Friday, November 22, 2024
Fantasy Guru - Baseball

MLB Preview: NL Wild Card | Game 1: Arizona Diamondbacks (0-0) at Milwaukee Brewers (0-0)

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS NOTES:

EMBRACE THE CHAOS, POSTSEASON EDITION: The D-backs are in the postseason for the seventh time in franchise history: 1999, 2001, 2002, 2007, 2011, 2017 and 2023. This is the second time the D-backs have advanced as a Wild Card, also doing so in 2017, defeating the Rockies in the Wild Card Game to move On to the National League Division Series vs. Dodgers. In 40 Postseason games, are 18-22, 13-8 @ home, 5-14 on the road.

HOW IT FINISHED: The D-backs secured the third NL Wild Card spot, behind the Phillies (first Wild Card) and Marlins (second Wild Card).

TOP 5: The D-backs’ 7 postseason appearances in 26 seasons (26.9 pct.) is the fifth-best postseason appearance in baseball history, trailing the Yankees (48.7; 58-for-119), Rays (34.6; 9-for-26), Dodgers (31.1; 37-119) and Astros (27.9; 17-for-61) and slightly ahead of the Cardinals (26.9; 32-for-119) (1903-2023, excluding 1904 & 1994) [source: Elias Sports Bureau].

…NOW WE HERE: The D-backs are the third team in Major League history to go from a 110+ loss season to a Postseason berth in a 3-season span

2023 D-backs 2023 Orioles 2015 Astros
2023: 84-78, 2nd 2023: 101-61, 1st 2015: 86-76, 2nd
2022: 74-88, 4th 2022: 83-79, 4th 2014: 70-92, 4th
2021: 52-110, 5th 2021: 51-110, 5th 2013: 51-111, 5th

SO WE MEET AGAIN: The D-backs face the Brewers in the postseason for the second time, having lost the 2011 NLDS (Oct. 1-7) 3-games-to-2 as the road team. This season, the D-backs went 4-2 vs. Brewers, 2-1 @ home and 2-1 on the road. Have won 3 of their last 4 games @ Brewers.

THE VETS: Ketel Marte and Christian Walker, in their seventh seasons as D-backs, are the club’s longest-tenured active players, 2 of 16 players with 7-plus years as D-backs and the lone remaining members from the 2017 team.

POSTSEASON EXPERIENCE: The D-backs have 5 position players and 3 pitchers with postseason experience:

PLAYER G-GS AVG OPS AB H 2B 3B HR RBI BB
Gurriel Jr. 2-2 .250 .625 8 2 1 0 0 0 0
Longoria 35-35 .182 .692 132 24 5 0 10 22 11
Marte 4-4 .412 1.235 17 7 0 2 1 2 0
Pham 15-13 .352 .931 54 19 2 0 3 6 2
Walker 2-0 1.000 2.000 1 1 0 0 0 0 0

PITCHER G-GS W-L SV ERA IP AVG OPP H AB R ER BB K
Castro 2-0 0-0 0 0.00 2.0 .000 .000 0 6 0 0 0 2
Sewald 3-0 0-0 0 16.20 3.1 .308 .935 4 13 6 6 2 6
Thompson 9-1 0-1 0 1.93 9.1 .219 .628 7 32 2 2 4 10

DEFENSE RULES: The D-backs set a franchise-record-low with 56 errors (previous was 75 in 2013 and ’18) and are 1 of 4 teams since 1900 with fewer than 60 errors in a regular season (excluding shortened seasons in 1981, ’94, ’95, 2020) along with the 2013 Orioles (54 E), 2013 Rays (59 E) and 2023 Rangers (57 E) The D-backs were second in the Majors with 32 outs above average and 25 runs prevented (Brewers 40 OAA, 34 RP).

SWIPING BAGS: The D-backs’ 166 stolen bases set a club record (previous: 137; 1999, 2016)…since 2017, were the second-most in the Majors (190 by 2023 Reds).

BULLPEN LOCK DOWN: D-backs’ relievers, in their last 13 games, have a 1.69 ERA (11 ER in 58.2 IP), .180 OPP AVG and .545 OPP OPS.

WAR RANKINGS: Corbin Carroll’s 5.8 and Ketel Marte’s 4.8 offensive bWAR were sixth and tied for ninth among NL leaders while Gabriel Moreno’s 3.1 defensive bWAR led the Majors. Among NL pitchers, Zac Gallen was third with a 5.2 fWAR/fourth with a 4.4 bWAR while Merrill Kelly was seventh with a 3.9 bWAR/12th with a 3.2 fWAR.

GAME 1 STARTER: Brandon Pfaadt debuted this season, at the age of 24 (turns 25 on Oct. 15), and will be second-youngest D-backs pitcher to start a postseason game, behind Daniel Hudson, 24, on Oct. 2, 2011 @ Brewers, and the third rookie to start a postseason game, along with Hudson and Josh Collmenter (Oct. 4, 2011 vs. Brewers).

STARTING PITCHER – RHP BRANDON PFAADT (FOUGHT) ♦ #32
AT A GLANCE: Entered this season as the D-backs’ No. 4 prospect by The Athletic (No. 38 overall) and MLB Pipeline (No. 59 overall). The D-backs’ 2022 Minor League Pitcher of the Year led the organization in wins, ERA and strikeouts…went 11-7 with a 3.83 ERA (71 ER in 167.0 IP), 218 strikeouts and 1.16 WHIP in 29 starts at Double-A Amarillo and Triple-A Reno. D-backs’ fi fth-round pick in the 2020 draft out of Bellarmine University (2018-20), their second-highest pick behind Todd Wellemeyer (4th round, 2000).

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: Is making his first career Postseason start. Is the second-youngest (24-353) pitcher to start a postseason game in franchise history behind Daniel Hudson (24-207) on Oct. 2, 2011 @ Brewers. Becomes the third rookie in franchise history to start a postseason game (also: Josh Collmenter/2011 vs. MIL and Micah Owings/2007@ COL [source: Elias Sports Bureau]. Made 18 Major League starts and went 3-9 with a 5.72 ERA (61 ER in 96.0 IP) over 3 stints with Arizona.

ROOKIE RANKINGS: Ranked among National League rookie pitchers in the regular season in starts (8th, 18), innings pitched (8th, 96.0) and strikeouts (T-9th, 94).

LAST START: Earned his third win of the season and first road win, in his final start of the regular season (0 ER in 5.2 IP, 5 H, 0 BB, 8 K). Recorded his third career-high tying 8-strikeout game (also: Aug. 13 vs. Padres and Sept. 22 @ Yankees).

VS. BREWERS Making his fi rst career start against the Brewers. In 5 starts against NL Central opponents in 2023, went 2-1 with a 3.86 ERA (12 ER in 28.0 IP).

LUCKY NO. 7: This season, Pfaadt recorded 2 road starts of 7.0 innings with 2 or fewer hits and 1 or fewer runs (Aug. 3 @ Giants and Aug. 18 @ Padres)… was 1 of 3 rookies to accomplish the feat (also: Kodai Senga/NYM and Hunter Brown/HOU).

SWEEPING TIME: Limited hitters to a .181 average (23-for-127) with 45 strikeouts off his sweeper.

SCORELESS STREAK: Owned a 12.2 inning scoreless streak from 8/13/23 vs. SD (2nd inning) – 8/25/23 vs. CIN (2nd inning).

MILWAUKEE BREWERS NOTES:

BREWERS vs. DIAMONDBACKS
SUMMARY: Are 90-82 all-time, including 2-4 this season…..went 3-4 last season.

at MIL: Are 45-39, going 41-31 at American Family Field and 4-8 at County Stadium…..the team went 1-2 this season…..went 2-1 last season…..the Brewers have gone 14-4 in their last 18 games at home against the Diamondbacks.

at ARI: Are 45-43 all-time at Chase Field, including 1-2 this season….. went 1-3 last season.

Brewed For Battle
The Brewers have qualified for the postseason for the ninth time in franchise history and fifth time in the last six seasons…..the team made the postseason in a franchise-record four consecutive seasons from 2018-21 and missed the postseason by just a single game in both 2017 and 2022.

Season Qualified
1981* …………….. Won AL East (2nd half)
1982 …………………………………Won AL East
2008 …………………….. Won NL Wild Card
2011 ……………………………. Won NL Central
2018 …………………………… Won NL Central
2019 …………Won Second NL Wild Card
2020………..Won Second NL Wild Card
2021 …………………………… Won NL Central
2023 ………………………….. Won NL Central

  • Strike-shortened season

Franchise Postseason Results
Year Opp. Result
1981 ……..NYY ….. Lost AL East Division Series
1982 …….CAL …………………………………. Won ALCS
STL ……………………..Lost World Series
2008 ……PHI ………………………………….Lost NLDS
2011 ………ARI ………………………………….Won NLDS
STL …………………………………. Lost NLCS
2018 …….COL ………………………………….Won NLDS
LAD …………………………………. Lost NLCS
2019 …… WSH ……….. Lost NL Wild Card Game
2020……LAD ……….. Lost NL Wild Card Series
2021 ……. ATL ……………………………………Los NLDS
Best MLB Records – 2023

Team W/L
Atlanta …………………………..104-58 (.642)
Baltimore ………………………..101-61 (.623)
Los Angeles-NL …………….100-62 (617)
Tampa Bay ……………………….99-63 (.611)
Milwaukee ……………………92-70 (.568)
Milwaukee vs. Arizona – 2023
Milwaukee Category Arizona
2 ………………………… Wins ……………………….4
19 ……………………….Runs …………………… 30
.204 ……………………AVG …………………. .261
.260 ……………………OBP ………………… .332
.328 …………………… SLG …………………… .411
.588 ……………………OPS ………………… .743
4.50 ……………………ERA ………………….3.23

Brewing Consistency
The Brewers won 86+ games for the sixth consecutive full season…..during this stretch (2017-23), the Brewers, Astros and Dodgers are the only Major League teams with 86+ wins each season (does not include 2020).

Season Record
2017 ……………………………………………. 86-76
2018 ……………………………………………. 96-67
2019 ……………………………………………. 89-73
2021 ……………………………………………. 95-67
2022 …………………………………………… 86-76
2023 …………………………………………… 92-70

Racking Up the Ws
Since 2017, the Brewers rank third in the National League and sixth in the Major Leagues in wins.
Team Wins
Los Angeles-NL …………………………….662
Houston ……………………………………………631
New York-AL ………………………………… 600
Tampa Bay ………………………………………591
Atlanta …………………………………………….587
Milwaukee ………………………………….. 573

TONIGHT’S GAME: Is Game 1 of the National League Wild Card Series vs. Arizona…..the Brewers and Diamondbacks are meeting in the postseason for the second time ever….. Milwaukee beat Arizona, 3 games to 2, in the 2011 NLDS.

NL WILD CARD SERIES ROSTER (bold indicates not on Opening Day roster):

IN THE TRAINER’S ROOM: LHP Aaron Ashby (left labrum), RHP JB Bukauskas (right ring finger), 1B Darin Ruf (right knee) and LHP Justin Wilson (left lat) are currently on the injured list…..Ashby, Ruf and Wilson are on the 60-day IL.

IN THE STANDINGS (186 days): The Brewers spent the following number of days alone or tied at each position in the NL Central standings this season: FIRST: 133, SECOND: 51, THIRD: 2, FOURTH: 0, FIFTH: 0…..the team clinched a postseason berth on 9/22 and the NL Central title on 9/26.

SERIES-LY SPEAKING: The Brewers went 30-20-2 in series play this season. Game 1: 29-23, Game 2: 31-21, Game 3: 26-24, Game 4: 6-2 Sweep Wins (9): vs. NYM (3g, 4/3-4/5), at SEA (3g, 4/17-4/19), vs. KC (3g, 5/12-5/14), vs. PIT (3g, 6/16-6/18), at CIN (3g, 7/14-7/16), at CWS (3g, 8/11-8/13), at TEX (3g, 8/18-8/20), vs. MIN (2g, 8/22-8/23), vs. SD (3g, 8/25-8/27)
Sweep Losses (5): at COL (3g, 5/2-5/4), vs. OAK (3g, 6/9-6/11), at MIN (2g, 6/13-6/14), at ATL (3g, 7/28-7/30), at LAD (3g, 8/15-8/17)

AT HOME: The Brewers went 49-32 at home, going 17-7-2 in series play…..the team went 17-5 in its last 22 home games, including a season-high 8-game winning streak from 8/9-9/2…..at 49-32 (.605), the Brewers were tied with the Phillies for the third-best home record in the NL behind the Dodgers (53-28, .654) and Braves (52-29, .642).

ON THE ROAD: The Brewers went 43-38 on the road, going 13-13-0 in series play….. from 7/1-7/16 had a season-high 5-game winning streak…..at 43-38 (531), the Brewers had the fourth-best road record in the NL behind the Braves (52-29, .642), Dodgers (47-34, .580) and Reds (44-37, .543).

LET’S GO TO THE VIDEO TAPE: The Brewers made 35 replay challenges this season, going 16-19…..their last challenge (won) came on 10/1 vs. Chicago-NL as an out call at first base (William Contreras) was overturned.

GAME 1 STARTER: #39 – RHP CORBIN BURNES (32gs, 10-8, 3.39)
BURNES AT A GLANCE: Corbin Burnes, 28, went 10-8 with a 3.39 ERA in 32 starts this season…..the team went 18-14 in his starts…..he had 19 quality starts…..opponents batted .200 (141-for-704, 22hr)…..he ranked among National League leaders in WHIP (1st, 1.07), opponent AVG (2nd, .200), H/9IP (2nd, 6.55), innings pitched (T5th, 193.2), ERA (6th, 3.39) and strikeouts (10th, 200)…..he produced 200+ strikeouts for the third straight season…..he was named NL Pitcher of the Month for July (6gs, 4-1, 1.85era)….. Burnes was selected in the fourth round of the 2016 First-Year Player Draft out of St. Mary’s (CA) College…..he is under club control through 2024.

POSTSEASON CAREER: Is 1-0 with a 1.20 ERA in 7 games/1 start (15ip, 6h, 2r, 2er, 4bb, 17k, 0hr)…..he made 6 relief appearances during the 2018 postseason…..his only start came in Game 1 of the 2021 NLDS vs. Atlanta, receiving no decision in the Brewers’ 2-1 win (6ip, 2h, 0r, 3bb, 6k, 1wp).

CAREER: Is 45-27 with a 3.26 ERA in 167 games/106 starts (709.1ip, 257er)…..is in his sixth Major League season, all with the Brewers (2018-23)…..is 37-24 with a 3.07 ERA as a starter (627.1ip, 214er) and 8-3 with a 4.72 ERA in relief (82ip, 43er)…..Burnes is a three-time All-Star (2021-23) and was a 2021 All-MLB First Team selection….. he was the 2021 National League Cy Young Award winner, becoming the third pitcher in franchise history to win the honor: Rollie Fingers (1981) and Pete Vuckovich (1982).

CAREER AT AMERICAN FAMILY FIELD: Is 21-15 with a 3.65 ERA in 80 games/53 starts (352.2ip, 143er)…..went 4-3 with a 4.28 ERA in 14 starts this season (80ip, 38er).

CAREER ON THE ROAD: Is 24-12 with a 2.88 ERA in 87 games/53 starts (356.2ip, 114er)…..went 6-5 with a 2.77 ERA in 18 starts this season (113.2ip, 35er).

CAREER vs. D-BACKS: Is 2-1 with a 3.77 ERA in 5 starts (28.2ip, 22h, 12r, 12er, 5bb, 34k, 2hr), going 1-1 with a 4.85 ERA in 2 starts this season (13ip, 11h, 7r, 7er, 2bb, 11k, 1hr).

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