1 Mile | Turf | Purse: $150,000 | Fillies & Mares, 3‑Year‑Olds & Up | Stakes
Race Details
Race: 2026 Wasted Tears Stakes – Race 12
Post Time: 10:05 PM CT
Surface: Turf
Distance: 1 mile (two‑turn turf route)
Rail Setting: 20 feet (projected)
Track Condition (Forecast): Firm
Weather Forecast: Clear skies, 86°F, light south winds 5–9 mph — warm Texas night conditions that typically favor tactical speed on Lone Star’s firm, fast turf course.
Field Analysis – Wasted Tears Stakes (Race 12)
(Morning line odds are projected based on typical Lone Star Park turf‑route stakes patterns.)
Post 1 – Texas Turf Temptation
ML Odds: 3‑1 Trainer: Bret Calhoun Jockey: Rey Gutierrez Recent Finishes: 1st, 2nd, 1st Preferred Track Conditions: Firm Running Style: Ground‑saving stalker
Analysis: Texas Turf Temptation draws the rail — a major advantage in a one‑mile turf route at Lone Star. She breaks cleanly, settles 2–3 lengths off the pace, and makes a decisive inside run. Her last win featured a sharp :23.4 final quarter, showing elite finishing ability. Calhoun’s turf mares are consistently dangerous, and Gutierrez excels at saving ground. If she avoids traffic, she’s a major win threat.
Post 2 – Southern Belle Breeze
ML Odds: 10‑1 Trainer: Karl Broberg Jockey: Ry Eikleberry Recent Finishes: 3rd, 4th, 2nd Preferred Track Conditions: Firm or good Running Style: Mid‑pack grinder
Analysis: Southern Belle Breeze is a steady, reliable mare who rarely runs a poor race. She lacks a huge turn of foot but sustains her run better than most. Eikleberry fits her well, and Broberg’s barn has been sharp with older turf mares. She needs a bit of pace up front, but if the leaders duel, she’ll be picking them off late.
Post 3 – Grand Prairie Pearl
ML Odds: 12‑1 Trainer: Danny Pish Jockey: Erik Asmussen Recent Finishes: 5th, 3rd, 1st Preferred Track Conditions: Firm Running Style: Tactical speed
Analysis: Grand Prairie Pearl is a tricky mare to read. Her best races are good enough to hit the board, but she’s inconsistent. Asmussen is an aggressive gate rider who may try to put her into the race early. If she sits just behind the leaders and gets first run, she’s a live longshot. If she’s shuffled back early, she’s less effective.
Post 4 – Wasted Tears Tribute
ML Odds: 7‑2 Trainer: Steve Asmussen Jockey: Stewart Elliott Recent Finishes: 2nd, 1st, 2nd Preferred Track Conditions: Firm Running Style: Stalker / tactical closer
Analysis: Wasted Tears Tribute enters in top form, with a win and two strong runner‑up finishes. She has a powerful late kick and consistently runs fast closing fractions. Elliott is excellent at timing late moves, and Asmussen’s barn has been sharp with turf routers. The only concern is trip — she can get stuck behind tiring horses. If she gets a clear lane, she’s a major threat.
Post 5 – Prairie Princess
ML Odds: 4‑1 Trainer: Cherie DeVaux Jockey: Florent Geroux Recent Finishes: 1st, 2nd, 1st Preferred Track Conditions: Firm Running Style: Versatile — can press or stalk
Analysis: Prairie Princess is the most versatile mare in the field. She can sit just off the pace or drop back and make one run. Her last two races were excellent — she pressed a moderate pace and still finished strongly. Geroux is a perfect fit for this type of horse, and DeVaux’s barn has been sharp with turf mares across the country. If the pace is moderate, she becomes extremely dangerous.
Post 6 – Dallas Dancer
ML Odds: 15‑1 Trainer: J.R. Caldwell Jockey: Lane Luzzi Recent Finishes: 4th, 6th, 3rd Preferred Track Conditions: Firm Running Style: Deep closer
Analysis: Dallas Dancer is the truest closer in the race, but that’s a tough style at Lone Star, where the turf course often favors tactical speed. Luzzi is a strong finisher, but she will need a pace meltdown to win. She’s usable underneath in exotics but needs everything to go her way.
Post 7 – Cowgirl Comet Turf
ML Odds: 6‑1 Trainer: Karl Broberg Jockey: David Cabrera Recent Finishes: 2nd, 1st, 2nd Preferred Track Conditions: Firm Running Style: Front‑running speed
Analysis: Cowgirl Comet Turf is the likely pacesetter. She has wired fields before and is dangerous when left alone on the lead. Cabrera is excellent at rationing speed, and Broberg’s barn has been strong with turf sprinters stretching out. If she gets comfortable fractions, she could take this field a long way. If she’s pressured early, she may fade late.
Pace Projection
Early Speed: Cowgirl Comet Turf (7), Grand Prairie Pearl (3)
Pressers: Prairie Princess (5), Texas Turf Temptation (1)
Stalkers: Wasted Tears Tribute (4), Southern Belle Breeze (2)
Closers: Dallas Dancer (6)
Expected Scenario: Cowgirl Comet Turf sends hard from the outside. Grand Prairie Pearl applies pressure. Texas Turf Temptation sits the perfect pocket trip. Prairie Princess stalks from the outside and gets first run on the tiring speed. Wasted Tears Tribute looks to close late with a powerful stretch run.
Predicted Order of Finish
Texas Turf Temptation (Post 1) – Rail draw + tactical speed + elite form
Prairie Princess (Post 5) – Versatility + ideal stalking position
Wasted Tears Tribute (Post 4) – Strong closer, but needs racing luck
Cowgirl Comet Turf (Post 7) – Speed holds for a piece
Southern Belle Breeze (Post 2) – Late run gets her into the superfecta
Grand Prairie Pearl (Post 3) – Needs a clean break
Dallas Dancer (Post 6) – Too much to do late
