MLB Preview: Minnesota Twins (28-27) at Houston Astros (32-22)

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MINNESOTA TWINS NOTES:

THE TWINS: After completing their six-game, seven-day homestand with a record of 2-4 (1-2 vs. the Giants and 1-2 vs. the Blue Jays), the Twins began their short three-game road trip in Houston by splitting the first two games against the Astros…tonight, the Twins will play the three-game series finale at Minute Maid Park…after tonight’s game, the Twins will travel back home for a quick four-game series/homestand against the Guardians from Thursday-Sunday… the Twins have gone 16-12 at Target Field and 12-15 on the road.

Twins are 3-6 in rubber games this season…they have lost their last three rubber games: May 17 at Los Angeles-NL, May 21 at Los Angeles-AL and May 28 vs. Toronto.

WE DIDN’T RECOGNIZE THAT JOE RYAN: The Twins lost to the Astros last night at Minute Maid Park by a score of 5-1…Joe Ryan (7-2) was the starter and loser, allowing a season-high five runs on four hits in a season-low 4.0 innings pitched, with three walks and six strikeouts…he allowed home runs to Alex Bregman (solo) and Chas McCormick (2-run), both in the second inning… Ryan entered the start having allowed just four homers all season and none in his previous six starts…the offense recorded just six hits, including two from Christian Vázquez, who drove in the Twins’ only run with a fifth-inning single…they also struck out 12 times, marking their ninth-straight game with double-digit strikeout totals and 13th time in their last 14 games.

SUMMER MADNESS: With one game remaining in May, below are the hitting (top) and pitching (bottom) comparisons through the first two months of the season:

AVG R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K OBP SLG OPS
MAR./APR. .237 134 228 44 6 38 128 89 275 .310 .413 .723
MAY .227 114 203 40 1 36 107 110 285 .319 .394 .713
W L S IP H R ER HR BB K ERA BAA
MAR./APR. 17 12 9 258.2 216 108 100 27 76 285 3.48 .223
MAY 11 15 3 236.1 200 100 91 26 92 258 3.47 .228

ADDITIONALLY: Last June, the Twins hit .261 (252-for-967) with 51 doubles, 40 home runs, 134 runs scored, a .320 on-base percentage, a .450 slugging percentage and a .770 OPS…pitchers went 13-15, 4.18 ERA (247.1 IP, 115 ER) with 84 walks, 200 strikeouts and a .237 opponent batting average. MAY IS FOR THE K’s: The Twins pitchers have 258 strikeouts this month, second most in May in club history with their most being 260 in 2019 (below)…their record for any month is 274, done in April.

YEAR K/9.0 STRIKEOUTS
2019 (29 games)………………………………………………….9.1 ………………………………………………………260
2023 (26 games) ………………………………………………..*9.8 ……………………………………………………..258
2022 (30 games)………………………………………………….8.6 ………………………………………………………256
2018 (28 games)………………………………………………….8.8 ………………………………………………………252

  • indicates club record for May

KIRILLOFF IS ON: Alex Kirilloff has reached base safely in eight of his last nine plate ap- pearances and in 13 of his last 19 PA…in his last four games he has posted a .667 on-base percentage, drawing seven walks and recording five hits…since being recalled from Triple-A St. Paul on May 5, Kirilloff has hit .303 (20-for-66) with three doubles, three home runs, seven RBI, 14 walks, a .439 on-base percentage and an .924 OPS in 22 games.

He is hitting .405 (15-for-37) with four extra-base hits off fastballs this season.

FREE BAGS: The Twins have walked 199 times this season, tied with Baltimore for the most in the AL…additionally, they have seen 3.93 pitches-per-plate appearance, third most in the AL, trailing Los Angeles (3.96) and Boston (3.93).

This month, they have drawn an AL-most 110 walks…Byron Buxton and Joey Gallo have each drawn 16 of those apiece, tied for sixth most in the AL in May…Carlos Correa and Alex Kirilloff have each drawn 14 walks, tied for 10th most in the AL in May.

ONE MORE TIME FOR HOUSTON: The Twins and Astros are playing each other today for the final time in 2023…the Twins are 38-44 all-time against the Astros in the regular season, including a record of 27-35 since Houston joined the American League in 2013.

The Twins are 3-2 vs. Houston this season…a win tonight and the Twins will secure the season series for the first time since 2021, when they went 4-3 vs. the Astros.

2022 and 2023 comparison vs. Houston in the right margin

SERIES STUFF: The Twins are seeking their eighth series victory this season and first since taking two of three from the Cubs from May 12-14…they entered this series having lost four-straight, their longest series loss streak since dropping five straight from April 8-28, 2021… they are 7-9-1 in series play this season, going 6-3-0 at home and 1-6-1 on the road (results to the right)…they are looking to win their first series over the Astros in Houston since taking three of four at Minute Maid Park from August 5-8, 2021.

ANALYST ANALYSIS: Fast facts on Bally Sports North pre- and in-game analysts Glen Perkins and Trevor Plouffe vs. Houston:

Glen Perkins pitched in three career games at Minute Maid Park, posting a 9.00 ERA (3.0 IP, 3 ER) with two saves in three chances…his final game against the Astros came at Target Field on August 28, 2015, pitching 1.0 scoreless inning, striking out Twins first base coach Hank Conger, inducing an infield pop out to Jake Marisnick and striking out Jose Altuve.

Trevor Plouffe had seven hits in his first eight at-bats in this ballpark on September 2 and 3, 2013, including a home run in both games…one of his three career-high four-hit games came here on September 3, 2013.

RECENT TRANSACTIONS
5/30 MiLB IF White traded to NYM in exchange for cash considerations

5/29 OF Kepler reinstated from 10-day IL
IF Lewis returned from rehab assignment, reinstated from 60-day IL
UTL Gordon transferred to 60-day IL
OF Garlick optioned to AAA
OF Wallner optioned to AAA

STARTING PITCHER – LOUIE VARLAND 37
2023: 2-1, 4.24 ERA CAREER: 3-3, 4.05 ERA

Making his seventh start of the season and fourth road start of 2023…also his 12th career start and appearance.

Facing Houston for the first time in his career…is 1-3, 4.12 ERA (39.1 IP, 18 ER), with nine walks and 32 strikeouts in seven career starts when facing an opponent for the first time.

Recalled from Triple-A St. Paul on May 3, taking the place of right-hander Tyler Mahle (Tommy John surgery) in the Twins rotation.

Selected by the Twins in the 15th round of the 2019 First-Year Player Draft out of Division II Concordia University in St. Paul, Minnesota.

LAST TIME OUT: Took his first loss of the season, despite recording a quality start, in the 3-1 Twins defeat on May 26 vs. Toronto at Target Field, opposite Kevin Gausman…pitched 6.0 innings and allowed three runs on seven hits, with no walks and three strikeouts…tossed 100 pitches for the first time in his career; 75 percent were strikes, the highest single-start strike percentage of his career… yielded all three runs in the top of the third inning via two home runs; a solo shot from centerfielder Kevin Kiermaier and a two-run home run by shortstop Bo Bichette (Bichette’s home run was just the second off Varland with men on base in his career)…relieved by Emilio Pagán in the seventh inning as the bullpen combined to pitch 3.0 scoreless innings.

Recorded his fourth quality start of the season, tied with Sonny Gray for the third most on the Twins staff (Joe Ryan – 8, Pablo López – 6).

Tied with Josh Winder for the third-most quality starts through a pitcher’s first 11 starts with the Twins since 1961, trailing Pablo López (6 in 2023) and Bob Miller (6 from 1968-69).

TWO STARTS AGO: Won in consecutive starts for the first time in his career, earning the victory on May 20 at Los Angeles-AL in the Twins 6-2 win…went 5.0-plus innings, allowed two runs on six hits, with one walk and four strikeouts…opposed left-hander Patrick Sandoval, who took the loss…allowed one run in the fourth inning on a RBI groundout by infielder Jared Walsh…allowed a solo home run to designated hitter Shohei Ohtani to lead off the sixth inning; was relieved by Jovani Moran after he allowed the first three batters to reach in the sixth…Twins bullpen pitched 4.0 scoreless innings and the offense recorded 12 hits in the victory, including three from infielder Kyle Farmer.

At 25 years old, became youngest Twins pitcher to win back-to-back starts since Randy Dobnak won two straight from September 20-25, 2019 at 24 years old.

Became the fourth Minnesota starter this year (also, Bailey Ober, Joe Ryan and Sonny Gray) to go undefeated in their first five starts of the season…marks the most starters in one season to go undefeated through their first five starts in Twins history (since 1961), surpassing the 1965 team which had three starters go undefeated through five starts (Camilo Pascual, Mudcat Grant and Dick Stigman).

BACK TO THE ROAD: Varland is making his fourth road start of the year tonight and first since May 20 vs. Los Angeles-AL, when he defeated the Angels (5.0 IP, 2 R/ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 4 K)…in his three road starts this season, he is 1-0, 5.17 ERA (15.2 IP, 9 ER) with four walks and 18 strikeouts, with the Twins going 2-1 in those three games…at home this year, he is 1-1, 3.44 ERA (18.1 IP, 7 ER) with three walks and 16 strikeouts…is 2-1, 4.35 ERA (31.0 IP, 15 ER) with seven walks and 33 strikeouts in six career starts at on the road…Minute Maid Park will become the sixth ballpark Varland has pitched in since his debut…in five previous starts when pitching in a new ballpark, he is 2-2, 4.65 ERA (26.0 IP, 11 ER) with six walks and 22 strikeouts.

LEFTIES VS. RIGHTIES: Through his first six starts this season, left-handed hitters are batting .267 (12-for-45) with 14 strikeouts against Varland, while righties are hitting .256 (23-for-90) with 20 strikeouts…while righties have posted a lower batting average (.259) against Varland in his career than lefties (.264), right-handed hitters have hit for more power (6 doubles, 1 triple, 10 home runs, .517 slugging percentage) than left-handed hitters (4 doubles, 1 triple, 3 home runs, .437 slugging percentage).

HOUSTON ASTROS NOTES:

TONIGHT’S TILT: The Astros and Twins will play the rubber game of their three-game series tonight with a pitching matchup of rookies in RHP Hunter Brown opposite RHP Louie Varland…this series is a matchup of the top two pitching staffs in the Majors, as the Astros enter tonight with the best team ERA in the Majors (3.16), while the Twins enter ranking second in that category (3.47).

ROOKIE RESPECT: According to WAR produced by STATS, tonight’s starter RHP Hunter Brown has been the most valuable rookie in the AL this season with a 1.7 WAR…he edges out 3B Josh Jung (1.6) and 1B Ryan Noda (1.6) in that category…the Astros have had a top five finisher in AL Rookie of the Year voting in four straight seasons: SS Jeremy Peña (5th in 2022), RHP Luis Garcia (2nd in 2021), RHP Cristian Javier (3rd in 2020) and LF Yordan Alvarez (1st in 2019).

ALL-STAR VOTING COMMENCES: Major League Baseball launched the All-Star Ballot earlier today for the 2023 MLB All-Star Game, which will be held on Tuesday, July 11 at T-Mobile Park in Seattle…like last season, the MLB All-Star Ballot once again features two phases of fan voting to determine the All-Star starters…beginning today, fans can cast their votes online and via mobile devices at MLB.com, Astros.com, the MLB App and the MLB Ballpark App until the voting period for Phase 1 concludes on June 22…during the initial voting period, fans can submit up to five ballots per 24-hour period.

RECENT ‘STROS: The Astros are 15-4 in their last 19 games to put them a season-high tying 10 games above .500…within this run, the Astros are 7-1 at home and 8-3 on the road.

GRINDERS: Tonight is the sixth day in a streak of 17 consecutive days with a game for the Astros…prior to this week, the most days the Astros had played in a row was seven, a streak that opened the season from March 30-April 5.

THRU THE TURNSTILES: The Astros surpassed the 1 million fan mark last night and have sold out Minute Maid Park for nine of their 27 home games…the Astros have welcomed 1,002,063 fans to Minute Maid Park this season for an average of 37,113 fans per game, which puts them on pace to top the 3 million mark for the season.

VS. MINNESOTA: The Astros and Twins are seeing each other for the second and final time of the 2023 regular season… the Twins won the previous series, two game to one, in chilly Minnesota from April 7-9…tonight’s starter, RHP Hunter Brown picked up the Astros only victory that series after tossing 7.0 innings of one-run ball.

LAST NIGHT’S W: The Astros hit two big homers and had another strong pitching performance in their 5-1 victory over the Twins last night…3B Alex Bregman (2×4, 2RBI) and CF Chas McCormick (1×4, 2RBI) provided the longballs, which both came in the 2nd inning to give the Astros an early lead… that was all the offense needed for RHP Brandon Bielak (1ER/5.2IP), who picked up his second win of the season.

LUCKY SEVENS: The Astros hit seven homers on Sunday at OAK, which tied the club record…they also hit seven homers on Sept. 9, 2000 at CHC and on Sept. 9, 2019 vs. OAK…incredibly, in the 55-year history of the Oakland Coliseum, this marked the first seven-homer game by a team in stadium history.

TONIGHT’S RING GIVEAWAY: Tonight, the Astros will give away a Cristian Javier World Series Replica Ring, presented by Jostens, to all fans in attendance…Javier’s replica ring is the sixth of 13 scheduled replica ring giveaways this season.

AT THE HELM: Astros skipper Dusty Baker, who’s in his 26th season as a manager and his fourth in Houston, has tied Hall of Famer Joe McCarthy for eighth place on Major League Baseball’s all-time managerial wins list…Baker has a great chance to make it up to seventh place on that list this season and has an outside chance to reach Sparky Anderson for sixth place.

ALL-TIME MANAGER WINS LIST

  1. Connie Mack 3731 6. Sparky Anderson 2194
  2. Tony La Russa 2859 7. Bucky Harris 2158
  3. John McGraw 2763 T8. Joe McCarthy 2125
  4. Bobby Cox 2504 T8. Dusty Baker 2125
  5. Joe Torre 2326 10. Walter Alston 2040

PITCHING IN: The Astros have the lowest team ERA (3.16) and have allowed the fewest runs (189) in the Majors…the Astros starters rank third the Majors in ERA (3.25) and have allowed one-or-fewer earned runs in eight of their last 11 games…also, the Astros bullpen ranks second in the Majors in ERA (3.02).

Lowest Team ERA – MLB Runs Allowed – MLB

  1. Houston: 3.16 1. Houston: 189
  2. Minnesota: 3.47 2. Minnesota: 208
  3. Texas: 3.69 3. Texas: 212

HECTOR’S HOT STREAK: RHP Hector Neris has not allowed a run in his last 17 appearances (15.1IP), which ranks as the longest scoreless appearance and innings streak of his career… the streak also ranks as the longest scoreless inning streak by an Astro this season and as the longest active streak in the AL.

BULLPEN WEAPON: RHP Phil Maton has been outstanding this season, allowing just 11 hits and two runs in his first 23 appearances (26.2 IP) for a 0.68 ERA and a .124 (11×89) opponent average…among AL relievers, he ranks first in ERA (0.68), first in WHIP (0.52) and second in opponent avg. (.124)…among MLB relievers, Maton has posted the lowest WHIP and trails only RHP Devin Williams in ERA (0.54).

HOT CORNER HEATER: 3B Alex Bregman, who’s on a six-game hitting streak, is hitting .313 (25×80) with three homers, 14 RBI and an .844 OPS in his last 20 games, dating back to May 8…he’s coupled that by going errorless in those 20 games.

SECOND TO NONE: SS Jeremy Peña has hit second in four straight games, with the Astros going 3-1 in those games, and has hit second nine times in 2023 (5-4)…over the last two years, including the postseason, the Astros are 58-13 when he hits second…Peña is hitting .324 (11×34) with five homers and a 1.263 OPS in his nine games hitting second this season.

AMERICAN LEAGUE RANKINGS: Among AL players, LF Yordan Alvarez ranks second in RBI (48), tied for second in homers (14), third in SLG (.590), third in OPS (.984) and fifth in OBP (.394)…3B Alex Bregman ranks tied for eighth in walks (28) and third in walk to strikeout ratio (1.12).

STUFF OF NIGHTMARES: LF Yordan Alvarez has been at his best in the big moments in his career, especially this season… he’s hitting .400 (16×40) with RISP, .500 (10×20) with RISP and two outs, .556 (5×9) with the bases loaded, and .385 (10×26) in close and late situations.

TONIGHT’S ASTROS STARTER: RHP HUNTER BROWN
LAST START – 5/26 AT OAK: allowed 2 runs on 4 hits and 1 walk with a career-high 10 strikeouts in 7.0 innings…recorded his 5th quality start of the season…also notched a career-high tying 7.0 innings for the 4th time this season.

ABOUT BROWN: rookie right-hander entered the season as the top prospect in the Astros system and one of the top pitching prospects in baseball…was ranked as the No. 28 prospect in baseball in Baseball America’s preseason top 100 rankings… was also rated as the No. 8 RHP prospect in MLB Pipeline’s preseason positional prospect rankings.

DIESEL: is averaging 92 mph with his slider, which is the hardest slider among all MLB pitchers, directly ahead of MIA RHP Sandy Alcantara (89.6 mph) and NYY RHP Gerrit Cole (89.2 mph) (among qualified pitchers)…is averaging 96 mph with his fastball, which is 4th-hardest among AL starters.

HISTORIC START: his 2.54 career ERA ranks 2nd in Astros history by a pitcher through his first 16 career apps. (min. 70 IP), trailing only RHP Bo McLaughlin (2.28 in 1976).

  • started his career 5-0 through his first 12 games (7 starts)…per Elias, was the first Astros pitcher to win their first 5 decisions since RHP Josh James won his first 7 decisions from 2018-19.

AMONG THE BEST: According to WAR produced by STATS, RHP Hunter Brown has been the most valuable rookie in the AL this season with a 1.7 WAR…he edges out TEX 3B Josh Jung (1.6) and OAK 1B Ryan Noda (1.6) in that category…the Astros have had a top five finisher in AL Rookie of the Year voting in four straight seasons: SS Jeremy Peña (5th in 2022), RHP Luis Garcia (2nd in 2021), RHP Cristian Javier (3rd in 2020) and LF Yordan Alvarez (1st in 2019).

TROUBLE WITH THE CURVE: opponents are hitting .205 (15×73) against his curveball this season, which makes up 28.9% of his pitches this season.

SOLID STREAK: made back-to-back starts on April 9 and April 15 in which he recorded at least 7.0 IP without allowing an ER…the last Astros pitcher to do so was LHP Scott Kazmir, who made 2 such starts in a row in 2015 (7/24/15-7/30/15).

VS. MIN: will face the Twins for the 2nd time in his career…made his only other start against Minnesota earlier this season on May 9…in that start, allowed 1 run (0 ER) on 2 hits with 2 walk and a 7 strikeouts in 7.0 innings.