MLB Preview: Minnesota Twins (40-40) at Atlanta Braves (51-27)

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MINNESOTA TWINS NOTES:

THE TWINS: Have gone 2-2 through four games on their nine-game, 10-day road-trip, going 2-1 in Detroit over the weekend, followed by a loss in Atlanta last night…tonight, Minnesota will continue the trip with the second of three in Atlanta through tomorrow afternoon…after tomorrow’s game, the Twins will travel to Baltimore to enjoy an off-day on Thursday then play three games against the Orioles over the weekend…the Twins have gone 23-19 at home and 17-21 on the road.

The Twins are on game 15 of a 16 games in 16 days stretch, their next off-day being in Baltimore on Thursday…the Twins have 11 games in 13 days leading up to the All-Star Break (July 10-13).

SORRY MS. JACKSON: The Twins lost to the Braves last night at Truist Park by a score of 4-1… Sonny Gray (4-2) was the starter and loser, allowing three runs on seven hits in 6.2 innings pitched, with one walk and five strikeouts…the score was locked at 1-1 until a three-run seventh inning from Atlanta, highlighted by homers from Marcell Ozuna (solo) and Ronald Acuña Jr. (2-run)…the offense recorded six hits, walked twice and struck out 12 times…Joey Gallo provided the only offense for the Twins, hitting a solo home run in the second inning.

ROSTER MOVE: The Twins have placed right-handed pitcher Brock Stewart on the 15-day Injured List (retroactive to June 26) with right elbow soreness…Stewart has appeared in 25 games for the Twins this season, going 2-0, 0.70 ERA (25.2 IP, 2 ER), one save, seven holds, 11 walks, 35 strikeouts, a .172 (15-for-87) opponent batting average and a 12.3 strikeouts-per-9.0 innings pitched ratio…to replace Stewart on the 26-man roster, the Twins have recalled right-handed pitcher Oliver Ortega from Triple-A St. Paul…Ortega appeared in one game for the Twins on June 20 vs. Boston, allowing two runs on one hit in 1.0 inning pitched, with one walk and one strikeout…he has appeared in 17 games for the Saints this season, going 3-0 with a 2.22 ERA (24.1 IP, 6 ER), eight walks and 29 strikeouts.

CENTER CUT: The Twins are playing their 81st game today — which will mark the exact halfway point of the season…below are how the hitting and pitching numbers have compared through 81 games since 2018 (80 games this season):

AVG R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K OBP SLG OPS
2018 .239 348 662 173 11 84 332 279 677 .310 .400 .710
2019 .270 461 774 167 11 151 444 251 650 .337 .495 .831
2020 – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
2021 .245 375 672 140 10 116 348 266 698 .316 .431 .747
2022 .253 363 687 142 9 96 350 263 665 .322 .417 .739
2023 .232 341 624 129 8 104 324 266 819 .309 .401 .711
W L S IP H ER HR BB K ERA BAA
2018 35 46 17 733.1 726 364 101 282 730 4.47 .257
2019 52 29 24 733.0 684 320 96 228 699 3.93 .244
2020 – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –
2021 33 48 19 707.1 726 399 126 250 648 5.08 .264
2022 45 36 18 717.1 633 293 89 236 652 3.68 .234
2023 40 40 17 717.0 619 292 79 227 760 3.67 .231

STARTERS ONLY: Below is a look at the Twins starting staff through the first 80 games this season, compared to the first 80 last season: W L QS IP H ER HR/9.0 BB/9.0 K/9.0 ERA BAA OPS

2022 25 20 21 389.0 352 152 1.0 2.4 7.3 3.52 .238 .685
2023 24 24 39 451.2 398 185 1.0 2.3 9.6 3.69 .233 .666

TWINS-BRAVES: The Twins and Braves are playing each other in the regular season for the 20th, 21st and 22nd times in their history this week and first time since August 5-7, 2019 at Target Field…the Twins are 8-12 all-time against the Braves in the regular season, going 6-8 in Minnesota and 2-4 in Georgia (4-2 at the Metrodome, 2-6 at Target Field, 2-3 at Turner Field and 0-1 at Truist Park).

INTERLEAGUE INFO: The Twins have gone 10-11 in Interleague Play this season, going 1-2 at Miami, 1-2 vs. Washington, 2-1 vs. San Diego, 2-1 vs. Chicago-NL, 1-2 vs. Los Angeles-NL, 1-2 vs. San Francisco, 2-0 vs. Milwaukee and 0-1 at Atlanta…10 wins already passes their 2022 total of eight…after this series, the Twins’ next NL opponent will be the Cardinals for three games at Busch Stadium from August 1-3.

JOEY LONGBALLS: Joey Gallo hit his 13th home run last night, tying Byron Buxton for team lead…it also marked the 33rd of his career in Interleague Play…Gallo has an average exit velocity of 93.8 mph, ranking sixth best in the AL and ninth best in baseball…additionally, he ranks third in baseball in hard hit percentage at 59.1%…nine of Gallo’s 13 home runs have come off fastballs and four off breaking pitches.

ROYCE ROLLS: Royce Lewis has reached base safely in a career-best 10-straight games, hitting .371 (13-for-35) with one double, two home runs, five RBI, three walks, a .421 on-base percentage, a .571 slugging percentage and a .992 OPS in that span…in nine road games for the Twins this season, he is hitting .432 (16-for-37) with a 1.069 OPS.

Among all rookies in baseball with a minimum of 75 at-bats, Lewis ranks first in batting average (.333), second in runs created-per-27 (8.24), fourth in OPS+ 139.1), fifth in OPS (.863), sixth in slugging (.506), seventh in wOBA (.373), and 10th in on-base percentage (.357).

LAND OF 10,000 RAKES: The Twins have homered 104 times this season, tied for fourth most in the AL and tied for seventh most in baseball (Braves rank first with 141)…the Twins have 19 different players with a home run this season, the most in baseball…next are the Yankees and Brewers, both with 18…the most players to homer in one season for the Twins was 21, in 2004 and 2022.

RUN THE JULS: Last night, Edouard Julien recorded his second-straight multi-hit game and third in his last five starts…he now has 10 multi-hit games in 33 total chances…since being recalled from Triple-A St. Paul on June 10, Julien is hitting .306 (15-for-49) with six doubles, six walks, a .382 on-base percentage and an .810 OPS in 14 games.

Among all AL rookies with a minimum of 100 at-bats, he ranks fifth in slugging percentage (.441) and on-base percentage (.341).

DURANTULA: Jhoan Duran topped out at 103.0 mph on Sunday afternoon vs. Detroit, giving him 33 pitches this season at 103.0-or-faster… on the season, he has thrown 232 of his 483 pitches at 100-plus mph, trailing Jordan Hicks (321) for most in baseball…he has averaged 101.9 mph on his fastball this season (highest in MLB), 88.0 mph on his curveball (2nd highest in MLB) and 98.8 mph on his splitter (1st in MLB)…he earned his 11th save on Sunday and is one of three pitchers in baseball with at least 10 saves and an ERA under 1.50, joining Félix Bautista and Josh Hader.

STARTING PITCHER – JOE RYAN #41
2023: 8-4, 2.98 ERA CAREER: 23-13, 3.40 ERA

Making his 16th start and appearance of 2023 and his ninth road start of the year…also his 48th career start and appearance.

Facing Atlanta for the first time in his career; Braves will be the 19th team he has faced in the majors…is 5-7, 5.01 ERA (91.2 IP, 51 ER) in 18 previous starts vs. new opponents.

Owns most strikeouts (281) and second-most wins (23) through a pitcher’s first 47 career games in Twins history (since 1961).

A COMPLETE EXPERIENCE: Ryan pitched his first career complete-game shutout in his last start on June 22 vs. Boston at Target Field, as Minnesota won 6-0 in the series finale to split the four-game set…allowed just three hits and struck out nine batters without issuing a walk in 9.0 innings… retired 20 of the first 21 batters he faced, allowing only a fourth-inning single to designated hitter Justin Turner in that span…allowed one single in the seventh and eighth innings but stranded both runners…sent down the Red Sox in order in the ninth inning, retiring leftfielder Masataka Yoshida on a flyout to leftfield to finish the shutout.

Became the first Twins pitcher with a complete game since José Berríos on June 7, 2018 vs. Chicago-AL, ending a 724-game span between complete games for Minnesota…also became the first Twin with a complete-game shutout since Berríos blanked the Orioles 7-0 on April 1, 2018 in Baltimore.

Threw a career-high 112 pitches, surpassing his previous high of 110 on August 9, 2022 at Los Angeles-NL…also pitched into the ninth inning for the first time in his career, besting his 7.2-inning start on September 18, 2022 at Cleveland for his longest career outing by innings.

Snapped his career-long three-decision losing streak…also did not issue a walk in back-to-back starts for the first time in his career.

TWO STARTS AGO: Took the loss on June 16 vs. Detroit at Target Field in the Twins’ 7-1 defeat; pitched 7.0 innings, allowing a season-high six runs on seven hits (2 HR), with no walks and seven strike- outs…allowed five runs in the top of the third inning on four singles, a sacrifice fly by designated hitter Kerry Carpenter and a three-run homer by shortstop Javier Báez…allowed a solo home run to centerfielder Matt Vierling in the top of the fourth…needed only 35 pitches to toss 3.0 scoreless innings from the fifth through the seventh innings…was relieved by Josh Winder to start the top of the eighth with Minnesota trailing 6-1…Twins scored only one run as Detroit took the second game of the four-game series.

Allowed multiple homers for the second time this season (also, 2 on May 30 at Houston) and sixth time in his career; Twins have gone 0-6 when Ryan allows multiple homers in his career.

LEAGUE LEADER: Ryan enters today leading American League pitchers in several statistical categories…here are his numbers through 15 starts and how they rank among qualified AL pitchers:

STATISTIC RYAN’S #’S AL RANK
Opponent OPS ………………………………………. .548 ……………………………………………………………. 1st
WHIP……………………………………………………. 0.91 …………………………………………………………… 2nd
Strikeout-to-Walk Ratio………………………….. 6.67 …………………………………………………………… 2nd
Walks-per-9.0 Innings……………………………. 1.44 ……………………………………………………………. 3rd
FIP………………………………………………………. 2.75 ……………………………………………………………. 3rd
WAR……………………………………………………… 3.0 …………………………………………………………….. 4th
Home Runs-per-9.0 Innings……………………. 0.77 ……………………………………………………………. 4th

BRAND NEW BRAVES: Facing Atlanta for the first time in his career…the Braves will become the 19th team he has faced in the majors; he is 5-7, 5.01 ERA (91.2 IP, 51 ER) with 36 walks and 80 strikeouts in 18 previous starts when facing a new opponent…has never faced any current Atlanta hitters in his career…tonight also marks his first start against a National League East division opponent; the NL East is the only division he has yet to face since debuting in 2021.

RYAN ON THE ROAD: Making his team-leading ninth road start of the season tonight…has recorded seven quality starts in eight outings away from Target Field this year, going 3-2, 3.26 ERA (47.0 IP, 17 ER) with 10 walks and 49 strikeouts…tied with CHC’s Marcus Stroman and SEA’s George Kirby for the most quality starts on the road in baseball this season…Twins have gone 4-4 in his eight road starts, winning his last road start on June 10 at Toronto (9-4) after losing each of his previous four road starts…Ryan is seeking his first personal road win since April 19 at Boston (6.0 IP, 6 H, 3 R/ER, 1 HR, 1 BB, 3 K)…he is 5-2 with a 2.70 ERA (46.2 IP, 14 ER), five walks and 51 strikeouts in seven home starts in 2023.

Ryan is 11-6, 3.59 ERA (123.0 IP, 49 ER) with 29 walks and 125 strikeouts in 22 career road starts…is 12-7, 3.24 ERA (144.1 IP, 52 ER) with 38 walks and 156 strikeouts in 25 home starts.

Making his first career start at Truist Park tonight; Atlanta’s home ballpark will become the 16th ballpark he has pitched at since his debut in 2021…in 15 previous starts when pitching at a new ballpark, he is 5-6, 5.10 ERA (77.2 IP, 44 ER) with 19 walks and 81 strikeouts.

LEFT/RIGHT: Left-handed hitters are batting just .190 (31-for-163) with a .494 OPS and 37 strikeouts against Ryan this year…his .494 opponent OPS against lefties is the third-lowest in the American League this season (min. 8 GS)…right-handed hitters are hitting .214 (39-for-182) with a .596 OPS and 63 strikeouts, going just 1-for-13 (.077) with five strikeouts against Ryan in his last start on June 22 vs. Boston…his .203 (70-for-345) overall opponent batting average in 2023 ranks third in the American League and fourth in all of baseball, among qualified pitchers.

Over his career, Ryan has slightly better splits against left-handed hitters than righties, with lefties batting just .193 (92-for-477) with a .584 OPS since his debut in 2021…right-handed hitters are hitting .214 (109-for-509) with a .642 OPS off Ryan.

THE ARSENAL: Ryan has utilized a four-pitch mix in his first 15 starts of the 2023 season…has leaned on his four-seam fastball and split finger, combining to throw the two pitches 87.0 percent of the time this year…threw 75 four-seam fastballs in his last start on June 22 vs. Boston, the most four-seamers he has thrown in any start of his career; used the pitch 67.0 percent of the time (75/112), his second-highest usage rate with his four-seam fastball in any start in his career (68.2% on June 4 vs. Cleveland)…here’s a look at Ryan’s repertoire, per Baseball Savant:

PITCH (AVG. MPH) PCT. (# OF PITCHES, VS. RHB/LHB) RESULTS
4-Seam Fastball (92.5)………….59.4% (835 pitches, 441/394).. .200 (38-for-190), 7 2B, 4 HR, 61 K Split Finger (83.6)…………………27.6% (388 pitches, 147/241).. .158 (19-for-120), 4 2B, 1 HR, 28 K Sweeper (78.8)………………………..7.3% (102 pitches, 85/17)………. .313 (5-for-16), 1 2B, 1 HR, 4 K Slider (82.6)…………………………….5.7% (80 pitches, 65/15)……….. .444 (8-for-18), 1 2B, 2 HR, 6 K

Ryan’s four-seam fastball has accumulated a run value of -16 this season, the best run value on a four-seam fastball in the majors according to Baseball Savant…also has a run value of -8 on his splitter, the third-best run value on a splitter in baseball.

His .200 opponent batting average against his four-seam fastball is the third-lowest batting average vs. a four-seamer in baseball (min. 150 plate appearances), trailing only TEX’s Andrew Heaney (.188) and SEA’s Luis Castillo (.170).

ATLANTA BRAVES NOTES:

TONIGHT’S GAME: The Braves and Twins continue a three-game series tonight with what is the only scheduled meetings between the clubs this season…The two have not played since 2019.

  • Atlanta won the opener of Minnesota, 4-1, last night.
  • The Braves and Twins last played in 2019 at Target Field in Minneapolis, with Atlanta winning two-of-three…After dropping the opener of that series, the Braves outscored the Twins, 23-14, over the final two games.
  • Atlanta and Minnesota have played just 20 total games since the advent of interleague play in 1997, with the Braves going 12-8 (.600) all-time against the Twins…The two franchises squared off in the 1991 World Series, with Minnesota claiming the title in seven games.
  • This series marks Minnesota’s first ever visit to Truist Park…The Twins had not played here in Atlanta since a two-game set at Turner Field in 2016…They were one of just two teams yet to play here at Truist Park since the facility opened in 2017, along with Cleveland.
  • RH Bryce Elder has never faced Minnesota, nor has he pitched against a member of the Twins’ current roster…The 6-foot-2, 220-pound righthander has made 15 starts for Atlanta this season, going 5-1 with a 2.40 ERA (24 ER/90.0 IP), which paces the National League…Elder threw 7.0 scoreless innings in his last start, June 22 at Philadelphia, and has allowed just one run in his last 13.0 total innings.
  • RH Joe Ryan has also never faced Atlanta, nor has he ever pitched against a member of the Braves’ current roster…The 6-foot-1, 205-pound native of San Anselmo, CA, is 8-4 with a 2.98 ERA (31 ER/93.2 IP) in 15 starts for the Twins this season, including Minnesota’s first shutout in over 1,900 days in his last turn…Ryan blanked Boston for the Twins’ first shutout since José Berríos in 2018.

WIN: Atlanta beat Minnesota, 4-1, last night, scoring four unanswered runs after falling behind in the second inning…Ronald Acuña Jr. and Marcell Ozuna both
homered for the Braves.

  • The Braves improved to 10-13 (.435) when allowing the first run of the game, falling behind after a Joey Gallo solo home run in the second…Atlanta’s record when doing so is sixth-best in the majors, and just Arizona (18-22, .450) and Cincinnati (20-25, .444) are better in the N.L.
  • Spencer Strider started for the Braves and allowed just one run over 7.0 innings to earn the win… The victory moved him to 9-2 on the year, and his nine wins are tied with four others for most in the National League.
  • Atlanta improved to 11-1 (.917) in its last 12 home games dating to May 28 vs. Philadelphia…The Braves’ 25-15 (.625) record at home this season is best in the National League.

MORE MICHAEL HARRIS II: Last night’s three-hit effort for Michael Harris II marked his fifth game this season with at least three hits, and all five have come this month…In his last 18 games dating to June 7, he is batting .435/.444/.725 with a 1.169 OPS.

  • In those 18 games, he has raised his season average by 97 points (.163 to .260), his slugging by 173 points (.244 to .417) and his OPS by 241 points (.490 to .731)…He has fanned just six times in 69 at-bats over this span.
  • Harris II has compiled 1.4 fWAR dating to June 7, fifth most in the majors…Only Fernando Tatis Jr. (1.7), Shohei Ohtani (1.7), José Ramírez (1.6) and Luis Robert (1.4) have compiled more.
  • He has played to an .816 OPS in 37 games hitting ninth this season, the third-highest OPS from that spot in the batting order in baseball (min. 30 games)…Only the Angels’ Zach Neto (.926) and the Mets’ Francisco Alvarez (.841) have a higher mark.

HOME RUNS: Ronald Acuña Jr. and Marcell Ozuna homered for Atlanta last night and the Braves have a majors-most 49 home runs in June, with three games left to play this month.

  • The single-month franchise record for home runs is 56, done in June 2019…The franchise has just eight 50-homer months in history, including May of this season (51)…The club has never before hit 50 homers in consecutive months within a single season.
  • Atlanta leads all of baseball with 141 homers on the season, 17 more than any other club (Dodgers, 124)…The Braves are on pace for 293 homers on the season, which would shatter the single-season franchise record…The 2019 Braves hold the current record with 249.
  • At its current pace, Atlanta would break the current franchise record in just 138 games.
  • Just two teams in baseball history have collected 300 homers in a single season, with the Twins (307) and Yankees (306) both doing so in 2019…The Braves’ current pace of 293 homers would stand as the third most in a season in the history of baseball.
  • The Braves improved to 30-6 (.833) this season when hitting multiple home runs within a single-game, the best record among National League clubs…Tampa Bay (31-5, .861) is the only team with a higher winning percentage in such contests.

VS. THE CENTRAL: With last night’s win, Atlanta moved to 14-2 (.875) against teams from the Central divisions, going 8-1 (.889) against the N.L. Central and
6-1 (.857) versus the A.L. Central.

  • That 14-2 mark is the best in baseball versus the two divisions.
  • The Braves dropped one game to Cincinnati last weekend, and won two-of-three against Detroit earlier this month for their only two losses against the divisions.

Tonight’s Starting Pitcher – #55 Bryce Elder RHP
2023 Record: 5-1, 2.40 ERA • 2022 Record: 2-4, 3.17 ERA
vs. RHB: .231 (40-173), 3 HR • vs. LHB: .228 (36-158), 5 HR
Home: 2-1, 3.10 ERA (18 ER/52.1 IP) • Away: 3-0, 1.43 ERA (6 ER/37.2 IP)

Tonight’s Game

  • Set to make his first career start against Minnesota and 16th on the season.
  • Enters play with 20 consecutive outings of at least 5.0 innings pitched.
  • Joined Hall-of-Famer John Smoltz, Shelby Miller and Julio Teheran as the only Atlanta-era pitchers, age 24 or younger to post a 2.40 ERA or lower through their
    first 15 starts to a season.
  • Scattered three hits over 7.0 scoreless innings while fanning six hitters against Philadelphia in his last start.
  • His 2.40 ERA on the season is the lowest in the National League and third lowest in the major among qualifiers.
  • No Braves pitcher was won the ERA title since Greg Maddux (2.22) in 1998.
  • Elder’s 4.35 ERA with ROB is the second lowest in the NL among qualifiers.
  • Opponents are hitting .198 against him with runners on base, the second lowest rate in the National League (among QS).
  • His 47.0 LOB% is the fifth lowest in the National League (among QS).
  • His groundball rate of 57.0% of balls put in play is the fifth highest in the majors among qualified starters.
  • Has recorded an out on 64.4% of those grounders put in play, also the fifth rate in baseball among qualifiers.
  • The average launch angle of balls put in play against Elder is 5.90; fourth lowest in the majors and fourth in the NL.
  • Elder is pitching to a 1.58 ERA while holding opponents to a .212/.264/.316 line the first two times through the lineup.
  • Conversely, owns a 6.14 ERA and hitters have a line of .286/.362/.452 the third time through the order.
  • Is 6-2 with a 2.20 ERA over his last 20 games started after being recalled from Triple-A Gwinnett for the second time, dating to August 14, 2022.
  • His 2.20 ERA is the lowest among pitchers with at least 15 starts during that span.
  • In that stretch, Elder is averaging 6.0 innings pitched per outing, tied for the third highest rate in the National League (min. 15 starts).
  • He has six starts in his career of at least 6.0 innings without allowing a run, the most such games in Braves franchise history (since 1900) in a player’s first 25 starts…Irv Young (1905), Clif Curtis (1909-’10) and Ian Anderson (’20-21) each had five such starts.

2023 Recap

  • Elder has 19 games of at least 5.1 innings pitched in 24 career starts; tied with Tommy Hanson most in Atlanta franchise history through as many games started.
  • Elder’s 2.30 ERA through 20 career starts is the lowest in Atlanta franchise history to begin a career.
  • His 117.1 innings pitched through his first 20 games started were the most by an Atlanta player to begin their career since Julio Teheran in 2011-13.
  • His 30 earned runs allowed are also the fewest during that span.
  • Elder has held opponents to one run or less in nine games this season while pitching at least 5.0 frames in every outing.
  • His 13 appearances of at least 5.0 innings pitched while holding opponents to one run or less are the most through a player’s first 25 outings in Atlanta franchise history.