Saturday, October 19, 2024

MLB Preview: Boston Red Sox (12-12) at Baltimore Orioles (15-7)

BOSTON RED SOX NOTES:

STATE OF THE SOX: The Red Sox are 7-4 in their last 11 games, after beginning the season 5-8. The Sox rank 13th in MLB in run differential (+10). The Sox have played more games than any other AL team (24)…They are in a stretch of 19 days without an off day from 4/8-26 (9-8 so far), their longest stretch of the season…They will not play on more than 10 consecutive days again until 8/15-30 (16 G).

RED SOX THROUGH 24 GAMES
Stat 2022 2023
W-L 10-14 12-12
Runs scored 85 136
Home runs 15 32
AVG .231 .251
OPS .631 .761
Walks 53 85

SERIES BUSINESS: The Red Sox are 5-2-0 in series… Last season, they went 1-5-1 in their first 7 series and did not earn their 5th series win until 5/26 (began 4-7-2). The Sox have won each of their last 3 series, each against a team that entered Game 1 with at least a share of 1st place (3-1 vs. LAA, 2-1 vs. MIN, 2-1 at MIL). The Sox have won 3 consecutive series for the 1st time since winning 7 straight from 6/3-26/22.

COMEBACK KIDS: The Red Sox have come from behind in 9 of their 12 wins…They trailed by multiple runs in 5 of those 9 wins, including by 4 runs on 4/15 vs. LAA and by 6 runs on 4/1 vs. BAL. The Sox have won 4 games in which they trailed after 7 innings, already matching their 2023 total (4-64).

SLUGGING SOX: The Red Sox rank 3rd in MLB in runs scored (136)…In their last 11 games (beginning 4/14), they have averaged 5.9 runs per game with a .797 OPS. This is only the 7th time the Sox have hit at least 32 HR in their first 24 games (1st time since 2002). The Sox have homered in each of their last 6 games (11 HR total), their longest streak since July 2022 (7 straight from 7/14-24)…They have hit multiple HR in each of their last 3 games.

RED SOX OFFENSIVE RANKINGS
Stat AL Rank
136 R 3rd
32 HR 2nd
82 XBH 2nd
20.9 SO% T-2nd
Stat AL Rank
.251 AVG 5th
.329 OBP 6th
.432 SLG 3rd
.761 OPS 3rd

TEAM EFFORT: Four different players have recorded a go-ahead RBI in the 8th inning or later for the Red Sox: Adam Duvall (4/1 vs. BAL), Yu Chang (4/15 vs. LAA), Alex Verdugo (4/18 vs. MIN), and Masataka Yoshida (4/23 at MIL).

RED SOX INDIVIDUAL PERFORMANCES OF LATE
Player Span (Start Date) Stats
Justin Turner Last 14 G (4/11) .353 AVG, .980 OPS
Kiké Hernández Last 13 G (4/12) .320 AVG, 6 2B, 12 R
Jarren Duran Last 8 G (4/17) .333 AVG, .856 OPS, 4 2B
Triston Casas Last 7 G (4/17) .400 OBP, 9 BB, 7 R
Masataka Yoshida Last 5 G (4/20) .500 AVG, 2 HR, 9 RBI

OUT OF THE GATE: The Red Sox have scored in the 1st inning in 6 of their last 12 games (beginning 4/13 at TB)… They have not allowed a 1st-inning run in their last 5 games. The Sox have been out-scored in the 1st inning, 26-15… Their 9.38 ERA in the frame ranks 29th in the majors.

SOX & O’S: The Red Sox are 7-3 in their last 10 games against the Orioles, having won each of the last 3 series. Following this series, the Sox and Orioles will not face each other again until September…7 of the Sox’ final 22 games are scheduled to be against the O’s: 3 at Fenway Park (9/8-10) and 4 at Camden Yards (9/28-10/1).

WHAT A RELIEF: The Red Sox rank 9th in MLB with a 3.25 bullpen ERA, after ranking 26th in 2022 (4.59). In their last 11 games, Sox relievers have posted a 2.30 ERA (11 ER/43.0 IP) with 41 SO and 12 BB.

RED SOX PITCHERS WITH A RELIEF ERA OF 2.50 OR LOWER
Pitcher Relief ERA IP ER
Kenley Jansen 0.00 7.0 0
Kutter Crawford 0.79 11.1 1
Josh Winckowski 1.65 16.1 3
John Schreiber 2.45 11.0 3

CLOSING TIME: The Red Sox have a 1.50 ERA in the 8th and 9th innings (7 ER/42.0 IP), 2nd lowest in the majors behind only the Rays (7 ER/43.0 IP)…The Sox have outscored opponents in those innings, 31-8. The Sox are 8-0 when leading after 6 innings. The Red Sox are 1 of 2 teams in MLB without a blown save this season (6-for-6; also MIA-5-for-5).

MOST SAVES IN MLB HISTORY
Rk. Pitcher SV

  1. Mariano Rivera …..652
  2. Trevor Hoffman …..601
  3. Lee Smith …………..478
  4. Francisco Rodriguez..437
    Rk. Pitcher SV
  5. John Franco………..424
  6. Billy Wagner……….422
    T7. Kenley Jansen .. 396
    Craig Kimbrel ……..396

LEADING OFF: Alex Verdugo ranks in the AL’s top 10 in AVG (6th, .319), hits (T-2nd, 30), and runs (T-2nd, 19)…He leads qualified AL right fielders in outs above average (2). Verdugo ranks in MLB’s 90th percentile or better in expected AVG (97th), strikeout % (94th), whiff percentage (98th), outs above average (91st), and arm strength (96th).

FOREVER AND DEVERS: Rafael Devers leads the majors in total bases (58) and is tied for the lead in XBH (16)… He also leads the AL in HR (9) and ranks 4th in RBI (23). The only other Red Sox with 9+ HR and 23+ RBI through the team’s first 24 games are Manny Ramirez (2002), Mo Vaughn (1995), George Scott (1966), and Jimmie Foxx (1940).

DEVERS’ AMERICAN LEAGUE RANKINGS
Stat AL
9 HR ………………………..1st
23 RBI……………………… 4th
18 R……………………… T-5th
Stat AL
16 XBH………… T-1st in MLB
58 total bases …. 1st in MLB
.617 SLG …………………….. 3rd

REESE’S PIECES: In 50 games with the Red Sox since being acquired from the White Sox on 8/1/22, Reese McGuire has hit .343 with an .870 OPS (46-for-134, 3 HR). In the last 40 years (1984-2023), the only players with a higher AVG in their first 50 games as a member of the Red Sox are Manny Ramirez (.375), Bill Mueller (.362), and Sean Casey (.354) (min. 100 PA).

RUNNING RED SOX: The Red Sox had been 10-for-10 in stolen base attempts prior to getting thrown out in their lone attempt last night…It was their longest streak of successful attempts to begin a season since 2015 (12-for-12). The Orioles were 10-for-10 in stolen base attempts against the Sox in the first 2 games of 2023…Since then, opponents are 10-for-16 in 22 games vs. BOS (62.5%). Connor Wong has thrown out 5 of 9 runners attempting to steal (55.6%)…He leads AL catchers in pop time (1.87).

PINCH ME: The Red Sox have had 28 pinch-hit plate appearances, most in MLB (9-for-25, 1 BB, 2 CI)…They lead the majors in pinch hits (9) and rank 2nd in AVG (.360).

CLOSE SHAVES: Last night marked the Red Sox’ 9th 1-run game of the season (3-6), tied with the Orioles and Reds for 3rd most in the majors (CLE-13, LAA-10). The only other teams with as many as 6 losses by 1 run are CLE (7), CIN (7), and LAA (6).

TONIGHT’S STARTER: 28 COREY KLUBER – RHP

In 17 career starts vs. BAL, is 6-5 with a 4.26 ERA (47 ER/99.1 IP)…In 11 career starts at Camden Yards, is 5-3 with a 3.69 ERA (28 ER/68.1 IP). Allowed 7 runs over 5.0 IP on Wednesday vs. MIN (6 H, 2 BB, 4 SO, 2 HR)…Retired 9 of the 10 batters he faced in innings 3-5. Opponents are 5-for-25 (.200) this season in at-bats ending with his cutter and 1-for-8 (.125) with a single against his changeup. Is 50-35 with a 3.65 ERA (300 ER/740.1 IP) in 124 games (120 starts) following a loss. On 4/5 vs. PIT, made his 80th career start with 5.0+ IP and 1 or 0 runs allowed.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES NOTES:

BATTLE-BACK BIRDS: The Orioles overcame a 4-0 deficit after two and a half innings to defeat the Red Sox last night, 5-4, in the opener of the three-game set…Marked their eighth comeback win of the season…Have won all eight series openers to start the year, four at home and four on the road…Improved to 7-2 in one-run games.

99 PLATE VISION: O’s batters did not strike out last night, the first time since August 8, 2010 vs. Chicago-AL that they did not strike out in a game…According to Statcast, O’s batters swung and missed on just four pitches, tied for Baltimore’s fewest in the Statcast era (since 2015) with four whiffs on September 22, 2019 vs. Seattle; Statcast’s definition of a “swing-and-miss” includes swinging strikes, blocked swinging strikes, and foul tips…All nine starters recorded a hit in a game for the first time since August 6, 2022 vs. Pittsburgh.

WHAT’S TRENDING: The O’s have won seven consecutive games, nine of their last 10, and 11 of their last 13…Marks the team’s longest winning streak since a 10-game stretch from July 3-13, 2022…The 15-7 start to the season is tied for the third-best in team history (since 1954), done in 2005, 1997, and 1969, and trailing only 1966 and 1968 (16-6).

Entering today’s games, Baltimore owns the second-best record in the AL, trailing only Tampa Bay (20-3); the O’s .682 winning percentage is the third-best in MLB behind Tampa Bay (.870) and Pittsburgh (.696).

The Birds have won five straight games at Oriole Park for the first time since winning eight in a row from June 22-July 10, 2022.

The seven-game winning streak is the longest active stretch in the AL and tied with the Pirates for the longest active stretch in MLB.

MAKING THEIR PITCH: The Orioles have pitched to a 1.55 ERA (11 ER/64.0 IP) during the current seven-game winning streak…Starters have thrown to a 1.94 ERA (9 ER/41.2 IP), the best in the AL and second-best in MLB during the streak, while the bullpen has a 0.81 ERA (2 ER/22.1 IP), best in the AL and second-best in MLB, over that period…This comes after the team had a 5.36 ERA (79 ER/132.2 IP) in the first 15 games through April 15, sixth-worst in MLB in that time.

O’s hurlers did not allow a run in 34 consecutive innings from the second inning on April 16 at Chicago-AL through the eighth inning on April 21; according to the Elias Sports Bureau, it marked the sixth-longest streak in club history (since 1954) and the longest since the O’s tossed 45 straight scoreless frames to end the 1995 campaign…According to STATS, it was the longest streak by an AL team in a single season since Baltimore’s 45-inning streak in 1995.

Baltimore starting pitchers had a scoreless innings streak of 29.2 from the second inning on April 16 through the sixth inning on April 22…Marks the longest such stretch by Orioles starters in a single season since a 42.0-straight scoreless stretch to end 1995.

THE CANO SHOW: Yennier Cano earned his first career save last night after tossing a perfect ninth inning with two strikeouts…Has set down the first 20 hitters he has faced to begin the season, including five on Saturday night…He is the first O’s pitcher to do so since Fred Holdsworth set the team record (since 1954) by retiring the first 24 batters he faced in the 1976 campaign from July 17-24.

HOME SWEET HOME: The O’s continue their six-game homestand tonight with the second of three games against the Red Sox…The Orioles swept the series against the Tigers over the weekend…The O’s have gone 8-3 so far at home and their .727 home winning percentage ranks second in MLB (see chart at right)…Baltimore went 4-3 (.571) in their season-opening homestand against the Yankees (1-2) and Athletics (3-1) from April 7-13.

AGAINST THE RED SOX: Baltimore and Boston meet for three games this week, their second matchup this season after the teams squared off at Fenway Park for the opening series of the year from March 30 to April 2…After Wednesday, the O’s and Red Sox do not meet again until a three-game series September 8-10 in Boston before the teams wrap up the regular season with four games at Oriole Park from September 28 to October 1.

LOOKING AHEAD: Following the current homestand, the Birds embark on the longest road trip of the season with four games at Detroit from April 27-30, an off day on May 1, three games at Kansas City from May 2-4, and three games at Atlanta from May 5-7.

ON THE ATTACK: Baltimore is batting .247/.336/.415 (178-for-721) with 42 doubles, two triples, 25 home runs, 113 runs scored, 109 RBI, and 93 walks to start the season…The O’s rank sixth in the AL and 10th in MLB in runs scored after finishing 10th in the AL and 20th in MLB with 674 runs scored in 2022…The Birds rank among AL teams in walks (T-1st, 93), on-base percentage (3rd, .336), slugging percentage (4th, .415), OPS (4th, .750), and batting average (6th, .247).

The Orioles lead MLB with 4.10 pitches per plate appearance this season; the O’s have three players in the top seven in the AL in pitches per plate appearance:

Adley Rutschman (3rd, 4.36), Anthony Santander (6th, 4.294), and Adam Frazier (7th, 4.292); Gunnar Henderson (12th, 4.22) and Cedric Mullins (21st, 4.13) also rank in the top 21 in the AL.

NEED FOR SPEED: The O’s have 25 stolen bases, tied for second in MLB with the Pirates and trailing only the Guardians (28 SB) for the most in MLB this season…The 25 steals through the first 22 games of the year are the most in O’s history (since 1954) to open a campaign, though the team has not stolen base in the last five games since April 19 (1 CS)…The O’s have only been caught stealing four times for an 86.2 percent success rate…Cedric Mullins is tied with Chicago-NL’s Nico Hoerner for second in MLB with nine stolen bases, behind only Atlanta’s Ronald Acuña Jr. with 12, while Jorge Mateo is tied for second in the AL and fourth in MLB with eight steals…The duo’s 17 combined stolen bases are more than 17 MLB teams while four teams have eight-or-fewer steals to start 2023.

Mullins’ nine successful stolen bases are the most to begin a season by an Oriole since Adam Jones also swiped his first nine attempts in 2013; the last Orioles to steal 10-or-more bases successfully without being caught to begin a season are Brian Roberts and Corey Patterson, who each swiped their first 13 attempts, an O’s record, to begin 2006.

STARTING PITCHER – #39 KYLE BRADISH RHP
QUICK HITS: Scheduled to make his third start of the season, first at home, and sixth career start against the Red Sox tonight…Made 23 starts in his inaugural season with the Orioles in 2022…Went 4-7 with a 4.90 ERA (64 ER/117.2 IP) with 111 strikeouts to 46 walks…Was one of 13 O’s players (7 pitchers) to make their debut in 2022…Threw to Adley Rutschman in Rutschman’s debut on May 21 vs. Tampa Bay…Tossed 16.0 consecutive scoreless innings across four starts from August 26 to September 6…Acquired by the Orioles along with RHP Kyle Brnovich, RHP Zach Peek, and RHP Isaac Mattson from Los Angeles-AL in exchange for RHP Dylan Bundy on December 4, 2019…Originally drafted by the Angels in the fourth round of the 2018 First-Year Player Draft out of New Mexico State.

LAST TIME OUT: Earned his first win of the season on April 19 at Washington…Worked 6.0 scoreless innings on five hits with one walk and six strikeouts…Marked his first start since being placed on the 15- day Injured List (right foot contusion) on April 5 (retroactive to 4/4)… Threw 92 pitches, 59 strikes.

CAREER AGAINST BOSTON: Making his sixth career start against the Red Sox …Made his MLB debut against Boston on April 29, 2022 at Oriole Park; dealt the loss after allowing three runs (2 ER) on five hits (1 HR) with one walk and two strikeouts in 6.0 innings…Sports an 0-3 record with a 7.54 ERA (19 ER/22.2 IP) in his five career starts against Boston… Did not factor into the decision in his last outing against the Red Sox on September 27, 2022 at Fenway Park, surrendering seven runs on four hits (1 HR) with four walks, three strikeouts, and a hit batter.

CAREER AGAINST AL EAST: Making his 15th career start against the AL East…Went 0-7 with a 7.21 ERA (51 ER/63.2 IP) in 14 starts against division foes in 2022…Allowed three earned runs-or-fewer in seven of his final eight starts against the division…Did not factor into the decision in his last start against the AL East on October 2, 2022 at New York-AL after allowing an unearned run on three hits with five walks and five punchouts.

HOME COOKING: Making his first home start of the 2023 season tonight… Owned a 1-5 record with a 5.00 ERA (35 ER/63.0 IP) in 12 starts at Oriole Park in 2022…Earned his first career win at OPACY on September 22 vs. Houston, working a career-high 8.2 scoreless innings on two hits and 10 strikeouts…Has pitched to a 3.03 ERA (10 ER/29.2 IP) with 26 strikeouts in his last five home starts since August 9, 2022.

SAVING HIS BEST FOR THE BEST: Made 14 starts against teams that qualified for the 2022 playoffs in his debut season, going 4-4 with a 4.24 (36 ER/76.1 IP) ERA…The Orioles owned a 9-5 record in those games…He went 2-0 against Houston, tossing 8.0 scoreless innings on August 26 at Minute Maid Park and throwing another 8.2 shutout frames on September 22 at Oriole Park.

Mikey Balhan Sports

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