Thursday, November 21, 2024
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MLB Preview: Los Angeles Dodgers (36-27) at Philadelphia Phillies (30-32)

LOS ANGELES DODGERS NOTES:

TONIGHT’S STARTER at PHILLIES: RHP MICHAEL GROVE (0-2, 8.14 ERA in 5 GS)

2023 SEASON NOTES:

  • In his last start on June 3, he twirled 5.0 innings against the Yankees, allowing four hits, four runs and tied a career high with seven strikeouts while walking none…was his first start back since going on the IL April 21st with a right groin strain
  • Spun a career-high 5.2 innings on April 15th against the Cubs…allowed just one earned run on two hits with six strikeouts
  • Made his 2023 debut against the Rockies on April 3, where he hurled four innings, giving up three runs on two hits, two walks and punching out four
  • Allowed career-highs in runs (9) and hits (12) in his start against the D-Backs on April 9
  • Started six games during Spring Training, posting a 0-1 record with a 5.40 ERA (10 ER/16.2 IP) and 17 strikeouts against just three
    walks…produced a 1.03 WHIP
  • Named to his first Opening Day roster as a Major Leaguer after making his big league debut last season on May 15 against the Phillies

VS. PHILLIES:

  • Will face the The Fightin’ Phils the second time in his career…last faced the club on May 15, 2022 in his Major League debut, tossing 3.2 innings, allowing four hits, four unearned runs and three walks while striking out three
  • Holds a career record of 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA (0 ER/3.2 IP) in one career start against Philly

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES NOTES:

GAME #62 RECAP: The Phillies defeated the Detroit Tigers, 3-2, in walk-off fashion at Citizens Bank Park … Starter Zack Wheeler carried a no-hitter into the 8th inning and was five outs away before Tyler Nevin singled to right to break up the no-hit bid … Down 2-1 in the 9th, Bryce Harper led off with a double, Trea Turner walked, Bryson Stott singled, Brandon Marsh scored Harper on a sacrifice fly and Kody Clemens doubled to right to score Turner and secure the three-game sweep for the Phils.

LET THE GOOD VIBES ROLL: The Phillies have won five straight (6/3-current) which ties their longest winning streak of the year (also: 5/7-13) – a win tonight would mark their first six-game winning streak since Aug. 22-27, 2022 … The Phils are 17-10 in 27 games at Citizens Bank Park this year and their .630 winning percentage at home ranks 2nd in the National League (LAD, .667) and 4th in MLB, trailing only TB (.829), TEX (.700) and LAD … Through 27 games at CBP, the Phillies are averaging 38,734 in attendance per game which ranks 5th among all clubs in MLB behind only the Dodgers (47,916), Cardinals (39,968), Yankees (39,829) and Padres (39,206) … Of Philadelphia’s first 27 games at home, 13 have been sellouts (48%) and 18 have been over 35,000 (67%).

STARTING TO FIND IT: In their just completed three-game sweep of the Tigers, the Phillies starting rotation tossed 21.1 innings and did not allow an ER – they struck out 28 of the 76 batters they faced (36.8%) … Dating back to their final game in D.C. on June 4, the Phils staff has tossed at least 7.0 innings in four straight games (1 ER, 28.1 IP, 0.32 ERA) which marks their longest streak of at least 7.0 innings pitched since July 9-12, 2014 (Roberto Hernandez, David Buchanan, A.J. Burnett, Cole Hamels) … If Ranger Suarez goes at least 7.0 tonight, it would be the first five-game streak for the Phillies since August 2-6, 2011 (Kyle Kendrick, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Vance Worley, Hamels) … Additionally, in their three-game series against the Tigers, all three Phillies starting pitchers carried a no-hitter into the 5th inning (Nola, Walker, Wheeler) … The Phillies are just the seventh team in the Expansion Era (since 1961) to no-hit an opponent in the first four innings of three straight games within a single series, joining CLE (vs TB, 6/29-7/1/15), PIT (vs CHI, 6/7-9/13), LAD (vs ATL, 7/7-9/08), NYM (vs HOU, 4/28-30/92), NYM (vs SD, 7/19-21/79) and LAA (vs NYY, 4/30-5/2/63) … The Phillies starting rotation leads the National League with 6.2 fWAR this season which ranks 6th in MLB behind only MIN (7.4), SEA (7.2), TB (6.4), TEX (6.4) and HOU (6.2).

JUNE BLOOM: Over the last three seasons (2021-23), the Phillies are 36-22 in the month of June and their .621 winning percentage ranks 4th among all MLB clubs behind only BOS (.661), HOU (.639) and ATL (.639) … During that same time, the Phillies are 32-50 in the month of May and their .390 winning percentage during May ranks 27th out of 30 MLB clubs … Over the last two seasons (since 2022), the Phillies are 24-10 in June (.706 win %).

TURNING A CORNER: As laid out in the chart below, Trea Turner has seen most offensive metrics/stats improve from month to month this season – he has increased his average exit velocity on balls in play from 86.5 MPH in April to 96.0 MPH in June and he has cut down on his swing and miss rate from 34.4% in April to 24.2% in June … He has also more than doubled his hard-hit rate on balls in play from 30.8% in April to 63.6% in June … In the month of June, Turner ranks 6th in average exit velocity and 8th in hard hit rate among all qualified hitters in MLB.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE: Over his last two plus months and 248 plate appearances (since 4/4), Kyle Schwarber has posted a .789 OPS with 16 home runs and 45 walks to 71 strikeouts – in that span, Schwarber is running a .177 BABIP which ranks 128th out of the 128 MLB players with 200 PA in that stretch … Out of those same 128 players, Schwarber ranks 3rd with an 18.1% walk rate and T-3rd in home runs … Schwarber, who owns a career BABIP of .261, completed the month of May with the lowest BABIP recorded by a player with at least 100 plate appearances in a single month since at least 1901 (.065) – the only other MLB player since at least 1901 with a BABIP under .100 for a single month (min. 100 PA) was Gary Sheffield, who posted a .095 BABIP in September of 1999 for the Dodgers … Per Statcast, among all MLB players this year, Schwarber ranks in the 98th percentile in walk rate (17.0%), 91st percentile in barrel rate (15.1%), 90th percentile in average exit velocity (92.4 MPH) and 86th percentile in hard hit rate (48.9%).

TONIGHT’S STARTER – 98 RANGER SUÁREZ • LHP #55
2023: 1-2, 5.47 ERA Career: 26-17, 3.28 ERA

Williams … The Phils slugged their way to an 11-3 win over the Nationals on a beautiful day in the nation’s capital … J.T. Realmuto homered in the 2nd inning to put the Phils up 1-0 and Kyle Schwarber and Drew Ellis each had multi-homer games.

TONIGHT’S START:

  • Lucky 7’s: In his last start, Suarez tossed 7.0 innings for the first time since 8/17/22, in which he pitched 7.0 scoreless innings while only allowing 3 hits … He tossed 7.0 or more innings in 5 games last season and in those starts he posted a 2.04 ERA (8 ER, 35.1 IP) … All 5 of those starts came against NL teams and his first of the year came against the Dodgers on 5/14
  • Left In The Dust: Suarez has held the 21 LHH he has faced to a .158/.200/.263 slash line this season with 2 XBH (2 2B) … Among all left handed pitchers in the National League with at least 20 lefties faced, Suárez’s .158 OPP AVG ranks 11th (best: Gregory Soto, .065)
  • Trouble With the Curve: Suárez has thrown his curveball 82 times in 24.2 IP this season after only throwing it 198 times in 155.1 IP last year … He is holding batters to a .095 average (2-23) with his curveball and has struck out 9 batters with a whiff rate of 35%
  • Just Glovely: Ranger was selected as the 2022 Fielding Bible Award winner at pitcher … Suárez’s 9 defensive runs saved in 2022 were the most by any Phillies pitcher since 2002, when Fangraphs can track back to and most by any pitcher in MLB in 2022 by 3 (Taijuan Walker had 6) … He did not make an error in a career-high 44 chances over 155.1 IP and did not allow a stolen base
  • Start Your Engines: Since transitioning to a starter full-time on 8/2/21, Suárez is 14-11 with a 3.26 ERA (89 ER, 245.2 IP) in 46 regular season starts … His ERA in that span is T-10th-lowest among all NL starters with at least 230.0 IP (best: Max Fried, 2.18)

HOME:

  • 2023: 0-1, 11.57 ERA (9 ER, 7.0 IP) in 2 starts
  • Career: 14-7, 3.43 ERA (65 ER, 170.2 IP) in 57 games (25 starts)
  • 2022 Postseason: 1-0, SV, 1.59 ERA (1 ER, 5.2 IP) in 2 games (1 start)
Mikey Balhan Sports

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