Tuesday, December 24, 2024
ATS Wins

MLB Preview: Minnesota Twins (54-53) at St. Louis Cardinals (47-60)

MINNESOTA TWINS NOTES:

THE TWINS: After completing their six-game homestand with a record of 4-2 (3-0 vs. Chica- go-AL and 1-2 vs. Seattle), the Twins began their six-game, seven-day roadtrip by getting swept in three games by the Royals at Kauffman Stadium over the weekend…tonight, the Twins will continue the trip with the first of three against the Cardinals at Busch Stadium through Thursday…the Twins have gone 30-24 at home and 24-29 on the road.

Twins are looking to snap a five-game losing streak, which matches their season long, previously done from June 3-8, when they lost two to Cleveland and were swept in three by Tampa Bay…Minnesota’s last win was last Monday, July 24, a 4-3 win over Seattle.

Of the Twins’ 55 remaining games, they have an opponent winning percentage of .484, the second-lowest strength of schedule.

TWINS CAN’T GET OUT OF KC FAST ENOUGH: The Twins lost to the Royals on Sunday afternoon by a score of 2-1, suffering their fourth sweep of the season…Kenta Maeda (2-6) was the starter and loser, allowing two runs on four hits in 5.0 innings pitched, with two walks and seven strikeouts… the offense recorded seven hits, two from Willi Castro…Matt Wallner hit his fifth home run of the season…Minnesota put two men in scoring position on the afternoon and left six men on base.

IT’S THE FIRST OF THE MONTH: The Twins completed the July portion of their schedule on Sunday, finishing the month with a record of 13-11…below are the offense and pitching comparisons for the first four months:

AVG R H 2B 3B HR BB K OBP SLG OPS
MAR/APR .237 134 228 44 6 38 89 275 .310 .413 .723
MAY .230 122 215 43 1 36 115 299 .324 .394 .718
JUNE .229 95 205 49 1 33 70 275 .292 .396 .688
JULY .256 119 210 46 7 34 84 258 .335 .454 .788
W L S IP H ER HR BB K ERA BAA
MAR/APR 17 12 9 258.2 216 100 27 76 285 3.48 .223
MAY 12 15 3 245.1 207 94 28 94 267 3.45 .227
JUNE 12 15 5 238.0 216 108 31 65 233 4.08 .240
JULY 13 11 6 216.1 198 111 35 62 242 4.62 .243

NOTE: The Twins went 14-14 in August of 2022, as pitchers posted a 3.46 ERA…hitters posted a .700 OPS last August and hit 26 home runs while scoring 117 runs.

ALSO: Edouard Julien’s 1.184 OPS was the highest in Twins history (since 1961) by a rookie during the month of July (minimum 60 AB).

IT’S A MIDWEST THING: Twins and Cardinals are playing each other in the regular season this series for the 34th, 35th and 36th time in their regular season history…they last played the Cardinals for three games here in 2021 as the Twins won just the middle of the three-game series…Twins are 17-16 all-time against St. Louis in the regular season (since 1997) and 9-4 in their last 13…they were 2-7 all-time in the regular season at the old Busch Stadium (1997-2001) and are 6-6 all-time at the new Busch Stadium (2009-23).

Donovan Solano began his professional career in the Cardinals organization, playing in their minor league system from 2005-11…Solano became a free agent after the 2011 season and signed with Miami…Solano is slashing .314/.352/.333 in 16 career games at Busch Stadium.

Byron Buxton recorded his first career hit in this ballpark on June 15, 2015 (2nd career game), tripling off John Lackey…became the fourth Twin to triple for his first major league hit, joining Jorge Polanco (June 27, 2014), Jimmie Hall (April 16, 1963) and Bernie Allen (April 10, 1962).

Carlos Correa hit his first career grand slam in this ballpark on July 27, 2019, off Michael Wacha.

AIR MAX: Max Kepler is hitting .297 (27-for-91) with six doubles, five home runs, 16 RBI, 16 runs scored, seven walks and an .871 OPS in his last 25 games…Saturday night’s home run was the 144th of his career, passing Joe Mauer and moving into sole possession of 12th on the Twins all-time list (since 1961):

TWIN HR TWIN HR TWIN HR
1) Harmon Killebrew……….475 6) Bob Allison ………………..211 11) Miguel Sanó…………. 162
2) Kent Hrbek………………..293 7) Kirby Puckett ……………..207 12) Max Kepler………….. 144
3) Justin Morneau…………..221 8) Gary Gaetti ………………..201 13) Joe Mauer ……………. 143
4) Tony Oliva………………….220 9) Brian Dozier……………….167 14) Michael Cuddyer…… 141
5) Torii Hunter ……………….214 10) Tom Brunansky…………163 15) Jacque Jones………… 132

NATIONAL ATTENTION:The Twins have gone 10-13 in Interleague Play this season, going 1-2 at Miami, 1-2 vs. Washington, 2-1 vs. San Diego, 2-1 vs. Chicago-NL, 1-2 vs. Los Angeles-NL, 1-2 vs. San Francisco, 2-0 vs. Milwaukee and 0-3 at Atlanta…10 wins passes their 2022 total of eight.

Twins are 260-245 all-time in IL Play for a .515 winning percentage, the eighth best in baseball.

Twins are 2-7 in NL road games, entering tonight having lost four straight since mid-May… their two wins were the first game in Miami on April 3 and the middle game at Dodger Stadium on May 16.

After this series, Minnesota’s remaining 2023 IL schedule includes Target Field visits from the Diamondbacks (August 4-6), Pirates (August 18-20) and Mets (September 8-10)…the Twins will also play road games at Phillies (August 11-13), Brewers (August 22-23), Reds (September 18-20) and Rockies (September 29-October 1).

Jorge Polanco has hit safely in 10 of 11 Interleague games this season, hitting .318 (14- for-44) with four doubles, three home runs, five RBI, four walks, and a .989 OPS…he has reached safely in 10 of his last 19 IL plate appearances (6 hits, 4 walks).

DAYS GONE BYRON: Byron Buxton is hitting .400 (8-for-20) with four doubles, two home runs, six RBI, one hit-by-pitch, two walks, a .478 on-base percentage, a .900 slugging percentage and a 1.378 OPS in his last six games…he has doubled four times in his last two games.

MINOR MATTERS: Triple-A St. Paul infielder Anthony Prato has been named International League Player of the Week and Double-A Wichita infielder Yunior Severino has been named Texas League Player of the Week.

Prato, 25, hit .550 (11-20) with six doubles, one home run, six RBI, and seven runs scored in six games for the Saints…he recorded multiple hits in five games and posted a .690 on-base percentage, a 1.000 slugging percentage and a 1.690 OPS.

Severino, 23, hit .348 (8-for-23) with six home runs, 10 RBI, four walks and seven runs scored for the Wind Surge, while posting a .444 on-base percentage, a 1.130 slugging percentage and a 1.575 OPS…he homered in five-straight games, including a two-homer game on Saturday vs. Frisco

STARTING PITCHER – #49 PABLO LóPEZ
2023: 5-6, 4.13 ERA CAREER: 33-37, 3.97 ERA

Making his 22nd start and appearance and 12th road start of 2023…also his 116th career appearance (all starts) in his sixth major league season (Miami – 2018-22).

Facing St. Louis for the fifth time in his career; is 1-2, 3.16 ERA (25.2 IP, 9 ER) with four walks and 25 strikeouts in four previous starts against the Cardinals.

Acquired by the Twins from Miami on January 20, 2023, along with infielder Jose Salas and outfielder Byron Chourio, in exchange for infielder/outfielder Luis Arraez

LAST TIME OUT: Recorded his 12th quality start of the season but did not factor into the decision on July 25 vs. Seattle, a 9-7 Twins’ loss at Target Field…pitched 7.0 innings and allowed two runs on six hits (2 HR), with one walk and eight strikeouts…allowed both of his runs on solo homers, one to Julio Rodríguez in the second inning and one to Cade Marlowe (1st career HR) in the fifth…recorded at least one strikeout in each of his 7.0 innings of work, including striking out two batters in the sixth inning…stranded two runners in scoring position in the seventh inning to end his outing…departed with a 6-2 lead, but three Twins relievers allowed seven runs in the final 2.0 innings as the Mariners came back to win the second game of the three-game series.

Marked his sixth start of 7.0-or-more innings this year and his 11th start with eight-or-more strikeouts…his 11 outings with at least eight strikeouts are tied with LAA’s Shohei Ohtani and TOR’s Kevin Gausman for the most in the American League this season.

Ranks second in the American League with 160 strikeouts…is also among the league leaders in innings pitched (128.2, T-6th), WAR (2.9 – 8th) and opponent batting average (.230 – 9th).

TWO STARTS AGO: Took the loss in his first career start against the Mariners on July 20 at T-Mobile Park, a 5-0 Twins’ defeat in the four-game series finale…allowed two runs on six hits (1 HR) in 5.0 innings pitched, with two walks and seven strikeouts…allowed three singles and one walk in the first inning, yielding a run on an RBI single by right-fielder Teoscar Hernández, but struck out the side to limit the damage; snapped an eight-start streak in which he did not allow a run in the first inning…retired the side in order in the second and third innings before allowing a solo homer to Hernández to lead off the fourth…allowed two hits in the fifth inning but stranded the two runners in scoring position to conclude his outing…was relieved by Oliver Ortega to start the sixth inning; Minnesota’s offense managed only five hits and fell to split the four-game series two games to two.

Marked his shortest start by innings since May 15 at Los Angeles-NL (4.2 IP), snapping a careerlong 10-start streak in which he pitched at least 5.2 innings…also threw 98 pitches, snapping a career-long five-start streak in which he tossed 100-or-more pitches.

SIX STRIKEOUT STREAK: López has recorded six-or-more strikeouts in nine-consecutive starts since June 7, matching the longest such streak of his career (also, 9-start streak from October 2, 2022 to May 10, 2023)…his current streak is the third-longest active streak in baseball, trailing ATL’s Spencer Strider (21 starts) and TB’s Tyler Glasnow (12 starts).

Has recorded 74 strikeouts in his last nine starts, becoming just the sixth pitcher in Twins history (since 1961) to record 74-or-more strikeouts in a nine-game span…is the first Minnesota pitcher to achieve the feat since Johan Santana also struck out 74 batters in a nine-start stretch from April 8-May 22, 2007.

BIRD’S-EYE VIEW: Facing St. Louis for the fifth time in his career…is 1-2, 3.16 ERA (25.2 IP, 9 ER) with four walks and 25 strikeouts in four previous starts vs. the Cardinals…last faced St. Louis on June 27, 2022 at Busch Stadium, taking the loss in a 9-0 Marlins’ defeat; pitched 5.0 innings and allowed five runs on six hits (2 HR), with one walk and five strikeouts in his only career start at St. Louis. In 19 career starts against the National League Central division (MIL – 6, STL – 4, CHC – 4, CIN – 3, PIT – 2), he is 5-7, 3.37 ERA (115.0 IP, 43 ER) with 26 walks and 118 strikeouts.

Is 4-6, 3.51 ERA (100.0 IP, 39 ER) with 24 walks and 112 strikeouts in 18 career Interleague starts.

ON THE ROAD AGAIN: Making his team-leading 12th road start of the season tonight…is 2-4, 3.56 ERA (65.2 IP, 26 ER) with 19 walks and 80 strikeouts in 11 starts on the road this year…has recorded a quality start in seven of his 11 road outings; his seven road quality starts are tied with eight other pitchers for the third most in baseball in 2023…lost his last road start on July 20 at Seattle, a 5-0 Twins’ defeat (5.0 IP, 6 H, 2 R/ER, 1 HR, 2 BB, 7 K)…Twins have gone 4-7 in his road starts this season, including losing five of his last seven…López is 3-2, 4.71 ERA (63.0 IP, 33 ER) with 17 walks and 80 strikeouts in 10 home starts this year; Twins are 7-3 in those starts.

Is 16-20, 4.32 ERA (291.2 IP, 140 ER) with 82 walks and 301 strikeouts in 55 career road starts…in 60 career home starts, he is 17-17, 3.68 ERA (347.0 IP, 142 ER) with 96 walks and 348 strikeouts.

RIGHT ON: López has limited right-handed hitters to a .208 (52-for-250) batting average this season, with righties going 2-for-12 with one home run and five strikeouts against him in his last start on July 25 vs. Seattle…his 91 strikeouts against righties are tied for the sixth most in the American League this year…his .208 opponent batting average vs. righties this season ranks tied for eighth in the AL (min. 15 GS)…left-handed hitters are batting at a .253 (59-for-233) clip against him in 2023, going 4-for-14 with two doubles, one home run and three strikeouts against him in his last outing.

Has better career numbers against righties (.655 OPS) than lefties (.744 OPS).

PITCH BREAKDOWN: Has used a five-pitch mix in 2023, per Baseball Savant…has primarily used his sweeper and sinker against right-handed hitters, favoring his changeup and curveball against lefthanded hitters…recorded a strikeout with four of his pitch types in his last start on July 25 vs. Seattle (four-seam fastball – 3, sweeper – 2, changeup – 2, curveball – 1)…here is a look at his 2023 arsenal:

PITCH (AVG. MPH) PCT. (# OF PITCHES, VS. RHB/LHB) RESULTS
4-Seam Fastball (95.0)……………..35.6% (715 pitches, 323/392)… .233 (35-for-150), 9 2B, 7 HR, 57 K Sweeper (84.3)……………………….21.1% (424 pitches, 319/105).. .179 (17-for-95), 2 2B, 2 3B, 3 HR, 35 K Changeup (88.4)……………………20.5% (412 pitches, 154/258).. .225 (27-for-120), 4 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR, 34 K Curveball (82.4)…………………….. 12.4% (248 pitches, 55/193) .. .258 (17-for-66), 1 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 30 K Sinker (94.5) …………………………..10.4% (209 pitches, 204/5)…… .294 (15-for-51), 2 2B, 1 HR, 3 K

In his first 21 starts this year, López has an average fastball velocity of 94.8 mph, a 2.1 mph increase from last season and the largest year-to-year jump of his career.

GIVE ‘EM THE HEATER, PABLO!: According to Baseball Savant, López’s four-seam fastball has a run value of 5 this season, the second-highest run value for a Twins’ pitcher on a four-seamer (Joe Ryan – 13)…he owns the lowest opponent hard-hit rate (35%) on low fastballs this season among qualified starters, and his 20 percent hard-hit rate on inside fastballs is second best in baseball (Inside Edge).

CUTTING TO THE CHASE: López has a career-high 34.5 chase percentage in 2023, placing him in the 95th percentile in baseball, according to Baseball Savant…his chase rate ranks second on the Twins staff (Joe Ryan – 34.6)and 20th in the majors…also has a career-high 51.4 percent swing rate and 29.8 percent whiff rate in 2023.

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS NOTES:

RECENT REDBIRDS: The St. Louis Cardinals continue their longest homestand (10 games/11 days) of the season with the first game of a three-game series against the first place Minnesota Twins, who are currently riding a five-game losing streak, longest active in Major League Baseball. The Cardinals began the homestand with four games against the Chicago Cubs (1-3), finishing the season series between the two rivals. Following the three-game series with the Twins, the Cardinals will host the Colorado Rockies for three games (Aug. 4-6).

FLIGHT PATTERN: St. Louis enters fhe first day of August in last place in the NL Central, 11.5 games behind 1st place Cincinnati and 10.0 games back in the NL Wild Card chase … St. Louis has spent 85 of 121 days in last place on this season’s MLB schedule (April 26-May 19, May 29-July 7 & July 28-present) … This season is the Cardinals slowest start since 1995 when they were 43-64 (.402) after 107 games … With 55 games remaining, the Cardinals need to go 34-21 (.618) the remainder of the season to finish at .500.

BIRDS OF A FEATHER: Over the last 48 hours the Cardinals have made a few trades with their fine featherevd friends to the North. On Sunday, the Cardinals dealt RHP Jordan Hicks to the Toronto Blue Jays in exhange for Minor League pitchers RHP Sam Robberse and RHP Adam Kloffenstein. Earlier today, SS Paul DeJong was traded to the Blue Jays for minor league pitcher RHP Matt Svanson.

BIRDS!: Keeping in theme, the Cardinals traded with the Orioles in the final minutes of the Trade Deadline as RHP Jack Flaherty was sent to Baltimore in exchange for Minor League pitchers RHP Drew Rom (40-player roster), RHP Zack Showalter and INF César Prieto.

ALL MY EX’S LIVE IN TEXAS: Following Sunday’s game, the Cardinals traded LHP Jordan Montgomery and RHP Chris Stratton to the Texas Rangers in exchange for RHP John King, minor league RHP Tekoah Roby and INF Thomas Saggese. King will join the Cardinals bullpen tonight. He was 1-1 with a 5.79 in 15 appearances this season for the Rangers and has career marks of 10-10 with a 4.27 ERA in 87 appearances.

DONOVAN ON INJURED LIST, EDMAN ACTIVATED; NAILE, SUÁREZ, THOMPSON & FERMÍN RECALLED: Prior to today’s game, INF Brendan Donovan was placed on the 10-day Injured list with a right elbow strain. INF/OF Tommy Edman was activated from the Injured List (right wrist inflammation). Edman played shortstop on Saturday for Memphis (AAA) and Sunday in centerfield. He had eight at-bats and was 2-for-8 with an RBI and two runs scored. RHP James Naile, LHP Andrew Suárez, LHP Zack Thompson and INF José Fermín were all recalled to fill the 26-player roster.

COMPLETING THE CIRCUIT: Cardinals first baseman Paul Goldschmidt has yet to hit a home run in his career against the Minnesota Twins. The Twins are the only team left the slugger has yet to clear the fence against among his 333 career home runs. He would become the 14th active player to complete the circuit (full list left in sidebar). It was 12 years ago today that Goldschmidt made his Major League debut at San Francisco with his first at-bat against Matt Cain.

WILLY’S JUMPIN’ JULY: Cardinals catcher Willson Contreras led all of Major League Baseball with a .429 batting average (21-49), .547 on-base percentage and 1.282 OPS in the month of July. He also led the National League and finished second in slugging with a .735 mark (Tristan Casas, BOS, .758 sluggling). Teammate Lars Nootbaar set a single-month high for his career with 24 runs scored in July, tied with Freddie Freeman and CJ Abrams for the Major League lead.

JUNIOR CIRCUIT: Tonight’s starting pitcher RHP Miles Mikolas is 3-0 with a 3.73 ERA in seven starts against Interleague opponents this season. Mikolas is one of six starting pitchers in MLB with a perfect record in Interleague games this season with three or more wins (Michael Wacha 5-0; Braxton Garrett 3-0; Yusei Kikuchi 3-0; Jordan Montgomery 3-0 and Chris Sale 3-0).

SAVING THE BEST FOR LAST: On Sunday, LHP JoJo Romero recorded his first Major League save. It came exactly one year after Romero was traded to the Cardinals from the Phillies for INF Edmundo Sosa. Romero went his first 48 Major League appearances without recording a win, loss or save; the longest active streak without a decision when he broke it on July 9 with a win at Chicago (AL). Over the last 21 days since that win, Romero is 2-1 with a 3.48 ERA and one save in eight relief appearances. His 0.87 WHIP over that period ranks as 10th-lowest mark among National League left-handed relievers.

LEADING MAN: With Lars Nootbaar’s lead-off home run Saturday night, he now has four lead-off home runs in 2023 and five for his career. It’s the most lead-off home runs in a single-season by a Cardinal since Matt Carpenter set the franchise record with eight in 2018. His four lead-off rockets ranks T-4th in MLB this season behind Mookie Betts (10, LAD), Kyle Schwarber (6, PHI) and Marcus Semien (5, TEX).

TONIGHT’S STARTING PITCHER: RHP MILES MIKOLAS (6-6, 4.38)
NL Ranks: Games Started (23, 1st*), Innings Pitched (127.1, 7th), Hits Allowed (141, 2nd), Walks/9 IP (1.78, 3rd), HR/9 IP (0.85, 7th).

  • The 2022 N.L. All-Star & team’s Opening Day starter for 2023 is making his Major League-leading 24th start of 2023, 167th career appearance & 139th career start.
  • Received a five-game suspension and undisclosed fine from Major League Baseball for throwing at Ian Happ on July 27.
  • His 2.97 ERA at Busch Stadium ranks 12th in MLB since he joined the Cardinals in 2018. (Jacob deGrom at Citi/Globe Life is 1st with 1.99 ERA).
  • Came back on two days rest after throwing 3.0 perfect innings (34 pitches) vs. Washington (7/14) in a game that was suspended by weather and picked up a 6-4 win on Mon. (7/17) vs. MIA – his first home win since May 30 vs. KC.
  • Has crossed the 100.0 innings threshold for the 4th time in his ML career. Leads the Cardinals in innings pitched (127.1) and is ranked T-2nd on the team in wins (6).
  • Received no more than 3 runs of support in 16 of 23 starts this season, including just one run while on the mound in his first four June starts, losing 2-1, 8-4, 6-1 and 3-0.
  • Has allowed 19 of his 63 runs in the 1st inning (7.54 ERA, .347 BA); His ERA after the opening inning is 3.70 (43 ER/104.2 IP).
  • Has not allowed a homer in the 1st inning, joining Jesus Luzardo, Sonny Gray, and Marcus Stroman as the only four pitchers with 20 or more starts without.
  • Since joining the Cardinals in 2018, Mikolas leads MLB (min. 700 IP) in fewest walks (136); Justin Verlander (139) is 2nd. His 1.61 walks/9 IP ties Zack Greinke (1.61) for the fewest in MLB.
  • Hasn’t committed an error since 8/2/18 vs. COL. One of two pitchers (Erick Fedde) with 100+ total chances and zero errors since 8/3/18. Ranks 8th among MLB pitchers in fielding pct. (.987) since 2018. (min. 100 TC). Was one of 10 MLB pitchers and two Cardinals (Wainwright) with a perfect 1.000 fielding pct. (31 total chances) in 2022.
  • Ranks 2nd behind only Adam Wainwright (2,624.0 IP) in most career innings pitched (850.1) among active Cardinals.
  • Ranks 4th among all-time Busch Stadium III leaders in ERA (2.96; min. 300 IP), 9th in all-time wins (22) & 8th in innings pitched (382.2).

LAST TIME OUT

  • Recorded two outs on 14 pitches in the top of the first inning before hitting Ian Happ and being ejected by home plate umpire Ryan Additon (1st career ejection).
  • Became first Cardinal to throw 14 or fewer pitches in a start since Carlos Martinez (7 pitches, 0.1 IP) on 9/25/15 vs. Milwaukee (left game due to injury).

DATE vs. RESULT DEC IP H R ER BB SO HR NP-S
7/27 CHI L 10-3 L-6 0.2 0 1 1 0 1 0 14-7

2023

  • Snapped his four-game losing skid (one shy of career high) with his 50th career win at CWS (7/8). It was his 1st road win since 5/25 at Cincinnati.
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