Venue & Game Details
Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium (“The Swamp”), Gainesville, FL
Kickoff: 4:15 p.m. ET
Broadcast: SEC Network / Fubo streaming
Weather Forecast: ~79°F at kickoff, partly cloudy, humid, winds 6–10 mph,
Team Recent Form
Florida Gators:
Last game: Lost 34–17 to Texas A&M.
Trend: Offense averaging 22.3 PPG (104th nationally), defense allowing 19.8 PPG (38th nationally).
Strength: Defense ranks 33rd in total yards allowed (315.8 YPG).
Mississippi State Bulldogs:
Last game: Lost 31–9 to Texas A&M after a 4–0 start.
Trend: Offense averaging 33.7 PPG (44th nationally), defense allowing 19.8 PPG (38th nationally).
Strength: +5 turnover margin (20th nationally).
Injury Report
Florida: QB DJ Lagway – Healthy (1,233 yards, 9 TDs, 7 INTs); RB Jadan Baugh – Healthy (461 yards, 3 TDs).
Mississippi State: QB Blake Shapen – Healthy (1,199 yards, 9 TDs, 4 INTs, 66% completion); RB Da’Marion “Fluff” Bothwell – Healthy (465 yards, 6 TDs).
Key Player Matchups
QB DJ Lagway (Florida): Dual-threat but turnover-prone (7 INTs).
RB Jadan Baugh (Florida): 461 yards, 3 TDs – must establish ground game.
WR Vernell Brown III (Florida): 368 yards – reliable possession receiver.
QB Blake Shapen (MSU): 1,199 yards, 9 TDs, 4 INTs – efficient passer.
RB Fluff Bothwell (MSU): 465 yards, 6 TDs – key to Bulldogs’ red-zone success.
WR Brenen Thompson (MSU): 378 yards, 4 TDs – explosive playmaker.
Series History
Florida leads the all-time series 35–22–2.
Last meeting: Florida won 13–6 in 2018.
Mississippi State has not beaten Florida since 2010.
Betting Trends
Florida is 2-4 ATS this season.
Mississippi State is 5-1 ATS.
Florida is 1-2 ATS in last 3 games.
MSU games average 56.2 total points (over trend).
Historical Betting Results
Florida has failed to cover in 4 of last 6 games.
Mississippi State has covered in 5 of 6 games this season.
Average combined score in last 3 Florida games: 47.3 points (under line).
Average combined score in last 3 MSU games: 56.2 points (over line).
Score Projection: Florida 27 – Mississippi State 20
Game Odds
Florida Gators – 9.5
Mississippi State Bulldogs 53
Odds Courtesy of Sports Odd Direct as of Friday, October 17, 2025
