MLB Preview: Baltimore Orioles (53-35) at Minnesota Twins (45-45)

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BALTIMORE ORIOLES NOTES:

TWINNING: The O’s defeated the Twins yesterday, 6-2, to clinch the series win…Scored all six runs and recorded all six hits (all singles) in the second Inning…Did not record an extra-base hit in a game for the fifth time this season; marked their first win without recording an extra-base hit this year…Have won four games in a row for the first time since winning five straight June 8-13.

Tyler Wells earned the win after allowing two runs on six hits with two walks, a wild pitch, and four strikeouts in 6.0 innings for his eighth quality start of the campaign.

SWEEP DREAMS: The O’s are looking for their fifth series sweep of the season today… Have not swept the Twins since a two-game set at Target Field from May 10-11, 2016…Have not swept the Twins in a three-game series since April 4-7, 2016 at Oriole Park…Have not swept the Twins in a series of at least three games in Minnesota since a four-game set from August 22-25, 2011…Have not swept a series of exactly three games in Minnesota since September 7-9, 1999.

FINISHING UP THE FIRST HALF: With one game remaining before the All-Star Break, the O’s sit at 53-35 (.602), which currently ranks as the eighth-best pre-All-Star Break winning percentage in club history (since 1954)…The only seasons in which the O’s had a better winning percentage before the break were 1969 (.677, 65-31), 1966 (.667, 58-29), 1979 (.656, 59-31), 1997 (.647, 55-30), 1971 (.632, 55-32), 1964 (.632, 48-28), and 1970 (.621, 54-33). YOUNG GUNN: On Thursday at New York-AL, Gunnar Henderson recorded his first career leadoff home run and set career bests with four hits and five RBI…He also matched career highs reaching safely four times and scoring three runs…He’s the fifth O’s rookie (sixth occurrence) with a leadoff home run, joining Cedric Mullins (2x), Joey Rickard, Ryan Flaherty, and Matt Angle…Became the fourth Orioles rookie with four hits and at least two homers in a game, joining Ryan Mountcastle, Chris Richard, and Curt Blefary…Also became the first MLB player with four hits and two home runs in the first four innings of a game since Matt Carpenter did so for St. Louis on July 20, 2018 at Chicago-NL…Became the youngest O’s batter (22-007) to log a multi-homer performance since Manny Machado (20-082) on September 26, 2012 vs. Toronto, and the youngest to do so on the road since Orioles Legend and Hall of Famer Eddie Murray (21-219) on October 1, 1977 at Boston.

Henderson is slashing .303/.350/.578 (33-for-109) with four doubles, one triple, eight home runs, 14 runs scored, 22 RBI, seven walks, and three stolen bases in 28 games since the start of June…During that time, he ranks among AL leaders in slugging (4th), homers (T-5th), and OPS (6th, .928).

He was voted the AL Rookie of the Month for June, his first monthly award and sixth O’s rookie to earn the honor; named AL Player of the Week for the week of June -11, his first career weekly award.

ON THE ROAD AGAIN: Baltimore is wrapping up a seven-game road trip to complete the pre-All-Star Break schedule…The O’s went 2-2 in the Bronx and have won the first two games of the three-game set in the Twin Cities against Minnesota…The Orioles open after the break with a six-game homestand against Miami and Los Angeles-NL from July 14-19.

Baltimore’s 27-17 (.614) road record is the best in the AL and third-best in MLB.

The Birds went 38-43 (.469) on the road last year, 14th-best in MLB, after going a combined 114-237 (.325) away from Camden Yards from 2017-21.

AGAINST THE TWINS: The Orioles and Twins are meeting for the second and final time in the regular season this weekend…Baltimore dropped the first two games to Minnesota at Oriole Park last weekend but rallied for two runs in the eighth inning on Sunday in a 2-1 comeback win…With a win today, the Birds would clinch their first season series victory over the Twins since 2016 (5-1)…The O’s lost 16 straight games to the Twins from March 31, 2018 to May 31, 2021, the longest losing skid by the Orioles against Minnesota since the team moved to the Twin Cities in 1961 and the third-longest against a single opponent in club history (since 1954).

PITCH PERFECT: O’s starting pitchers have a 2.23 ERA (12 ER/48.1 IP) with 37 hits (5 HR), 13 total runs, 15 walks, and 39 strikeouts in eight games this month, including six quality starts and four in a row…Overall, Baltimore’s 2.54 ERA (20 ER/71.0 IP) in July is the third-best in the AL and fifth-best in MLB.

GENUINE DRAFT: The 2023 MLB First-Year Player Draft is scheduled for July 9-11 during All-Star Week in Seattle…The Draft will feature 20 rounds across the three days, including the first two rounds, compensatory rounds, and competitive balance rounds on the opening night of the Draft…The Draft will begin exclusively on MLB Network, ESPN and MLB.com tonight at 7 p.m. ET…The Draft will resume at 2 p.m. on Monday, July 10, with the first pick in Round 3, and will continue through Round 10 on MLB.com…Day 3 of the Draft on Tuesday, July 11, will begin at 2 p.m. featuring picks in rounds 11-20 on MLB.com.

The Orioles have three picks on Day 1 of the Draft: No. 17, No. 53, and No. 63.

Marks the first time since 2018 that the Orioles do not have one of the top five picks; that year, Baltimore selected right-handed pitcher Grayson Rodriguez with the No. 11 overall pick out of Central Heights High School in Nacogdoches, Texas.

ROSTER MOVES: The Orioles today reinstated infielder Ryan Mountcastle from the 10-day Injured List (vertigo) and optioned left-handed pitcher Bruce Zimmermann to Triple-A Norfolk

STARTING PITCHER – #48 KYLE GIBSON RHP
QUICK HITS: Scheduled to make his 19th start of the season, 11th on the road, and second career start against the Twins today…Became the first O’s pitcher in club history (since 1954) to start and win each of his three first appearances with the team…Started a season 4-0 for the second time in his career, joining a 6-0 start with Texas in 2021; became the fifth Oriole starting pitcher since 2004 to begin a year 4-0, joining John Means (4-0 in 2021), Bud Norris (4-0 in 2013), Wei-Yin Chen (4-0 in 2012), and Erik Bedard (4-0 in 2006)… Tossed 7.0 shutout frames on May 25 at New York-AL, becoming the oldest O’s pitcher (35-214) to work 7.0-or-more scoreless innings in a start since Freddy García (36-236) also tossed 7.0 scoreless frames on May 30, 2013 vs. Washington…The O’s signed Gibson to a one-year contract on December 5, 2022…He has also spent time with the Twins, Phillies, and Rangers across 10 Major League seasons.

LAST TIME OUT: Dealt his sixth loss of the season on July 4 at Yankee Stadium after allowing three runs on four hits (1 HR) with a season-high-tying four walks (2x, last: 5/25 at NYY) and four strikeouts in 6.0 innings…Surrendered a two-run homer with no outs to Gleyber Torres in the first inning…Has tossed 5.0+ innings in 10 of his last 12 starts (since 5/3)…Threw a season-high 104 pitches, 61 strikes.

CAREER AGAINST THE TWINS AND AL CENTRAL: Did not factor in the decision in his lone start against Minnesota on May 4, 2012 with the Rangers…Allowed three runs on three hits (2 HR) with two walks and eight strikeouts in 8.0 innings…Threw 107 pitches, 67 strikes…Owns a 35-32 record with a 4.54 ERA (273 ER/541.1 IP), one complete game, and 41 quality starts in 97 career appearances (93 starts) against the AL Central….Last time out against the division, earned his eighth win of the season on June 11 vs. Kansas City…Allowed three runs on seven hits (1 HR) with four strikeouts in 6.1 innings…Did not win his eighth decision in 2022 until his 23rd start on August 16 at Cincinnati with Philadelphia…Threw 90 pitches, 59 strikes.

HOW SWEEP IT IS: Opposing batters are slashing .181/.224/.264 (13-for-72) with two home runs against Gibson’s sweeper this season…Has recorded 28 strikeouts via the off-speed pitch, the 10th-most entering play today…Last season, hitters slashed .294/.294/.529 (5-for-17) with two extra-base hits (2B, HR) against his sweeper.

HOMER (UN)HAPPY: Gibson has allowed just nine home runs in 102.2 innings across his 18 starts; entering play today, he ranks among qualified pitchers in HR/9 (12th, 0.79)…Did not allow a homer in five straight starts from May 14 to June 6, his longest such streak since keeping opponents in the yard in seven straight outings from September 26, 2020 to April 29, 2021 with Texas…Also marked the longest homerless streak by an O’s starter since Spenser Watkins also allowed zero home runs in five straight starts from May 22 to July 13, 2022.

ALL HE DOES IS WIN, WIN, WIN: Gibson earned his eighth win in his 13th start of the season on June 11 vs. Kansas City…Entering play today, he is one of 11 American League hurlers with at least eight wins and his eight victories are tied for sixth in the AL…Did not win his eighth decision in 2022 until his 23rd start on August 16 at Cincinnati…Is three victories shy of 100 for his career.

LIFE ON THE ROAD: Making his 11th road start of the 2023 campaign today…Sports a 4-3 record with a 4.40 ERA (29 ER/59.1 IP) in 10 starts away from Oriole Park this season… Dealt the loss in his last road start on July 4 at New York-AL…Allowed four runs on three hits (1 HR) with a season-high-tying four walks (last: 5/25 at NYY) and four strikeouts in 6.0 innings…Threw a season-high 104 pitches, 61 strikes.

MINNESOTA TWINS NOTES:

THE TWINS: Have gone 3-2 through five games on their six-game, seven-day homestand, going 3-0 vs. Kansas City and 0-2 vs. Baltimore…this afternoon, the Twins will complete the pre-ASG portion of their schedule with the three-game series finale against the Orioles…the Twins have gone 26-21 at home and 19-24 on the road.

After the All-Star break, the Twins will go on a seven-game roadtrip with three against Oakland from July 14-16 and four against Seattle from July 17-20.

SATURDAY’S ARE FOR THE O’s: The Twins lost to the Orioles yesterday afternoon at Target Field by a score of 6-2…Sonny Gray (4-3) was the starter and loser, allowing a season-high six runs on six hits in 6.0 innings pitched…all six runs allowed scored in the top of the second inning on six singles and two walks…it tied his career-high for most runs allowed in a single inning…Sonny retired 13 of the final 14 batters he faced…the offense recorded nine hits, three from Donovan Solano, who matched his career high with three doubles and recorded one RBI.

BREAK TIME: Pre-All-Star break hitting (top) and pitching (bottom) numbers since 2017:
AVG R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K OBP SLG OPS
2017: .253 403 764 154 10 100 386 323 735 .328 .410 .738
2018: .244 424 787 197 15 98 400 325 786 .316 .406 .722
2019: .272 509 861 188 13 166 489 270 715 .336 .497 .833
2021: .246 421 737 148 12 129 389 300 766 .318 .432 .750
2022: .252 421 800 160 10 117 407 311 768 .323 .420 .743
2023: .233 378 704 148 8 114 359 296 904 .310 .401 .711
W L S IP H ER HR BB K ERA BAA
2017: 45 43 25 785.2 833 427 135 291 606 4.89 .271
2018: 44 50 21 849.1 851 426 119 316 844 4.51 .259
2019: 56 33 26 807.0 758 356 109 255 780 3.97 .246
2021: 39 50 22 780.1 788 432 134 274 744 4.98 .261
2022: 50 44 20 833.1 761 363 112 275 752 3.92 .241
2023: 45 45 18 805.0 676 318 89 251 854 3.56 .226

PUTTING THE STAR IN STARTERS: Pablo López was named to the AL All-Star team yesterday, marking his first career selection…he joins Sonny Gray, who will be making his third trip after being named to the 2015 team with Oakland (DNP) and the 2019 team with Cincinnati (DNP)…Gray and López become the 18th and 19th different starting pitcher in club history to be selected to the All-Star team…below are the Twins All-Star SPs (since 1961):

PLAYER YEAR PLAYER YEAR PLAYER YEAR
Camilo Pascual……………1961 Bert Blyleven………………..1973 Francisco Liriano……… 2006
Jim Kaat……………………..1962 Frank Viola…………………..1988 Johan Santana…………. 2007
Camilo Pascual……………1962 Scott Erickson………………1991 Ervin Santana………….. 2017
Camilo Pascual……………1964 Jack Morris…………………..1991 José Berríos……………… 2018
Jim Grant…………………….1965 Brad Radke………………….1998 José Berríos……………… 2019
Jim Kaat……………………..1966 Joe Mays……………………..2001 Jake Odorizzi……………. 2019
Dean Chance……………….1967 Eric Milton …………………..2001 Sonny Gray……………… 2023
Jim Perry……………………..1970 Johan Santana……………..2005 Pablo López……………. 2023
Jim Perry……………………..1971 Johan Santana……………..2006

TWINS AND O’s: The Twins and Orioles are playing each other for the sixth and final time in 2023…the Twins are 2-3 vs. Baltimore this season, going 2-1 at Camden last weekend, followed by consecutive losses this weekend at Target Field…a win today and the Twins will avoid losing the season series to the Orioles to the first time since going 1-5 in 2016.

The Twins are 38-20 vs. Baltimore since the start of 2014…that marks the most wins against Baltimore among non-American League East teams in that span.

Byron Buxton has an .851 OPS in his last 11 games vs. Baltimore, with four home runs and 10 RBI in that span.

Max Kepler is hitting .330 (35-for-106) with seven doubles, one triple, 10 home runs, 24 RBI, 14 walks, a .405 OBP and a 1.103 OPS in 30 career games against Baltimore.

Michael A. Taylor is hitting .305 (36-for-118) with six doubles, three home runs, 17 RBI, 12 walks, a .371 on-base percentage and an .803 OPS in 39 career games against the O’s.

DONNIE DOUBLES: Donovan Solano hit three doubles last night, the 17th, 18th and 19th of his season…the 17th tied his single-season career high, done with San Francisco in 2021, while the 18th set a career high in the fourth inning…since June 1, Donovan Solano has posted a .405 on-base percentage in 32 games, reaching 45 times in 111 plate appearances (28 hits, 15 walks, 2 HBP)…through five games on the homestand, he is hitting .500 (9-for-18) with a 1.526 OPS, hitting safely in all five, including a pair of three-hit games.

LEAVE THE BROOMS ALONE: Twins are looking to avoid being swept today for the third time this season…the other two sweeps came in three games at Tropicana Field from June 6-8 against the Rays and three games at Truist Park from June 26-28 against the Braves…the last time the Twins were swept at Target Field was by the Guardians in three games from September 9-11, 2022.

The last time the Twins were swept by the Orioles was April 4-7, 2016 at Camden Yards… the last time the Twins were swept by the Orioles in Minnesota was in four games from August 22-25, 2011.

Minnesota has faced a potential sweep five times this season, salvaging the series finale three of five times…the three times they avoided a sweep were April 21-23 vs. Washington, May 2-4 at Chicago-AL and May 22-24 vs. San Francisco.

FIRE FEST: The SiriusXM Futures Game was played at T-Mobile Park in Seattle last night as the Twins lone representative David Festa, the Twins lone representative and number eight prospect per MLB.com, pitched a scoreless fifth inning, inducing a lineout, allowing a single, then getting a popout and strikeout.

FEELING A DRAFT: The Major League Baseball First-Year Player Draft will take place tonight, starting at 6 pm (CT)…the Twins will select at fifth overall (1st round), 34th overall (Competitive Balance Round A) and 49th overall (2nd round) this evening…in the 2022 draft, the Twins selected infielder Brooks Lee (8th overall), Connor Prielipp (48th overall) and Tanner Schobel (68th overall) on day one.

STARTING PITCHER – JOE RYAN #41
2023: 8-5, 3.42 ERA CAREER: 23-14, 3.55 ERA

Making his 18th start and appearance of 2023 and his ninth home start of the year…also his 50th career start and appearance.

Facing Baltimore for the first time this season and third time in his career; is 0-0, 2.31 ERA (11.2 IP, 3 ER) with two walks and 10 strikeouts in two previous starts vs. the Orioles.

Owns most strikeouts (295) and second-most wins (23) through a pitcher’s first 49 career games in Twins history (since 1961).

LAST TIME OUT: Recorded his team-leading 12th quality start but did not factor into the decision on July 3 vs. Kansas City in the Twins’ 8-4 win at Target Field…pitched 6.0 innings and allowed two runs on six hits (1 HR), with one walk and nine strikeouts, one short of his season high (done 3 times)…allowed a leadoff home run in his second-straight start, as third baseman Maikel Garcia took him deep to start the game…allowed an RBI single to first baseman Nick Pratto in the third inning, then retired 10 of the final 13 batters he faced, striking out the side in the fourth and sixth innings…was relieved by Jovani Moran to start the seventh inning with Minnesota leading 3-2…Brent Headrick blew a save opportunity by allowing a solo homer to Pratto in the top of the eighth, but the Twins’ offense scored five runs in the bottom of the eighth to win the series opener.

Allowed a leadoff homer in back-to-back starts, after Atlanta’s Ronald Acuña Jr. hit a leadoff homer off him in his previous outing; marked the first time a Twins’ pitcher has allowed a leadoff homer in consecutive starts since Kyle Gibson from July 22-28, 2016…Gibson will oppose Ryan in today’s game.

TWO STARTS AGO: Took the loss on June 27 at Atlanta in the Twins’ 6-2 defeat at Truist Park…pitched a career-low 3.0 innings, allowing six runs on a season-high nine hits (career-high-tying 5 HR), with no walks and five strikeouts…allowed three home runs and one triple in the first inning, yielding solo homers to right-fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. and catcher Sean Murphy and a two-run homer to third baseman Austin Riley; his four runs allowed in the first inning were the most he has allowed in the first in any start of his career…allowed back-to-back solo home runs to centerfielder Michael Harris II and Acuña Jr. in the second inning; marked the first time he has allowed back-to-back home runs in his career… pitched a scoreless third inning before being relieved by Oliver Ortega to start the fourth…Twins went 0-for-10 with runners in scoring position and dropped the middle game of the three-game series.

Tied his start on July 29, 2022 at San Diego for the most home runs he has allowed in his career…is one of three pitchers in Twins/Senators history (since 1961) to allow five home runs in a game (also, Carlos Silva on August 22, 2006 at Baltimore and Bert Blyleven on September 13, 1986 vs. Texas).

LEAGUE LEADER: Ryan enters today leading American League pitchers in several statistical cat- egories…here are his numbers through 17 starts and how they rank among qualified AL pitchers:

STATISTIC RYAN’S #’S AL RANK
WHIP……………………………………………………. 0.98 …………………………………………………………… 2nd
Strikeout-to-Walk Ratio………………………….. 7.13 …………………………………………………………… 2nd
Opponent OPS ………………………………………. .619 …………………………………………………………… 2nd
Walks-per-9.0 Innings……………………………. 1.40 ……………………………………………………………. 4th
WAR……………………………………………………… 2.4 …………………………………………………………….. 8th
FIP………………………………………………………. 3.36 ……………………………………………………………. 9th

GLASS HALF FULL: Through 17 starts this year, Ryan owns a 7.13 strikeout-to-walk ratio, the fourth-highest strikeout-to-walk ratio before the All-Star break among qualified pitchers in Twins history (since 1961)…also has a 0.98 WHIP, the sixth-best WHIP in club history before the All-Star break, and a 1.40 walks-per-9.0 innings ratio, tied for the 14th best among Twins pitchers prior to the break.

JOE VS. THE O’S: Facing Baltimore for the first time this season and third time in his career…in two previous starts against the Orioles, both in the 2022 season, Ryan went 0-0, 2.31 ERA (11.2 IP, 3 ER) with two walks and 10 strikeouts; Twins won both of his starts against Baltimore last season…most recently faced the Orioles on July 1, 2022 at Target Field, taking a no-decision in a 3-2 Minnesota win; pitched 7.0 innings, allowing one run on two hits, with one walk and seven strikeouts…his only other start against Baltimore was on May 3, 2022 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, also taking a no-decision in the Twins’ 7-2 victory (4.2 IP, 6 H, 2 R/ER, 1 BB, 3 K).

AL EAST BEAST: Ryan is undefeated in five starts against American League East division opponents this year, going 4-0 with five quality starts, a 2.06 ERA (35.0 IP, 8 ER), two walks, 33 strikeouts and a .197 (25-for-127) opponent batting average…the Twins have won each of his five starts against the AL East this year…in 10 career starts vs. the AL East, Ryan is 5-2, 3.06 ERA (61.2 IP, 21 ER) with nine walks and 61 strikeouts; Twins have gone 8-2 in those games.

HOME COOKING: In eight starts at Target Field this year, Ryan is 5-2 with a 2.73 ERA (52.2 IP, 16 ER), six walks, 60 strikeouts and a .193 (38-for-197) opponent batting average…Minnesota has gone 6-2 in his eight home starts, winning each of his last two outings at Target Field…his 0.84 WHIP at home this year is tied TEX’s Jacob deGrom for the third lowest in the American League (min. 5 home GS), trailing only SEA’s Bryce Miller (0.82) and BAL’s Tyler Wells (0.82); also owns a 10.00 strikeout-to-walk ratio at home, third best in the AL among pitchers with at least five home starts… is 3-3, 4.14 ERA (50.0 IP, 23 ER) with 10 walks and 54 strikeouts in nine road starts this season; Twins have gone 4-5 in his road starts.

Among pitchers with at least 10 career starts at Target Field, Ryan owns the lowest WHIP (0.96) and opponent batting average (.190), the third-lowest opponent OPS (.574), and the seventh-lowest ERA (3.23) since the park opened in 2010.

Ryan is 12-7, 3.23 ERA (150.1 IP, 54 ER) with 39 walks and 165 strikeouts in 26 career home starts…is 11-7, 3.93 ERA (126.0 IP, 55 ER) with 29 walks and 130 strikeouts in 23 road starts.

THE ARSENAL: Ryan has utilized a four-pitch mix in his first 17 starts of the 2023 season…has leaned on his four-seam fastball and split finger, combining to throw the two pitches 86.4 percent of the time this year…threw 20 sweepers in his last start on June 3 vs. Kansas City, the second-most sweepers he has thrown in a start in 2023 (24 on April 8 vs. Houston); also recorded three strikeouts with his sweeper in his last outing, his highest strikeout total with the sweeper in a start this season…here’s a look at Ryan’s repertoire, per Baseball Savant:

PITCH (AVG. MPH) PCT. (# OF PITCHES, VS. RHB/LHB) RESULTS
4-Seam Fastball (92.5)……….58.4% (923 pitches, 478/445).. .220 (46-for-209), 7 2B, 1 3B, 8 HR, 66 K Split Finger (83.8)………………28.0% (442 pitches, 174/268)….. .176 (24-for-136), 4 2B, 2 HR, 33 K Sweeper (79.0)…………………….8.6% (136 pitches, 103/33)………… .304 (7-for-23), 1 2B, 2 HR, 8 K Slider (82.6)………………………….5.1% (80 pitches, 65/15)………….. .444 (8-for-18), 1 2B, 2 HR, 6 K

Ryan’s split finger has accumulated a run value of -8 this season, the second-best run value on a splitter in the majors according to Baseball Savant, trailing only TOR’s Erik Swanson (-14)…also has a run value of -14 on his four-seam fastball, tied for the third-best run value on a four-seamer in baseball.

His .220 opponent batting average against his four-seam fastball is the eighth-lowest batting average vs. a four-seamer in baseball (min. 150 plate appearances)…his .176 opponent batting average against his splitter is the ninth-lowest batting average against a splitter in baseball (min. 50 plate appearances).