Monday, December 23, 2024
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MLB Preview: Kansas City Royals (40-84) at Chicago Cubs (62-59)

KANSAS CITY ROYALS NOTES:

NAIL-BITER ON THE NORTH SIDE: The Royals won a 4-3 decision at Wrigley Field yesterday to begin this 9-game, 10-day road trip, overcoming a 3-2 deficit on Bobby Witt Jr.’s go-ahead, 2-run homer in the 6th inning…that proved to be enough run support for Cole Ragans, who allowed 3 runs in 6.0 innings with 9 strikeouts, improving to 2-1 with a 2.51 ERA (8 ER in 28.2 IP) and 36 strikeouts (11.3 K/9) in 5 starts with the Royals…the Royals bullpen, which allowed 24 runs (21 ER) in 31.2 innings on the most recent 6-game homestand, held the Cubs scoreless on 2 hits over 3.0 innings, including Carlos Hernández’s 2nd career save.

ON THE MEND: First baseman Nick Pratto went 1-for-4 last night as the designated hitter in his 2nd rehab game with Triple-A Omaha…Pratto has missed the team’s last 20 games on the Injured List with a left groin strain.

CLOSE CALLS: Yesterday’s 4-3 win marked Kansas City’s 6th straight game decided by 2 runs or fewer, a stretch in which 4 of the 6 games have been decided by 1 run…the Royals are just 2-4 during this 6-game run, which is their longest of games decided by 2 runs or fewer since April 12-21 of last season, when they played 7 straight.

The Royals are an even 16-16 in 1-run games this season, which is the 6th-best record in the American League behind Baltimore (22-11), Los Angeles (18-14), Toronto (20-17), Detroit (16-15) and Houston (17-16).

The Royals are 21-34 (.382) in games decided by 2 runs or fewer, which is the 3rd-worst record in the Majors, ahead of only Oakland (21-36) and San Diego (19-35)…they are 5-18 in games decided by exactly 2 runs, and their 18 such losses are 2 more than the Angels and Padres for the most in the Majors this year.

The Royals haven’t played a game decided by more than 2 runs since Aug. 11 vs. St. Louis, when they won 12-8, and they haven’t lost a game decided by more than 2 runs since Aug. 7 at Fenway Park, a 6-2 defeat.

ROAD WORK: The Royals continue a 9-game, 10-day road trip to mark their last of a trio of three-city trips this season…they’re playing 3 day games at Wrigley Field this weekend—all 1:20 p.m. CT starts—then travel west for a 3-game set in Oakland beginning Monday night…after an off day next Thursday, the Royals will close out the road trip with a 3-game series next weekend in Seattle…the Royals are 17-44 (.279) on the road but with a win today, they would clinch their first road series victory since May 15-17 in San Diego, where they took 2 of 3 from the Padres…the Royals are winless in 12 road series since, including 10 losses and two splits.

AFTERNOON DELIGHT: After playing 9 consecutive night games before Thursday’s series finale vs. Seattle, today’s 1:20 p.m. CT start in Chicago marks the Royals 3rd day game in a run of 4 straight through tomorrow… today is the Royals 51st day game of the season and they’re scheduled for 65 matinees this season, which would mark the 2nd most in club history behind only last season, when they played 69 matinees.

The Royals are 18-32 (.360) in day games but are 15-19 (.441) in their last 34 after starting 3-13 (.188).

The Royals are batting .249 with 56 homers in 50 day games and .241 with 65 homers in 74 night games.

INTERLEAGUE INTRIGUE: The Royals and Cubs are meeting this weekend for the fifth time in nine seasons since 2015, after meeting only six times over previous 18 seasons, from when Interleague play was instituted in 1997 through 2014…the Royals last played the Cubs in 2021, when they swept them in 3 games at Wrigley Field from Aug. 20-22, marking their first sweep of the Cubs in franchise history…the Royals have now won 5 straight games over the Cubs dating back to 2020, a stretch in which they’ve outscored the Cubs 36-10 (+26) while allowing no more than 3 runs in any game…they’re now 15-17 all-time vs. the Cubs, including 8-10 in Chicago.

The Royals are 16-25 in Interleague play this season, but have won 8 of their last 11 games since July 1.

Salvador Perez is Kansas City’s all-time leader in Interleague play in hits (211), HR (38) and RBI (120).

Kansas City is playing 14 of its 28 games in the month of August vs. National League opponents.

GETTING OFFENSIVE: Over the last 20 games since July 28, Kansas City’s offense leads the American League in several offensive categories, including hits (210), total bases (345), batting average (.300), slugging percentage (.492) and OPS (.831)…they are tied with the Astros for the AL lead in runs per game (5.8) and are tied for 2nd in extra-base hits (70) and home runs (29), 1 shy of the Astros (30)…the Royals lead the Majors since July 28 with 32 steals in 20 games, 10 more than the Diamondbacks and Nationals (22 each).

Since the start of the last trip, MJ Melendez has hit safely in 12 of his last 13 games with an at-bat, a stretch in which he’s batting .400 (20-for-50) with 9 extra-base hits and a 1.194 OPS…his season took a turn for the better at the All-Star break, and in 32 games since, he’s batting .308 (37-for-120) with 6 HR and an .893 OPS, after hitting .206 (63-for-306) with 6 HR and a .622 OPS in 84 games before the break.

BOBBY BASEBALL: Bobby Witt Jr. leads the Majors in his last 19 games since July 28 with 16 extra-base hits, 67 total bases, a .420 batting average and .827 slugging percentage…he ranks 2nd in the league during that time with 34 hits, 27 RBI and a 1.287 OPS and is tied for 3rd with 8 home runs…during this 19-game run, Witt Jr. has 10 multi-hit efforts, 3 games with 4 hits, 2 grand slams, a 6-RBI game and an inside-the-park home run.

Yesterday’s game-winning HR in the 6th was Witt Jr.’s 24th of the season and 22nd as a shortstop, breaking a tie with Jay Bell (1997) for the most in a single season by a player at that position in Royals history…his 22 HR as a shortstop are also tied with Francisco Lindor for the most in the Majors this year.

Through 124 team games—and with 38 games left—Witt Jr. is on pace for 31 homers an 44 stolen bases, a combination that has been matched only four times in Major League history, by Bobby Bonds in 1969, Eric Davis in 1987, Barry Bonds in 1990 and most recently by Álex Rodríguez in 1998…he’s 6 HR shy of becoming the first player with 30 homers and 30 steals in Royals history, and he would be the Majors’ first primary shortstop to accomplish that feat since Hanley Ramírez had 33 HR and 35 steals in 2008.

Bobby ranks 2nd in the Majors with 13 Outs Above Average on defense, trailing Dansby Swanson (14).

In 66 games since June 1, Witt Jr. is batting .321 with 14 HR and a .925 OPS, and leads the AL with 85 hits.

He ranks 4th in MLB with 34 steals behind Ronald Acuña Jr. (55), Esteury Ruiz (48) & Corbin Carroll (37).

TODAY’S STARTERS: RHP BRADY SINGER (8-8, 4.91)

BRADY SINGER is making his team-high 25th start of the season and 88th of his career today vs. the Cubs…it’s his 2nd career start vs. the Cubs and 1st since 2020… Singer is in his fourth season in the Majors and was selected by Kansas City in the 1st round (18th overall) of the 2018 First-Year Player Draft out of the Univ. of Florida.

Among players drafted in the 1st round in 2018, Singer’s 6.8 bWAR ranks 3rd, trailing the Cubs Nico Hoerner (10.4) and Rays Shane McClanahan (8.4).

TWO-HIT WONDER: Singer did not figure into the decision of Monday night’s 7-6, walk-off win vs. Seattle at Kauffman Stadium, in which he allowed just 2 runs on 2
hits and 1 walk over 7.1 innings, with 8 strikeouts…he retired the first 14 batters before Cade Marlowe drew a 4-pitch walk with 2 outs in the 5th, and did not allow a hit to his first 21 batters, before Dominic Canzone’s 2-out single in the 7th…with 1 out in the 8th, he surrendered a double to Mike Ford and plunked Dylan Moore before exiting in favor of Carlos Hernández, who allowed a single and a bases-clearing double by Julio Rodríguez…the Mariners scored 2 runs in the top of the 9th to erase Kansas City’s 5-0 lead, but the Royals scored a pair in the bottom half to win.

The Royals have supported Singer with at least 5 runs in 5 of his last 8 starts.

I’M STILL STANDING: Following a breakout season in 2022, Brady has struggled through ups and downs this year, as he’s been charged with at least 4 earned runs in 10 of his 24 starts, something that happened in only 5 of his 24 starts last season… the Royals, predictably, are 2-8 in games that he allows at least 4 earned runs…but on the flip side, he’s held opponents to 3 earned runs or fewer in his other 14 starts, in which the Royals are 10-4…after going 2-4 with an 8.82 ERA (33 ER in 33.2 IP) and 7 home runs allowed in his 1st 7 starts of the season, Singer is 6-4 with a 3.62 ERA (41 ER in 102.0 IP) with only 6 homers allowed (0.5 HR/9) in his last 17 starts.

CHANGE OF TUNE: Brady has thrown 45 changeups in 6 starts since the All-Star break, which have accounted for 7.6% of his pitch count during that time…he’s 3-0 with a 2.85 ERA (13 ER in 41.0 IP) over those 6 starts, and his changeup has helped keep left-handed batters off balance, as he’s held them to a .129 average (12-for-93)… in 18 starts before the break, Singer threw 88 changeups, which accounted for 5.4% of his pitch count…he went 5-8 with a 5.80 ERA (61 ER in 94.2 IP) during that time, and left handers hit him to the tune of a .292 average (64-for-219) and .862 OPS.

Brady’s .179 opponents’ average (26-for-145) since the All-Star break ranks 2nd in the American League behind Tyler Glasnow (.174) and ranks 7th in the Majors.

In addition to increasing his changeup usage, Singer recently added a 4-seam fastball to his arsenal…according to Brooks Baseball, he’s thrown 43 of them in his last 3 starts, accounting for 14.2% of his pitches…in those 3 starts, Singer is 2-0 with a 2.05 ERA (5 ER in 22.0 IP) and .133 opponents’ average (10-for-75).

SONG OF THE SOUTH(PAWS): Opponents have stacked their lineups with lefthanded batters vs. Singer, who has been mostly a two-pitch pitcher, as his sinker and slider account for 91.8% of his pitches this season…of the 582 batters Singer has faced, 351 of them (60.3%) have been left handers, which is the highest rate in the Majors (min. 500 BF)…as noted above, his increased changeup usage in 6 starts since the break has helped him hold left handers to a .129 average (12-for-93) and .402 OPS… ninety one pitchers have faced at least 50 left handers since the break, and only Corbin Burnes has held them to a lower average (.068) than Singer’s mark of .129.

WALK THIS WAY: Brady has pitched at least 5.0 innings without issuing a walk in 15 of his 48 starts since last season, which trails only George Kirby (17), Aaron Nola and Jameson Taillon (16 each) for the most in the Majors during that time…but on the flip side, Singer has issued multiple walks in 14 of his 24 starts this season, which are 6 more than his total of multi-walk starts from all of last season, when he made 24 starts…he’s walked 41 in 135.2 innings this year for a 2.7 BB/9, already 6 more than his walk total in 153.1 innings last season (35), when he had a career-best 2.1 BB/9.

CALL ME MAYBE: In 47 starts since his recall on May 17 of last year, Brady has induced a called strike on 895 of 4,595 pitches (19.5%), tied for 2nd most in the Majors behind Logan Webb (944)…since his 2020 debut season, Singer’s called-strike rate of 20.3% ranks 2nd in the Majors (min. 5,000 pitches), trailing Adam Wainwright (20.9%).

CAN’T TOUCH THIS: Singer has recorded 458 strikeouts in 481.2 innings since his 2020 debut for an 8.6 K/9, which is the best rate in Royals history among pitchers
who’ve started at least 70 games, ahead of Ian Kennedy (8.4), Jakob Junis (8.1) and Danny Duffy (8.1)…his 458 strikeouts are tied with Royals Hall of Famer Steve Busby for the most by a Royal through 90 career appearances…to take the lead through 91 outings, Singer would need 7 strikeouts today to pass Busby’s total of 464.

INTERLEAGUE INTERLUDE: Singer’s only previous appearance vs. the Cubs came in his 3rd career start on Aug. 4, 2020 here at Wrigley Field, where he suffered his 1st career loss after allowing 4 runs on 5 hits in 5.0 innings, with 8 strikeouts…he went 0-2 vs. National League teams during his rookie season, but in 13 Interleague starts since, he’s 8-1 with a 3.10 ERA (27 ER in 78.1 IP)… he hasn’t lost to a National League team since April 14 vs. Atlanta, and has held opponents to 2 earned runs or fewer in all 6 starts since, in which he’s 5-0.

Brady is 2-1 with a 4.50 ERA (14 ER in 28.0 IP) in 5 career starts in National League parks, and his only loss came here at Wrigley Field in 2020.

ON THE ROAD AGAIN: Singer is 3-4 with a 6.52 ERA (36 ER in 49.2 IP) in 9 road starts this season, where his ERA is more than 2.5 points higher than it is at Kauffman Stadium, where he’s 5-4 in 15 starts with a 3.98 ERA (38 ER in 86.0 IP)…he won his most recent road start on Aug. 8 at Fenway Park, where he allowed 3 runs on 5 hits in 6.2 innings to mark his 1st road victory since May 16 in San Diego, snapping an 0-3 drought over 4 starts in between.

CHICAGO CUBS NOTES:

Cubs vs. Royals
The Cubs and Royals meet for a three-game set at Wrigley Field … this is the third time in the last four seasons Kansas City has visited the Friendly Confines … in 2020, the Cubs went 2-2 against the Royals in Chicago and were 1-1 in Kansas City … in 2021, the Cubs were swept in a three-game at home

SATURDAY AT THE PARK: The Chicago Cubs today play the second of three games against the Kansas City Royals after dropping yesterday’s series opener, 4-3 … the Cubs fell to 14-15 in one-run games this season … this is the fourth of a five-game homestand that started with a two-game series split against the Chicago White Sox … following this series, the Cubs depart on a seven-game sojourn through Detroit (3 games starting Monday) and Pittsburgh (4 games beginning Thursday).

Today marks the second (0-1) of 13-straight gamedays through Aug. 30 … the Cubs had three off days in an eight-day span through Aug. 17.

The Cubs are 6-5 in their last 11 games, 9-6 in their last 15 and 20-9 in their last 29 contests since July 18 … following play on July 20, the Cubs sat 7.0-games out of a wild-card spot and 8.5-games back of the division lead …the club enters today 1.0-game back of the third wild card spot and 3.0-games back of division-leading Milwaukee.

This is the 10th game (4-5) in a stretch that sees Chicago play 13 of 18 games on the road through Aug. 27.

The Cubs +63 run differential ranks fourth in the N.L. behind the Braves (+212), the Dodgers (+139) and the Padres (+66).

MAN OF STEELE: Cubs southpaw Justin Steele today makes his 23rd start of the season, one shy of his career-high 24 starts in 2022 … his 13 victories this season are tied for second-most in the majors, trailing only Atlanta’s Spencer Strider (14).

Steele’s 2.79 season ERA (39 ER/126.0 IP) ranks second in the N.L. and fourth in the majors … San Diego’s Blake Snell leads with a 2.65 mark.

Steele, with 120 strikeouts against 28 walks this season, is one of just three N.L. hurlers to reach 120 punchouts with 28 or fewer walks … he joins Miami’s Braxton Garrett (21 BB/126 SO) and San Francisco’s Logan Webb (26/157).

WHILE THE ‘PEN IS NORMALLY MIGHTIER: Cubs hitters have a .334 OBP against relief pitchers, the sixth-best mark in the majors, while their .737 OPS against relief arms is tied for eighth … Christopher Morel, who on Wednesday delivered a three-run walk-off homer off White Sox closer Gregory Santos, is hitting .298 (39-for-131) with a .949 OPS against relievers.

Nico Hoerner has a .330 average (60-for-182) and a .928 OPS against relievers this season … the .330 average ranks fourth among qualified hitters.

BURNING UP BASEPATHS: Nico Hoerner on Tuesday recorded his 30th stolen base of the season, the first Cubs second baseman to reach 30 steals since Eric Young Sr. stole 31 bags back in 2001 … the previous Cub to reach 30 swipes in a campaign was Tony Campana, who had 30 in 2012.

Chicago’s 111 stolen bases are its most since swiping 121 bags in 2006.

COMFORTS OF HOME: Chicago has won 11 of 16 games at Wrigley Field starting with July 18’s victory over the Nationals … prior to this 11-5 run at home, the Cubs went 2-9 at the Friendly Confines from June 18-July 17.

Chicago in its last 15 home games since July 18 has batted .298 (162-for-544) with 116 runs scored, 27 home runs, a .376 on-base percentage and a .526 slugging mark … Cubs pitching in this span has posted a 4.38 ERA (70 ER/144.0 IP) with 54 walks and 146 strikeouts.

‘PENNING SOME THOUGHTS: The Cubs bullpen has posted a 3.90 season ERA (186 ER/429.1 IP), the sixth-best mark in the N.L., while its 429.1 innings pitched are third-fewest in the N.L. … just Philadelphia (409.2 IP) and Milwaukee (418.1 IP) have needed fewer innings from its bullpens.

In his last 31 outings since May 28, Michael Fulmer has posted a 1.60 ERA (6 ER/33.2 IP) and a 1.04 WHIP, issuing 16 walks while striking out 37.

Adbert Alzolay has converted his last 12 save chances since July 5 … the 12-straight converted save opportunities are the most by a Cub since Craig Kimbrel converted 16 consecutive save chances May 18-July 25, 2021.

INTERLEAGUE INTERLUDE: Today is the seventh of 11-straight games against the American League, a stretch that started with series in Toronto (2-1) and at home vs.
the White Sox (1-1) … following this three-game set vs. the Royals the Cubs head to Detroit for three games against the Tigers.

Chicago is 6-4 in its last 10 interleague contests since July 15 and is 21-20 against the A.L. this season … the last season in which Chicago had a winning record against the A.L. was in 2020 (12-8).

NICE WORK BY NICO: Nico Hoerner has reached base in 28 of 31 games since the AllStar break, including a current 15-game on-base streak … Hoerner’s 190 total bases
pace the club this season.

Hoerner leads the team in hits (133) and runs scored (71) … his 30 stolen bases are fourth in the N.L. and his 133 hits are tied for sixth.

YOU BETTER BELLI-EVE IT: Cody Bellinger, July’s N.L. Player of the Month, this season is batting .323 (110-for-341) with 20 doubles, one triple, 18 homers, 59 RBI and 17 stolen bases … Bellinger and Atlanta’s Ronald Acuña Jr. are the only major leaguers to have at least a .323 average, 18 home runs and 17 stolen bases this season.

SEEING DOUBLE: Six of Yan Gomes’ last 11 hits have been doubles, including one that snapped an 0-for-17 hitless streak Aug. 8 at the Mets … since July 20, Gomes is tied with the Dodgers Freddie Freeman for third in the majors with 10 doubles.

Jeimer Candelario is second in the N.L. with 35 doubles between the Nationals and Cubs this season, trailing only the Dodgers Freddie Freeman (44).

Starting Pitcher – #35 LHP Justin Steele (13-3, 2.79)
Last Time Out
Justin received a no decision Aug. 12 in Toronto (3 ER/5.0 IP) … has allowed three earned runs or fewer in 11-straight starts since May 31, going 7-1 with a 2.80 ERA (19 ER/61.0 IP) during the run … struck out at least seven while walking none for the third time in his career (last, Aug. 10, 2022 vs. Washington) … has not lost in five-straight starts since July 16.

Date Opp. Result IP H R ER BB SO PC-S Left
8/12 @TOR ND, 5-4 5.0 6 3 3 0 7 84-54 4-3
2023 Splits and Season Notes
W-L ERA G GS IP H R ER BB SO
Home 9-2 2.63 13 13 72.0 72 30 21 18 66
Road 4-1 3.00 9 9 54.0 48 20 18 10 54
AVG vs. LHB: .247 (23-for-93) / AVG vs. RHB: .248 (97-for-391)

Justin is scheduled to make his 23rd start of the 2023 season today, his 14th at Wrigley Field … has posted a 2.38 ERA (43 ER/162.2 IP) since July 22, 2022, the lowest ERA in the majors during the run (min. 29 GS) … has not suffered a loss in five-straight starts dating to July 16 … his 12 starts of 6.0-plus IP while allowing two or fewer earned runs are tied for the seventh-most in the N.L. … his 13 wins are tied for the second-most in the majors, while his 2.79 ERA (39 ER/126.0 IP) is the fourth-lowest in the majors among qualified starters … since the beginning of 2022, has allowed three runs or fewer in 21 of his 27 starts at Wrigley Field (2.70 ERA) … is 5-4 with a 3.05 ERA (20 ER/59.0 IP) in 13 career interleague games (11 starts), including 4-2 with a 2.70 ERA (13 ER/43.1 IP) in eight starts in 2023.

July 21 vs. St. Louis, recorded his 10th win of the season, the first time in his career that he has reached double-digit wins.

Earned his first career All-Star nod and pitched a scoreless fifth inning, allowing one hit with one strikeout in the N.L.’s 3-2 victory.

Started the Cubs’ first game in London, June 24 vs. St. Louis, earning the win (1 ER/6.0 IP).

Posted a 53.0-inning stretch without allowing a home run from April 14-June 17, which was the longest active streak in the majors.

Left his start May 31 vs. Tampa Bay after 3.0 perfect innings with left forearm tightness … was placed on the injured list June 3 (retroactive to June 1) and was activated June 17.

Had a 17-start streak of allowing three earned runs or fewer at Wrigley Field from April 24, 2022-May 10, 2023 … pitched to a 2.20 ERA (23 ER/94.0 IP) during the run … his 2.20 home ERA during the stretch was the third-lowest in the N.L.

Went eight starts before suffering his first loss of the season May 16 in Houston … allowed a season-high five runs in the outing … at the time of his first loss, was the only pitcher in the N.L. with at least six wins and zero losses.

Allowed two or fewer earned runs in 14-straight starts from July 22, 2022-May 5, 2023, tied for the second-longest stretch in Cubs franchise history (since 1901), behind Jack Taylor’s streak of 15 games June 13-Aug. 14, 1902 (tied with Jake Arrieta, 14 G, 7/30/15-4/4/16).

Went 1-1 with a 2.63 ERA (4 ER/13.2 IP) with 13 strikeouts in four Cactus League starts in 2023 … started and tossed the first 2.0 innings of the Cubs combined no-hitter, March 3 at San Diego.

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