)
- Pete Alonso — Healthy
- Starling Marte — OUT (hamstring strain)
- Kodai Senga — OUT (shoulder inflammation)
- Brooks Raley — Day-to-day (back tightness)
Team Records & Recent Form
Detroit Tigers (19–22)
- Last 10: 4–6
- Road Record: 9–12
- Run Differential: -16
- Recent Form:
- Offense averaging 4.1 runs over last 10
- Bullpen inconsistent but improving
- Rotation remains the team’s strength
New York Mets (15–25)
- Last 10: 3–7
- Home Record: 7–12
- Run Differential: -32
- Recent Form:
- Offense struggling: 3.4 runs per game over last 10
- Bullpen has been unreliable in late innings
- Rotation depth thin without Senga
Probable Starting Pitchers
Detroit — LHP Tarik Skubal (4–2, 2.71 ERA)
- WHIP: 1.06
- K/BB: 58/12
- Strengths:
- Power lefty with elite swing‑and‑miss
- Excellent vs RHB
- Weaknesses:
- Occasional early-inning command issues
- Matchup Outlook:
- Mets’ lineup is RH-heavy → good matchup
- Wind blowing out to right slightly increases HR risk
New York — RHP Luis Severino (2–4, 4.66 ERA)
- WHIP: 1.32
- K/BB: 41/17
- Strengths:
- High-velo fastball, strong when ahead in counts
- Weaknesses:
- HR-prone, especially vs LHB
- Struggles with command when fatigued
- Matchup Outlook:
- Detroit’s LH bats (Greene, Meadows) match up well
- Citi Field wind pattern hurts him
Key Player Matchups
Riley Greene (DET) vs. Luis Severino
- Greene hitting .298 vs RHP
- Severino allows 1.4 HR/9 to LHB
- Advantage: Greene
Pete Alonso (NYM) vs. Tarik Skubal
- Alonso’s power vs lefties is elite
- Skubal’s fastball/slider combo neutralizes RH power
- Advantage: Skubal
Francisco Lindor (NYM) vs. Detroit Bullpen
- Lindor hitting .310 in late innings
- Detroit’s bullpen middle innings remain shaky
- Advantage: Lindor
Spencer Torkelson (DET) vs. Mets Bullpen
- Torkelson’s power plays well in Citi Field with wind out
- Mets bullpen bottom-third in HR allowed
- Advantage: Torkelson
Series History
- 2025 Season: Tigers swept 3-game series
- Last 10 Meetings: Tigers lead 7–3
- At Citi Field: Tigers 4–2 since 2016
- Trend: Low-scoring games common in Queens
Betting Trends
Detroit
- 5–2 in last 7 vs NL East
- Under is 7–3 in last 10 Skubal starts
- Tigers 4–1 in last 5 road games vs sub-.500 teams
New York
- 2–6 in last 8 home games
- Over is 6–2 in last 8 Mets home games
- Mets 1–5 in last 6 vs LHP
Head-to-Head
- Tigers have won 5 straight
- Under is 4–1 in last 5 meetings
Game Odds
Detroit Tigers 7.5
New York Mets – 145
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odds Direct as of Monday, May 11, 2026
