MLB Preview: Minnesota Twins (48-47) at Seattle Mariners (47-46)

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Seattle Mariners

MINNESOTA TWINS NOTES:

THE TWINS: Lost last night and are now 3-1 on their current seven-game, West Coast roadtrip… tonight, the Twins will play the second of four games against the Mariners in Seattle…after the series with Seattle, Minnesota will return home this weekend for three games against division rival the Chicago White Sox (July 21-23) and host the Mariners for three games (July 24-26)…the Twins have gone 26-22 at home and 22-25 on the road.

TWINS STUMBLE IN SEATTLE: The Twins dropped the series opener to the Mariners last night, losing 7-6 and falling to 11-16 in one-run games this season…Sonny Gray was the starter and took the loss, allowing five runs on five hits, with four walks and five strikeouts in 5.2 innings of work…the offense tallied 12 hits, including five extra-base hits, for the club’s ninth loss this season while out-hitting an opponent…Max Kepler doubled, homered and drove in three runs while Edouard Julien went 3-for-4 and matched his single-game career high in hits…Joey Gallo also left the yard, hitting his sixth homer in his last 18 games…Twins went 3-for-10 with runners in scoring position and left 10 men on base. AKepler’s homer was the 142nd of his career, breaking a tie with Michael Cuddyer to take sole possession of 13th place on the Twins’ (1961-present) all-time list…next up is Joe Mauer (12th, 143).

TWINS-M’S: The Twins and Mariners are playing each other for the second of seven meetings this season…after this four-game series at T-Mobile Park, the two teams will face off for three games at Target Field next week from July 24-26…Twins went 4-3 against the Mariners in 2022, including 2-1 at T-Mobile Park and 2-2 at Target Field; Minnesota won the season series over Seattle for the first time since going 5-2 in 2019…Twins have gone 11-10 vs. Seattle since the start of the 2019 season, after going 12-14 against the M’s from 2015-18.

Carlos Correa has an active 10-game hitting streak here, dating back to July 26, 2021; he’s hitting .349 (15-for-43) with six doubles, four RBI, four walks, eight runs scored, a .404 on-base percentage and an .893 OPS during the streak…his 54 career hits at T-Mobile Park are his most in a visiting ballpark in his career.

Donovan Solano is a career .364 (16-for-44) hitter with three doubles, one triple, four RBI, two walks, nine runs scored and an .869 OPS in 10 games vs. the Mariners…he has multiple hits in three of his four career games at T-Mobile Park, going 8-for-18 with two doubles, two RBI and five runs scored in those games.

Byron Buxton is slashing .333/.412/.822 (15-for-45) with four doubles, six home runs, 11 RBI, three walks, 10 runs scored and a 1.234 OPS in his last 11 games against the Mariners, since April 8, 2021.

Joey Gallo has six extra-base hits, six RBI, five walks and a .946 OPS in his last nine games at T-Mobile Park.

THAT BASEBALL HAD A FAMILY: Joey Gallo’s team-leading 17th home run last night traveled 422 feet and had an exit velocity of 109.2 mph, per Statcast…the Twins’ average home run distance of 403 feet is seventh in the majors this season…Twins also have an average exit velocity of 105.0 mph on home runs, tied with New York-NL for fifth best in the majors… Minnesota also ranks third in the majors in barrels-per-batted ball event (10.0) and seventh in hard hit percent (41.6).

PEN-T UP POWER: The Twins’ bullpen is 4-1 with a 1.94 ERA (41.2 IP, 9 ER), 14 walks, 43 strikeouts, a .160 (23-for-144) opponent batting average and a .501 opponent OPS in the club’s last 13 road games, since June 23…overall, Twins relievers have combined for a .271 road wOBA and a .209 road opponent batting average, both tops among major league bullpens away from home, and a 3.42 road ERA (152.2 IP, 58 ER), the third-lowest ERA on the road among ‘pens this season, trailing only New York-AL (3.13) and Atlanta (3.22).

Twins bullpen has posted a 3.69 ERA (312.1 IP, 128 ER) overall this season, the sixth-best ERA in the majors.

CC ME NOW: Since being inserted into the leadoff spot on June 30, Carlos Correa has reached base safely in 13-straight games, hitting .340 (17-for-50) with five doubles, four RBI, five walks, nine runs scored, a .421 on-base percentage and an .861 OPS…since that date, he leads the team in hits and times on base (24)…additionally, after the All-Star break last season, Correa hit .304 (77-for-253) with 11 doubles, 11 home runs, 31 RBI, a .380 on-base percentage and an .866 OPS in 66 games.

Correa is also hitting .294 (20-for-68) with a .360 on-base percentage in his last 17 games overall, since June 24…he’s also hitting .299 (20-for-67) with six doubles, three home runs, nine RBI and an .879 OPS in his last 16 road games, since June 8.

SHINY JULES: Edouard Julien matched his single-game career high with three hits last night and is 12-for-21 (.571) with three doubles, three home runs, five RBI, two walks, six runs scored, a 1.143 slugging percentage and a 1.752 OPS in his last eight games, since July 3…since being recalled on June 10, he’s hitting .354 (28-for-79) with nine doubles, three home runs, six RBI, 10 walks, 13 runs scored, a .422 on-base percentage and a 1.005 OPS in 27 games; since that date, he ranks among the major league leaders (minimum of 75 at-bats) in batting average (8th), on-base percentage (10th) and OPS (12th).

Julien ranks among the MLB rookie leaders this season (minimum of 130 at-bats) in OPS (.897, 1st), batting average on balls in play (.417, 1st), slugging percentage (.525, 2nd) and on-base percentage (.373, 3rd).

AK OK: Alex Kirilloff recorded his second-straight multi-hit game last night and is 4-for-12 with one double. one home run and five RBI in three games on the roadtrip…in his last 14 games, Kirilloff is slashing .340/.396/.468 (16-for-47) with three doubles, one home run, 10 RBI, three walks, three runs scored and an .864 OPS.

Kirilloff has performed better on the road than at home this season, batting .312 (29-for-93) with six doubles, two home runs, 12 RBI, 11 walks, six runs scored, a .409 on-base percentage and an .850 OPS in 29 road games this year…his road on-base percentage ranks fourth in the American League (minimum of 85 at-bats), while his road batting average is seventh.

STARTING PITCHER – BAILEY OBER #17
2023: 5-4, 2.61 ERA CAREER: 10-10, 3.39 ERA

Making his 15th start of the season and sixth road start…also his 46th career start and appearance.

Facing the Mariners for the first time this season and the third time in his career…is 1-0, 4.00 ERA (9.0 IP, 4 ER) with two walks and 10 strikeouts in his two previous starts,

Began the season with Triple-A St. Paul and was recalled when Kenta Maeda landed on the Injured List on April 29…since being inserted into the rotation, the Twins have gone 8-6 in his 14 starts.

Selected by the Twins in the 12th round of the 2017 First-Year Player Draft out of the College of Charleston

LAST START: Did not factor into the decision despite recording his fifth-consecutive quality start on July 7 vs. Baltimore, a 10-inning, 3-1 Twins’ defeat…pitched 6.0 innings and allowed one run on four hits, issued a career-high-tying three walks and struck out five batters…marked the fourth time in his career Ober has walked three batters (also, July 5, 2021 vs. Chicago-AL; April 23 vs. Washington; and May 22 vs. San Francisco)…faced the minimum in the first inning…pitched 3.2 hitless innings before allowing a single to Jordan Westburg in the top of the fourth inning…permitted his only run a sacrifice fly to Cedric Mullins in the sixth inning…relieved by Griffin Jax in the seventh inning who combined with Jovani Moran to pitch 2.0 scoreless innings (1.0 IP each)…Jhoan Duran entered the game in the top of the ninth and pitched a scoreless inning; he returned to the mound in the 10th and allowed an RBI single to Ramón Urías and a sacrifice fly to former Twin Aaron Hicks…the only run scored by the Twins was on an RBI double by Willi Castro in the seventh inning.

Among American League pitchers with at least 13 games started in 2023, Oberranks second in WHIP (0.97), second in ERA (2.61), fourth in opponent batting average (.207), seventh in walks-per-9.0 innings (1.96), and 10th in strikeout-to-walk ratio (4.39).

Currently owns a eight-game streak with three-or-fewer earned runs allowed…tied for the fourth-longest active streak among American League starters this season.

Currently owns the second-longest active quality start streak among American League starters, trailing only Boston’s Brayan Bello (7).

TWO STARTS AGO: Earned his fifth win of the season on July 1 at Baltimore…pitched a season-high-tying 7.0 scoreless innings and allowed just two hits, issued zero walks and struck a season-high-tying eight batters in his second-consecutive game…marked his eighth quality start of the season; owns the third-most quality starts in the Twins’ rotation, trailing Joe Ryan (12) and Pablo López (11)… pitched a 1-2-3 first inning…allowed a single to Gunnar Henderson in the second inning…retired 13 of the next 14 batters he faced before allowing another single to Anthony Santander in the seventh (hit Ryan O’Hearn with a pitch in the fourth)…relieved by Griffin Jax in the eighth inning who combined with Jhoan Duran to pitch 2.0 scoreless innings to complete the shutout…the only run scored by the Twins was on a solo home run by Joey Gallo in the fourth inning…marked just the second 1-0 shutout of the season for Minnesota (also, June 2 vs. Cleveland, an Ober start).

SUMMER NIGHT IN SEATTLE: Ober is facing the Mariners for the third time in his career, going 1-0, 4.00 ERA (9.0 IP, 4 ER) with two walks and 10 strikeouts in his two previous starts…last faced the Mariners on April 10, 2022 at Target Field in his first start of the season…earned the win in the 10-4 Twins’ victory after pitching 5.0 innings and allowing four runs on four hits (1 HR), with two walks and four strikeouts…pitched 2.0 scoreless innings before allowing an RBI single to Adam Frazier and a three-run home run to Mitch Haniger in the third inning…retired all seven batters he faced after the home run, including striking out Eugenio Suárez in the fourth inning for his 100th career strikeout… relieved by Danny Coulombe in the sixth inning as the bullpen combined to pitch 4.0 scoreless innings.

Tied for the ninth-lowest opponent batting average against Seattle (.167) since 2021 (min. 2 GS).

RETURN TO THE ROAD: Ober is making his sixth road start of the season tonight…is 3-1, 2.01 ERA (31.1 IP, 7 ER) with five walks and 35 strikeouts in five road starts in 2023; earned road victories on May 5 at Cleveland, May 16 at Los Angeles-NL and July 1 at Baltimore…is 2-3, 2.98 ERA (51.1 IP, 17 ER) with 13 walks and 44 strikeouts in nine home starts this season…is 4-6 with a 3.26 ERA (107.2 IP, 39 ER), 18 walks and 105 strikeouts in 21 career road games.

Among pitchers with at least five road starts, Ober ranks first in opponent batting average (.173), first in WHIP (0.77), first in opponent OPS (.488), second in ERA, fourth in strikeout-to-walk ratio (7.00), tied for fourth in walks and eighth in walks-per-9.0 innings (1.44).

Owns one career start at T-Mobile Park on June 16, 2021…did not factor into the decision after pitching 4.0 scoreless innings and allowing one hit with six strikeouts in a 7-2 Twins’ win.

LEFT AND RIGHT: Left-handed hitters are batting .200 (32-for-160) with 38 strikeouts and 13 walks against Ober after 14 starts this season…right-handed hitters are hitting .216 (30-for-139) with 41 strikeouts and five walks…lefties went 3-for-12 with two walks and two strikeouts against him in his last start on July 7 vs. Baltimore while righties went 1-for-8 with one walk and three strikeouts…in his career, left-handed hitters are batting .247/.310/.394 with 96 strikeouts against Ober…righties are hitting .221/.245/.416 with 130 strikeouts off him.

Owns the sixth-lowest opponent batting average against left-handed hitters among American League pitchers with at least 14 starts this season…also has the fifth-lowest slugging percent- age (.300) and OPS (.567) against lefties this year.

ARSENAL: Ober has used a four-pitch mix in his 14 starts of the 2023 season, per Baseball Savant… mostly uses his slider against righties while relying on his changeup and curveball against lefties… tossed 23 changeups in his last start on July 7 at Baltimore; allowed two hits on the pitch and also struck out two batters…here’s a look at his repertoire:

PITCH (AVG. MPH) PCT. (#, vs. RHB/LHB) RESULTS
4-Seam Fastball (91.3)………. 44.4% (558 pitches, 238/320)… .235 (28-for-119), 7 2B, 4 HR, 32 K
Changeup (83.6)………………… 25.6% (322 pitches, 97/225)…… .176 (16-for-91), 2 2B, 1 3B, 24 K
Slider (81.3)………………………. 21.4% (269 pitches, 205/64)…… .234 (15-for-64), 5 2B, 4 HR, 19 K
Curveball (77.8)…………………… 8.7% (109 pitches, 22/87)………………… .120 (3-for-25), 1 2B, 4 K

His .176 opponent batting average against his changeup is the second lowest on the Twins (Jovani Moran – .148) and tied for the 11th lowest in baseball (min. 75 late appearances)… his .125 opponent batting average on his curveball is the lowest on the Twins and tied for the eighth lowest in baseball (min. 20 plate appearances).

His .189 opponent batting average across all of his secondary pitches (changeup, slider and curveball) is the sixth lowest in the American League and 13th lowest in baseball (min. 150 plate appearances).

Currently has a run value of 10 on his changeup, tied for the fourth highest in all of baseball.

WALK THIS WAY: Despite owning a career-high 5.6 walk percentage this season, Ober still ranks in the 88th percentile across baseball and second on the Twins pitching staff, trailing Joe Ryan (4.6).

HARD KNOCKS: Currently owns a career-low 33.9 hard-hit percentage this season, ranking in the 81st percentile in all of baseball and third on the Twins staff, trailing Jovani Moran (27.4) and Griffin Jax (33.0).

CHASE ATLANTIC: According to Baseball Savant, Ober owns a 34.2 chase percentage this season, ranking in the 93rd percentile in baseball…ranks third on the Twins’ pitching staff in chase percentage, trailing Pablo López (35.9) and Joe Ryan (35.3)…has a 33.2 chase percentage in his career…also has a 52.6 swing percentage this season, the second highest of his career (2022 – 52.9).

ACROSS THE RIVER: In his four starts with Triple-A St. Paul this season, Ober went 2-1, 2.55 ERA (17.2 IP, 5 ER) with six walks and 22 strikeouts…in his last start with the Saints on April 18, earned the win in a 6-0 St. Paul victory vs. Scranton/Wilkes-Barre…pitched 5.0 scoreless innings, allowed three hits, walked one batter and fanned six.

SEATTLE MARINERS NOTES:

TONIGHT’S TILT…the Mariners continue the 10-game homestand (2-2) tonight with the 2nd of 4 games against the Minnesota Twins (1-0)…they recently wrapped up a 3-game series vs. the Detroit Tigers (1-2)… the Mariners will also welcome the Toronto Blue Jays (3 G, 7/21-7/23) to T-Mobile Park on the homestand… tonight’s game will be televised live on ROOT SPORTS and broadcast live on Seattle Sports (710 AM).

ODDS AND ENDS…the Mariners defeated the Twins by a score of 7-6 to win their second consecutive game…Seattle is 9-4 over its last 13 games…the Mariners are 36-17 when scoring at least 4 runs and 11-29 when scoring 3-or-fewer…the Mariners are 26-22 at T-Mobile Park and 21-24 on the road this season…they are 15-18 in day games and 32-28 at night.

GENO DIDN’T WRITE BACK…Eugenio Suárez went 2-for-4 with 1 run, 1 home run and 2 RBI in last night’s game, extending his on-base streak to 8 consecutive games (7/6-c)…over his last 31 games since June 10, Geno is batting .267 (28×105) with 16 runs, 8 doubles, 6 home runs, 19 RBI, 13 walks and 5 hitby-pitch, while reaching base at a .359 clip and slugging .514 with a .874 OPS…his .874 OPS ranks 15thbest in the American League during that span (6/10-c), trailing only J.P. Crawford (.925) for the club lead.

THE STARTING FIVE…over the Mariners last 28 games (6/12-c), the starting rotation is 13-8 with a 2.74 ERA (52 ER, 171.0 IP) with 42 walks and 149 strikeouts…the 2.74 ERA starters ERA leads the Majors by a wide margin during that span, ranking ahead of San Diego (3.19) and Philadelphia (3.40)…during that span, Bryan Woo is 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA (6 ER, 28.0 IP) with 7 walks and 32 strikeouts in 5 starts…Logan Gilbert is 4-1 with a 2.29 ERA (10 ER, 39.1 IP) with 7 walks and 30 strikeouts in 6 starts…George Kirby is 3-3 with a 3.32 ERA (14 ER, 38.0 IP) with 5 walks and 32 strikeouts in 6 starts…Bryce Miller is 3-0 with a 2.45 ERA (7 ER, 25.2 IP) with 8 walks and 25 strikeouts in 5 starts…Luis Castillo is 2-3 with a 3.53 ERA (14 ER, 35.2 IP) with 11 walks and 30 strikeouts in 6 starts.

THE J-ROD SHOW…Julio Rodríguez recorded his 50th RBI of the season with a walk in the 5th inning of last night’s game…he became the 5th player in Mariners history with 50+ RBI in each of his first 2 MLB seasons, joining Alvin Davis (1984-85), Ken Griffey Jr. (1989-90), Ichiro Suzuki (2001-02) & Kenji Johjima (2006-07)…Julio’s 50 RBI this season are tied for 2nd-most among Mariners batters (also: Teoscar Hernández), trailing only Eugenio Suárez (52) for the club lead…Seattle is 1 of 9 clubs in the Majors this season to have least 3 players with 50+ RBI.

2-OUTS, SO WHAT?…the Mariners scored 6 of their 7 runs in last night’s game with 2 outs…overall this season, the Mariners have recorded 175 of their 401 RBI with 2 outs, accounting for 43.6% of their total RBI…Seattle’s 43.6% 2-out RBI share is the highest rate in the Majors this season, ranking ahead of the Dodgers (42.8%) and Mets (42.8%)…Julio Rodríguez leads the Mariners and ranks tied for 9th in the Majors with 26 2-out RBI, ranking ahead of Jarred Kelenic (23) and Eugenio Suárez (22) for the club lead.

PAUL WILL SAVE US…Paul Sewald has tallied 19 saves this season, 1 shy of his career-high 20 saves in 2022…he has picked up a save in 5 of his last 6 appearances, converting each of his last 5 save opportunities…with his next save, Sewald will become the first Mariners reliever to record 20+ saves in back-to-back seasons since Edwin Díaz recorded 57 saves in 2018 and 34 saves in 2017…Paul has struck out multiple batters in 13 of his 19 saves this season…his 13 multi-strikeout saves are 2nd-most in the Majors, trailing only Félix Bautista (19)…Sewald recorded his 50th career save with Seattle last night.

DUELING PITCHING STAFFS…the Mariners pitching staff leads the Majors in strikeout-to-walk ratio (3.51), ranking ahead of the Twins (3.33)…the Mariners also lead the Majors in quality starts (47), ranking ahead of the Twins (46)…Seattle and Minnesota are tied for the MLB lead in WHIP (1.17) and FIP (3.73).

OFFENSIVE COORDINATORS…over the Mariners last 32 games (6/9-c), the team’s offense leads the Majors with 4.05 pitches-per-plate appearance, while averaging 4.75 runs/game during that span…over the first 61 games of the season prior to June 9, the offense averaged 4.34 runs/game, while seeing 3.92 pitches/plate appearances during that span. POWER-SPEED THREATS…Seattle is 1 of 7 clubs to have multiple players with 10+ home runs and 10+ stolen bases this season…Julio Rodríguez (13 HR, 22 SB) and Jarred Kelenic (11 HR, 12 SB) have reached those marks for the Mariners, who are accompanied by Tampa Bay (4 players), San Diego (3), Milwaukee, Toronto, Cincinnati and Philadelphia.

AS YOU MAY KNOW…Jarred Kelenic picked up his club-leading 14th go-ahead RBI of the season in the 5th inning of last night’s game, ranking ahead of Eugenio Suárez (10) and Teoscar Hernández (10), and…AS YOU MAY ALSO KNOW…Kelenic’s RBI single in the 5th inning was also his club-leading 11th game-winning RBI, ranking ahead of Suárez (7) Hernández (6), but…DID YOU KNOW?…Kelenic’s 11 game-winning RBI are tied for 3rd-most in the Majors this season (also: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.-TOR and Jose Ramírez-CLE)?…he trails only Kyle Schwarber-PHI (13) and Josh Naylor-CLE (12).

MARINERS STARTER – RHP BRYAN WOO
2023/Career MLB Breakdown:
W-L ERA G/GS IP H R ER BB SO HR
Overall 1-1 3.63 7/7 34.2 28 16 14 9 43 4
Home 0-0 2.53 2/2 10.2 9 4 3 1 16 2
Road 1-1 4.13 5/5 24.0 19 12 11 8 27 2
vs. MIN 0-0 -.– 0/0 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0

ABOUT BRYAN WOO… • The 23-year-old right-handed pitcher is scheduled to make his 8th Major League start and 1st career start against Minnesota. • Selected by Seattle in the 6th round (174th overall) of the 2021 MLB First-Year Player Draft out of Cal Poly University…signed by Mariners scout Chris Hom. • Spent 3 seasons at Cal Poly before being drafted, making 31 appearances (6 GS) for the Mustangs. • Did not pitch in 2021 while recovering from right elbow surgery.

LAST TIME OUT…ND in his 7th Major League start at Houston, tossed 6.0 innings and allowed 2 runs (1 earned) on 3 hits and 1 walk with 4 strikeouts.

HIGH QUALITY…recorded his 2nd consecutive quality start after pitching 6.0 innings and allowing just 1 earned run against Houston…his first career quality start came on 7/3 against San Francisco.

HOME SWEET HOME…he is set to make his 3rd start at T-Mobile Park tonight…in his previous 2 home starts this season Woo has a 2.53 ERA (3 ER, 10.2 IP) with just 1 walk and 16 strike- outs.

AMONG MARINERS GREATS…Woo’s 43 strikeouts are the 3rd most in Mariners history in a pitcher’s first 7 career starts, he trails only Félix Hernández (50) and Michael Pineda (45).

IN THE WIN COLUMN…Woo earned his 1st career win on 6/22 against New York-AL…he carried a no hitter into the 6th inning before giving up a 1-out single to Gelyber Torres…he became the 5th Mariners pitcher this season to carry a no-hitter into the 6th inning (also: Bryce Miller, Logan Gilbert, Luis Castillo, Easton McGee).

CAREER-HIGH PUNCHIES…recorded a new career high in strikeouts in his outing against the White Sox on 6/16 with 9…his Minor League career high is 11 which he achieved on 8/19/22 against Vancouver.

IN THE ZONE…has only allowed 9 walks while striking out 43 batters in 7 starts…his 4.78 strikeout-to-walk ratio ranks 3rd among Mariners starting pitchers this season.