Friday, November 22, 2024
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MLB Preview: Minnesota Twins (80-72) at Cincinnati Reds (79-74)

MINNESOTA TWINS NOTES:

THE TWINS: Have gone 4-2 through six games on their seven-game roadtrip, winning three of four in Chicago-AL, followed by a split of the first two games in Cincy this week…today, the Twins will complete the trip with the three-game series finale at Great American Ball Park… after today’s game, the Twins will travel back to Minneapolis to enjoy an off-day tomorrow… on Friday night, Minnesota will begin their final homestand of 2023 and play the Angels three times over the weekend, spend an off-day on September 25, then host the Athletics for three games from September 26-28…the Twins have gone 43-32 at home and 37-40 on the road, winning 10 of their last 16 games away from Target Field. The Twins have four road games remaining, one in Cincy and three at Colorado to finish the season…they need to go 4-0 to finish with a winning road record in 2023. The Twins are a season-high eight games over .500 for the fourth time this season…a win today would make them nine games over for the first time since July 6, 2022 (47-38). The Twins have gone 8-9 in rubber games this season.

GREAT AMERICAN SHUTOUT: The Twins shut out the Reds last night by a score of 7-0 at Great American Ball Park, marking Minnesota’s 12th shutout this season (T-9th in MLB)…Kenta Maeda (6-7) was the starter and winner, pitching 5.0 shutout innings with one hit allowed, one walk and eight strikeouts…Maeda improved to 3-0, 2.08 ERA (17.1 IP, 4 ER) with 18 strikeouts in his last three starts…the offense recorded 11 hits, including multiple hits from Edouard Julien (2), Willi Castro (2) and Matt Wallner (2)…Castro hit his eighth home run of the season and drove in two of the club’s six RBI…Minnesota also walked eight times, two short of their season high.

SERIES CONVERSATIONS: The Twins are seeking their 25th series victory this season…they are 24-19-5 in series play in 2023, going 13-8-3 at home and 11-11-2 on the road. The Twins have gone 7-3-1 in series play since August 11. The Twins have won four of their last five road series and five of their last seven away from Target Field. Minnesota has won five of their last six Interleague series.

CORREA TO THE IL: The Twins have placed shortstop Carlos Correa on the 10-day Injured List with left foot plantar fasciitis (retroactive to September 19)…Correa has played in a team-leading 135 games this season, hitting .230 (118-for-514) with 29 doubles, two triples, 18 home Runs, 65 RBI, 60 runs scored, 59 walks, a .312 on-base percentage and a .711 OPS…to replace Correa on the 28-man roster, the Twins have recalled outfielder Trevor Larnach from Triple-A St. Paul… in 72 games for the Saints this season, Larnach has hit .271 (71-for-262) with 14 doubles, one triple, 15 home runs, 47 RBI and an .888 OPS…in 50 games for the Twins this season, Larnach has hit .216 (35-for-162) with six doubles, three triples, six home runs and 32 RBI. In his last 16 games for StP, Larnach has slashed .403/.474/.710 with 10 walks and 17 RBI.

DIVISION SIGNS: After last night’s win and the Guardians loss to Kansas City, the Twins reduced their magic number to three…Minnesota enters today at 80-72 with a 8.0-game lead on the Guardians, who sit at 72-80…below is a brief look at Minnesota and Cleveland:

W-L GB YESTERDAY RESULT TODAY NEXT SERIES
Minnesota 80-72 – – Won at CIN, 7-0 at CIN (Ober vs. Greene) 3 vs. LAA (9/22-24) Cleveland 72-80 8.0 Lost at KC, 6-7 at KC (Giolito vs. Greinke) 4 vs. BAL (9/21-24) NOTE: The earliest the Twins could clinch the AL Central division title would be during the off-day tomorrow…if the Twins win today vs. the Reds and the Guardians lose today (at KC) and tomorrow (vs. BAL).

SEEING RED: Minnesota and Cincinnati are playing each other for the 34th time in their history today…the Twins are 16-17 all-time against the Reds, going 6-10 in Cincinnati (5-5 at Great American Ball Park and 1-5 at Cinergy Field) and 10-7 in Minnesota (3-5 at Target Field and 7-2 at the Metrodome). Kyle Farmer has played 212 career games at Great American Ball Park, 21st in the ballpark’s history…he has 163 career hits here, 25th most.

NATIONAL ATTENTION: The Twins have gone 22-20 in Interleague Play this season, going 1-2 at Miami, 1-2 vs. Washington, 2-1 vs. San Diego, 2-1 vs. Chicago-NL, 1-2 at Los Angeles-NL, 1-2 vs. San Francisco, 2-0 vs. Milwaukee, 0-3 at Atlanta, 2-1 at St. Louis, 3-0 vs. Arizona, 2-1 at Philadelphia, 2-1 vs. Pittsburgh, 0-2 at Milwaukee, 2-1 vs. New York-NL and 1-1 at Cincinnati…the Twins have gone 11-6 in their last 17 in IL Play and 15-10 in their last 25. Minnesota’s remaining 2023 IL schedule includes a trip to Colorado from September 29-October 1, to finish the regular season.

RETURN OF THE MAX: Max Kepler has hit safely in a season-long eight-straight games, two short of his career high of 10, done twice in 2019…since the All-Star break, Kepler is hitting .303 (63-for-208) with 16 doubles, two triples, 10 home runs, 30 RBI, 22 walks, a .371 on-base percentage, a .543 slugging percentage and a .914 OPS in 58 games (Twins 33-25 in those games).

WILLI WORLD: Willi Castro is hitting .296 (16-for-54) with three doubles, one triple, three home runs, seven RBI, a .339 on-base percentage, a .556 slugging percentage and an .895 OPS in his last 14 games…Casto has set career highs in walks (27) and stolen bases (31)… he has 18 doubles, tied for his single-season career-high (18 in 2022)…he has eight home runs, one short of tying his single-season career high (9 in 2021).

BARRELS OF FUN: Since August 1, Donovan Solano is hitting .324 (36-for-111) with five doubles, one triple, one home run, 15 RBI, a .370 on-base percentage and a .784 OPS in 32 games…however, he is looking to snap an 0-for-last-16.

REHAB UPDATE: Right-handed pitchers Jorge Alcala, Chris Paddack and Brock Stewart, utility player Nick Gordon and outfielder/first baseman Joey Gallo all appeared on rehab assignment last night for Triple-A St. Paul…Alcala pitched 1.0 scoreless inning with one hit allowed…Paddack pitched 3.0 shutout innings with two hits allowed, one walk and five strikeouts…Stewart pitched 1.0 scoreless inning with one walk and one strikeout…Gordon went 2-for-3 with a double…Gallo went 1-foor-3 with an RBI and a walk…Alcala averaged 96.3 mph on his fastball, Paddack at 96.6 mph and Stewart 97.2 mph.

THIS ONE’S FOR ALL THE CORN: High-A Cedar Rapids will continue Game 2 of the Midwest League Championship Series tonight at 5:30 pm (CT)…the game was suspended last night due to rain with the Kernels trailing 1-0 in the fifth inning…if the Kernels come back to win, it will mark their first MWL Championship since 1994…Game 3 (if necessary) would start after the completion of Game 2 (roughly 6:35).

WAY BACK WEDNESDAY: Bally Sports North analyst, LaTroy Hawkins, pitched in 44 career games against the Reds, going 2-2, 1.94 ERA (51.0 IP, 11 ER) with six saves and nine holds…the 1.94 ERA was his lowest mark against any opponent (minimum of 50.0 IP)…Hawk never allowed a run in this ballpark, pitching 9.2 scoreless innings with three hits allowed…finally, did you know that Hawkins was the winning pitcher in the Twins’ first-ever victory over the Reds on August 30, 1997 at the Metrodome…Hawk allowed one run on six hits in 7.0 innings pitched in a Twins 4-1 victory.

STARTING PITCHER – #17 BAILEY OBER
2023: 7-6, 3.67 ERA CAREER: 12-12, 3.75 ERA

Making his 24th start of the season and 11th road start…also his 55th career start and appearance. Facing the Reds for the second time in his career…did not factor into the decision in the 10-7 Twins’ loss on June 22, 2021 after pitching 4.1 innings and allowing four runs on six hits with two walks and two strikeouts. Selected by the Twins in the 12th round of the 2017 First-Year Player Draft out of the College
of Charleston.

LAST START: Earned his seventh win of the season in his last start on September 15 at Chicago-AL, a 10-2 Twins’ victory at Guaranteed Rate Field…marked his first start since being recalled from Triple-A St. Paul that day…pitched 5.0 innings and allowed two runs on five hits (1 HR), with no walks and six strikeouts…pitched 4.0 scoreless innings before allowing both runs on a two-run home run to Elvis Andrus in the fifth…relieved by Louie Varland as the bullpen combined to pitch 4.0 innings. Allowed his 20th home run of the season, tying his single-season career high (2021). Has yielded 12 home runs in his last nine starts, setting a new career high over a nine-game span (previously, 11, July 7-August 27). Has pitched 5.0-or-fewer innings in seven-consecutive starts; marks the second-longest streak of his career…is 1-2, 6.27 ERA (33.0 IP, 23 ER) with eight walks, 36 strikeouts and a .317 (44- for-139) opponent batting average in that span.

TWO STARTS AGO: Did not factor into the decision on August 27 vs. Texas, a 13-inning, 7-6 Twins’ victory at Target Field…pitched 4.0 innings and allowed five runs on five hits (2 HR), with one walk and four strikeouts…worked a 1-2-3 first inning…allowed solo home run to J.P. Martínez in the second inning…yielded his first career grand slam to Jonah Heim in the fourth inning…relieved by Dallas Keuchel, who pitched 5.0 scoreless innings…the Twins tied the game in the ninth inning on an RBI single by Donovan Solano off Aroldis Chapman…Emilio Pagán entered in the 12th inning and yielded a sacrifice fly to Corey Seager…the Twins walked off the game in the 13th inning after a bases-loaded walk issued to Michael A. Taylor by Jonathan Hernández.

AGAINST CINCINNATI: Facing the Reds for the second time in his career…last faced Cincinnati on June 22, 2021 at Target Field; did not factor into the decision after pitching 4.1 innings and allowing four runs on six hits (1 HR), with two walks and two strikeouts…pitched scoreless first and second innings…surrendered a solo home run to Tucker Barnhart to lead off the third inning…loaded the bases in the fifth inning after allowing two singles and issuing a walk…yielded a two-run double to Jesse Winker…replaced by Tyler Duffey who allowed an RBI single to Eugenio Suárez (run charged to Ober).

INTERLEAGUE PLAY: Making his eighth Interleague start of the season…is 3-1, 3.49 ERA (38.2 IP, 15 ER) with 11 walks, 31 strikeouts and a .224 (32-for-143) opponent batting average in his previous seven starts; owns the 10th-lowest batting average in Interleague Play among American League pitchers (min. 7 GS)…is 3-1, 3.83 ERA (47.0 IP, 20 ER) with 14 walks and 39 strikeouts in nine career Interleague starts…took his only loss on May 22 vs. San Francisco after pitching 5.0 innings and allowing four runs on three hits (1 HR) with three walks and two strikeouts.

BACK TO THE ROAD: Ober is making his 11th road start of 2023 today…Twins have won six of his 10 road starts this year, with Ober going 5-3, 3.83 ERA (56.1 IP, 24 ER) with nine walks,63 strikeouts and five quality starts…is 2-3, 3.53 ERA (71.1 IP, 28 ER) with 17 walks and 63 strikeouts in 13 home starts this season. Has seen more success at Target Field than on the road in his career…is 6-4, 3.70 ERA (143.1 IP, 59 ER) with 34 walks and 140 strikeouts in 28 career home starts…in 26 road starts, he is 6-8, 3.80 ERA (132.2 IP, 56 ER) with 22 walks and 133 strikeouts. Making his first career start in Great American Ball Park, marks the 14th opposing ballpark he has pitched in since his major league debut on May 18, 2021 vs. Chicago-AL…is 3-3, 3.45 ERA (62.2 IP, 24 ER) with 13 walks and 67 strikeouts when pitching in an opposing ballpark for the first time.

LEFT AND RIGHT: Left-handed hitters are batting .237 (59-for-249) with 16 walks and 55 strikeouts against Ober this season…right-handed hitters are hitting .252 (59-for-234) with 10 walks and 71 strikeouts…righties went 4-for-13 with one home run (Elvis Andrus), two RBI and five strikeouts in his last start on September 15 at Chicago-AL, while lefties went 1-for-7 with one strikeout…in his career, left-handed hitters are batting .257/.314/.406 with 113 strikeouts against Ober…righties are hitting .236/.264/.453 with 160 strikeouts.

ARSENAL: Ober has used a four-pitch mix in his 23 starts of the 2023 season, per Baseball Savant… mostly uses his slider against righties while relying on his changeup and curveball against lefties… recorded four of his six strikeouts on his fastball in his last start on Septmber 15 at Chicago-AL… also allowed a home run on a fastball for the 11th time this season..here’s a look at his repertoire:

PITCH (AVG. MPH) PCT. (#, vs. RHB/LHB) RESULTS
4-Seam Fastball (91.3)………. 45.9% (941 pitches, 437/504)…. .246 (51-for-207), 11 2B, 11 HR, 58 K
Changeup (83.6)……………….. 26.5% (543 pitches, 203/340)… .250 (37-for-148), 5 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR, 35 K
Slider (81.1)……………………… 20.3% (416 pitches, 309/107)….. .258 (24-for-93), 7 2B, 5 HR, 29 K
Curveball (77.6)………………….. 7.2% (148 pitches, 38/110)……………….. .171 (6-for-35), 1 2B, 4 K

Despite a .246 opponent batting average on his fastball, he has an xBA of .215, the fourth lowest in the American League (min. 200 PA)…the .031 point difference is the sixth largest in baseball. His .243 opponent batting average across all of his secondary pitches (changeup, slider and curveball) is the 17th lowest in the American League (min. 250 PA).

WALK WITH ME: Despite owning a career-high-tying 5.0 walk percentage this season, Ober ranks in the 92nd percentile across baseball and first on the Twins pitching staff. Ober has issued 37 walks since the beginning of last season, the second fewest among any pitcher in the majors (min. 175.0 IP), trailing SF’s Ross Stripling (33)…is averaging 1.81 walks-per-9.0 innings in that span, 10th fewest in the majors (min. 175.0 IP). Enters today with a career 4.88 strikeout-to-walk ratio (273 K, 56 BB), second highest in Twins history (1961-present, min. 250.0 IP), behind Phil Hughes (5.71).

ACROSS THE RIVER: In his five starts with Triple-A St. Paul this season, Ober went 2-1, 2.38 ERA (22.2 IP, 6 ER) with six walks and 25 strikeouts…in his last start with the Saints on September 9, Ober did not factor into the decision in a 4-3 St. Paul defeat at Louisville; pitched 5.0 innings and allowed one run on three hits with three strikeouts…yielded a sacrifice fly to Matt Reynolds in the second inning.

CINCINNATI REDS NOTES:

TODAY’S GAME

  • Is David Bell’s 700th game as Reds manager (330-369, .472). Is Game 3 (1-1) of a 3-game series vs Bobby Nightengale’s first-place Twins and Game 3 (1-1) of a 7-day, 6-game homestand that includes tomorrow’s off day followed by a weekend series vs the Pirates. Following this homestand, the Reds will finish the season with a 5-game road trip to Cle’s Progressive Field (2g) and StL’s Busch Stadium (off day, 3g).

SERIES NOTES

  • The Reds are 17-16 all-time vs the Twins, including 5-5 at Great American Ball Park. A 2-1 series win in April 2018 snapped a streak in which the Reds had lost 9 consecutive interleague road series of at least 3 games, dating back to September 2013. With a 7-2 win at Target Field on 9/25/20, the Reds clinched their most recent Postseason berth, their first since 2013. During that 2020 COVID-19 season, the Reds were the only road team to win a series at Target Field, where the Twins finished with the best home record in the Major Leagues at 24-7.

ROTATION

  • Rookie pitchers have made 55 starts for the Reds, including 13 of the Reds’ 18 games in September…barring weather complications, rookies are projected to start 19 of the Reds’ 27 games in September/October. LHP Brandon Williamson (21gs), who began the season at Class AAA Louisville, is 0-1, 9.00 in 2 starts in September. LHP Andrew Abbott (19gs), who began the season at Class AA Chattanooga, is 0-1, 5.79 in 3 starts in September. RHP Connor Phillips (3gs), who began the season at Class AA Chattanooga, is 1-0, 5.74 in September. RHP Lyon Richardson (4gs), who began the season at Class A Daytona, went 0-1, 8.68 in 2 starts in September. RHP Carson Spiers (2gs), who began the season at Class AA Chattanooga, went 0-1, 9.00 in 2 starts and 1 relief appearance in September. RHP Fernando Cruz (2gs), who last year at age 33 made his Major League debut with 14 apps, started Tue’s 7-0 loss vs Min. Richardson, Abbott, Spiers, Williamson and Phillips made their Major
    League debuts this season, along with fellow starter RHP Levi Stoudt (2gs), who began the season at Class AAA Louisville.

ROSTER NOTES

  • 65 players have appeared in at least 1 game for the Reds, the most of any team in the Major Leagues this season and 1 player shy of the single-season club record established in 2022. 40 pitchers, including position players C Luke Maile (4 times) and IF Jason Vosler (twice), have appeared in at least 1 game for the Reds, a new single-season club record (38 pitchers, 2022). 17 pitchers have started at least 1 game for the Reds, tying the single-season club record (2003, 2022)…17 starters tie the Dodgers for most in the National League…the Athletics lead the Major Leagues with 23 starters. The Reds have 9 rookies on today’s roster. RHP Fernando Cruz, IF Elly De La Cruz, IF Christian EncarnacionStrand, IF Noelvi Marte, IF/OF Spencer Steer, LHP Andrew Abbott, RHP Daniel Duarte, RHP Connor Phillips and LHP Brandon Williamson. Had a season-high 12 rookies on the 27-player roster for the 8/23 day/night doubleheader at LAA. 16 Reds players made their Major League debuts this season, the most of any team in the majors…listed below in the order in which they debuted: RHP Casey Legumina, RHP Levi Stoudt, IF Matt McLain, LHP Brandon Williamson, RHP Eduardo Salazar, OF TJ Hopkins, LHP Andrew Abbott, IF Elly De La Cruz, RHP Ricky Karcher, RHP Randy Wynne, RHP Jake Wong, IF Christian Encarnacion-Strand, RHP Lyon Richardson, IF Noelvi Marte, RHP Carson Spiers, RHP Connor Phillips. 23 rookies played in at least 1 game for the Reds, the most of any team in the Major Leagues and tied for fourth-most in club history (26 in 1909, 25 in 2016, 24 in 1914 & 2017, 23 in 2022)…courtesy @EliasSports.

LET THE KIDS PLAY

  • With 58 HR the Reds have established a new franchise record for home runs in a season by rookies (Spencer Steer 22, Matt McLain 16, Elly De La Cruz 11, Christian Encarnacion-Strand 8, Noelvi Marte 1)…the 2008 team recorded 54 home runs by rookies (Joey Votto 24, Jay Bruce 21, Chris Dickerson 6, Ryan Hanigan 2, Paul Janish 1). The Reds are the first team in Major League history with 3 rookies, in a single season, with at least 10 HR & 10 stolen bases each (Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Spencer Steer). For the first time since 1890, when Cincinnati joined the NL, 3 Reds rookies have produced at least 10 HR. On 8/22 at LAA, in his 64th career game, Elly De La Cruz recorded his 20th stolen base to become the fastest player since 1900 to accumulate at least 10 HR and at least 20 steals…Barry Bonds did it in his 65th career appearance, just ahead of Reds rookies Chris Sabo (66g) and Gary Redus (67g)…courtesy @EliasSports. Elly De La Cruz is the only Major League player since RBI became an official statistic in 1920 to produce in his first 80 career games at least 79 hits, 11 HR, 36 RBI and 25 stolen bases…courtesy @EliasSports. Elly De La Cruz and Spencer Steer on 7/4 at Wsh became the first set of rookie teammates in Major League history to finish in the same game 4-for-4 with at least 1 RBI (since RBI became an official statistic in 1920)…courtesy @EliasSports. IF Matt McLain (5/22-5/28) and IF Elly De La Cruz (6/19-6/25) each earned National League Player of the Week awards, McLain in the second week of his career and De La Cruz in his third week.

Today’s Pitcher – #21 Hunter Greene, RHP

  • This afternoon is making his third start since a 9-day stint on the COVID-19 injured list (9/1-9/9)…will be his first career appearance vs the Twins. Was confirmed with COVID-19 following his start on 8/30…remained isolated in San Francisco for 5 days before returning to Cincinnati on 9/5…came off the COVID-19 injured list just prior to his start on 9/10 vs StL. In his 7-1 win on 9/10 vs StL recorded his seventh career start of at least 6.0 innings while allowing 2 hits or fewer…4 Reds pitchers held the Cardinals to 1 hit, an RBI-single off Greene by Andrew Knizner in the fourth inning. His 7 starts of at least 6.0 innings and no more than 2 hits allowed are the most by a Reds pitcher in his first 42 career starts. In Fri’s 5-3 win at NYM took a no-hitter into the sixth inning before allowing a 3-run HR to Pete Alonso that tied the game at 3-3. Has made 5 starts since a 62-day stint on the injured list because of right hip pain (6/19-8/19). In those 5 starts went 2-2, 6.08 (23.2ip, 23h, 19r, 16er, 14bb, 29k, 6hr, .240baa). Missed a start on 6/6 vs LAD because of stiffness in his right hip…after he skipped that start went 1-0, 3.97 in 2 more apps before he went on the IL on 6/19. In his last 5 starts before the injury went 2-1, 2.97 (30.1ip, 17h, 10er, 14bb, 41k, .163baa). From 8/1-8/15 made 4 rehabilitation starts for the ACL Reds (1gs, 2ip, 1h, 0r, 0bb, 3k) and Louisville (3gs, 12ip, 6h, 5r, 4er, 7bb, 12k, 2hr). Has been charged with a team-high 4 pitch timer violations, most recently on 5/10 vs NYM (Pete Alonso walked).
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