MLB Preview: Cincinnati Reds (24-29) at Boston Red Sox (28-25)

CINCINNATI REDS NOTES:

RED HOTTEST

• In 3 games on this road trip the Reds are hitting .381 with 25 runs scored.
• The Reds won each of C Curt Casali’s last 8 starts and 9 of his last 10 starts
• Stuart Fairchild hit safely in 4 of his last 5 apps (.444).
• TJ Friedl is hitting .571 during a 4-game hitting streak, all 2-hit games.
• Luke Maile in his last 14 apps beginning 4/25 is hitting .294.
• Matt McLain is hitting .484 during a season-high 7-game hitting streak, the longest active streak on the team…is 9-for-15 in his last 3 games.
• Kevin Newman is hitting .571 during a 4-game hitting streak, all 2-hit games…in his last 16 apps is hitting .381.
• Nick Senzel has a 3-game hitting streak (.364), hit safely 6 of his last 7 apps (.346) and produced at least 1 RBI in 6 of his last 7 apps.
• Spencer Steer in his last 5 apps is 11-for-23 (.478) and hit safely in 10 of his last 11 apps (.396).
• Tyler Stephenson in his last 5 apps produced 3 multi-hit games (.304).
• Reds pitchers in the last 5 games are 4-1, 3.00.
• Reds starting pitchers in the last 5 games are 3-0, 2.93.
• Reds relievers in the last 42 games have posted a 3.30 ERA.
• RHP Alexis Díaz didn’t allow a run in any of his last 5 apps (5.2ip)…has converted all 12 save chances, the longest conversion streak of his career.
• RHP Buck Farmer in his last 16 apps has posted a 1.33 ERA.
• RHP Hunter Greene in his most recent start threw 6.0 no-hit innings.
• RHP Ben Lively in his 2 starts has posted a 3.09 ERA.
• RHP Luke Weaver in his last start threw 6.1 shutout innings (3 hits).
• LHP Alex Young in his last 7 apps has posted a 1.69 ERA.

RED HOTS

• Reds baserunners in 51 attempts have scored 50 runs from second base on singles…both lead the Major Leagues.
• In the first inning, Reds batters rank third among the Major League team leaders in hitting (.318, Atl .338) and hits (68; Atl 79, TB 74).
• The Reds entered today ranked 28th in the Major Leagues with 41 HR (Cle 30, Wsh 38), their fewest in 53 games since the 2001 team produced 40 HR through its first 53 games…from 4/18-4/25 did not produce a home run in a season-high 8 consecutive games, their longest team homerless streak since 1992.

TONIGHT’S GAME

• Is Game 1 of a 3-game series vs Zach Bamberger’s Red Sox and Game 4 (3-0) of a 6-game road trip to the two oldest ballparks in the Major Leagues, Chc’s Wrigley Field (1914) and Bos’ Fenway Park (1912).
• The Redlegs are coming off an off day here yesterday following their first series sweep of the Cubs since 7/2-7/4, 2021 (3g at Great American Ball Park) and their first series sweep at Wrigley Field since 8/12-8/14, 2013 (3g).

SERIES NOTES

• The Reds are visiting Fenway Park for the second straight season.
• The Sox lead the all-time series, 14-3, including a split of the home-and-home 2-game series last season.
• The Sox won 5 of the 7 series, tied the other 2 series and swept 4 series.
• The Reds’ 2-1 win on 5/31/22 was their first victory at Fenway Park since Game 7 of the 1975 World Series.
• In the June 2005 series at Fenway, the Reds were outscored by the Sox, 23-4, and hit .167 (15-90, 32k) while posting an 8.25era (.340ba)…gametime temperature on 6/13/05 was 91 humid degrees, dropped to a chilly 54 for Game 2 and then plummeted to a frigid 49 for the series finale.

INTERLEAGUE NOTES

• Before the interleague schedule expanded this season to include games vs all 15 American League teams, from 1997- 2022 the Redlegs went 188-247 vs the American League, at .432 the lowest interleague winning percentage of any Major League team…in 2022 the Reds went 12-8 vs AL teams (0-2 vs Cle, 2-0 at Cle, 1-2 at Tor, 1-1 at Bos, 3-0 vs TB, 2-1 at NYY, 2-1 vs Bal, 1-1 vs Bos)…last season’s was their first winning record vs the American League since 2013 (11-9)…in the 8 seasons between the 2013 & 2022 season series wins, the Reds went 61-99 vs AL teams (.381).

Tonight’s Pitcher – #59 Ben Lively, RHP

• Tonight is making his fifth appearance and third start for the Reds.
• Will be his second career appearance and start vs the Red Sox, his first since June 2017…never has faced any of the current Red Sox.
• Posted a 1.69 ERA in his 2 relief apps (5.1ip, 1er, .238baa) and a 3.09 ERA in his 2 starts (11.2ip, 4er, .167baa).
• Joined the Reds from Louisville on 5/9, when RHP Luis Cessa was designated for assignment.
• Made his Reds debut in the second inning of the 5-0 win on 5/11 vs NYM…relieved spot starter Derek Law and threw 3.0 scoreless innings, still tied for the longest appearance by a Reds reliever this season…was his first Major League appearance since 4/28/19 for KC vs LAA, his only appearance of that season, and his first win since his last appearance of the 2017 season (9/27/19 for Phi vs NYM).
• His start on 5/19 vs the Yankees was his first start in the Major Leagues since since 4/26/18 for Phi vs Ari.

BOSTON RED SOX NOTES:

STATE OF THE SOX: Tonight, the Red Sox begin a 7-game, 6-day homestand vs. CIN (3 games) and TB (4 games). They won 2 of 3 series on their 9-game, 11-day road trip to SD (2-1), LAA (0-3), and ARI (2-1)…The trip tied their longest of the season by days, and was their 2ndlongest by games (10 games in 11 days from 8/14-24). At 28-25 (.528), the Sox rank 4th in the AL East and are 3.0 games back from the AL’s 3rd Wild Card spot… They would rank no lower than 3rd in any other division, including 1st in the AL Central and T-1st in the NL Central.

AL WILD CARD STANDINGS
Rk. Team W-L Pct. GB

1. Baltimore 34-20 .630 +2.5
2. New York-AL 33-23 .589 0.5
3. Houston 31-22 .585 –

• Boston 28-25 .528 -3.0
• Los Angeles-AL 29-26 .527 -3.0

HOME COOKING: The Red Sox are 15-11 at Fenway Park, including 13-7 in their last 20-games at the venue. The Red Sox have hit 17 HR in their last 11 home games, despite not hitting a home run in 3 consecutive games from 5/13-15. The Sox have recorded 9+ hits in 11 of their last 12 home games and in 19 of their 26 home games.

RED SOX IN HOME GAMES
Stat MLB Rank
6.0 R/game 2nd
10.4 H/game 1st
4.0 XBH/game 1st
123 wRC+ T-3rd
Stat MLB Rank
.296 AVG 1st
.361 OBP 1st
.484 SLG 3rd
.845 OPS 2nd

SERIES BUSINESS: The Red Sox are 11-5-1 in series play, including 9-3-1 in their last 13 series and 6-2-1 in their last 9. They are 5-1-0 in their last 6 home series (3-1 vs. LAA, 2-1 vs. MIN, 2-1 vs. CLE, 4-0 vs. TOR, 0-3 vs. STL, 2-1 vs. SEA). The Red Sox are 8-0-0 in series when they win Game 1.

SOX AND REDS: The Red Sox are 14-3 (.824) all time against the Reds, their best record against any opponent and the 2nd-best record of any club vs. CIN (SEA: 15-3). The Sox are 6-1 vs. CIN at Fenway Park, their best record against any opponent at the venue. In 2022, the clubs split a 2-game series at Fenway Park from 5/31-6/1 and a 2-game series at Great American Ball Park from 9/20-21.

NATIONAL AFFAIRS: The Red Sox are in a stretch over which 17 of 23 games from 5/5-6/1 are against NL teams (2-1 at PHI, 1-1 at ATL, 0-3 vs. STL, 2-1 at SD, 2-1 at ARI, 3 games vs. CIN). The Red Sox are an MLB-best 297-206 (.590) all time in Interleague play.

GETTING BUSY: Yesterday was the Red Sox’ 5th day off in span of 22 days from 5/8-29…Their 5 days off in May are their most in any calendar month this season (excluding the All-Star Break). Starting tonight, the Sox will play 26 games in 27 days, through 6/25.

UPS AND DOWNS: The Red Sox (28-25, .528) own the 6th-best record in the AL, tied for 9th best in MLB. The Sox are 15-11 in their last 26 games, since 4/29…That span includes the Sox’ 2 longest winning streaks of the season (8 games, 4/29-5/6 and 4 games, 5/15-20) and 2 season-high-tying 4-game losing streaks (5/12-15 and 5/21-24). They are 6-9 in their last 15 games, beginning 5/12.

ON THE MEND: Christian Arroyo is on a rehab assignment with Triple-A Worcester…He has made 2 starts at 2nd base and 1 as the designated hitter, going 4-for-10 (2B, RBI, BB).

PITCHING & DEFENSE: Red Sox pitchers have allowed 4 ER or fewer in 10 of their last 11 games, posting a 3.06 ERA and .194 opponent AVG in that span (32 ER/94.0 IP, 67-for-345). Over that 11-game span, beginning 5/16, the Sox own the best opponent AVG in MLB and rank 5th in ERA. During that span, Sox relievers lead MLB in opp. AVG (.154), rank 2nd in WHIP (0.81), and 3rd in ERA (2.36). The Sox are on a season-high 6-game errorless streak.

RED SOX PITCHERS, LAST 11 GAMES
Role ERA IP ER H SO AVG WHIP
Starters 3.72 55.2 23 46 57 .220 1.20
Relievers 2.11 38.1 9 21 30 .154 0.81
Total 3.06 94.0 32 67 87 .194 1.04

START ME UP: Red Sox starting pitchers have allowed 2 runs or fewer over 5.0+ IP in 7 of their last 10 games…They have tossed at least 5.0 innings in 26 of their last 30 games. Beginning on 4/29 vs. CLE, pitchers in the Red Sox’ current starting rotation (Bello, Houck, Paxton, Sale, Whitlock) are 9-5 with a 3.64 ERA (43 ER/106.1 IP).

SLUGGING SOX: The Red Sox rank in MLB’s top 5 in runs scored (5th, 273), OBP (4th, .332), OPS (5th, .762), and doubles (2nd, 115). The Sox have hit 3 HR in their last 7 games, after hitting 7 HR in their previous 4 games. The Sox have been held to 0 XBH in 3 of their last 7
games, after recording 0 XBH in just 1 of their first 46.

RED SOX OFFENSIVE RANKINGS
Stat AL Rank
273 runs 3rd
475 hits 5th
115 doubles 1st
179 XBH 3rd
20.9 SO% 3rd
Stat AL Rank
.262 AVG 4th
.332 OBP 3rd
.430 SLG 3rd
.762 OPS 3rd
106 wRC+ T-4th

SOX STRIKEOUTS: Red Sox batters have struck out 423 times, 2nd fewest in the AL and 5th fewest in MLB. Red Sox batters struck out a season-high 15 times on Sunday in Arizona, their most since 8/9/22 vs. ATL (16). The Sox struck out 10+ times in each of their 9 games vs. ARI, ATL, and TB (11.4 SO/game) but have done so just 5 times in their other 44 games (7.3 SO/game).

RISPY BUSINESS: With runners in scoring position, the Red Sox rank 2nd in MLB in OBP (.370) and 4th in AVG (.289). With 2 outs and runners in scoring position, the Sox lead MLB in OBP (.395) and rank 4th in AVG (.292).

DON’T START WITH US: Starting pitchers have lasted fewer than 4.0 innings in 15 starts vs. BOS this season, most in MLB…No other team has more than 10. Opponent starters have completed 6.0 innings in in 8 of the Sox’ last 18 games, compared to 4 of their first 35. Starting pitchers are 18-19 with a 5.63 ERA vs. BOS. Against starting pitchers, the Sox rank 2nd in MLB with in AVG (.282) and OBP (.344), and 3rd in LG (.474) and OPS (.818).

RUNNIN’ RED SOX: The Red Sox rank 3rd in the AL and 5th in MLB in SB% (83.8%, 31-for-37). The Sox ranked 22nd in MLB with a 72.2 SB% in 2022.

TOUGH TEST: The Red Sox have won 19 games against opponents with a current winning percentage of .500 or better, tied with TB and NYY for most in MLB. The Red Sox are 19-16 (.543) against teams that currently have a .500 winning percentage or better. 4 of the Sox’ next 8 series, though 6/25, are against teams with a record currently below .500 (vs. CIN, at CLE, vs. COL, at CWS)…Their other 4 series during that span are vs. TB, at NYY, vs. NYY, and at MIN.

TONIGHT’S STARTER: 66 BRAYAN BELLO – RHP
W-L ERA G GS IP ER HR BB SO WHIP AVG
2023 3-2 4.08 7 7 35.1 16 7 12 37 1.44 .281
CAREER 5-10 4.47 20 18 92.2 46 8 39 92 1.65 .302

Allowed 2 runs (2 solo HR) over a career-high 7.0 IP Tuesday at LAA (6 H, 6 SO). Has allowed 8 ER over 28.0 IP in his last 5 starts (2.57 ERA), after giving up 8 ER over 7.1 IP in his first 2 starts (9.82 ERA). Has pitched at least 5.0 innings in each of his last 5 starts, beginning on 4/29. Allowed 1 run over 5.0 IP in his only start vs. CIN on 9/20/22 (W, 8 H, 2 BB, 5 SO). In his MLB career, opponents are 18-for-91 (.198) with 16 singles and 2 doubles against his changeup (8-for-34 with 14 SO in 2023). Only 8 of the 106 batted balls against him in 2023 have been barrelled (7.5%).