MLB Preview: Minnesota Twins (60-57) at Philadelphia Phillies (64-52)

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MINNESOTA TWINS NOTES:

THE NEXT MOVEMENT: The Twins began their seven-game road-trip with a 3-1 series defeat in Detroit at Comerica Park this week, winning their only game on Monday followed by three-straight losses…tonight, the Twins will begin a three-game series against the Phillies at \Citizens Bank Park through the weekend…the Twins have gone 33-24 at home and 27-33 on the road…they are just 3-8 in their last 11 away from Target Field.

The Twins are 15-11 since the All-Star break, tied for eighth-most wins in baseball.

THINGS FALL APART IN DETROIT: The Twins were shut out by Detroit yesterday afternoon at Comerica Park, losing by a score of 3-0…it marked their second shutout in their last three games…the loss marked their third straight defeat after winning five-straight from August 3-7…Kenta Maeda (3-7) was the starter and loser, allowing one run on three hits in 6.0 innings pitched, his only run allowed being a Riley Greene sixth-inning homer…the offense recorded two hits and walked three times…both hits were singles from Carlos Correa and Christian Vázquez.

TWINS-PHILS, GAME THEORY: The Twins are playing the Phillies for the 22nd, 23rd and 24th time in their history this weekend…they are 11-10 all-time against Philadelphia, going 2-1 at Veterans Stadium in 2002, 1-2 at the Metrodome in 2004, 3-3 at Citizens Bank Park in 2010 & ’19, and 5-4 at Target Field in 2012, ’13 and ’16.

The Twins last series against Philadelphia was the third series of the 2019 season as the Twins went 1-2 in three games at Citizens Bank Park…Jorge Polanco became the 11th Twin to hit for the cycle in the first game of that series on April 5…he finished the game with five hits.

Max Kepler has hit safely in all six career games against the Phillies, hitting .360 (9-for-25) with one double, three home runs, seven RBI and a 1.130 OPS…he homered in all three games when the Twins played here in 2019.

Manager Rocco Baldelli homered three times in nine career games at Citizens Bank Park… his first homer was with the Rays on June 17, 2006, off Scott Mathieson…his second home run was with the Rays on October 27, 2008 in Game 5 of the World Series, off Ryan Madson… his third home run was with the Red Sox on June 14, 2009, off J.A. Happ.

IL-LADELPH HALFLIFE: The Twins have gone 15-14 in Interleague Play this season, going 1-2 at Miami, 1-2 vs. Washington, 2-1 vs. San Diego, 2-1 vs. Chicago-NL, 1-2 at Los Angeles-NL, 1-2 vs. San Francisco, 2-0 vs. Milwaukee, 0-3 at Atlanta, 2-1 at St. Louis and 3-0 vs. Arizona.

The Twins’ most wins against NL opponents came in 2006, when they went 16-2.

After this series, Minnesota’s remaining 2023 IL schedule includes Target Field visits from the Pirates (August 18-20) and Mets (September 8-10)…the Twins will also play road games at Brewers (August 22-23), Reds (September 18-20) and Rockies (September 29-October 1).

Max Kepler has five home runs against NL opponents this season, including one in each of his last three games (all ARI series)…he has 20 career IL home runs, tied with Brian Dozier for fifth most in club history, trailing Torii Hunter (33), Eddie Rosario (23), Joe Mauer (22) and Justin Morneau (21).

EVERYBODY IS A STAR: Kenta Maeda gave the Twins their MLB-best 59th quality start yester- day…Twins starters have combined to go 34-37, 3.83 ERA (661.0 IP, 281 ER) with 164 walks, 725 strikeouts and a .240 opponent batting average…their ERA ranks fifth in all of baseball… below are other Twins starting pitching ranks among the MLB teams:

INNINGS QS BAA BB/9.0 FIP WHIP K’s OPS
MIN – 661.0 MIN – 59 TB – .235 SEA – 2.06 TB – 3.50 SEA – 1.12 MIN -725 TB – .676
HOU – 652.1 SEA – 56 SEA – .235 MIN – 2.23 MIN – 3.66 MIN – 1.16 TOR – 666 SEA – .680
TEX – 643.0 TOR – 55 MIL – .235 SF – 2.24 SEA – 3.81 TB – 1.17 CWS – 662 MIN – .691
SEA – 642.2 SD – 54 MIN – .240 PHI – 2.43 PHI – 3.97 PHI – 1.19 LAA – 648 PHI – .699
TOR – 642.1 HOU – 53 SD – .241 TB – 2.45 MIA – 4.01 MIL – 1.21 MIA – 632 TEX – .706

THE PITCHING POINT: The starters’ 725 strikeouts rank eighth best in club history, five short of their 1963 total of 730 (full list lower right)…they are on pace to strike out a club-record 1,003, which would pass their 1967 mark of 870…additionally, they are pace to record 81 quality starts, which would be their most since having 86 in 2010.

RISING UP: In his last 22 games, since July 17, Max Kepler is hitting .300 (24-for-80) with six doubles, six home runs, 14 RBI, 17 runs scored, four walks, a .337 on-base percentage, a .600 slugging percentage and a .937 OPS.

DON’T FEEL RIGHT: The Twins have faced six left-handed starters since the All-Star break, going 4-2 in those games: Oakland’s Ken Waldichuk (5-4 win on 7/14), Oakland’s JP Sears (5-4 win on 7/16), Kansas City’s Ryan Yarbrough (2-1 loss on 7/30), St. Louis’ Matthew Liberatore (5-3 win on 8/3), Detroit’s Joey Wentz (9-3 win on 8/7) and Detroit’s Eduardo Rodriguez (0-6 loss on 8/8).

In their last six games vs. left-handed pitching, the Twins have an OPS of .841 (.321 OBP/.520 SLG) with seven home runs.

In five games since joining the Twins, Jordan Luplow is hitting .500 (5-for-10) with a 1.183 OPS vs. left-handed pitching…his career OPS vs. lefties is .837 (.650 vs. RHP).

Carlos Correa is hitting .400 (12-for-30) with three doubles, one home run, seven RBI, a .455 on-base percentage, a .600 slugging percentage and a 1.055 OPS in his last 15 games vs. left-handed pitching.

HERE I CCOME: Carlos Correa has hit safely in each of his last six games, one short of matching his season high of seven, done June 8-15…his career high is 16, done in 2019 with Houston…during the current streak, he is hitting .348 (8-for-23) with one double, two home runs, eight RBI and a 1.027 OPS.

From August 11, 2022 to the end of the 2022 season, Correa hit .339 (65-for-192) with nine doubles, nine home runs, 27 RBI and 24 walks, with a .947 OPS.

THE FIRE: The Twins bullpen has an average pitch velocity of 90.3 mph this season, third best in the AL and seventh best in baseball… the Twins ‘pen has thrown 352 fastballs at 99+ mph, fifth-most in baseball; Philadelphia ranks sixth at 341.

The bullpen has a .229 opponent batting average this season, third best in baseball, trailing New York-AL (.217) and Tampa Bay (.223).

YOU GOT ME: On this day in 2008, Ron Gardenhire earned his 600th managerial win in a 4-0 defeat of New York-AL at the Metrodome… Glen Perkins was the starter and winner that day, pitching 8.0 shutout innings with four hits allowed…one of six times that Perkins pitched a career-high 8.0 innings.

STARTING PITCHER – #60 DALLAS KEUCHEL
2023: 0-0, 1.80 ERA CAREER: 101-91, 3.97 ERA

Making his second start for Minnesota and his first road start of 2023…also his 270th appearance (259th start) in his 12th major league season.

Facing Philadelphia for the sixth time in his career and first time since 2019…is 2-2, 2.67 ERA
(30.1 IP, 9 ER) with 11 walks and 17 strikeouts in five previous starts vs. the Phillies.

Signed by Minnesota as minor league free agent on June 22…contract selected from Triple-A St. Paul on August 3…took the place of Joe Ryan (15-day IL) in Twins rotation.

Selected by Houston in seventh round of 2009 First-Year Player Draft; pitched for Astros from 2012-18…also pitched for Atlanta (2019), Chicago-AL (2020-22), Arizona (2022) and Texas (2022)

LAST TIME OUT: Took a no-decision in his Twins debut on August 6 vs. Arizona in Minnesota’s 5-3 victory at Target Field; marked his first MLB start since September 2, 2022 at Boston with Texas… pitched 5.0 innings and allowed one run on eight hits, with two walks and no strikeouts…allowed five singles and issued two walks in his first 4.0 innings pitched but did not allow a run, benefitting from two groundball double plays…allowed one run on three hits in the top of the fifth as Tommy Pham recorded an RBI on a fielder’s choice…stranded two runners in scoring position in the fifth, inducing an inning-ending groundout from Lourdes Gurriel Jr….was relieved by Dylan Floro to start the sixth inning with Minnesota trailing 1-0; Twins rallied for two runs in the sixth and three runs in the ninth, with Matt Wallner’s two-run, walk-off homer sealing the comeback win and series sweep.

Became first left-handed starter for Minnesota since Devin Smeltzer on July 15, 2022 vs. Chicago-AL, breaking an MLB-high 180-game streak of right-handed starters for the Twins.

Became first Twins pitcher to record zero strikeouts in an outing of at least 5.0 innings since Dylan Bundy on August 24, 2022 at Houston (also 5.0 IP, 0 K).

Allowed four stolen bases, a single-game career high…marked the most stolen bases allowed by a Minnesota pitcher since Phil Hughes also allowed four on September 24, 2014 vs. Arizona.

PHILLY SPECIAL: Facing Philadelphia for the sixth time in his career…is 2-2, 2.67 ERA (30.1 IP, 9 ER) with 11 walks and 17 strikeouts in five previous starts against the Phillies…his 2.67 ERA against Philadelphia is his lowest against any opponent in his career (min. 5 GS)…last faced the Phillies on September 17, 2019, taking the loss in the Braves’ 5-4 defeat at Truist Park; pitched 5.0 innings and allowed five runs on eight hits (2 HR), with one walk and two strikeouts.

Is 11-7, 3.03 ERA (184.0 IP, 62 ER) with 56 walks and 154 strikeouts in 31 career Interleague appearances (30 starts).

NEW ROAD: Making his first road start of 2023 tonight…in six road starts last year, he went 1-5, 13.70 ERA (23.0 IP, 35 ER) with 12 walks and 18 strikeouts…went 1-4, 6.45 ERA (37.2 IP, 27 ER) with 19 walks and 27 strikeouts in eight home starts in 2022…is 48-54, 4.62 ERA (769.1 IP, 395 ER) with 249 walks and 576 strikeouts in 133 career road appearances (130 starts)…in 136 career home appearances (128 starts), he is 53-37, 3.37 ERA (823.2 IP, 308 ER) with 242 walks and 642 strikeouts.

Making his third career start at Citizens Bank Park tonight…earned the win in his last start here on September 11, 2019, a 3-1 Atlanta victory; allowed one run on three hits in 6.0 innings pitched, with four walks and 12 strikeouts…is 1-0, 1.38 ERA (13.0 IP, 2 ER) with four walks and 12 strikeouts in two previous starts at Philadelphia.

LEFT/RIGHT: Right-handed hitters went 5-for-17 with one double, one RBI and one walk off Keuchel in his last start on August 6 vs. Arizona…lefties went 3-for-4 with one walk…owns better splits against left-handed hitters than righties in his career, holding lefties to a .240 (309-for-1286) batting average and a .641 OPS…righties are batting .266 (1293-for-4852) with a .739 OPS off Keuchel in his career.

THE ARSENAL: Used a four-pitch mix in his first MLB start of 2023 on August 6 vs. Arizona…leaned on his sinker and changeup, throwing the two pitches a combined 64.8 percent of the time…also used his cutter 24.3 percent of the time after utilizing the pitch only 15.3 percent of the time in 2022… threw his slider exclusively to left-handed hitters:

PITCH (AVG. MPH) PCT. (#, vs. RHB/LHB) RESULTS
Sinker (87.7) …………………..35.1% (26 pitches, 19/7) ………………………………… .286 (2-for-7), 1 2B Changeup (80.8)……………..29.7% (22 pitches, 20/2) ………………………………………. .500 (5-for-10)
Cutter (85.2) …………………..24.3% (18 pitches, 15/3) ………………………………………… .333 (1-for-3)
Slider (79.6)……………………..10.8% (8 pitches, 0/8) ………………………………………….. .000 (0-for-1)

Averaged 87.7 mph on his sinker on August 6 vs. Arizona, a 0.5-mph increase from his average sinker in 2022 (87.2) and 0.1 mph slower than his average sinker in 2021 (87.8).

GROUND GAME: Keuchel owns a career groundball percentage of 58.5, the highest in baseball since 2012 (min. 1,000.0 IP)…has a groundball-to-flyball ratio of 2.88, also the highest in baseball dur- ing that span…has induced 195 double play groundballs in his career, the second most since 2012, trailing only former Twin and current Baltimore Oriole Kyle Gibson (197).

SOUTHPAW STUFF: Keuchel’s career numbers rank near the top of the leaderboards among left-handed pitchers in baseball since 2012 (min. 1,000.0 IP):

STATISTIC KEUCHEL’S #s LHP RANK SINCE ’12
Groundball Percentage…………………… 58.5 ……………………………………………………………………. 1st
Wins……………………………………………. 101 ………………………………………………………………….. T-7th
Pitches-per-Inning ………………………… 15.9 ……………………………………………………………………. 8th
Innings Pitched…………………………… 1593.0 ………………………………………………………………….. 8th
Strikeouts……………………………………. 1218 ………………………………………………………………….. 13th

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES NOTES:

GAME #116 RECAP: The Phillies defeated the Washington Nationals, 6-2, as they took three of four games from their division rival … Starter Aaron Nola (ND) went 5.0 innings and allowed 1 run on 5 hits with 1 walk and 6 strikeouts … Down 1-0 in the 6th, Trea Turner blasted a 2-run homer to put the Phils in front 2-1 … In the 7th, Nick Castellanos and J.T. Realmuto both hit 2-run homers as the Phillies stretched the lead to 6-1 … Washington scored a run in the 8th to make it 6-2, but Craig Kimbrel pitched a scoreless 9th to secure the game and series for the Phils.

REMEMBER THE FIGHTINS: Last night’s win moved the Phillies to a season-best 12 games over the .500 mark at 64-52 … The Phils are 39-20 over their last 59 games (since 6/3) and their .661 winning percentage since June 3rd ranks 2nd in MLB behind only ATL (39-17, .696 win %) – a win tonight would match Philadelphia’s 60-game stretch last season that started also started on June 3 (6/3-8/11), when they went 40-20 in Rob Thomson’s first 60 games as manager … The Phils opened the 2023 season on the road and went 1-5 in six games through TEX (0-3) and NYY (1-2) … Since then (4/7-current), they are 63-47 with a .573 winning percentage that ranks 3rd in the National League behind only ATL (.623) and LAD (.589) and 6th in MLB.

AMERICA’S TEAM: The Phillies have won 17 of their last 21 games against the American League (.810 win % since 5/7) – they have outscored the AL 101-61 in those 21 games (+40 run differential) … With a 24-14 record overall against the AL this season, the Phillies have the best Interleague winning percentage of any National League team at .632 and the 2nd-best Interleague record in MLB behind only TOR (22-10 vs NL, .688 win %) … The Phillies have a 9-4 record in series play against the AL and have won nine of their last 11 series dating back to April 18-19 at CWS … Earlier this year, the Phils had a franchise-record 12-game winning streak against the AL (5/7-7/6), which included wins over BOS (1), TOR (2), DET (3), at OAK (3) and at TB (3) … The streak is tied for the 2nd-longest Interleague winning streak in MLB history (13 is the record) and was the longest since 2017 when the Dodgers won 13 straight against the AL.

ON THE PLUS SIDE: The Phillies currently have seven players who qualify for the batting title who sport an OPS+ of 105 or greater (league average is 100): Brandon Marsh (125 OPS+), Bryce Harper (122), Alec Bohm (114), Bryson Stott (112), Nick Castellanos (112), J.T. Realmuto (107) and Kyle Schwarber (105) – Philadelphia’s seven different players with an OPS+ of 105 or greater is the most of any team in MLB this year – the Dodgers and Cardinals are T-2nd in MLB with six different players … Philadelphia’s seven players with an OPS+ of 105 or better would tie a franchise record that was set all the way back in 1892 when they also had seven players: Roger Connor (166 OPS+), Ed Delahanty (157), Billy Hamilton (152), Sam Thompson (144), Jack Clements (127), Bill Hallman (116) and Lave Cross (108) … Over the last 50 years (1973-2023), only nine teams have had seven players qualify for the batting title and post an OPS+ of 105 or better: 1974 Reds, 1978 Brewers, 1982 Angels, 2003 Red Sox, 2005 Yankees, 2005 Guardians, 2009 Yankees, 2011 Angels and 2022 Mets.

PHILLY SPECIAL: Shortstop Trea Turner has hit safely in all 7 games this homestand (8/4-current) – in those 7 games he is slashing .370/.393/.741 with a 1.134 OPS, 6 extra-base hits (4 2B, 2 HR), 4 runs scored and 8 RBI in 28 plate appearances … Over his last 39 games at CBP (168 PA, since 5/6), Turner has posted an .820 OPS with 23 runs scored, 18 extra-base hits (10 2B, 3B, 7 HR), 25 RBI, 12 walks and 9 stolen bases.

ARMS RACE: Over the last 59 games (since 6/3), the Phillies’ starting rotation has gone 23-12 with a 3.23 ERA (127 ER, 354.1 IP) with 342 strikeouts to 87 walks (3.93 SO/BB ratio) … During this current run, they have the lowest OPS among all starting staffs in MLB at .661 (next: SD, .687), the lowest opponents OBP at .279 (next: SEA, .287), the lowest opponents SLG at .382 (next: SD, .384), the lowest WHIP at 1.10 (next: MIL, 1.14) and the most innings pitched at 354.1 (next: MIN, 335.1) – their 3.23 ERA ranks 2nd in MLB (best: SD, 3.18) and their .227 opponents AVG ranks 2nd (best: MIL, .226) … The staff has gone at least 6.0 innings in 38 of those 59 games (64%), at least 7.0 innings in 17 of those 59 games (29%) and of their 59 starts, 31 have been quality starts (53%) … Since June 3, the Phillies bullpen has tossed the fewest innings of any relief corps in MLB at 183.2 (29th is MIN at 187.0 and most is SF at 281.1) but have the 3rd-lowest ERA in the sport at 3.33 … Philadelphia’s starters and relievers have combined for 17.2 fWAR this season which leads MLB (next: SEA, 15.6) and is four full wins clear of the next closest NL club (MIA, 13.2 fWAR) … Philadelphia’s starters lead MLB in fWAR at 12.8 and the bullpen ranks 5th at 4.3.

BALL GOES BOOM: Through the first seven games of this homestand (since 8/4), the Phillies have hit 18 home runs which are tied for their most home runs in a seven-game span at home since at least 1901 … The other instance came last season, essentially during the same period of time, when they hit 18 homers over a seven-game span at CBP from July 26-Aug. 9 … Overall this month (both home and road), the Phillies are slashing .265/.336/.512 with an .848 OPS in 378 combined plate appearances (10 G) … Among all clubs in MLB in August, they rank 1st in home runs (21), 3rd in XBH (42), 4th in runs per game (6.20) & SLG and 5th in OPS.

HATS OFF TO YOU THOMS: Since Rob Thomson was named manager of the Phillies on June 3, 2022, the Phils are 31 games over .500 at 129-98 with a .568 winning % that ranks 6th in MLB, trailing only ATL (.664), LAD (.644), HOU (.612), BAL (.589) and SEA (.578) … The Phillies are 68-41 all-time under Thomson at CBP and their .624 winning percentage at home since June 3, 2002 ranks 4th in MLB behind ATL (.709), LAD (.679) and TB (.643).

TAI’S TACO TRUCK: Today, Taijuan Walker will team up with Turning Points for Children to serve free tacos to fans who make a donation at his “Tai’s Tacos” truck, which will be located outside the 3rd Base Gate from 4:30-6:30pm … The event is aimed to help children in the foster care system … Walker, who will match any monies raised at the event, has partnered with different foster organizations since 2018.

TONIGHT’S STARTER – CRISTOPHER SÁNCHEZ • LHP #61
2023: 0-3, 3.44 ERA Career: 3-5, 4.46 ERA

TONIGHT’S START:

  • Watch Me WHIP: Since being recalled on 6/17, Sánchez’s 0.90 WHIP is the best in the major leagues (min. 45.0 IP)
  • Left in Charge: Sánchez holds the 12th best ERA (2.66) among left-handers with at least 7 starts this season (best: Max Fried, 2.50)
  • Walk the Line: Sánchez ranks in the 94th percentile in walk % and his 1.55 BB/9.0 IP is the 8th in the NL and 16th in MLB (min. 40.0 IP) … Sánchez has only issued 9 walks in 10 starts this season … He is one of 11 Phillies starters to walk 9 or fewer batters in their first 10 starts of the season and he is the first since Zach Eflin walked 7 in his first 10 starts in 2021
  • Change It Up: Per Statcast, Sánchez has struck out 26 batters with his changeup this season and has recorded a 36.2% whiff % with it, up from a 29.8% whiff % in 2022 … His downward movement of 43.6 inches (with gravity) on his changeup is the best in baseball (min. 150 changeups thrown) … In his last outing, 5 of his 7 strikeouts came by way of the changeup and all of them were swings and misses
  • Reach for the Stars: Per Statcast, Sánchez’s average release extension (where the ball is released relative to the rubber) of 6.9 feet puts him in the 90th percentile among all ML pitchers … As a result, his sinker velocity, which averages at 91.7 mph, has a perceived velocity of 92.8 mph
  • Multidimensional: Sánchez has thrown more than 2.0 IP in 24 of his 32 career ML appearances … He has a 3.72 ERA (40 ER, 96.2 IP) in appearances of 2.0 IP or more
  • vs AL Central: 0-0, 10.80 ERA (6 ER, 5.0 IP) in 1 start
  • Pitch Usage: Sinker (48.9%), Changeup (30.5%), Slider (20.6%)

HOME:

  • 2023: 0-3, 4.58 ERA (19 ER, 37.1 IP) in 7 starts
  • Career: 2-4, 4.52 ERA (34 ER, 67.2 IP) in 20 games (11 starts)

2023 Season:

  • Carried a no-hitter through five innings before being pulled from the game on 7/30 … It was the longest no-hit bid in his career
  • On 7/24, Sánchez tossed 7.0 IP for the first time in his ML career and set career-highs in strikeouts (8) and pitches (92)
  • Was recalled from Lehigh Valley (AAA) prior to his start on 6/17 at OAK … Sánchez is in his 2nd stint with the Phillies this season … He was reinstated from the 15-day IL (left triceps strain) prior to his start on 4/22 and was optioned postgame