Friday, October 18, 2024
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MLB Preview: Philadelphia Phillies (26-32) at Washington Nationals (25-33)

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES NOTES:

GAME #58 RECAP: The Phillies defeated the Washington Nationals, 4-2, at Nationals Park in the nation’s capital … The Phillies bullpened it and received scoreless appearances from Matt Strahm (GS, 2.0 IP), Andrew Vasquez, Yunior Marte, Gregory Soto, Seranthony Dominguez and Craig Kimbrel … J.T. Realmuto broke out and went went 2-for-4 with 2 R, 2B, HR, RBI.

SEE THE BALL, HIT THE BALL, HARD: Yesterday, the Phillies put 14 balls in play over 95 MPH, which was tied for their fifth most hard-hit balls in a game this season out of the 58 games to date (also 5/20 vs CHI) … Philadelphia’s average exit velocity on balls in play yesterday was 93.8 MPH, their second highest average in a game this year (best: 95.2 MPH on 5/25 at ATL) … Of the Phils 10 best games for average exit velocity in 2023, five have come in the last 15 days (since 5/20) and in that span they rank 6th among all MLB clubs with an average exit velocity of 90.1 MPH (best: ATL, 91.7 MPH) … The Phillies have put 26 balls over 95 MPH in play during this series with WSH which has already eclipsed their total of 22 against the Mets at Citi Field this week.

NATITUDE PROBLEM: Since 2020, the Phillies are 37-13 (.740 win%) in 50 games against the Nats with a +104 run differential (313-209) – it marks their most wins in a 50-game span against any opponent since June 2009-August 2016 against the Padres (also 37-13) … Philadelphia’s .740 winning percentage against the Nats since 2020 ranks 1st among all major league teams against any single opponent in that span (min. 50 G) … Since July 29, 2021 (game 2), the Phillies have won 25 of their last 29 games against Washington (.862 win %) and with a win today, they would secure their most wins in a 30-game span against any opponent since 1887-1889 when they took 26 of 30 against the Indianapolis Hoosiers (h/t Elias) … The Phillies haven’t lost a series to the Nationals since June 22-23, 2021 at CBP (0-2) and they haven’t lost a series in the nation’s capital since Sept. 21-23, 2020 (1-3).

BULLISH ON THE PEN: Since April 16, the Phillies bullpen has the lowest ERA in MLB at 2.75 (48 ER, 157.1 IP) … Philadelphia’s bullpen has faced 663 batters during this stretch and limited them to a .224/.297/.333 slash line with a .634 OPS that ranks 2nd in MLB behind only SD .597) … They have allowed only 11 home runs since April 16 (43 G) which is tied for the fewest of any MLB relief corps (also: HOU) … Per Statcast, since April 16, the Phillies bullpen is running the lowest hard-hit rate of any bullpen in MLB (31.9%) with the lowest average exit velocity on balls in play (87.2 MPH).

DAY ‘N’ NITE: The Phillies are 16-11 in day games this year and their .593 winning percentage ranks 2nd in the National League (best: ARI, .636) and 6th in MLB … During night games, the Phillies are 10-21 with a .323 winning % that ranks 15th in the NL and 28th in MLB … Last season, the Phillies went 25-28 in day games (.472 win %) and 62-47 in night games (.569 win %) … In April and May last year, the Phillies were 15-21 in night games before going 48-26 the rest of the way under the lights (.649 win %).

CASTY’S BACK, TELL A FRIEND: Phils right fielder Nick Castellanos has gotten ahead 1-0 in 83 plate appearances this season – after taking ball one, Castellanos is slashing .452/.518/.726 with a 1.244 OPS that ranks 3rd out of 225 qualified players in MLB this year … He has 13 extra-base hits (9 2B, 3B, 3 HR) after getting ahead 1-0 … Last season, Castellanos got ahead 1-0 in 174 plate appearances and tallied only 10 extra-base hits as he slashed .197/.276/.299 with a .575 OPS that ranked 201st out of 203 qualified hitters.

RIPPING HEATERS: Nick Castellanos is hitting .453 with a .679 SLG against the 234 four seam fastballs he has faced this season and 64.3% of the four seamers he has put in play have been 95+ MPH off the bat … Overall, Castellanos has increased his hard hit rate on all pitches from 35.1% last season to 43.5% entering play today – his +8.4% spike in hard hit rate ranks 18th among all players from 2022 to 2023.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE: Over his last two months and 230 plate appearances (since 4/4), Kyle Schwarber has posted a .748 OPS with 13 home runs and 40 walks to 66 strikeouts – in that span, Schwarber is running a .185 BABIP which ranks 99th out of the 99 MLB players with 200 PA in that stretch (Max Muncy ranks 98th with a .198 BABIP, 13 points higher than Schwarber) … Out of those same 99 players, Schwarber ranks 3rd with a 17.4% walk rate, trailing only Juan Soto (22.1%) and Adley Rutschman (17.9%) … Schwarber, who owns a career BABIP of .262, completed the month of May with the lowest BABIP recorded by a player with at least 100 plate appearances in a single month since at least 1901 (.065) – the only other MLB player since at least 1901 with a BABIP under .100 for a single month (min. 100 PA) was Gary Sheffield, who posted a .095 BABIP in September of 1999 for the Dodgers … Friday night, Schwarber scored the 500th run of his career on a Nick Castellanos 2-run single and became the 61st active player in MLB to reach 500 runs scored (Phils have five of the 61: Schwarber, Realmuto, Turner, Castellanos, Harper).

THE SUMMER OF SCHWARB: Since 1901, 1,880 major league players have made at least 500 plate appearances in the month of June … Out of those 1,880, the top 10 in SLG consists of eight players enshrined in Cooperstown with the other two being Mike Trout and Kyle Schwarber … Lou Gehrig ranks 1st (.739 SLG), Babe Ruth 2nd (.709), Larry Walker 3rd (.641), Ted Williams 4th (.635), Hank Greenberg 5th (.622), Jim Thome 6th (.616), Jimmie Foxx 7th (.615), Trout 8th (.608), Rogers Hornsby 9th (.603) and Schwarber 10th (.597) … Schwarber has 47 home runs in 472 career at bats during June and his 10.04 AB/HR average ranks 1st among all players in MLB since at least 1901 (min. 500 PA) – Babe Ruth ranks 2nd at 10.64 … Schwarber also has a .341 isolated power (ISO) during the month of June for his career which ranks 3rd in MLB since at least 1901 (min. 500 PA), behind only Lou Gehrig (.361 ISO) and Babe Ruth (.357 ISO) … Last June, Schwarber hit 12 home runs in 27 games and slashed .372/.385/.680 with a 1.065 OPS in 122 plate appearances as he was named National League Player of the Month, his second consecutive POM Award in June (also 2021 with WSH) … Over the last three months of June combined, Schwarber has 28 home runs (59 total hits) and is slashing .272/.365/.691 in 57 games (252 PA).

TODAY’S STARTER – 8 RANGER SUÁREZ • LHP #55
2023: 0-2, 7.13 ERA Career: 25-17, 3.32 ERA

LAST START: 5/30 at NYM: 6.2 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 ER, HR, 2 BB, 4 SO …
Suárez vs Senga … The Phillies managed only two hits (both singles) and a walk on the night … They had the tying run at the plate in the 9th, but fell short.

TODAY’S START:

  • Beast in the East: Today marks Suárez’s 20th career start against NL East teams … In his starts against the division, he has 3.07 ERA (33 ER, 96.2 IP) … He has earned a quality start in 4 of his last 5 starts against the division and in that stretch has posted a 2.23 ERA (8 ER, 32.1)
  • Made You Look: Suárez’s last outing marked the 4th time in his career in which 4 or more of his strikeouts were the result of a called strike … Suárez joins Aaron Nola (twice) and Matt Strahm as the only Phillies pitchers to do so this year
  • Road Warrior: Suárez has a 3.38 ERA (20 ER, 53.1 IP) in his last 10 road starts … Since the start of last season, Suárez’s 3.31 ERA on the road ranks 9th among NL pitchers with at least 100.0 IP … In 9 of his last 10 road starts, Suárez has allowed 3 earned runs or fewer • Trouble With the Curve: Suárez has thrown his curveball 59 times in 17.2 IP this season after only throwing it 198 times in 155.1 IP last year … He is holding batters to a .133 average (2-15) with his curveball and has struck out 7 batters with a whiff rate of 40.7%
  • Just Glovely: Ranger was selected as the 2022 Fielding Bible Award winner at pitcher … Suárez’s 9 defensive runs saved in 2022 were the most by any Phillies pitcher since 2002, when Fangraphs can track back to and most by any pitcher in MLB in 2022 by 3 (Taijuan Walker had 6) … He did not make an error in a career-high 44 chances over 155.1 IP and did not allow a stolen base
  • Start Your Engines: Since transitioning to a starter full-time on 8/2/21, Suárez is 13-11 with a 3.32 ERA (88 ER, 238.2 IP) in 45 regular season starts … His ERA in that span is T-10th-lowest among all NL starters with at least 230.0 IP (best: Max Fried, 2.18)

ROAD:

  • 2023: 0-1, 4.22 ERA (5 ER, 10.2 IP) in 2 starts
  • 2022: 6-3, 3.20 ERA (32 ER, 90.0 IP) in 16 starts
  • Career: 11-10, SV, 3.22 ERA (63 ER, 176.0 IP) in 59 games (23 starts)

WASHINGTON NATIONALS NOTES:

No team release available.

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