2025 Tepin Stakes – Race Preview & Analysis
Date: June 28, 2025
Track: Churchill Downs
Race: Race 8
Distance: 1 Mile (Turf)
Purse: $250,000
Eligibility: 3-Year-Old Fillies
Post Time: 4:25 PM ET
Contenders Breakdown
1. Fixin to Bee
Pedigree: Mshawish – Susie Bee
Trainer: George R. Arnold II
Jockey: Manny Franco
Form: 5th in G3 Regret
Analysis: Calumet Farm homebred with solid turf lineage. Mshawish adds versatility, but she’ll need to improve off her fifth-place finish in the Regret Stakes.
2. Something Stronger
Pedigree: Justify – Lora Padora (IRE)
Trainer: Al Stall Jr.
Jockey: James Graham
Form: Maiden winner at Churchill (5/15)
Analysis: Lightly raced filly with upside. Justify is producing turf talent, and this one could surprise with a step forward.
3. Love You Anyway
Pedigree: Tapit – Princess La Quinta
Trainer: George R. Arnold II
Jockey: Luis Saez
Form: Won Keeneland MSW (4/17)
Analysis: Bregman Family Racing’s filly has a high ceiling. Tapit adds class, and Saez is a strong turf pilot. A sleeper with upside.
4. Princess Attitude
Pedigree: Frankel (GB) – Keertana
Trainer: Victoria Oliver
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
Form: 3rd in Hilltop Stakes
Analysis: Daughter of turf titan Frankel, out of a multiple graded stakes-winning mare. Proven stakes performer with a strong late kick.
5. Lush Lips (GB)
Pedigree: Ten Sovereigns (IRE) – Lamyaa (GB)
Trainer: Brendan P. Walsh
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Form: 2nd in G2 Edgewood, 2nd in G3 Florida Oaks
Analysis: Consistent graded stakes performer. Finished behind division leader Nitrogen in her last two. Prat returns, and she’s the one to beat.
6. Vixen
Pedigree: Vekoma – Top Mission
Trainer: Mark E. Casse
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
Form: 3rd in G2 Edgewood, 3rd in G2 Appalachian
Analysis: Grade 3 winner who’s danced every dance. Casse-trained filly has tactical speed and top-tier connections. Major win threat.
7. Ninth Island
Pedigree: Constitution – Viva Vegas
Trainer: Bret Calhoun
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
Form: Won LS Allowance (5/24)
Analysis: Improving filly with a strong turf pedigree. Constitution is a rising turf sire. Faces a class test but could hit the board.
8. Favor to You
Pedigree: Divisidero – So Beautiful
Trainer: Phil D’Amato
Jockey: Antonio Fresu
Form: Won SA Allowance (5/23)
Analysis: West Coast shipper with upside. D’Amato-Fresu combo is red-hot. Could be a pace factor or late closer depending on trip.
Top Picks:
Win Contender: Lush Lips – consistent graded stakes form, Prat aboard
Main Rival: Vixen – proven class, Ortiz adds confidence
Value Play: Favor to You – sharp allowance win, dangerous shipper
Exacta Box: Lush Lips, Vixen, Favor to You
Trifecta Add-On: Princess Attitude – pedigree and form align
