Monday, December 23, 2024

MLB Preview: Washington Nationals (49-63) at Philadelphia Phillies (61-51) – Double-Header

WASHINGTON NATIONALS NOTES:

OPPONENT – PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
The Nationals and Phillies will face off 13 times in 2023 (6 in D.C., 7 in PHI)…Bryce Harper (2012-18), Trea Turner (2015-21) and Kyle Schwarber (2021) played for the Nationals…Phillies hitting coach Kevin Long served the same role with the Nationals from 2018-21…MASN’s Kevin Frandsen spent two seasons (2012-13) with the Phillies…Jake Alu is from Princeton, N.J. and attended Princeton Day School.

LET THE GOOD TIMES ROLL
The Washington Nationals begin a four-game set in Philadelphia today with a doubleheader after being rained out last night…The Nationals won, 6-3 on Sunday in Cincinnati to finish off their first three-game road sweep since August 23-25, 2019…It also gave the Nationals their first four-game winning streak since June 27-30, 2021.

  • CJ Abrams (4-for-5, 2B, HR, RBI, 2 R, 2 SB) and Lane Thomas (2-for-4, 2B, HR, 3 RBI, R) led the offense after they kicked off the game with back-to-back homers on the first two pitches of the game.
  • The Nationals are 0-1-2 (sweeps-swept-split) in doubleheaders in 2023 and are 16-9-35 (sweepsswept-splits) in doubleheaders and 65-55 (.542) when playing twice in a single day since baseball returned to Washington in 2005.

STATUS CHECK
The Nationals have won four in a row, six of their last eight, 11 of their last 16, 15 of their last 24 and are 21-16 (.568) since June 24…This stretch includes series victories over the San Diego Padres, Seattle Mariners, Philadelphia Phillies, Texas Rangers, San Francisco Giants, Colorado Rockies, Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds.

  • A win today would give the Nationals their first five-game winning streak since June 19-24, 2021, a streak that included a two-game series sweep in Philadelphia.

LANE THOMAS: GREAT AMERICAN, GOOD CITIZEN
Lane Thomas is 7-for-13 (.538) with two doubles, three home runs, eight RBI, two stolen bases and six runs scored in his last three games, with multi-hit games in all three.

  • Over the last two seasons, Thomas is 14-for-27 (.519) with three doubles, six home runs, 12 RBI, a walk, two stolen bases and 11 runs scored with multi-hit games in all six games at Great American Ballpark.
  • In his last six games at Citizens Bank Park, he is 11-for-26 (.423) with a double, a triple, four RBI, a walk, a stolen base and three runs scored with multi-hit games in five of the six.
  • Thomas ranks in the National League in hits (4th, 128), doubles (T5th, 28), average (8th, .290), and runs (8th, 76)…He leads the National League (T1st in MLB) with a career-high 11 outfield assists.

BORN TO RUN
CJ Abrams is tied for third in the National League with 27 stolen bases…He has stolen 24 consecutive bases without being caught, the longest single-season streak in Nationals history (2005-pres.) and now tied for the longest streak overall in Nationals history (2005-pres.) with Roger Bernadina (24 SB, June 9, 2010 to June 24, 2011) according to the Elias Sports Bureau…It is the longest active streak in MLB…Abrams was last caught stealing on May 3 vs. Chicago (NL).

  • Since being moved to the leadoff spot on July 7, Abrams is hitting .330 with four doubles, a triple, four homers, 10 RBI, seven walks, two hit by pitch, 16 stolen bases and 22 runs scored…He’s hit safely in 20 of the 25 and has reached safely in 21 of the 25.

NOBODY SHUTS OUT THE NATS
The Nationals have not been shut out since April 19 vs. Baltimore, a streak of 94 straight games…It is the longest single-season streak in Nationals history (2005-pres.) and the longest streak in MLB this season.

  • The next longest single-season streak is held by the Seattle Mariners (97 G, June 12-Oct. 3, 2021).

BACKSTOP BATS
Some notes on Washington’s catchers:

  • Riley Adams has produced multi-hit efforts in five of his last six starts and in six of his last eight…During this eight-game stretch, he is 13-for-31 (.419) with six doubles, a homer, six RBI and two walks.
  • Keibert Ruiz is hitting .324 (23-for-71) with six doubles, two homers, nine RBI, seven walks, one stolen base and eight runs scored over his last 20 games…He’s hit safely in 16 of the 20 games.

OK, KYLE
Kyle Finnegan has six saves, five holds and has pitched to a 0.74 ERA (2 ER/24.1 IP) with a .152 opponents’ average (12-for-79) in his last 22 appearances.

  • He’s set a new career-high and is eighth in the NL with 17 saves this season.
  • Finnegan surrendered seven earned runs and three home runs in his first three outings…Since the next outing on April 7 at Colorado, he has pitched to a 1.54 ERA (8 ER/46.2 IP) with 47 strikeouts and three home runs allowed in 44 games.

BULLISH ON THE ‘PEN
The Nationals bullpen has thrown 14.1 straight scoreless innings since Aug. 2 (.149 opponents AVG., 16 strikeouts and five walks…The Nationals have the best bullpen ERA in the NL (3rd in MLB) since July 21 (2.39, 14 ER/52.2 IP)…Washington relievers are 6-1 with 50 strikeouts and just 17 walks in those 16 games.

  • Over his last 10 games, Jordan Weems has not allowed a run in 9.1 innings, has held opponents to a .176 batting average (6-for-34), has walked just two hitters and struck out 11.
  • In his last four games, Andrés Machado is 2-0 with 3.2 scoreless and hitless innings…He has stranded all five inherited runners he’s been bequeathed in those games.

STARTING PITCHER – #32 TREVOR WILLIAMS
Veteran right-handed starter signed a two-year contract with the Nationals in Dec. 2022…From 2018-21, Williams was exclusively a starter, but he transitioned to a versatile swingman in 2021 and 2022…He is 35-41 with a 4.33 ERA in 118 career starts and 3-3 with a 3.84 ERA in 41 relief outings…Was a second-round pick of the Miami Marlins in 2013 but was traded to Pittsburgh in 2015 while pitching in the Arizona Fall League.

LAST START
Allowed five earned runs on seven hits with four walks and two strikeouts in 4.0 innings on July 30 against the New York Mets…He took the loss in the Nationals’ 5-2 defeat.

vs. PHILADELPHIA
Faces the Phillies for the third time this season…In his last start against Philadelphia, he allowed three earned runs on six hits, walked two and struck out one in 5.0 innings to earn the win at Citizens Bank Park on July 2.

POST-BREAK SUCCESS
Williams has pitched to a career 3.77 ERA in 75 games (50 starts) after the All-Star break…That ERA is almost a run lower than his overall career ERA of 4.33.

START ME UP
Tonight marks Williams’ 23rd start of the season…Because of his time as a reliever in 2021 and 2022, as well as the shortened season in 2020, his 23 starts are his most since he started 26 games for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2019.

STRONG START
Williams opened the 2023 season going 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA (8 ER/21.1 IP) with 13 strikeouts and just four walks in his first four starts of the season…After allowing four earned runs on April 27 at New York (NL), he tossed 5.1 innings of four-hit, shutout ball on May 2 vs. Chicago (NL).

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES NOTES:

GAME #112 RECAP: The Phillies defeated the Kansas City Royals, 8-4, as they took two of three games in a weekend set at Citizens Bank Park … Starter Taijuan Walker (W, 13-4) went 7.0 innings and allowed 4 runs on 7 hits with 1 walk and 2 strikeouts … Down 3-0 after the top of the 1st, the Phils rallied back and scored 7 runs through the first 5.0 innings – they hit three home runs on the day (Schwarber, Castellanos, Stott) and moved back to a season-best 10 games over .500.

HATS OFF TO YOU THOMS: Since Rob Thomson was named manager of the Phillies on June 3, 2022, the Phils are 29 games over .500 at 126-97 with a .565 winning % that ranks 6th in MLB, trailing only ATL (.664), LAD (.640), HOU (.612), BAL (.593) and SEA (.574) … The Phils have played five doubleheaders under Thomson and their overall record in those games is 7-3 (2 sweeps, 0 times swept, 3 splits).

DOUBLE THE FUN: Today marks the 2,198th doubleheader in Phillies franchise history (503 sweeps, 704 times swept, 990 splits) and the 37th doubleheader at Citizens Bank Park (10 sweeps, 10 times swept, 16 splits) … Today will be Philadelphia’s third doubleheader this season – they split an April DH against the White Sox in Chicago (4/18) and last month swept the Padres in a DH at CBP (7/15).

BALL GO BOOM: Over the last five games, the Phillies have scored 34 runs and are averaging 6.8 runs per game … In 197 combined plate appearances, they are slashing .289/.345/.511 with an .856 OPS … They have hit nine home runs in those five games including three homers in each of their last two games … This is the second time this season the Phillies have hit three or more homers in consecutive games (other: 4/22-23) – the last time the Phillies did so in three straight games was Aug. 5-7, last season.

NATITUDE PROBLEM: Since 7/29/21 (G2), the Phillies have won 27 of their last 33 games against the Nats (.818 win %) and have outscored them 238-137 (+101 run differential) – that includes an 11-3 record at CBP and a 16-3 record at Nats Park … In that span, the Phillies are slashing .292/.369/.551 with a .920 OPS – they have hit 72 home runs (2.2 HR per game) and have scored 238 runs (7.2 runs per game) – with RISP they are slashing .310/.413/.538 with a .951 OPS in 352 plate appearances.

CY YOUNG IN HIS SIGHTS: Right-hander Zack Wheeler leads all MLB pitchers in fWAR this season at 4.3 – Among National League starters, Zac Gallen ranks 2nd at 4.0, Spencer Strider 3rd at 3.7, Logan Webb 4th at 3.3 and Justin Steele 5th at 3.1 … Wheeler is tied with Strider for the National League lead in Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) at 2.94 and his Expected ERA (xERA) of 3.27 ranks 2nd in the NL, trailing only Strider (3.08) – Wheeler’s 3.71 ERA ranks 11th among all qualified NL
starters but the 0.77 difference between his ERA and FIP is the 2nd-largest gap of any NL pitcher, behind only Strider (3.94 ERA, 2.94 FIP) … Wheeler’s 5.96 SO/BB ratio (149 SO/25 BB) would be a career-best (previous: 5.37 in 2021) and ranks 2nd among NL pitchers – his 4.6% walk rate ranks 3rd in the NL and his 27.4% strikeout rate ranks 6th … The Phillies are 14-8 in Wheeler’s first 22 starts this year (.636 win %) and have won eight of his last 10 (since 6/8) … Wheeler has nine starts this season of 6.0+ IP and 1 ER or none allowed which ranks T-1st in the NL.

BEDLAM AT THE BANK: Through 51 games at CBP, the Phillies are averaging 39,474 in attendance per game which ranks 6th among all clubs in MLB behind only the Dodgers (48,153), Cardinals (41,733), Yankees (41,516), Padres (40,855) and Braves (39,510) … Of Philadelphia’s first 51 games at home, 25 have been sellouts (49%) and 40 have been over 35,000 (78%) … Among all clubs in MLB, the Phillies have the largest year-to-year increase in attendance per game this season at +11,060 (up from 28,414 per game through 51 home games in 2022) – CLE ranks 2nd at +7,358 per game … Per Baseball Reference, the last time a team saw a +10,000 spike in attendance from one year to the next was in 2010 when the Twins moved to Target Field from the Metrodome and saw a +10,332 spike from 2009 … For reference, the Phillies saw a +12,224 spike in attendance in 2004 when CBP was opened (40,125 per game) after averaging 27,901 per game during the final year at Veterans Stadium in 2003.

REMEMBER THE FIGHTINS: The Phillies are 36-19 over their last 55 games (since 6/3) and their .655 winning percentage since June 3rd ranks 2nd in MLB behind only ATL (37-16, .698 win %) … The Phils opened the 2023 season on the road and went 1-5 in six games through TEX (0-3) and NYY (1-2) … Since then (4/7-current), they are 60-46 with a .566 winning percentage that ranks 3rd in the National League behind only ATL (.621) and LAD (.577) and 7th in MLB.

YOU’RE SO GOLDEN: Second baseman Bryson Stott has played in 897.1 of the Phillies total 996.1 innings in the field this season … His 897.1 innings at second base rank 2nd in the National League behind only Ozzie Albies (976.0) … Stott leads all National League second baseman in Defensive Runs Saved with 7 (among qualified 2B) and he ranks 2nd with 9 Outs Above Average behind only CHI’s Nico Hoerner (10 OAA) … He has made four errors in 427 total chances this season and his .991 fielding percentage ranks 2nd among NL second baseman with at least 400 chances behind Luis Arraez (.993 fielding %) … Stott set a franchise record earlier this season when he began his career with 84 consecutive games at second base without an error, eclipsing the previous mark held by Tomas Perez (57 G) from 2001-02 … Manny Trillo is the only Phillies second baseman to ever take home a Gold Glove, doing so three times (1979, 1981, 1982).

PHILLY SPECIAL: Over his last three games, Trea Turner is 4-for-12 with 2 doubles, a home run and 5 RBI … Over his last 35 games at Citizens Bank Park (5/6-current), Turner has posted a .783 OPS with 20 runs scored, 15 extra-base hits (8 2B, 3B, 6 HR), 22 RBI and 11 walks.

HARP ON IT: Over his last 12 games, two-time National League MVP Bryce Harper is slashing .333/.400/.542 with a .942 OPS in 55 plate appearances (7/25-current) … Harper has 4 doubles, 2 home runs and 7 RBI during this stretch … At Citizens Bank Park this season, Harper is slashing .341/.428/.496 with a .924 OPS and 22 walks to 26 strikeouts – Since July 1 at home (15 G), Harper is slashing .407/.459/.667 (1.126 OPS) with 8 extra-base hits (5 2B, 3 HR), 10 RBI and 6 walks to 7 strikeouts … Per Statcast, Harper has a .489 xSLG this season which is 61 points higher than his actual SLG entering play today of .428 – that 61 point difference is the 11th-largest of any qualified player in MLB this season.

TODAY’S STARTER – ZACK WHEELER • RHP #45
2023: 8-5, 3.71 ERA Career: 82-62, 3.45 ERA

LAST START: 8/2 at MIA: ND, 6.0 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, BB, 4 SO … Wheeler vs Garrett … The Phillies lost a tough one to the Marlins, 9-8, in extra-innings on South Beach … The Phillies blew three saves for only the second time since saves became official in 1969 – Brandon Marsh hit a 2 run home run in the 10th to put the Phils ahead but the Marlins rallied with 2 runs in the bottom half – the Phillies scored again in the 11th, but the Marlins tied it in their half – the Phils were held scoreless in the 12th before Miami won it on a walk-off single

TODAY’S START:

  • Quality Control: Wheeler ranks T-5th in the National League with 14 quality starts … He has earned one in 5 straight outings and it is only the 7th time in his career he has had at least a 5-game streak with a quality start and first time since 5/18-6/16/22 … He is one of 25 ML pitchers to do so this year and only 1 of 4 pitchers with an active streak of at least 5 quality starts (others: Kershaw, Burnes and Musgrove)
  • In the Zone: In his last 6 starts (37.2 IP), Wheeler has walked only 3 batters … It is the first time in his career that he has walked 3 or fewer batters in a 6-game span … On the year, Wheeler’s 4.6% walk rate ranks 9th among pitchers with at least 100.0 IP … It is currently the lowest walk rate of his career (previous best: 5.4%, 2021)
  • Dog Days: In July, Wheeler had the following NL ranks: 1st in SO/BB (19.50), 2nd in BB/9.0 IP (0.57) and FIP (2.66), 3rd in OPP OBP (.236), 4th in WHIP (0.57), 5th in strikeouts (39), 11th in OPP AVG (.223), 12th in IP (31.2) and 13th in OPP SLG (.397)
  • Zack With a K: Wheeler had 39 strikeouts in the month of July (5 starts) … It’s the 20th time in his career he’s had at least 39 strikeouts in a 5-game span and the first time since recording 43 K’s from 5/18-6/11/22 … Wheeler currently ranks 8th in the NL in strikeouts (149), with everyone in front of him having at least 1
    more start
  • All About the Ratio: Wheeler’s SO/BB rate of 5.96 is 2nd in the NL and 5th best in MLB … It is currently the best SO/BB rate of any season in his career (2nd best: 2021, 5.37)
  • Whiffs: Wheeler is running a whiff rate of 30% or greater on three different pitches this year: Sweeper (44.5%), 4-seam Fastball (30.1%) and Curveball (31%)
  • The Gift That Keeps on Giving: Since he signed with the Phillies as a free agent (since 2020), Wheeler ranks 1st among all pitchers in MLB in fWAR at 17.6 and he leads Corbin Burnes who ranks 2nd at 16.8, Kevin Gausman ranks 3rd (16.1), Aaron Nola 4th (15.0) and Sandy Alcantara 5th (13.3)
  • Statcast Rankings: 98th percentile in extension, 94th percentile in walk rate, 90th percentile in average exit velocity, 89th percentile in fastball spin, 84th percentile in barrel rate, 82nd percentile in curve spin, 81st percentile in fastball velocity, 80th percentile in chase rate and 76th percentile in SO rate
  • Pitch Usage: 4-seam fastball (41.7%), Sinker (17.4%), Slider (16%), Sweeper (12.9%), Curveball (11.7%), Changeup (0.3%)

HOME:

  • 2023: 2-2, 4.03 ERA (27 ER, 60.1 IP) in 10 starts
  • Career: 38-33, 3.42 ERA (254 ER, 668.0 IP) in 108 starts

2023 SEASON:

  • Took a no-hitter into the 8th inning on 6/8 vs DET which was the longest no-hit bid of his career (previous: 6.1 innings on 7/30/13 vs MIA)
  • Reached 10 years of ML service on Sunday (6/11) vs LAD
  • Recorded his 18th career double-digit strikeout game and 10th as a Phillie on 5/27 at ATL
  • Racked up a career-high 23 swings and misses on 4/23 vs COL
  • Made his 200th career start on 4/23 vs COL

TONIGHT’S STARTER – RANGER SUÁREZ • LHP #55
2023: 2-5, 4.01 ERA Career: 27-20, 3.30 ERA

LAST START: 8/1 at MIA: ND, 6.1 IP, 10 H, ER, 2 BB, 3 SO … Suárez vs Alcantara … The Phillies won a wild one, 3-1 over the Marlins on South Beach … Trailing 1-0 in the 9th, Kyle Schwarber walked to lead off the inning – Bryce Harper then doubled to score pinch-runner Jake Cave from 1st base before Nick Castellanos homered to give the Phils a 3-1 lead … Seranthony Domínguez picked up his 1st save of the season

TONIGHT’S START:

  • Hit Me With Your Best Shot: Despite giving up 10 hits in his last start, Suárez only allowed 1 run in 6.1 IP … He is the first ML pitcher this year to allow at least 10 hits while allowing 1 or no runs … Since 2016, Suárez is one of 8 pitchers to have such a game … He became the first Phillies pitcher to do so since Cliff Lee on 4/16/14 vs ATL
  • Ground Level: Suárez’s ground ball % of 52.5% is 7th-highest among all National League pitchers with at least 70.0 IP and his ground ball/fly ball rate of 1.86 is 5th … Since 2021, his 55.7% ground ball % is 4th in MLB and 2nd in the NL (min. 300 IP) … Since Fangraphs began tracking batted ball stats in 2002, Suarez’s career GB % of 55.3% is the best in franchise history (min. 250 IP)
  • Beast In the East: Today marks Suárez’s 25th career start against NL East teams … He has a 3.12 ERA (44 ER, 127.0 IP) in starts against the division and a career ERA of 3.36 … He has earned a quality start in 6 of his last 8 starts against the division and in that stretch has posted a 2.57 ERA (14 ER, 49.0 IP)
  • Southpaw Starters: Among NL left-handers with at least 10 starts, Suárez ranks 8th in FIP (3.81), 10th in ERA (4.22), 11th in OPP SLG (.422) and 13th in OPP OPS (.761)
  • Trouble With the Curve: Suárez has thrown his curveball 264 times in 85.1 IP this season after only throwing it 198 times in 155.1 IP last year … He is holding batters to a .169 average (10-59) with his curveball and has struck out 24 batters with a whiff rate of 36.3% … Among NL pitchers (min. 50 PA), Suárez’s curveball ranks 7th in OPP AVG, 10th in strikeout % (38.1%) and 14th in whiff %
  • Pitch Usage: Sinker (29%), 4-Seam Fastball (20.7%), Curveball (19.1%), Changeup (18.5%), Cutter (12.2%), Slider (0.4%)

HOME:

  • 2023: 0-2, 5.70 ERA (23 ER, 36.1 IP) in 7 starts
  • Career: 14-8, 3 SV, 3.56 ERA (79 ER, 200.0 IP) in 62 games (30 starts)

2023 SEASON:

  • Recorded a 5-game streak with at least 6 IP and 1 or no runs (6/4-27) … It was the 10th time a Phillies Pitcher had done so and the first time since Cole Hamels in 2014
  • Posted a 17.0-inning scoreless streak (6/9-20)
  • Struck out at least 7 batters in a career-high four straight starts (6/9-27)
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