Friday, October 18, 2024
Fantasy Guru - Baseball

MLB Preview: Cleveland Guardians (26-32) at Minnesota Twins (31-28)

CLEVELAND GUARDIANS NOTES:

12-HIT EFFORT PUSHES GUARDS TO VICTORY
The Guardians bounced back from losses in each of the first two games of this series with a 4-2 victory over the Minnesota Twins on Saturday night at Target Field…Guardians enter today seeking their third consecutive win in a series finale, which would also secure a winning road trip.

LOGAN ALLEN turned in yet another quality start to earn his third victory of the season (6.0IP, 7H, 2R-ER, 2BB, 4SO, HR, 95 pitches)…surrendered a lead-off homer to Jorge Polanco to start the bottom of the 1st and then a pair of doubles in the 5th to
Christian Vazquez and Donovan Solano that resulted in the Twins second tally…WILL BRENNAN matched a career-high with 3 RBI… followed 2nd-inning singles by ANDRÉS GIMÉNEZ and GABRIEL ARIAS with an RBI-groundout and then followed up another Arias single with a 2-run homer (3) off Sonny Gray (6.2IP, 10H, 3R-ER, 0BB, 2SO, HR, 90 pitches) in the 7th…STEVEN KWAN added a one-out solo homer (2) off Jorge López in the 9th…EMMANUEL CLASE followed a scoreless 7th by JAMES KARINCHAK and scoreless 8th by ENYEL DE LOS SANTOS with a perfect 15-pitch 9th for his MLB-leading 18th save.

Cleveland (26-32) sits in 3rd place in AL Central standings, 4.5 games behind 1st-place Minnesota (31-28) and 1.0 game behind 2nd-place Detroit (-3.5G, 26-30)…Guardians have dropped 26 of last 43 overall since starting year 9-6…Cleveland is 3-3 entering the finale of this 7-game road trip through Baltimore (2-1) & Minnesota (1-2); club has dropped 6 of 9 and 12 of last 17 road games (14-17 overall).

GOING FOR THE TWIN TIE-UP
Today’s contest marks the seventh of 13 meetings between the Guardians and Twins this season…after the Guards took 2 of 3 in Cleveland from May 5-7, the Twins head into today having won 2 of 3 in this series…Minnesota’s last 4+ game series win against Cleveland was September 6-9, 2021 when the Twins took 3 of 4 at Progressive Field…the last time the Guardians and Twins split a 4-game series was July 18-20, 2011 at Target Field when Cleveland won the first 2 contests 5-2 and 6-3, and Minnesota won the last two contests 2-1 and 7-5…since Target Field’s inception in 2010, the Clevelanders are 62-59 with a +46 run differential, including winning 6 of their last 9 contests at the park…each of the last 6 contests between the clubs has been decided by 2-or-fewer runs.

Since 2020, Cleveland is 27-27 when facing Minnesota…however, the Twins hold a +25 run differential, outscoring Cleveland 231-206 during that span…in the Terry Francona era, the Guards have claimed 7 of 10 season series against Minnesota, holding a 100-87 record against the Twins…Cleveland leads the all-time series, with a 1,186-1,043 (.532) record, totaling the most wins against the Twins/Senators franchise of any other MLB club.

In 24 career games against Minnesota, STEVEN KWAN is batting .316 (30-for-95) with a .409 OBP…in 12 games at Target Field he owns a .327 (16-for-49) average with two home runs… JOSÉ RAMÍREZ has played Minnesota 149 times in his career, hitting .277 (158-for-570) with 21 home runs and 72 RBI…owns a .300 average (87-for-290) at Target Field with 24 doubles, his highest total at any ballpark other than Progressive Field.

HOT IN CLEVELAND
In the last 5 games, ANDRÉS GIMÉNEZ (10-for-21, .476) and WILL BRENNAN (10-for-19, .526) are tied with Miami’s Luis Arraez (10-for-19, .526) for the most hits among MLB hitters… Brennan has raised his average from .204 to .250 over his 5-game hit streak…Texas’ Nathaniel Lowe is tied with Giménez, Brennan and Arraez for most singles (7) over that span…in their last 5 games, Brennan and Arraez are tied with an MLB-high .529 batting average (min. 15AB)…both Giménez and JOSH NAYLOR are T2nd in the AL/T4th in MLB with 3 doubles…Naylor’s 8 RBI in the last 5 contests rank T2nd in the AL/T3rd in the AL…in the last 10 games, STEVEN KWAN ranks T2nd in the AL/T4th in MLB with 10 runs scored.

JOSÉ RAMÍREZ enters today needing one extra-base hit to pass Ken Keltner (538) for 5th-most extra-base hits in Cleveland history…since 2018, Ramírez leads all MLB hitters with 349 extra-base hits.

Since May 26, Cleveland leads all MLB teams with 92 hits…their .284 batting average since then ranks 2nd in the AL and 5th in MLB, and their 23 doubles rank 2nd in the AL and T2nd in MLB.

TITO TERRIFIC
With last night’s victory, Terry Francona became the 15th manager in MLB history to reach 1,900 wins, passing Hall-of-Famer Bill McKechnie (1,899-1,724) for 15th-most wins in MLB history (Elias)…with 2 more victories, he will pass Gene Mauch (1,901- 2,037) for 14th-most wins…among active managers, he ranks 3rd, behind TEX’s Bruce Bochy (2,040-2,049) and HOU’s Dusty Baker (2,128-1,813).

Francona spent four years in Philadelphia from 1997-2000, going 285-363…he spent eight seasons with Boston, winning 2 World Series and owning a 744-552 record while boasting all but two seasons with 90+ wins…in his 11 years with Cleveland, he has gone 871-703, winning 4 AL Central titles and reaching the World Series in 2016.

WELCOME TO CLASE, I’M YOUR CLOSER, EMMANUEL
EMMANUEL CLASE’s 18 saves currently leads MLB, 3 ahead of Baltimore’s Felix Bautista…the 25-year-old right-hander has a 3.21 ERA (10ER/28.0IP) with 22 strikeouts…his 29 appearances this season ranks T1st in MLB with Miami’s Andrew Nardi…despite leading the league in saves, Clase has allowed 10ER this season after allowing just 11ER in 72.2IP (1.36 ERA) in 2022.

While Clase is holding right-handed batters to a .212 (11-for52) average this season, left-handed hitters own a .298 (17-for57) average with 9 RBI against him…for his career, he’s held lefthanded batters to a .205 (69-for-336) clip and right-handers to a .192 (73-for-380) mark.

Among relievers with 100.0+ IP since 2021, he ranks 1st with a 1.64 ERA (31ER/170.1IP), 177 appearances, 144 games finished, 0.32 HR/9, a .232 OBP allowed, a .485 OPS allowed, and 8.14 BR/9…he ranks 2nd with a 2.17 FIP, 14.1 P/IP, and 84 saves…his 0.90 WHIP and .253 SLG allowed ranks 3rd, while his 170.1IP rank 5th since 2021.

TWO CLOSE FOR COMFORT
The Guardians lead MLB this season with 39 games decided by 2-or-fewer-runs, holding a 19-20 record in such games…Cleveland has the most contests decided by 2-or-fewer-runs in the first 58 games of a season since the 2015 Seattle Mariners (42, 19-23)… the Guards finished last season with a 43-30 (.589) record in games decided by 2-runs-or-less, holding the 5th-best win percentage in MLB…the Guardians 39 contests decided by 2-or-fewer-runs are tied for the most through the first 58 games of a season in franchise history, also going 19-20 in 39 such contests in 1944.

TODAY’S STARTER – 24 TRISTON MCKENZIE RHP

MCKENZIE ON THE ROAD
W-L ERA G GS IP H R ER BB SO
2022 6-8 3.11 18 17 110.0 81 39 38 28 94
Career 11-14 3.74 35 34 192.2 139 81 80 63 183

MCKENZIE’S MLB CAREER
W-L ERA G GS IP H R ER BB SO
2022 11-11 2.96 31 30 191.1 138 65 63 44 190
Career 18-21 3.68 64 60 344.2 243 143 141 111 368

WELCOME BACK TMAC
The 25-year-old right-hander is scheduled to make his 2023 season debut after missing 58 games on the injured list due to a right teres major strain…made 3 rehab appearances at Triple-A Columbus, allowing 5 earned runs over 10.1 combined innings (4.35 ERA)…finished 2022 with an 11-11 record and 2.96 ERA (63ER/191.0IP).

LAST TIME OUT
He made 3 starts at Triple-A Columbus, most recently taking the mound on Tuesday…he worked 3.0 innings, allowing one earned run on a solo home run, throwing 43 pitches and 27 for strikes… his outing was cut short due to rain and reached 85 pitches by finishing his outing in the bullpen…his longest outing at Columbus was on May 25…surrendered 4 runs (earned) on 6 hits with 6 strikeouts and 2 walks across 4.1 innings.

TAKING ON THE TWINS
Will be making his 10th career start against the Twins and his 6th appearance at Target Field…he has a 2-5 record with a 5.65 ERA (32ER/51.0IP) in his 9 starts against Minnesota…his 5.65 ERA is his highest against any AL Central opponent…marks his 6th career start at Target Field where he’s 2-2 with a 4.71 ERA (15ER/28.2IP)…twirled 7.0-shutout innings in his previous outing at the park, a 6-4 victory on September 10, 2022.

This will be his 37th appearance and 34th start against an AL Central opponent…owns an 11-10 record with a 3.82 ERA (81ER/191.0IP) with a .193 opposing batting average (131-for680) against division foes…every AL division is hitting below the Mendoza Line against the right-hander…finished 2022 with a 5-4 record and 3.14 ERA (32ER/92.1IP) across 15 appearances (14 starts) against the division…opened up with 4 straight losses before winning 5 straight decisions over his final 9 divisional starts to finish the season.

MINNESOTA TWINS NOTES:

THE TWINS: The Twins have gone 2-1 through three games on their short four-game homestand with the Guardians, winning the first two followed by a loss last night…this afternoon, the Twins and Guards will play the four-game series finale…after today’s game, the Twins will travel to St. Petersburg to enjoy an off-day tomorrow before beginning a six-game road trip with three at Tampa Bay from Tuesday-Thursday, then three at Toronto over the weekend… the Twins have gone 18-13 at home and 13-15 on the road.

SONNY IS HUMAN AFTER ALL: The Twins lost to the Guardians last night by a score of 4-2 at Target Field…Sonny Gray (4-1) was the starter and loser, allowing three runs on a season-high 10 hits in 6.2 innings pitched…he allowed his first home run of the season, a two-run shot to Will Brennan in the seventh inning, proving to be the game winner…the Twins had eight hits, two from both Donovan Solano and Kyle Farmer…Jorge Polanco hit his fifth home run to lead off the game, the second of his career and fourth for a Twin this season.

RAISING THIELBAR: The Twins have returned left-handed pitcher Caleb Thielbar from his rehab assignment and reinstated him from the 15-day Injured List…Thielbar has missed the Twins’ last 29 games with a right oblique strain…he appeared in two games on rehab assignment with Triple-A St. Paul, going 1-0 with 2.0 scoreless innings, one hit allowed and three strikeouts…the 36-year-old has gone 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA (10.0 IP, 2 ER), two walks and 10 strikeouts in 11 appearances for the Twins this season…to make room for Thielbar on the 26-man roster, the Twins have placed right-handed pitcher Cole Sands on the 15-day Injured List (retroactive to June 1) with right shoulder impingement…Sands, who last pitched on May 30, has posted a 0.73 ERA (12.1 IP, 1 ER) with seven walks, 13 strikeouts and a .213 (10-for-47) opponent batting average across two stints with the Twins this season.

ON GUARD: The Twins are playing the Guardians for the seventh of 13 times in 2023…the Twins are 3-3 vs. the Guards this season, going 1-2 at Progressive Field from May 5-7 and 2-1 at Target Field this weekend…their next meeting will be for three games back at Target Field from August 28-30.

Since 2022, 20 of the 25 games have been decided by three runs-or-less and 12 by one run.

The Twins are 16-12 against the Guardians at Target Field since the start of 2020.

The Twins have hit 61 home runs against Cleveland pitching since the start of 2021, their most vs. any opponent in that span…next is Kansas City (56) and Chicago-AL (55).

Since 2019, Carlos Correa is hitting .304 (38-for-125) with four doubles, nine home runs, 17 RBI, 21 runs scored, 14 walks, a .379 on-base percentage and a .931 OPS in 33 games vs. Cleveland…however, he is just 1-for-15 this season with no walks.

Since 2016, Max Kepler’s 22 home runs vs. Cleveland are the most in baseball. AA win today would give the Twins their first series victory vs. the Guardians since taking two of three games from May 13-15, 2022 at Target Field…Twins have gone 0-5-0 in head-to-head series play against Cleveland since.

TOP JEFF: In Ryan Jeffers’ last nine games, he is hitting .350 (7-for-20) with two doubles, two home runs, five RBI, four walks, a .480 on-base percentage, a .750 slugging percentage and a 1.230 OPS…in his last five games, he is slashing .462/.563/.846 with four RBI.

SERIES STUFF: The Twins are seeking their ninth series victory this season and second consecutive after taking two of three in Houston earlier this week…that series win over the Astros snapped a four-game losing streak in series play…they are 8-9-1 in series play this season, going 6-3-0 at home and 2-6-1 on the road…their last series win at home came May 12-14 vs. the Cubs, taking two of three.

AK’S PAs AND ABs: Alex Kirilloff has reached base safely in 14 of his last 25 plate appearances and in 19 of his last 37 PAs…in his last nine games he has posted a .541 on-base percentage, drawing 10 walks while recording nine hits (1 HBP)…since being recalled from Triple-A St. Paul on May 5, Kirilloff has hit .304 (24-for-79) with four doubles, three home runs, nine RBI, 16 walks, a .439 on-base percentage and a .907 OPS in 26 games…among players with at least 75 PAs this season, his .439 OBP leads the American League.

RYAN KING: Joe Ryan ranks second in the AL in opponent OPS (.575), fourth in slugging percentage (.322), on-base percentage (.253) and fielding independent pitching (2.79), sixth in pitching WAR (2.1), ninth in ERA (2.77) and 10th in opponent batting average (.212).

He is 3-1, 1.67 ERA (37.2 IP, 7 ER) with four walks and 30 strikeouts in six career starts vs. the Guardians…the six starts and 37.2 innings pitched are his most vs. any opponent.

TWINS ML WEEKLYS: Triple-A outfielder Matt Wallner and left-handed pitcher Brent Headrick have been named Twins minor league Player and Pitcher of the Week.

Wallner, 25, hit .444 (8-for-18) with one double, three home runs, eight RBI and a 1.585 OPS in four games for the Saints.

Headrick, 25, pitched 5.0 innings of relief on Tuesday at Buffalo, allowing one run on five hits in 5.0 innings pitched with no walks and seven strikeouts.

STARTING PITCHER – JOE RYAN 41
2023: 7-2, 2.77 ERA CAREER: 22-11, 3.39 ERA

Making his 12th start and appearance of 2023 and his fifth home start of the year…also his 44th career start and appearance.

Facing Cleveland for the second time this season and seventh time in his career; is 3-1, 1.67 ERA (37.2 IP, 7 ER) with four walks and 30 strikeouts in six previous starts vs. the Guardians.

Owns most strikeouts (257) and second-most wins (22) through a pitcher’s first 43 career games in Twins history (since 1961).

LEAGUE LEADER: Ryan enters today leading American League pitchers in several statistical categories…here are his numbers through 11 starts and how they rank among qualified AL pitchers:

STATISTIC RYAN’S #’S AL RANK
Opponent OPS ………………………………………. .575 …………………………………………………………… 2nd
Wins………………………………………………………. 7 …………………………………………………………….T-2nd
Strikeout-to-Walk Ratio………………………….. 5.85 ……………………………………………………………. 4th
WAR……………………………………………………… 2.1 …………………………………………………………….. 6th
WHIP……………………………………………………. 1.00 …………………………………………………………. T-7th
Strikeouts………………………………………………. 76 …………………………………………………………… T-8th
ERA …………………………………………………….. 2.77 ……………………………………………………………..9th

CENTRAL HEATING: In 18 career starts vs. the American League Central division, Ryan is 12-1 with a 1.78 ERA (106.0 IP, 21 ER), 22 walks, 110 strikeouts and a .178 (67-for-377) opponent batting average…his 1.78 ERA is his lowest against any division in his career…among pitchers who have started at least 10 games against the AL Central, he owns the second-highest win percentage (Steven Matz, 6-0 in 14 games) and second-lowest ERA (Corbin Burnes, 1.44 ERA in 14 games) in baseball since the division was formed in 1994.

LAST TIME OUT: Took the loss on May 30 at Houston, a 5-1 Twins defeat; threw a season-low 4.0 innings, allowing a season-high five runs on four hits while issuing a season-high three walks and striking out six batters…allowed two home runs in the second inning, a solo homer to third baseman Alex Bregman and a two-run homer to centerfielder Chas McCormick; snapped a six-start streak without allowing a home run and marked his first time allowing multiple homers in a start this year…allowed two runs in the third inning on two hits, two walks and a sacrifice fly from first base- man José Abreu…was relieved by Cole Sands to start the bottom of the fifth; the bullpen tossed 4.0 scoreless innings but Minnesota’s offense managed only one run on six hits, falling in the middle game of the three-game series.

Marked his shortest start since also throwing 4.0 innings on September 24, 2022 vs. Los Angeles-AL…allowed five-or-more earned runs and multiple home runs for the first time since August 31, 2022 vs. Boston (also 5 ER, 2 HR).

TWO STARTS AGO: Earned the win in the Twins 7-1 victory on May 24 vs. San Francisco at Target Field; pitched 5.0 innings, allowing one run on six hits with two walks and four strikeouts…pitched opposite Anthony DeSclafani, who took the loss…allowed his only run in the second inning on an RBI single by third baseman Casey Schmitt…threw a season-high 107 pitches, tied with his only other career start vs. San Francisco on August 26, 2022 for the second most of his career, trailing only his 110 pitches at Los Angeles-NL on August 9, 2022…Twins bullpen fired 4.0 scoreless innings as Minnesota salvaged the finale of the three-game series.

CLEVELAND COMMANDER: Facing the Guardians for the second time this season and seventh time in his career…is 3-1, 1.67 ERA (37.2 IP, 7 ER) with four walks, 30 strikeouts and a .191 (26-for-136) opponent batting average in six previous starts vs. Cleveland…his 1.67 ERA vs. the Guardians is his third-lowest ERA against any opponent in his career, trailing only his 1.20 ERA in five starts vs. Kansas City and his 0.82 ERA in two starts against San Francisco…is 1-0, 2.65 ERA (17.0 IP, 5 ER) with two walks and 17 strikeouts in three previous starts vs. the Guardians at Target Field.

Last faced Cleveland on May 7 at Progressive Field, taking the loss in a 2-0 Twins defeat despite recording a quality start (6.0 IP, 2 R/ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 4 K).

ON TARGET: Ryan has won each of his first four starts at Target Field this season, going 4-0, 2.25 ERA (24.0 IP, 6 ER) with four walks and 31 strikeouts…the Twins are undefeated in his last six home starts, dating back to September 13, 2022, with Ryan going 5-0, 2.31 ERA (35.0 IP, 9 ER) with nine walks and 45 strikeouts in that span…his 2.31 ERA is the seventh-lowest home ERA in the American League during that stretch (min. 6 GS)…last lost a start at Target Field on August 31, 2022 vs. Boston (5.0 IP, 5 R/ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 8 K)…is 3-2, 3.07 ERA (41.0 IP, 14 ER) with nine walks and 45 strikeouts in seven road starts this year; Twins have gone 3-4 in his road starts, losing each of the last four.

Ryan has gone 11-5 with a 3.25 ERA (121.2 IP, 44 ER), 37 walks and 136 strikeouts in 22 career home starts…has similar numbers in 21 career road starts, going 11-6 with a 3.54 ERA (117.0 IP, 46 ER), 28 walks and 121 strikeouts.

LEFT/RIGHT: Left-handed hitters are batting just .198 (24-for-121) with a .529 OPS and 31 strikeouts against Ryan this year…his .529 opponent OPS against lefties ranks eighth in the American League this season (min. 30.0 IP)…right-handed hitters are hitting .226 (28-for-124) with a .620 OPS and 45 strikeouts…his .212 (52-for-245) overall opponent batting average in 2023 ranks 10th in the American League and 14th in baseball…over his career, Ryan has slightly better splits against left-handed hitters than righties, with lefties batting just .195 (85-for-435) with a .603 OPS since his debut in 2021…right-handed hitters are hitting .217 (98-for-451) with a .654 OPS off Ryan.

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