Monday, December 23, 2024
ATS Wins

MLB Preview: Kansas City Royals (36-75) at Philadelphia Phillies (59-51)

KANSAS CITY ROYALS NOTES:

SEVENTH HEAVEN: The Royals scored a 7-5 win in Philadelphia last night to run their win streak to 7 games, the longest active win streak in the Majors and their longest win streak in six years, since they won 9 consecutive games from July 19-28, 2017…trailing 4-2 in the 6th inning, the Royals hung a 4-spot on a second-deck Solo home run by Michael Massey, a game-tying RBI double by Freddy Fermin and a go-ahead, 2-run single by Dairon Blanco, who drove in his 3rd run of the night in the 8th on a squeeze bunt that scored Samad Taylor.

Austin Cox pitched the 9th and induced a game-ending double play by Bryce Harper to earn his 1st save.

Nine of the Royals last 18 wins have been come from behind, including 3 during this 7-game win streak.

WE’RE GOING STREAKING!: The Royals have won 7 consecutive games, during which they’ve outscored opponents 47-26 (+21), including 3 wins over the 1st-place Twins, 3 wins over the Mets (who had won 14 of their previous 23), and a win last night over the Phillies, who had won 34 of their last 52, and currently own the second National League Wild Card spot…according to STATS, the Royals are the first team since the 1907 Cardinals to have a sub-.300 win pct. at least 100 games into the season, and then win 7 consecutive games.

Since the win streak started on July 28, the Royals lead the American League in runs per game (6.7) batting average (.316), on-base percentage (.362), slugging percentage (.518), OPS (.880) and stolen bases (17), are tied for 2nd in extra-base hits (26) and are tied for the 2nd-fewest strikeouts (48).

FOR STARTERS: During Kansas City’s 7-game win streak, its starting pitchers are 5-0 with a 2.59 ERA (12 ER in 41.2 IP), 5 walks (1.1 BB/9) and 36 strikeouts (7.8 K/9)…the Royals starter’s ERA during this stretch (since July 28) leads the American League and ranks 3rd in the Majors behind San Diego (1.18) and San Francisco (
(2.51).

Over the last 5 games, Royals starting pitchers have issued just 1 walk to 122 batters over 31.2 innings.

Royals pitchers have 22 starts of at least 5.0 innings and no walks—including 4 of the last 5 games—which is tied with the Giants and Twins for the 2nd-most such starts in the Majors behind the Mariners (24).

DUAL THREAT: Bobby Witt Jr. has hit safely in all 7 games during Kansas City’s current win streak, a stretch in which he leads the Majors in hits (17) and RBI (15), is tied for the Majors lead in extra-base hits (7), ranks 2nd in slugging percentage (1.031) and OPS (1.577) and 3rd in batting average (.531)…he’s the first player in Major League history to record the combination of 17 hits, 4 HR, 15 RBI and 4 stolen bases in any 7-game span.

Witt Jr. homered last night to mark his 20th of the season, matching his total from his 2022 rookie campaign…in doing so, he became the first player in Major League history with at least 20 homers and 30 steals in each of his first two seasons…in fact, he’s one of four active players with multiple 20-homer, 30-steal seasons at any point in his career, joining Mike Trout (3), Ronald Acuña Jr. (2) and Jose Altuve (2).

Last night marked Bobby’s 10th career game with a homer and a stolen base—and 2nd straight— breaking a tie with Acuña Jr. (9) for the most such games in the Majors since the start of last season… he’s the third player in Royals history to record consecutive games with a HR and a steal, joining Carlos Beltrán from Sept. 26-27, 2001 and Adalberto Mondesi, who did it in 3 straight games from Sept. 10-12, 2020 to match Bobby Abreu (3 games, May 12-15, 2004) for the longest streak in Major League history.

Through 111 team games—and with 51 games remaining—Bobby is on pace for 29 home runs and 46 stolen bases, a combination that has been matched only five times in Major League history, by Mike Trout in 2012, Hanley Ramírez in 2007, Álex Rodríguez in 1998, Barry Bonds in 1990 and Eric Davis in 1987.

Witt Jr.’s 32 steals rank 4th in the Majors in 2023 behind Acuña Jr. (51), Esteury Ruiz (43) and Corbin Carroll (34)…he’s the third player this century with at least 30 steals in each of his first two big league seasons, joining Ichiro Suzuki (2001-02) and Elvis Andrus (2009-10), and his 62 career steals are the most by any player through his first two big league seasons since Billy Hamilton had 69 from 2013-14.

Bobby leads the team in hits (120), HR (20) and RBI (66) as he tries to become the first player to lead the Royals in all three categories since Billy Butler led the team with 192 hits, 29 HR and 107 RBI in 2012.

GETTING OFFENSIVE: The Royals have registered 216 hard hit balls in 20 games since the All-Star break, which ranks tied for 5th in the Majors behind the Orioles (237), Cubs (230), Cardinals (227) and Padres (220).

Maikel Garcia has hit safely in a career-high 8 straight games, during which he’s batting .344 (11-for-32) with 7 RBI…with a hit tonight, he would match Edward Olivares’ 9-game hit streak from April 21-30 for the longest by a Royal this season…Garcia has recorded 35 hard hit balls in 19 games since the All-Star break, which ranks 5th in the Majors and 2nd in the American League behind Gunnar Henderson (36).

Michael Massey is batting .279 (12-for-43) with 5 home runs and 10 RBI in his last 12 games since July 21.

Dairon Blanco had a career-high 3 stolen bases last night and matched a career high with 3 RBI…he’s the first player in Royals history with a 3-RBI, 3-steal game and the fourth player in the last 20 years to turn the trick, joining Jimmy Rollins (Aug. 26, 2008), Álex Rodríguez (Sept. 25, 2009) and Jose Altuve (Sept. 10, 2013)…Blanco has 59 steals in 82 games this season, including 47 at Triple-A and 12 with the Royals.

Since returning from the Injured List on July 18, Olivares is hitting .314 (11-for-35) with 5 doubles in 11 games.

Freddy Fermin leads primary catchers (min. 150 plate appearances) with a .302 batting average (42- for-139), ranks 3rd with a .496 slugging percentage and 4th with an .839 OPS…he’s recorded 6 multihit efforts in his last 9 games, a stretch in which he’s batting .441 (15-for-34) with 5 XBH for a 1.165 OPS.

INTERLEAGUE INTRIGUE: The Royals are playing in Philadelphia this weekend for just the fourth time in franchise history and the first time since 2016…the Royals are 8-8 in the regular season all-time vs. the Phillies, and their 16 games are their fewest vs. any opponent…with a win tonight or tomorrow, the Royals would clinch their first series win over the Phillies since April 5-7, 2013, when they won 2 of 3 here at Citizens Bank Park.

These teams also met in the 1980 World Series, Kansas City’s first of four appearances in the Fall Classic… after losing Games 1 and 2 in Philadelphia, the Royals evened the series with back-to-back wins in Kansas City…but the Phillies rallied to a Game 5 win before clinching the championship in their Game 6 return to Veterans Stadium…Willie Aikens blasted 4 HR including multi-HR efforts in Game 2 and Game 4.

The Royals are 14-22 in Interleague play this season, but have won each of their last 6 games since the start of last month, a stretch in which they’ve outscored opponents 42-18 (+24) vs. the Dodgers (2-0), Mets (3-0) and Phillies (1-0)…it’s their longest win streaks vs. National League teams since they won 7 straight from Aug. 5-19, 2014…the Royals will play 14 of their 28 games in August vs. National League teams, including 6 straight to begin the month vs. the Mets and these Phillies.

The Royals have won two road series this year—both in National League parks—from April 7-9 at San Francisco and May 15-17 at San Diego… they’re 5-5 all-time at Citizens Bank Park—which opened in 2004—and are batting .288 in those 10 games while averaging 5.7 runs per game.

TONIGHT’S STARTERS: RHP ALEC MARSH (0-5, 6.75)
ALEC MARSH is making his 6th career start (7th appearance) tonight and his 1st vs. the Phillies, who will become the third NL opponent he’s faced…he was selected by the Royals in the 2nd round of the 2019 Draft out of Arizona State University.

LOSING STREAK EXTENDED: Marsh made his 5th career start—and 1st against the Guardians—on July 26 in Cleveland, where he suffered his 5th straight loss after yielding 4 runs on 5 hits and 4 walks in 2.2 innings of work…he issued a 1-out walk to Andrés Giménez in the 1st inning, and he promptly swiped second base before José Ramírez sent a 2-run homer 423 ft. to right field, putting the Royals in a 2-0 hole…the Guardians struck again in the 2nd inning, as Steven Kwan hit an RBI single to center which scored Gabriel Arias, who was originally ruled out at home plate, but a Cleveland challenge overturned the call…he allowed three straight batters to reach with 2 outs in the 3rd inning and exited in favor of Jonathan Heasley, who issued a bases-loaded walk to charge another run to Marsh’s final line…Kansas City couldn’t overcome the early deficit and lost, 8-3.

Became the first pitcher in Royals history to lose each of his 1st 5 career outings.

QUICK TRIP TO THE ‘PEN: He pitched out of the bullpen in Tuesday’s 7-6 win over the Mets at Kauffman Stadium, marking his 1st career relief appearance after each of his first 5 outings were starts…he covered a scoreless 6th inning—stranding a 2-out walk—to preserve the 1-1 tie in a game that eventually saw the Royals walk-off in 10 innings.

STRUCKKKKKKKKKKK HIM OUT: Alec made his 3rd career start on July 15 in Game 1 of the Royals split doubleheader vs. the Rays, in which he set career highs in innings pitched (6.0) and strikeouts (11)…his 11 strikeouts marked the most by a Royal since Brady Singer had 12 on July 23, 2022 vs. the Rays…it was the most strikeouts by a Royal within a player’s 1st 3 career outings, breaking the previous mark set by Runelvys Hernández, who had 9 in his 2nd start on July 20, 2002 (Game 1).

Alec became just the sixth American League pitcher in this century to record an 11-strikeout game within his 1st 3 career outings, following Kyle Bradish (May 10, 2022), Shohei Ohtani (April 8, 2018), Chris Archer (Sept. 8, 2012), Matt Moore (Sept. 22, 2011) and Félix Hernández (Aug. 15, 2005).

He has 28 strikeouts in 24.0 innings to start his career (10.5 K/9, 24.8 K%), which are the 4th most by a Royal through 6 career appearances, behind leader Steve Busby, who struck out 32 over his first 6 games from 1972-73…Yordano Ventura holds the club record through 7 career games with 38 strikeouts.

SWING AND A MISS: In just 6 outings (5 starts) this season, Marsh has already recorded 64 swings and misses, including 2 starts with 15 whiffs (July 15 vs. Tampa Bay and July 5 at Minnesota) and 1 start with 14 whiffs (July 21 at the Yankees)…he’s the only Royal this season to record multiple outings with at least 15 swings and misses, as Kris Bubic, Brady Singer and Daniel Lynch IV each have 1 such start apiece.

Alec induced 51 swings and misses in the month of July, which accounted for 11.3% of his total pitches thrown (450)…his 11.3% rate of pitches whiffed on led the Majors last month (min. 400 total pitches), ahead of Gavin Williams (9.8%).

BAD PITCHES OR BAD LUCK?: Alec has surrendered 9 home runs in just 24.0 innings, however those homers have averaged 390 ft., which is the 13th shortest average distance allowed by any American League pitcher this season (min. 9 HR), according to Baseball Savant…he fell victim to the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium on July 21, where he yielded a career-high 3 home runs, which registered at 373 ft. (Franchy Cordero), 361 ft. (Billy McKinney) and 383 ft. (Gleyber Torres).

His 9 home runs allowed through 6 career appearances are just shy of the club record, fewer than only Jim Pittsley’s 10 homers allowed from 1995-97.

NEW KID ON THE BLOCK: On June 30, he became the fourth Royal to make his Major League debut this year, following right-handed pitcher James McArthur on June 28 vs. Cleveland, infielder/outfielder Samad Taylor on June 17 vs. the Angels and left hander Austin Cox on May 4 vs. Baltimore… he became the first Royals pitcher to start in his Major League debut since left hander Angel Zerpa did so on Sept. 30, 2021 vs. the Guardians.

He became the 15th different starting pitcher the Royals have employed this season, and two weeks later, Cole Ragans made his Royals debut on July 15 (G2) vs. Tampa Bay to become the 16th different starter…this is the most different starters by any Royals team since a club-record 17 in 2006.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES NOTES:

GAME #110 RECAP: The Phillies fell to the Kansas City Royals, 7-5, and opened up a 10-game homestand at CBP … Starter Aaron Nola (L, 9-8) allowed 5 runs over 5.1 innings with 1 walk, 8 strikeouts and 2 home runs allowed … The Phillies jumped in front early as Nick Castellanos hit a 2-run homer in the 1st … The Royals tied the game in the 3rd before the Phillies scored twice in the 4th to take a 4-2 lead … Kansas City plated 4 in the 6th and 1 in the 8th and held on for the win.

OH MYLANTA: Over the last 18 games (since 7/16) the Phillies are 9-9 (.500) and have scored 75 runs while also allowing 75 runs (0 run differential) … Of those 18 games, 16 have been decided by two runs or fewer and nine of those 18 have been one run games … All nine of the Phillies wins during this stretch have either needed a save or have been a walk-off – their last win that didn’t require a walk-off or a save was a 9-4 win over the Padres on July 15 … Overall this season, the Phillies are 22-14 in one-run games and their .611 winning percentage ranks 4th in MLB behind MIA (24-9, .686 win%), MIL (20-10, .667 win%) and BAL (20-10, .667 win%).

AMERICA’S TEAM: The Phillies enter play tonight 22-14 in 36 games against the American League this season (.611 win %) … The Phillies have an 8-4 record in series play against the AL and have won eight of their last 10 series dating back to April 18-19 at CWS … Earlier this year, the Phillies had a franchise-record 12-game winning streak against the AL (5/7-7/6) which included wins over BOS (1), TOR (2), DET (3), at OAK (3) and at TB (3) … The streak is tied for the second-longest Interleague winning streak in MLB history (13 is the record) and was the longest since 2017 when the Dodgers won 13 straight against the AL.

DAMAGE CONTROL: Tonight’s starter Cristopher Sanchez, making his 10th start of the season, is currently one of four starting pitchers in MLB (min. 9 GS) running a ground ball rate greater than 50.0% and a walk rate below 5.0% – Sanchez (56.5% ground ball rate/4.3% BB rate) is joined by Zach Eflin (51.8% GB rate/3.5% BB rate), Braxton Garrett (50.2% GB rate/4.1% BB rate) and Logan Webb (59.9% GB rate/4.3% BB rate) … The last Phillies pitcher to make at least 10 starts in a season with a 50.0% ground ball rate and a sub 5.0% walk rate was Hall-of-Famer Roy Halladay in 2011 (51.9% GB rate/3.8% BB rate) … Since being recalled from Lehigh Valley (6/17-current), Sanchez ranks 1st in MLB in WHIP (0.84) and opponents OBP at .238 (min. 40.0 IP) – Gerrit Cole ranks 2nd behind Sanchez in both with a 0.91 WHIP and .247 opponents OBP.

THE COMPANY YOU KEEP: Second baseman Bryson Stott leads the Phillies in bWAR this season at 3.4 … Over the last 50 years (since 1973), four Phillies infielders have put up a 3.4 WAR season at age 25 or younger, with the last being shortstop Jimmy Rollins (4.7 WAR) in 2004 at the age of 25 … Prior to Rollins, Hall of Famer Scott Rolen did so four times from 1997-2000 (4.5 at age 25, 4.7 at age 24, 6.7 at age 23 and 4.5 at age 22) and Hall of Famer Mike Schmidt did so twice from 1974-75 (7.7 at age 25 and 9.8 at age 24) … Among all infielders this season aged 25 or younger, Stott’s 3.4 bWAR leads the National League and ranks T-3rd in MLB (with BAL’s Gunnar Henderson), behind only TB’s Wander Franco (4.8) and TOR’s Bo Bichette (4.2).

BEDLAM AT THE BANK: Through 49 games at CBP, the Phillies are averaging 39,341 in attendance per game which ranks 6th among all clubs in MLB behind only the Dodgers (48,153), Cardinals (41,829), Yankees (41,437), Padres (40,713) and Braves (39,510) … Of Philadelphia’s first 49 games at home, 23 have been sellouts (47%) and 38 have been over 35,000 (78%) … Among all clubs in MLB, the Phillies have the largest year-to-year increase in attendance per game this season at +10,921 (up from 28,420 per game through 49 home games in 2022) – CLE ranks 2nd at +7,247 per game … Per Baseball Reference, the last time a team saw a +10,000 spike in attendance from one year to the next was in 2010 when the Twins moved to Target Field from the Metrodome and saw a +10,332 spike from 2009 … For reference, the Phillies saw a +12,224 spike in attendance in 2004 when CBP was opened (40,125 per game) after averaging 27,901 per game during the final year at Veterans Stadium in 2003.

ARMS RACE: Over the last 53 games (since 6/3), the Phillies’ starting rotation has gone 20-12 with a 3.18 ERA (112 ER, 316.2 IP) with 311 strikeouts to 78 walks (3.99 SO/BB ratio) … During this current run, they have the lowest OPS among all starting staffs in MLB at .667, the lowest opponents AVG at .230, the lowest opponents OBP at .282, the lowest WHIP at 1.11 and the most innings pitched at 316.2 – their 3.18 ERA ranks 2nd in MLB (best: SD, 2.87) and their .385 opponents SLG ranks 3rd (best: SD, .373) … The staff has gone at least 6.0 innings in 35 of those 53 games (66%), at least 7.0 innings in 15 of those 53 games (28%) and of their 53 starts, 29 have been quality starts (55%) … Since June 3, the Phillies bullpen has tossed the fewest innings of any relief corps in MLB at 167.1 (29th is MIN at 171.0 and most is SF at 257.2) but have the 6th-lowest ERA in MLB at 3.36 … Philadelphia’s starters and relievers have combined for 16.3 fWAR this season which leads MLB (next: SEA, 14.6) and is more than three full wins clear of the next closest NL club (ATL, 12.9 fWAR).

REMEMBER THE FIGHTINS: The Phillies have won 34 of their last 53 games (since 6/3) and their .642 winning percentage since June 3rd ranks 2nd in MLB behind only ATL (37-13, .740) … The Phils opened the 2023 season on the road and went 1-5 in six games through TEX (0-3) and NYY (1-2) … Since then (4/7- current), they are 58-46 with a .558 winning percentage that ranks T-3rd in the National League (with SF) behind only ATL (.640) and LAD (.574) and T-7th in MLB.

RISP AND REWARD: Since June 3, the Phillies rank 4th in the National League and 6th in MLB with a .277 AVG with runners in scoring position (129-for-465) and trail BAL (.304 AVG), ATL (.289 AVG), LAD (.284), CHI (.283) and DET (.282) … Philadelphia’s .360 OBP with RISP since June 3rd ranks 5th in MLB, behind LAD (.392), ATL (.372), BAL (.367) and CHI (.360) … Philadelphia’s 129 hits with RISP since June 3rd ranks 3rd in MLB and trails only CHI (144) and LAD (133) … League average since 6/3 with RISP is a .257 AVG/.336 OBP.

HATS OFF TO YOU THOMS: Since Rob Thomson was named manager of the Phillies on June 3, 2022, the Phils are 27 games over .500 at 124-97 with a .561 winning percentage that ranks 6th in MLB, trailing only ATL (.673), LAD (.639), HOU (.613), BAL (.589) and SEA (.570).

TONIGHT’S STARTER – CRISTOPHER SÁNCHEZ • LHP #61
2023: 0-3, 2.98 ERA Career: 3-5, 4.36 ERA

LAST START: 7/30 at PIT: ND, 5.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 3 SO … Sánchez vs Hill … The Phillies fell to the Pittsburgh Pirates, 6-4, in extra innings at PNC Park … The Phils were up 2-0 in the 6th before Bryan Reynolds hit a 2-run home run to tie it – the Phillies took the lead back in the 7th with 2 runs before the Pirates scored in the 7th and 8th to tie the game at 4-4 … In the 10th, the Phils had runners on 1st and 3rd with no outs but could not score – Pittsburgh won the game with a home run in the 10th

TONIGHT’S START:

  • No Hits For You: Sánchez carried a no-hitter through five innings before being pulled from the game in his last outing … It was the longest no-hit bid in his career
  • Watch Me WHIP: Since being recalled on 6/17, Sánchez’s 0.84 WHIP is the best in the major leagues (min. 40.0 IP)
  • Left in Charge: Sánchez holds the 5th best ERA (2.66) among left-handers with at least 7 starts this season (best: Andrew Abbott, 2.35)
  • Walk the Line: Sánchez ranks in the 95th percentile in walk % and his 1.52 BB/9.0 IP is the 6th in the NL and 11th in MLB (min. 40.0 IP) … Sánchez has only issued 8 walks in 9 starts this season
  • Change It Up: Per Statcast, Sánchez has struck out 21 batters with his changeup this season and has recorded a 36.1% whiff % with it, up from a 29.8% whiff % in 2022. His downward movement of 43.6 inches (with gravity) on his changeup is the best in baseball (min. 100 changeups thrown)
  • Reach for the Stars: Per Statcast, Sánchez’s average release extension (where the ball is released relative to the rubber) of 6.9 feet puts him in the 90th percentile among all ML pitchers … As a result, his sinker velocity, which averages at 91.7 mph, has a perceived velocity of 92.8 mph
  • Multidimensional: Sánchez has thrown more than 2.0 IP in 23 of his 31 career ML appearances … He has a 3.34 ERA (34 ER, 91.2 IP) in appearances of 2.0 IP or more • Pitch Usage: Sinker (50.2%), Changeup (29.4%), Slider (20.4%)

2023 Season:

  • Was recalled from Lehigh Valley (AAA) prior to his start on 6/17 at OAK … Sánchez is in his 2nd stint with the Phillies this season … He was reinstated from the 15-day IL (left triceps strain) prior to his start on 4/22 and was optioned postgame
  • On 7/24, Sánchez tossed 7.0 IP for the first time in his ML career and set career-highs in strikeouts (8) and pitches (92)

HOME:

  • 2023: 0-3, 3.62 ERA (13 ER, 32.1 IP) in 6 starts
  • Career: 2-4, 4.02 ERA (28 ER, 62.2 IP) in 19 games (10 starts)
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